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Near-surface wind speed changes in eastern China during 1970-2019 winter and its possible causes

Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第2期13卷 228-239页

作者： Xiao LI Qiao-Ping LI Yi-Hui DING Mei WANG Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Shanghai Energy Technology Development Co. LtdShanghai 200233China Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing 210041China

The changes in near-surface wind speed(NWS)have a crucial influence on the wind power industry,and previous studies have indicated that NWS on global and China has declined continuously for decades under global ***,recently,the decreasing trend of global NWS has slowed down and even showed a recovery *** the observation data of 831 weather stations of the China Meteorological Administration and the Japanese 55-year reanalysis data from 1970 to 2019,NWS changes in eastern China were analyzed and the possible influencing factors were *** show that winter NWS presented a decreasing trend from−0.29 m s^(−1) per decade(p<0.001)in 1970-1989 to−0.05 m s^(−1) per decade(p<0.01)in ***,NWS exhibited a significant upward trend of 0.18 m s^(−1) per decade(p<0.1)in 2011-2019,resulting in a 19.6%per decade recovery of the wind power generation.A possible cause is asymmetric changes of the sea level pressure and near-surface air temperature differences between the mid-high latitudes(40°-60°N,80°-120°E)and low latitudes(20°-40°N,110°-140°E)altered the horizontal air pressure ***,NWS changes were closely associated with the large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations(LOACs).NWS at 77.4%of the stations in eastern China shows significant correlation(p<0.05)with the East Asian winter monsoon index,besides,the inter/multidecadal variability of NWS was considerably correlated to four LOACs,including Arctic oscillation(AO),North Atlantic oscillation(NAO),Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO),and El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).The time-series reconstructed by a multiple linear regression model based on above five LOACs matches well with the *** variability of NWS were significantly correlated to AO(−0.45,p<0.01)and NAO(−0.28,p<0.05),while the correlation between NWS and ENSO was weak.

关键词： Near-surface wind speed Wind energy Wind speed recovery East Asian winter monsoon Large-scale ocean‒atmosphere circulations

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How to deal with inhomogeneous outputs and high dimensionality of neural network emulations of model physics in numerical climate and weather prediction models

How to deal with inhomogeneous outputs and high dimensionali...

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International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN)

作者： Vladimir M. Krasnopolsky Stephen J. Lord Shrinivas Moorthi Todd Spindler Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center University of Maryland MD USA Environmental Modeling Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction Camp Springs MD USA

In this paper we discuss our pilot study where the NN emulation technique developed previously for computing model radiation parameterizations was applied to the part of the NCEP GFS model physics, GBPHYS, that is complementary to the radiation parameterization. The results of the study showed that not all outputs of GBPHYS are emulated uniformly well with the original approach. Significant differences between the radiation parameterizations and GBPHYS block and challenges for the NN emulation approach due to these differences are demonstrated and discussed. Several approaches that will allow us to deal with the challenges and that will be used to complement the NN emulation approach for dealing with entire model physics are also introduced.

关键词： Predictive models Neural networks Emulation Numerical models Weather forecasting Computational modeling Physics computing Electromagnetic radiation Modems Atmospheric modeling

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Assimilation of FY-3D MWTS-Ⅱ Radiance with 3D Precipitation Detection and the Impacts on Typhoon Forecasts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第5期40卷 900-919页

作者： Luyao QIN Yaodeng CHEN Gang MA Fuzhong WENG Deming MENG Peng ZHANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites(LRCVES/CMA) National Satellite Meteorological CenterChina Meteorological Administration(NSMC/CMA)Beijing 100081China

