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Addressing climate change with behavioral science: A global intervention tournament in 63 countries

Science Advances 2024年第6期10卷 eadj5778页

作者： Vlasceanu, Madalina Doell, Kimberly C. Bak-Coleman, Joseph B. Todorova, Boryana Berkebile-Weinberg, Michael M. Grayson, Samantha J. Patel, Yash Goldwert, Danielle Pei, Yifei Chakroff, Alek Pronizius, Ekaterina van den Broek, Karlijn L. Vlasceanu, Denisa Constantino, Sara Morais, Michael J. Schumann, Philipp Rathje, Steve Fang, Ke Aglioti, Salvatore Maria Alfano, Mark Alvarado-Yepez, Andy J. Andersen, Angélica Anseel, Frederik Apps, Matthew A.J. Asadli, Chillar Awuor, Fonda Jane Azevedo, Flavio Basaglia, Piero Bélanger, Jocelyn J. Berger, Sebastian Bertin, Paul Bialek, Michal Bialobrzeska, Olga Blaya-Burgo, Michelle Bleize, Daniëlle N.M. Bø, Simen Boecker, Lea Boggio, Paulo S. Borau, Sylvie Bos, Björn Bouguettaya, Ayoub Brauer, Markus Brick, Cameron Brik, Tymofii Briker, Roman Brosch, Tobias Buchel, Ondrej Buonauro, Daniel Butalia, Radhika Carvacho, Héctor Chamberlain, Sarah A.E. Chan, Hang-Yee Chow, Dawn Chung, Dongil Cian, Luca Cohen-Eick, Noa Contreras-Huerta, Luis Sebastian Contu, Davide Cristea, Vladimir Cutler, Jo D'Ottone, Silvana De Keersmaecker, Jonas Delcourt, Sarah Delouvée, Sylvain Diel, Kathi Douglas, Benjamin D. Drupp, Moritz A. Dubey, Shreya Ekmanis, Jānis Elbaek, Christian T. Elsherif, Mahmoud Engelhard, Iris M. Escher, Yannik A. Etienne, Tom W. Farage, Laura Farias, Ana Rita Feuerriegel, Stefan Findor, Andrej Freira, Lucia Friese, Malte Gains, Neil Philip Gallyamova, Albina Geiger, Sandra J. Genschow, Oliver Gjoneska, Biljana Gkinopoulos, Theofilos Goldberg, Beth Goldenberg, Amit Gradidge, Sarah Grassini, Simone Gray, Kurt Grelle, Sonja Griffin, Siobhán M. Grigoryan, Lusine Grigoryan, Ani Grigoryev, Dmitry Gruber, June Guilaran, Johnrev Hadar, Britt Hahnel, Ulf J.J. Halperin, Eran Harvey, Annelie J. Haugestad, Christian A.P. Herman, Aleksandra M. Hershfield, Hal E. Himichi, Toshiyuki Hine, Donald W. Hofmann, Wilhelm Howe, Lauren Huaman-Chulluncuy, Enma T. Huang, Guanxiong Ishii, Tatsunori Ito, Ayahito Jia, Fanli Jost, John T. Jovanović, Veljko Jurgiel, Dominika Kácha, Ondřej Kankaanpää, Reeta Kant Department of Psychology New York University New YorkNY10003 United States Department of cognition emotion and Methods in Psychology Faculty of Psychology University of Vienna Vienna1010 Austria Craig newmark center for Journalism ethics and Security Columbia University New YorkNY10018 United States Institute for Rebooting Social Media Harvard University CambridgeMA02138 United States Department of Psychology Stanford University StanfordcA94305 United States San luis Obispo cA93405 United States Copernicus institute of Sustainable development Utrecht University Utrecht3584 cB Netherlands Department of Psychology University of Pittsburgh PittsburghPA15260 United States School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs Northeastern University BostonMA02115 United States Department of Psychology Northeastern University BostonMA02115 United States Amazon SeattleWA98109 United States Department of Psychology Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg Oldenburg26129 Germany Santa lucia Foundation IRccS Rome179 Italy Department of Psychology Sapienza University of Rome Rome185 Italy Department of Philosophy Macquarie University SydneynSW2000 Australia Universidad Peruana cayetano heredia San Martín de Porres15102 Peru Post-Graduation Program in linguistics Federal University of Paraná Curitiba80060150 Brazil UnSW Business School University of new South Wales SydneynSW2052 Australia Centre for human Brain health School of Psychology University of Birmingham BirminghamB15 2tt United Kingdom Psychology Scientific Research institute Baku Azerbaijan Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research institute Kisumu1881-40100 Kenya Department of Psychology University of Groningen Groningen9712tS Netherlands Department of economics University of hamburg Hamburg20146 Germany De-partment of Psychology New York University Abu dhabi Abu dhabi129188 United Arab Emirates Department of Sociology University of Bern Bern3012 Switzerland LAPcOS Univers

