检索结果-内蒙古大学图书馆

Targeted sounding observations from geostationary satellite and impacts on high impact weather forecasts

Science China earth Sciences 2025年第4期68卷 963-976页

作者： Wei HAN Ruoying YIN Jun LI Yongzhu LIU Jincheng WANG Yonghui LI Xiaohao QIN Zhiqing ZHANG Xueshun SHEN CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Beijing100081China National Satellite Meteorological Center Beijing100081China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LaSW) Beijing100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408China

In monitoring and predicting high-impact weather(HIW)events,targeted atmospheric temperature and moisture sounding observations in sensitive areas are more valuable than conventional *** conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method and the linear singular vector(SV)method can be employed to identify these weather-sensitive areas for targeted *** observations can be conducted by using hyperspectral infrared sounders onboard geostationary weather *** Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS)onboard China's Fengyun(FY)-4geostationary satellite series can provide atmospheric sounding observations with a temporal resolution of up to 15 min over areas prone to active weather *** offers unprecedented opportunities for targeted observations,enabling flexible measurement modes that focus on weather-sensitive ***-temporal-resolution measurements not only reveal the threedimensional(3D)thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere,but also track moisture characteristics to capture the 3D dynamic ***,high-temporal-resolution measurements of clear radiances can enhance atmospheric sounding retrievals(used for HIW situation awareness)and data assimilation(used to improve numerical weather prediction).The four-dimensional variational(4D-Var)system facilitates the utilization of the high-temporal-resolution GIIRS targeted *** this study,we explore the applications of FY-4A and FY-4B GIIRS targeted observations and focus on data assimilation based on the 4DVar system for improving HIW *** typhoon cases are selected for impact ***,we compare CNOP and SV methods for identifying sensitive areas,and use the 4D-Var assimilation system of the Global Assimilation Forecasting system of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA-GFS)for real-time data *** results indicate hightemporal-resolution observations positively impact typhoon forecasts,with high

关键词： Targeted observations GIIRS Data assimilation High temporal resolution THORPEX

来源：评论

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Impact of Assimilation of FY-4A GIIRS Three-Dimensional Horizontal Wind Observations on Typhoon Forecasts

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期42卷 467-485页

作者： Hao WANG Wei HAN Jun LI Hao CHEN Ruoying YIN CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center(CEMC) China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China FYSIC National Satellite Meteorological CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory Nanjing 210008China Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationNanjing 210008China

Measurements from a hyperspectral infrared(HIR) sounder onboard a satellite in geostationary orbit not only provide atmospheric thermodynamic information,but also can be used to infer dynamic information with high temporal *** measurements from the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS),obtained with 15-min temporal resolution during Typhoon Maria(2018) and 30-min temporal resolution during Typhoon Lekima(2019),were used to derive three-dimensional(3D) horizontal winds by tracking the motion of atmospheric *** work focused on the impact of assimilation of 3D winds on typhoon analyses and forecasts using the operational NWP model of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA-MESO),and improved understanding of the potential benefits of assimilating dynamic information from geostationary sounder data with higher temporal *** standard deviation of the observations minus simulations revealed that the accuracy of the derived 3D winds with 15-min resolution was higher than that of derived winds with 30-min *** showed that the assimilation system can effectively absorb the information of the derived 3D winds,and that dynamic information from clear-sky areas can be transferred to typhoon *** typhoon prediction,assimilation of the derived 3D winds had greatest influence on the typhoon track,and less influence on the maximum wind *** of the derived 3D winds reduced the average track error by 17.4% for Typhoon Maria(2018) and by 3.5% for Typhoon Lekima(2019) during their entire 36-h forecasts initiated at different *** of GIIRS dynamic information can substantially improve forecasts of heavy precipitation by *** indicate that the assimilation of dynamic information from high-temporal-resolution geostationary HIR sounder data adds value for improved numerical weather prediction.

关键词： GIIRS 3D horizontal winds typhoon CMA-MESO

来源：评论

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Simulations of GaoFen-5 Directional Polarimetric Camera(DPC) Observations Using the Advanced Vector Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer Model

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期42卷 486-500页

作者： Yuchen XIE Ziqiang ZHU Fuzhong WENG Zhengqiang LI Xiuzhen HAN School of Remote Sensing&Geomatics Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Satellite Remote Sensing&Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth Aerospace Information Research InstituteChinese Academy of Sciences.Beijing 100101China National Satellite Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

