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Extraction and application of intrinsic predictable component in day-ahead power prediction for wind farm cluster

Energy 2025年 328卷

作者： Yang, Mao Jiang, Renxian Yu, Xinnan Wang, Bo Su, Xin Ma, Chenglian The Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control & Renewable Energy Technology Ministry of Education Northeast Electric Power University Jilin132012 China State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy & Storage Systems China Electric Power Research Institute Beijing100912 China

With the continuous updating and iteration of artificial intelligence algorithms, prediction models emerge one after another, but the research and utilization of the predictability of wind power is still less. Therefore, this paper proposed a day-ahead power prediction method for Wind Farm Cluster (WFC) based on intrinsic predictable component extraction. Firstly, based on the difference of power distribution between wind farm and WFC, a method of Wind power Curve (WPC) modeling for WFC is proposed, which provides the basis for establishing the Final Set of Wind power Curve (FSWPC). Secondly, the Intrinsic Predictable Component (IPC) of wind power is extracted based on the FSWPC, and the Interference Component (IC) of wind power is separated to eliminate the influence of IC on IPC in the process of prediction. Thirdly, the historical similarity matching method with large threshold is used to predict the IC to make up for the numerical deficiency of the IPC. Finally, the proposed method was applied to a WFC in china to verify its effectiveness. Compared with the traditional prediction strategy, the NRMSE, NMAE and MAPE are reduced by 1.59 %, 1.15 % and 6.42 %, respectively. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd

关键词： Iterative methods

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Study on the thermal-electrical balance of the kW-class SOFC stack 17

Study on the thermal-electrical balance of the kW-class SOFC...

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17th International Symposium on Solid Oxide Fuel Cells, SOFC 2021

作者： Li, Biao Lyu, Zewei Han, Minfang Sun, Kaihua Sun, Zaihong Liu, Yang Department of Energy and Power Engineering State Key Laboratory of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipment Tsinghua University Beijing100084 China Xuzhou Huatsing Jingkun Energy Co. Ltd. Jiangsu Province 221004 China

ISBN: (纸本)9781607685395

Heat and electricity are deeply coupled in solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) stacks, and the balance and control between them are vital to the steady working condition and outputs. Therefore, studying the balance mechanism of heat and electricity is important to achieve the safe and stable operation of the SOFC stacks. In this paper, a semi-empirical simulation model of a kilowatt-level SOFC stack was established. Based on this model, the effects of different operating temperatures, flow rates, air to H2 ratios (AHR), and steam to carbon (S/C) ratios on the thermoelectric balance state of the SOFC stack were analyzed. Results show that the I-V curve can be separated into three parts: unbalance zone, unsustainable zone, and the self-heat balance zone by the self-heat balance voltage (SHBV) and the critical voltage (CV). The approximate voltage scope of the balance zone under different conditions is 0.6~0.9 V. © 2021 Electrochemical Society Inc.. All rights reserved.

关键词： Specific heat

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Capacitor Voltage Balancing Strategy Based on Zero-Sequence Voltage Injection for Half-Wave Commutated Modular Multilevel Converter

Capacitor Voltage Balancing Strategy Based on Zero-Sequence ...

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International Conference on power Electronics and Motion control (IPEMC)

作者： Nan Fu Bao Liu Yunfei Xu Sitong Zhu Kui Wang Yongdong Li Department of Electrical Engineering State Key Laboratory of Control and Simulation of Power System and Generation Equipment Tsinghua University Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Advanced Power Transmission Technology State Grid Smart Grid Research Institute Co. Ltd Changping Beijing China Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co. Ltd. Shenyang China

ISBN: (数字)9798350351330

ISBN: (纸本)9798350351347

Half-wave commutated modular multilevel converter (HWC-MMC) is suitable for high-voltage large-capacity AC-AC conversion, and an appropriate capacitor voltage balancing strategy is essential. This paper analyzes the condition of capacitor voltage balancing and proposes a capacitor voltage balancing strategy based on optimal zero-sequence voltage injection using the model predictive control. Finally, the simulation is carried out to verify the proposed strategy.

关键词： Multilevel converters Voltage fluctuations Capacitors High-voltage techniques power system harmonics power electronics Steady-state

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Research on Optimal Configuration and Operation Strategy of Distributed Energy Storage System

Research on Optimal Configuration and Operation Strategy of ...

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2022 IEEE International Conference on Advances in Electrical Engineering and Computer Applications, AEECA 2022

作者： Liu, Jian Le, Quanming Chen, Biao Xu, Xianghai Yang, Xuan Zhao, Ergang Hangzhou Power Supply Company of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co. Ltd. Hangzhou China Wuxi Research Institute of Applied Technologies Tsinghua University Wuxi China Tsinghua University State Key Lab of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipments Dept. of Electrical Engineering Beijing China