Precipitation detection is an essential step in radiance assimilation because the uncertainties in precipitation would affect the radiative transfer calculation and observation *** traditional precipitation detection method for microwave only detects clouds and precipitation horizontally,without considering the three-dimensional distribution of *** precipitation detection from 2D to 3D is expected to bring more useful information to the data assimilation without using the all-sky *** this study,the 3D precipitation detection method is adopted to assimilate Microwave Temperature Sounder-2(MWTS-Ⅱ)onboard the Fengyun-3D,which can dynamically detect the channels above precipitating clouds by considering the near-real-time cloud *** data assimilation and forecasting experiments for Typhoons Lekima(2019)and Mitag(2019)are carried *** with the control experiment,the quantity of assimilated data with the 3D precipitation detection increases by approximately 23%.The quality of the additional MWTS-Ⅱradiance data is close to the clear-sky *** case studies show that the average root-mean-square errors(RMSE)of prognostic variables are reduced by 1.7%in the upper troposphere,leading to an average reduction of4.53%in typhoon track *** detailed diagnoses of Typhoon Lekima(2019)further show that the additional MWTS-Ⅱradiances brought by the 3D precipitation detection facilitate portraying a more reasonable circulation situation,thus providing more precise *** paper preliminarily proves that 3D precipitation detection has potential added value for increasing satellite data utilization and improving typhoon forecasts.

关键词： numerical weather prediction radiance assimilation microwave temperature sounding FY-3D MWTS-II precipitation detection

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Seamless prediction in China: A Review

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第8期40卷 1501-1520页

作者： Hong-Li REN Qing BAO Chenguang ZHOU Jie WU Li GAO Lin WANG Jieru MA Yao TANG Yangke LIU Yujun WANG Zuosen ZHAO State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Tibetan Plateau MeteorologyChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Ensemble Forecasting Division CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center(CEMC)Beijing 100081China School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China

Seamless prediction is a weather-climate integrated prediction covering multiple time scales that include days,weeks,months,seasons,years,and *** prediction can provide different industries with information such as weather conditions and climate variations from the next few days to years,which have important impacts on economic and social development and important reference value for short-,medium-and long-term decision-making and planning of the ***,seamless prediction has received widespread attention from the international scientific community *** Chinese scientists have also carried out relevant research,this paper reviews the research in China on developments and applications of seamless prediction methods and prediction systems in recent *** them,the main progress of seamless prediction methods studies is reviewed from four aspects:short-and medium-range weather forecasting,subseasonal-to-seasonal,seasonal-to-interannual,and decadal climate *** terms of development and application of seamless prediction systems,the main achievements made by meteorological operational departments,scientific institutes,and universities in China in recent years are ***,some of the issues in seamless prediction that need further study are discussed.

关键词： seamless prediction weather-climate integrated prediction prediction system

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Multimodel Ensemble Forecast of Global Horizontal Irradiance at PV Power Stations Based on Dynamic Variable Weight

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第3期30卷 327-336页

作者： YUAN Bin SHEN Yan-bo DENG Hua YANG Yang CHEN Qi-ying YE Dong MO Jing-yue YAO Jin-feng LIU Zong-hui Public Meteorological Service Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Key Laboratory of Energy Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510641 China Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 China Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Institute of Desert Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi 830002 China

In the present study,multimodel ensemble forecast experiments of the global horizontal irradiance(GHI)were conducted using the dynamic variable weight *** study was based on the forecasts of four numerical models,namely,the China Meteorological Administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy prediction system,the Mesoscale Weather Numerical prediction system of China Meteorological Administration,the China Meteorological Administration Regional Mesoscale Numerical prediction system-Guangdong,and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Solar,and observational data from four photovoltaic(PV)power stations in Yangjiang City,Guangdong *** results show that compared with those of the monthly optimal numerical model forecasts,the dynamic variable weight-based ensemble forecasts exhibited 0.97%-15.96%smaller values of the mean absolute error and 3.31%-18.40%lower values of the root mean square error(RMSE).However,the increase in the correlation coefficient was not ***,the multimodel ensemble mainly improved the performance of GHI forecasts below 700 W m^(-2),particularly below 400 W m^(-2),with RMSE reductions as high as 7.56%-28.28%.In contrast,the RMSE increased at GHI levels above 700 W m^(-2).As for the key period of PV power station output(02:00-07:00),the accuracy of GHI forecasts could be improved by the multimodel ensemble:the multimodel ensemble could effectively decrease the daily maximum absolute error(AE max)of GHI ***,with increasing forecasting difficulty under cloudy conditions,the multimodel ensemble,which yields data closer to the actual observations,could simulate GHI fluctuations more accurately.