In recent years,polarization remote sensing has garnered increasing attention,particularly within the realm of *** accurately simulate polarization information,the vector discrete-ordinate radiative transfer(VDISORT)model developed earlier by the community is further enhanced to an advanced version(referred to as A-VDISORT)through an improved ocean surface *** Fresnel reflection matrix,which includes wind-generated roughness and shading effects,is served by an ocean bidirectional reflection distribution function(BRDF).The simulation from AVDISORT is compared with SCIATRAN for a Rayleigh scattering atmosphere,and the influence of water-leaving radiance is analyzed by the PSTAR(Polarized system for Transfer of Atmospheric Radiation) *** GaoFen-5 Directional Polarimetric Camera(DPC) observations with polarization and multi-angle information,clear-sky pixel recognition over the ocean is first carried *** DPC reflectance of clear conditions is normalized and compared with the *** is shown that A-VDISORT has a high simulation accuracy with a bias of –*** difference between simulation and observation exhibits a standard normal probability distribution function.

关键词： vector radiative transfer equation A-VDISORT ocean BRDF GF-5 DPC

来源：评论

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

High-skill members in the subseasonal forecast ensemble of extreme cold events in East Asia

引用

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年

作者： Liu, Xinli Su, Jingzhi Peng, Yihao Liu, Xiaolei State Key Laboratory of Disaster Weather Science and Technology Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA(CEMC) Beijing China Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

Subseasonal forecasting of extreme events is crucial for early warning systems. However, the forecast skills for extreme events are limited. Taking the extreme cold events in January 2018 as a specific example, and analyzing the 34 extreme cold events in East Asia from 1998 to 2020, the authors evaluated the forecast skills of the ECMWF model ensemble members on subseasonal time scales. The results show that while the ensemble mean has limited skills for forecasting extreme cold events at the 3-week lead time, some individual members demonstrate high forecast skills. For most extreme cold events, there are >10 % of members among the total ensembles that can well predict the rapid temperature transitions at the 14-day lead time. This highlights the untapped potential of the ECMWF model to forecast extreme cold events on subseasonal time scales. High-skill ensemble members rely on accurate predictions of atmospheric circulation patterns (500-hPa geopotential height, mean sea level pressure) and key weather systems, including the Ural Blocking and Siberian High, that influence extreme cold events. 摘要极端事件次季节预报对防灾减灾保障社会经济安全具有重要意义. 本研究针对东亚地区极端低温事件的次季节预报难题, 通过分析1998–2020年34起东亚地区极端低温事件, 并重点关注2018年1月中国东北地区极端低温事件, 系统评估不同版本ECMWF模式集合成员之间的预报性能. 提前3周的模式集合平均预报性能存在局限, 但不同集合成员的预报技巧存在差异. 部分成员具有高预报技巧, 约10 %的高技巧成员能提前14天捕捉气温快速转折的过程. 研究指出集合成员是否具有高预报技巧依赖于对大气环流演变特征的合理预报. 该发现为极端冷事件次季节预报评估和后期订正提供了新视角, 凸显挖掘集合成员预报潜力的重要性, 并为提升次季节时间尺度预警能力提供了理论支撑. © 2025

关键词： Ensemble members Extreme cold event Forecast skill Subseasonal forecast

来源：评论

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Joint retrieval of atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles using spaceborne hyperspectral microwave radiometer

引用

GIScience and Remote Sensing 2025年第1期62卷

作者： Zhang, Chao He, Jieying Ma, Gang Zhang, Shengwei Zhang, Minjie Key Laboratory of Microwave Remote Sensing National Space Science Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA Beijing China Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological Administration Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

This paper explores the performance advantages of spaceborne hyperspectral microwave radiometers for jointly retrieving atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles under clear-sky conditions. It utilizes 4,440 channels at a spectral resolution of 10 MHz and 444 channels at a spectral resolution of 100 MHz across the 60 GHz, 118 GHz, and 183 GHz bands. The Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) was employed as the forward model to generate virtual high-spectral-resolution observational data, based on 10,745 marine profiles from the ECMWF-137 dataset. Channel selection eliminated about half of the channels with spectral resolutions of both 10 MHz and of 100 MHz while retaining 90 (Formula presented.) of the information content. The iterative retrieval model was constructed using the Optimal Estimation Method (OEM) for retrieval experiments, incorporating combinations of channels with 10 MHz and 100 MHz spectral resolutions, as well as those selected through an information entropy-based method and channels from MWTS (Micro-Wave Temperature Sounder) and MWHS (Micro-Wave Humidity Sounder), enabling high-accuracy retrieval of atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Specifically, the 10 MHz resolution extends the effective temperature sensing range from the surface to 70 km, with vertical resolution enhanced to 2–18 km for temperature and 1.6–6 km for humidity. Within the 0–35 km and 0–12 km altitude ranges, temperature retrieval errors are reduced by 0.5 K, and humidity retrieval errors are reduced by 0.00003 kg/kg for specific humidity and 2.4 (Formula presented.) for relative humidity, respectively. Theoretical analysis and quantitative retrieval demonstrate that hyperspectral microwave radiometer outperforms traditional MWTS + MWHS systems in terms of effective sensing range (temperature), vertical resolution, information content, and retrieval accuracy, while also highlighting the effectiveness of channel selection. © 2025 The Author(s). Published by