ISBN: (数字)9781665480901

ISBN: (纸本)9781665480901

With the continuous advancement of the 'dual carbon' goal, problems such as the peak-to-valley fluctuation characteristics of the power system load and the frequent overloading of lines are gradually becoming more prominent. At the distribution network level, too low line utilization will lead to idle assets, and too high line transmission capacity will lead to heavy overload and make it impossible for distributed power output to be connected to the grid. Aiming at the above problems, this article proposes an optimized configuration model of distributed energy storage system considering factors such as power flow, energy storage operation, life loss, and utilization of distribution network equipment. This model considers the constraints of distribution network power flow constraints, energy storage operation, and equipment utilization constraints. Minimizing the total energy storage system investment is the optimization goal. A mixed-integer second-order cone programming model using the second-order cone relaxation technique, so as to solve the optimal configuration and operation strategy of the distributed energy storage system. The case analysis shows that the optimal allocation of distributed energy storage considering multiple factors such as line utilization efficiency can ameliorate the line utilization efficiency, grid load peak-to-valley difference and the overall utilization rate of distribution network assets. © 2022 IEEE.

关键词： Energy storage

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Initial-stage performance evolution of solid oxide fuel cells based on polarization analysis 17

Initial-stage performance evolution of solid oxide fuel cell...

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17th International Symposium on Solid Oxide Fuel Cells, SOFC 2021

作者： Wang, Yige Lyu, Zewei Han, Minfang Sun, Zaihong Sun, Kaihua Department of Energy and Power Engineering State Key Laboratory of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipment Tsinghua University Beijing100084 China Xuzhou Huatsing Jingkun Energy Co. Ltd. Jiangsu Province Xuzhou221005 China

ISBN: (纸本)9781607685395

The performance evolution of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) is more pronounced and non-linear in the initial stage, determining the output level during subsequent long-term operation. In this study, an industrial-size (10×10 cm2) cell was tested under 0.1 A cm-2 for 96 hours. I-V-P curves and EIS data under different DC bias (0, 0.05, 0.10, 0.30, 0.50, 0.70 A cm-2) were periodically recorded every 24 hours to investigate the mechanism of initialstage performance evolution. The ohmic loss was identified as the main contributor to the total overpotential, especially under large current density. The cell performance increased during 4-24 h due to the enhancement of anode gas-phase diffusion/conversion processes, while the performance degraded significantly during 48- 96 h caused by the deterioration of anode charge transfer reaction. The EIS evolution trend under different DC bias was consistent, while the evolution degree was larger under smaller current density. © 2021 Electrochemical Society Inc.. All rights reserved.

关键词： Deterioration

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Multi-Stage Optimization Model for New power System Based on the Data Mining Algorithm 3

Multi-Stage Optimization Model for New Power System Based on...

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3rd International Conference on Clean and Green Energy Engineering, CGEE 2022

作者： Liu, Jian Liu, Zhijun Zhang, Jiahao Fu, Guanhua Zhu, Lei Zhao, Ergang Hangzhou Power Supply Company State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co. Ltd. Hangzhou China Wuxi Research Institute of Applied Technologies Tsinghua University State Key Lab of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipments Tsinghua University Dept. of Electrical Engineering Beijing China

ISBN: (数字)9781665452656

ISBN: (纸本)9781665452656

The construction of a new power system with new energy as the mainstay is conducive to accelerating the green transformation of the economy and society and high-quality development. However, in the new power system, the new load spiking characteristics are obvious, and the increase in peak-to-valley difference on the load side will cause a greater impact on the traditional power system. To achieve the goal of building a new power system with new energy as the mainstay, the demand response potential of users needs to be fully explored, and to a certain extent, the demand side will be prompted to provide equivalent regulation resources to the power side, which is of great significance to alleviate the tension between power supply and demand and promote the consumption of renewable energy. Therefore, this paper develops a multi-stage optimization model for new power system based on data mining algorithms. The model is based on a cluster mining method to extract the typical electricity consumption behaviour characteristics of users. Then the demand response potential of multi-cluster customers is analysed and the demand response characteristics of multi-cluster customers are studied. Finally, a multi-stage demand response optimization model under the new power system is established. © 2022 IEEE.

关键词： Renewable energy resources

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An Energy Storage Scheduling Strategy Based on Computational Optimization Starting Point

An Energy Storage Scheduling Strategy Based on Computational...

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2022 power System and Green Energy Conference, PSGEC 2022

作者： Wang, Shangxing Fan, Gaofeng Hong, Lucheng Chen, Zehua China Electric Power Research Institute State Key Laboratory of Control and Operation of Renewable Energy and Storage Systems Beijing China State Grid Corporation of China Beijing China Southeast University Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Smart Grid Technology and Equipment Nanjing China

ISBN: (数字)9781665499934

ISBN: (纸本)9781665499934

With a large number of new energy sources connected to the grid, the inverse peak characteristics of their power generation have brought great difficulties to the grid scheduling. In recent years, energy storage technology has gradually developed and matured, and its dual characteristics of charge and discharge provide a new solution to the problem of new energy consumption. However, the current peak load shifting scheduling problem for energy storage is mainly solved by intelligent optimization algorithm, which has the disadvantage of low solving efficiency and the risk of falling into a local optimal solution. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel scheduling strategy based on computational optimization starting point for energy storage, which can provide an appropriate iterative starting point for intelligent optimization algorithm through the preset process. Compared with the randomly generated starting point, the calculated starting point can make the objective function tend to the extreme value more quickly and stably. Finally, in the case studies part, a system with solar power generation was taken as the example. The energy storage peak load shifting optimization problem was solved by adopting the calculated starting point and the random generated starting point respectively, and the effectiveness of the proposed strategy is proved by comparing the test results. © 2022 IEEE.