关键词： GHI forecast multimodel ensemble dynamic variable weight PV power station

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The RTMA background - Hourly downscaling of RUC data to 5-km detail

The RTMA background - Hourly downscaling of RUC data to 5-km...

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87th AMS Annual Meeting

作者： Benjamin, Stan Brown, John M. Manikin, Geoff Mann, Greg NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division R/E/GS1 325 Broadway Boulder CO 80305 United States Environmental Modeling Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA Camp Springs MD United States National Weather Service White Lake MI United States

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RESEARCH ON THE INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITIES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THEIR IMPACTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2018年第4期24卷 395-420页

作者： HUANG Rong-hui HUANGFU Jing-liang WU Liang FENG Tao CHEN Guang-hua Center for Monsoon System Research (CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) College of Earth Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies Institute for Climate and Global Change ResearchSchool of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University

In this paper, we mainly summarize and review the progresses in recent climatological studies(by CMSR,IAP/CAS and some associated domestic and international institutions) on the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of monsoon troughs and their impacts on tropical cyclones and typhoons(TCs) geneses over the western North Pacific Ocean. The climatological characteristics of monsoon troughs and four types of circulation patterns favorable to TCs genesis over the western North Pacific Ocean in summer and autumn are given in this paper. It is also shown in this paper that the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean has obvious interannual and interdecadal variabilities. Especially, it is revealed in this paper that the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean influence the TCs genesis not only through the impact on distributions of the vorticity in the lower troposphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere, the water vapor in the mid-and lower troposphere and the vertical shear of wind fields between the upper and lower troposphere over the western North Pacific Ocean, but also through the dynamical effects of the transition between convectively coupled tropical waves and providing disturbance energy. Besides, some climatological problems associated with TCs activity over the western North Pacific Ocean that need to be studied further are also pointed out in this paper.

关键词： monsoon trough interannual variability interdecadal variability tropical cyclone typhoon

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A Machine Learning-Based Observation Operator for FY-4B GIIRS Brightness Temperatures Considering the Uncertainty of Label Data

Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Comput...

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Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation 2025年第1期2卷

作者： Yonghui Li Wei Han Wansuo Duan Zeting Li Hao Li State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology (LASW) Beijing China CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre (CEMC) China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing China Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Incubation Institute Fudan University Shanghai China Shanghai Academy of Artificial Intelligence for Science (SAIS) Shanghai China

The increasing volume of satellite data, particularly hyperspectral infrared data, combined with the real-time monitoring requirements of numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, has heightened the demand for computational efficiency and accuracy in radiative transfer models (RTM). Machine learning (ML) offers a promising approach, and numerous studies on ML-based RTM have emerged recently. However, existing ML-based RTMs for hyperspectral infrared were not end-to-end. Moreover, since the label data do not represent truth, models trained with loss functions like mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE) fail to account for its uncertainty. This limitation can lead to suboptimal model parameters, as training may assign higher weights to labels with larger errors. This study construct an end-to-end ML-based RTM focused on clear sky conditions over the ocean for the FengYun-4B satellite (FY-4B) Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS), using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and MSE for training, respectively. MLE accounts for the uncertainty of labels. The results indicate both models achieve high accuracy, with mean errors within 0.1 K (K) and standard deviation (STD) of errors within 0.04 K compared to the labels. The model trained with MLE exhibits a mean error closer to 0 and a STD similar to the error STD of labels, suggesting better parameter configurations to reflect the actual error distribution of the labels. Additionally, the temperature and water vapor Jacobian computed by both models are comparable to those obtained from RTTOV, highlighting their potential for application as observational operator in satellite data assimilation for hyperspectral infrared sounder. An end-to-end machine learning-based radiative transfer model for clear sky has been developed for FY-4B GIIRS The model, trained using a likelihood-based loss function that weights each channel differently, captures the uncertainty of labels The Jacobian matrix calc