关键词： atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles channel selection Hyperspectral microwave radiometers joint physics retrieval (OEM)

来源：评论

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Evaluation and projection of wind energy density in China based on multi-model ensemble CMIP6 simulations

引用

Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2025年第6期156.0卷 1-15页

作者： Tao, Jian-Ning Hua, Wei Ma, Wen-Tong Lu, Qi-Feng School of Atmospheric Sciences/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province/Meteorological Disaster Prediction and Warning Engineering Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225 China Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Harbin Electric Corporation Wind Power Co. Ltd Xiangtan 411102 China Wenjiang National Climatology Observatory Chengdu 610225 China

The development of large-scale renewable energy sources, such as wind energy, is regarded as an important and effective means to achieve carbon neutrality. Accurate evaluation and projection of wind energy resources are therefore drawing widespread attention due to the rapid growth of the economy and increasing environmental concerns and demands. Thus far, most studies have assessed historical wind energy over China and projected its future changes based on simple multi-model ensemble (MME) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) projection. In this study, we use the improved genetic algorithm (GA) to reduce the uncertainties in reproducing the past historical near-surface wind speed (SWS) of China and further projected the future changes in wind power density (WPD) under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP;SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) by CMIP6 outputs. The results indicate that most of the global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP6 suitably represent the spatial structure and variability of the observational seasonal and annual mean SWS in China and its temporal variability, although the models largely deviate from the observations. The GA-based MME (GMME) better represents the SWS than other MME methods and exhibits the smallest biases in SWS simulation. Furthermore, the WPD of China is projected to decrease sharply throughout the 21st century under all three SSPs based on the GA, with the multi-model medians of WPD in the near-term (2024–2050), mid-term (2051–2080) and long-term (2081–2100) of all three SSPs being 31.50, 31.84, and 31.09 w·m^{− 2}, 30.71, 30.70, and 30.34 w·m^{− 2}, and 30.49, 29.99, and 28.81 w·m^{− 2}, respectively. In addition, in the near-term, the WPD is projected to decrease in most parts of China under all three SSPs, and the WPD decreases in most regions of China in the mid-term and long-term future under the SSP1-2.6 scenario;however, these values are projected to increase acro

关键词：

来源：评论

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Progress of MJO prediction at CMA from Phase I to Phase II of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal prediction Project

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第10期40卷 1799-1815页

作者： Junchen YAO Xiangwen LIU Tongwen WU Jinghui YAN Qiaoping LI Weihua JIE Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081China

As one of the participants in the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)prediction Project,the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)has adopted several model versions to participate in the S2S *** study evaluates the models’capability to simulate and predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).Three versions of the Beijing Climate center Climate system Model(BCC-CSM)are used to conduct historical simulations and re-forecast experiments(referred to as EXP1,EXP1-M,and EXP2,respectively).In simulating MJO characteristics,the newly-developed high-resolution BCC-CSM outperforms its *** terms of MJO prediction,the useful prediction skill of the MJO index is enhanced from 15 days in EXP1 to 22 days in EXP1-M,and further to 24 days in *** the first forecast week,the better initial condition in EXP2 largely contributes to the enhancement of MJO prediction ***,during forecast weeks 2–3,EXP2 shows little advantage compared with EXP1-M because the increased skill at MJO initial phases 6–7 is largely offset by the degraded skill at MJO initial phases 2–*** at initial phases 2–3,EXP1-M skillfully captures the wind field and Kelvin-wave response to MJO convection,leading to the highest prediction skill of the *** results reveal that,during the participation of the CMA models in the S2S Project,both the improved model initialization and updated model physics played positive roles in improving MJO *** efforts should focus on improving the model physics to better simulate MJO convection over the Maritime Continent and further improve MJO prediction at long lead times.