关键词： Energy utilization

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Experimental Study on Dual parameter WeiBull Failure Model of Oil-Paper Insulation in Converter Transformers Considering the Influence of Harmonic Voltage

Experimental Study on Dual parameter WeiBull Failure Model o...

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International Conference on High Voltage Engineering and Application, ICHVE

作者： Ning Zhang Jian Hao Jing Xu Jixiang Wang Houhe Chen Ruijin Liao Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control & Renewable Energy Technology Ministry of Education Northeast Electric Power University Jilin China State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment Technology School of Electrical Engineering Chongqing University Chongqing China

ISBN: (数字)9798350374988

ISBN: (纸本)9798350374995

The main causes of harmonic distortion in new power systems are high percentage renewable energy grid connections and high percentage power electronic equipment access. These factors pose a serious threat to the ultra-high voltage converter transformers’ ability to perform as oil-paper insulation, and little research has been done on the failure law of oil-paper insulation that takes the effects of harmonic voltage into account. This paper presents the design and construction of a typical oil-paper insulation structure breakdown test platform, as well as the oil-paper insulation breakdown voltage under various frequency and content of harmonic voltage superimposed on the fundamental voltage. The dual parameter WeiBull distribution model is used to investigate the oil-paper insulation failure law under the influence of various harmonic voltage components. The experimental results show that the breakdown voltage of oil-paper insulation significantly decreases relative to the breakdown voltage of power frequency under the action of harmonic voltages with different frequencies and contents, and all follow a dual parameter WeiBull probability distribution. Among them, the minimum $\boldsymbol{U}_{63.2 \%}$ is about 13.47 kV when the 7 th and 11th harmonic voltage are superimposed, and the minimum $U_{63.2 \%}$ is about 13 kV when the 5th and 13th harmonic voltage are superimposed, which is about $\mathbf{2 3 \%}$ lower than the power frequency. Secondly, the fitting distribution of test data under the action of harmonic voltage of different frequencies and contents is approximately parallel, indicating that the failure mechanism of oil-paper insulation is the same.

关键词： Breakdown voltage Renewable energy sources power system harmonics Oil insulation Harmonic analysis Probability distribution power electronics

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Research on Comprehensive Assessment Method of Battery Consistency Based on Scaled Energy Storage power Station

Research on Comprehensive Assessment Method of Battery Consi...

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power and Electrical Engineering (ACPEE), 5th Asia Conference on

作者： Kepaiyitulla Tursun Ming Li Yunping Zheng Sijia Zong Xingyan Luo Shangxing Wang Xiangjun Li Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Whole Process Simulation for Power System State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Research Institute Urumqi China State Key Laboratory of Operation ad Control of Renewable Energy and Storage systems China Electric Power Research Istitute Beijing China

ISBN: (数字)9798350309638

ISBN: (纸本)9798350309645

In the long-term operation of a megawatt-scale energy storage plant composed of series-parallel connections, the single batteries will have different degrees of inconsistency problems. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a comprehensive assessment method based on the consistency of batteries in scaled energy storage power stations. According to the consistency indexes such as single battery voltage and voltage polarity difference in series connection between modules, the consistency evaluation criterion of battery monomer was established. Based on the historical data of a battery energy storage system, the consistency evaluation criterion of a single battery is used to analyze the consistency of a single battery of an energy storage power station at different charging and discharging stages. The results show that this method can accurately assess cell consistency. It provides data support for the health status assessment of energy storage plants and reduces the systematic operational risk of energy storage plants.

关键词： Electrical engineering Systematics Battery energy storage system Asia Voltage Hazards Batteries

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A Stochastic Resource Management Scheme for Multi-Energy Group control System

A Stochastic Resource Management Scheme for Multi-Energy Gro...

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power Electronics, Computer Applications (ICPECA), IEEE International Conference on

作者： Ran Ding Rongfu Sun Yan Geng Yiming Yao Ergang Zhao Lina Xu State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company Limited Beijing China Dept. of Electrical Engineering State Key Lab. of Control and Simulation of Power System and Generation Equipment Tsinghua University Beijing China

The interaction between various energy supply systems (cold, heat, electricity, gas, etc.) is becoming more tightly coupled as social economy and technology advance. Multi-energy systems are ineffective because different types of energy systems run independently. In order to protect the data privacy of each sub-system, this research suggests an ideal resource management framework for a multi-energy group control system. The energy hub (EH) paradigm is first suggested. When deploying EHs, the physical constraints of various energy systems are taken into account. Through scenario-based stochastic programming, the uncertainties of renewable energy are considered. According to the leader-follower relationship between multi-energy group control system operators and energy hub operators (EHOs), Benders decomposition is applied to decentralize the decision-making process. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm.

关键词： Data privacy Renewable energy sources Uncertainty Decision making Stochastic processes Process control Programming

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