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Impact of Atmospheric Transmittance and NLTE Correction on Simulation of High Spectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder onboard FY-3E

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 225-234页

作者： Chenggege FANG Peiming DONG Yang HAN Wanlin KAN Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological AdministrationNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Donghai Laboratory Zhoushan 316021 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081 Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric SciencesNanjing 210041

With the launch of the first civilian early-morning orbit satellite Fengyun-3E(FY-3E),higher demands are placed on the accuracy of radiative transfer simulations for hyperspectral infrared ***,several key issues are investigated in the ***,the accuracy of the fast atmospheric transmittance model implemented in the Advanced Research and modeling system(ARMS)has been evaluated with both the line-by-line radiative transfer model(LBLRTM)and the actual satellite *** results indicate that the biases are generally less than 0.25 K when compared to the LBLRTM,while below 1.0 K for the majority of the channels when compared to the ***,during both comparisons,significant biases are observed in certain *** accuracy of Hyperspectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder-II(HIRAS-II)onboard FY-3E is comparable to,and even superior to that of the Cross-track Infrared Sounder(CrIS)onboard ***,apodization is a crucial step in the processing of hyperspectral data in that the apodization function is utilized as the instrument channel spectral response function to produce the satellite channel-averaged *** further explore the difference between the apodized and unapodized simulations,Sinc function is adopted in the fast transmittance *** is found that the use of Sinc function can make the simulations fit the original satellite observations *** simulating with apodized observations,the use of Sinc function exhibits larger deviations compared to the Hamming ***,a correction module is applied to minimize the impact of Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium(NLTE)in the shortwave infrared *** is verified that the implementation of the NLTE correction model leads to a significant reduction in the bias between the simulation and observation for this band.

关键词： high spectral infrared sounding atmospheric transmittance apodization Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium Fengyun-3E(FY-3E)

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Can Eurasia Experience a Cold Winter under a Third-Year La Nina in 2022/23?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第4期40卷 541-548页

作者： Fei ZHENG Bo WU Lin WANG Jingbei PENG Yao YAO Haifeng ZONG Qing BAO Jiehua MA Shuai HU Haolan REN Tingwei CAO Renping LIN Xianghui FANG Lingjiang TAO Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System Research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center Beijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

The Northern Hemisphere(NH)often experiences frequent cold air outbreaks and heavy snowfalls during La Nina *** 2022,a third-year La Nina event has exceeded both the oceanic and atmospheric thresholds since spring and is predicted to reach its mature phase in December *** such a significant global climate signal,whether the Eurasian Continent will experience a tough cold winter should not be assumed,despite the direct influence of mid-to high-latitude,large-scale atmospheric circulations upon frequent Eurasian cold extremes,whose teleconnection physically operates by favoring Arctic air invasions into Eurasia as a consequence of the reduction of the meridional background temperature gradient in the *** the 2022/23 winter,as indicated by the seasonal predictions from various climate models and statistical approaches developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,abnormal warming will very likely cover most parts of Europe under the control of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the anomalous anticyclone near the Ural Mountains,despite the cooling effects of La *** the same time,the possibility of frequent cold conditions in mid-latitude Asia is also recognized for this upcoming winter,in accordance with the tendency for cold air invasions to be triggered by the synergistic effect of a warm Arctic and a cold tropical Pacific on the hemispheric ***,how the future climate will evolve in the 2022/23 winter is still subject to some uncertainty,mostly in terms of unpredictable internal atmospheric ***,the status of the mid-to high-latitude atmospheric circulation should be timely updated by medium-term numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction for the necessary date information and early warnings.

关键词： Eurasian climate seasonal forecast La Nina winter cold climate

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