关键词： Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S) prediction skill improvement initial phase

来源：评论

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Data Assimilation of Ceilometer Aerosol Extinction Coefficient Profile Contributes to predictions of the Three-Dimensional Structures of Aerosols in East China

引用

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 2025年第9期130卷

作者： Gao, Lina Jiang, Lipeng Sun, Wei Yan, Peng Qi, Bing Ji, Chengli Tao, Fa Meteorological Observation Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Research Centre on Meteorological Observation Engineering Technology China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Beijing China Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau Hangzhou China

Ceilometer aerosol extinction coefficient (AExtC) profiles in Hangzhou city (HZ) in East China are assimilated from 1 to 31 December 2020 by applying the WRFDA-Chem model system. The analysis field obtained from data assimilation (DA) is set as the chemical initial condition (IC) for WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry) aerosol prediction. Observations, including ceilometer AExtC profiles in HZ, ground PM_2.5 in East China are adopted to verify the analysis and predictions. The RMSE (root mean square error between model and observation) improvements for ceilometer AExtC, and PM_2.5 persist for at least 18 forecast hours, with the mean RMSE decreasing by 13% and 8%, respectively. Moreover, the contributions of different observation systems (ceilometer profiles versus ground PM_2.5) to predicting three-dimensional (3D) aerosol structures are also investigated. The contribution of ceilometer DA is comparable to that of direct PM_2.5 DA to the PM_2.5 predictions in HZ and its environs, with RMSE decreased by 8% and 10%, respectively. In areas far from the assimilation stations' locations (HZ city), ceilometer DA showed an even better performance. The performance of ground PM_2.5 DA is inferior to that of the direct ceilometer DA experiment in predicting ceilometer AExtC vertical profiles. The joint assimilation of ceilometer and PM_2.5 data was conducted. Best 3D aerosol structure predictions are obtained through the joint DA of ceilometer profiles and ground PM_2.5. © 2025. The Author(s).

关键词： aerosol optical property aerosol vertical distribution ceilometer data assimilation WRF-Chem WRFDA

来源：评论

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Comparison of tropical cyclone thermal structures derived from ATMS and synthetic AMSU-A/MHS

引用

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 29-34页

作者： Wenyu Li Fuzhong Weng Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences BeijingChina Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA BeijingChina

热带气旋(TC)的暖心反映了其强度和变化.微波探测数据被广泛用于探测TC暖心,但观测到的TC暖心强度可能因仪器而异.本研究利用先进技术微波探测仪(ATMS)的过采样数据重采样至与先进微波探测仪(AMSU-A)一致的亮温,称为类AMSU数据.通过对... 详细信息

热带气旋(TC)的暖心反映了其强度和变化.微波探测数据被广泛用于探测TC暖心,但观测到的TC暖心强度可能因仪器而异.本研究利用先进技术微波探测仪(ATMS)的过采样数据重采样至与先进微波探测仪(AMSU-A)一致的亮温,称为类AMSU数据.通过对比发现,ATMS的观测更加细致,较好地刻画了TC眼区和云带.使用ATMS和类-AMSU数据反演多个TC的暖心发现,在250 hPa,使用ATMS数据反演的暖心强度比类-AMSU高约1-2K,并且其暖心结构更详细.

关键词：热带气旋暖心 ATMS AMSU-A 微波探测数据

来源：评论

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Classification analysis of prediction skill among ensemble members in MJO subseasonal predictions——based on the results of the CAMS-CSM subseasonal prediction system

引用

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 8-14页

作者： Yihao Peng Xiaolei Liu Jingzhi Su Xinli Liu State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijingChina Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA(CEMC) BeijingChina Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological Administration BeijingChina

由于模式误差和初始误差所致,次季节-季节预报技巧整体偏低.国际上多数模式都采用集合预报的方式来提高次季节预报的准确率.热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)作为次季节尺度可预报性的重要来源,其预测水平取决于模式性能和MJO事件本身的物理特性... 详细信息

由于模式误差和初始误差所致,次季节-季节预报技巧整体偏低.国际上多数模式都采用集合预报的方式来提高次季节预报的准确率.热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)作为次季节尺度可预报性的重要来源,其预测水平取决于模式性能和MJO事件本身的物理特性.根据中国气象科学研究院气候系统模式次季节预测系统的回报结果,结合不同类型MJO事件的特征,对模式集合成员间的预报技巧进行了分类和比较.在集合成员预报技巧普遍较高的一类MJO事件中,对流异常信号持续时间较长,强度较大,强对流异常中心主要位于印度洋区域,并逐渐东传至西太平洋.在集合成员预报技巧多数较差的MJO事件中,对流异常信号的强度最弱,维持时间最短.在集合成员预报技巧优劣参半的类别中,MJO往往持续时间较短,强度较低,在后续传播过程中,对流异常中心多停驻在海洋性大陆区域.

关键词：次季节-季节预测预报技巧热带大气季节内振荡

来源：评论

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：