Effectively reducing climate change requires marked, global behavior change. However, it is unclear which strategies are most likely to motivate people to change their climate beliefs and behaviors. Here, we tested 11 expert-crowdsourced interventions on four climate mitigation outcomes: beliefs, policy support, information sharing intention, and an effortful tree-planting behavioral task. Across 59,440 participants from 63 countries, the interventions’ effectiveness was small, largely limited to nonclimate skeptics, and differed across outcomes: Beliefs were strengthened mostly by decreasing psychological distance (by 2.3%), policy support by writing a letter to a future-generation member (2.6%), information sharing by negative emotion induction (12.1%), and no intervention increased the more effortful behavior—several interventions even reduced tree planting. Last, the effects of each intervention differed depending on people’s initial climate beliefs. These findings suggest that the impact of behavioral climate interventions varies across audiences and target behaviors. © 2024 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climate change

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INTRODUCTION

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Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2024年第8期105卷 S1-S11页

作者： Boyer, T. Blunden, J. Dunn, R.J.H. NOAA/NESDIS National Centers for Environmental Information Silver Spring Maryland NOAA/NESDIS National Centers for Environmental Information Asheville North Carolina Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter United Kingdom European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reading United Kingdom University of Maryland College Park Maryland Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego La Jolla California NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Prediction Center College Park Maryland Brandenburg University of Technology (BTU) Cottbus-Senftenberg Germany Servicio Meteorológico Nacional Buenos Aires Argentina NOAA/OAR Physical Sciences Laboratory Boulder Colorado European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Bonn Germany Center for Geophysical Research and School of Physics University of Costa Rica San José Costa Rica Department of Meteorology and National Centre for Earth Observation University of Reading Reading United Kingdom Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais CEMADEN São Paulo Brazil Université Grenoble Alpes Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement IRD CNRS Grenoble INP Grenoble France Hampton University Hampton Virginia Seychelles Meteorological Authority Mahe Seychelles Section for Glaciers Ice and Snow Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate Oslo Norway National Research Institute for Agriculture Food and Environment (INRAE) CARRTEL Université Savoie Mont Blanc Thonon les Bains France Graduate School of Agriculture Osaka Metropolitan University Sakai Japan Science Faculty Universidad Nacional de Colombia Bogotá Colombia University of Bremen Bremen Germany NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory Boulder Colorado Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú Lima Perú Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación – Spanish National Research Council (CSIC-UV-GVA) Valencia Spain Hydro-Climate Extremes Lab (H-CEL) Ghent University Ghent Belgium Department o

In 2023, La Niña conditions that generally prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean from mid-2020 into early 2023 gave way to a strong El Niño by October. Atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—all increased to record-high levels. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 419.3±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. The growth from 2022 to 2023 was 2.8 ppm, the fourth highest in the record since the 1960s. The combined short-term effects of El Niño and the long-term effects of increasing levels of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere contributed to new records for many essential climate variables reported here. The annual global temperature across land and oceans was the highest in records dating as far back as 1850, with the last seven months (June–December) having each been record warm. Over land, the globally averaged temperature was also record high. Dozens of countries reported record or near-record warmth for the year, including China and continental Europe as a whole (warmest on record), India and Russia (second warmest), and Canada (third warmest). Intense and widespread heatwaves were reported around the world. In Vietnam, an all-time national maximum temperature record of 44.2°C was observed at Tuong Duong on 7 May, surpassing the previous record of 43.4°C at Huong Khe on 20 April 2019. In Brazil, the air temperature reached 44.8°C in Araçuaí in Minas Gerais on 20 November, potentially a new national record and 12.8°C above normal. The effect of rising temperatures was apparent in the cryosphere, where snow cover extent by June 2023 was the smallest in the 56-year record for North America and seventh smallest for the Northern Hemisphere overall. Heatwaves contributed to the greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Due to rapid volume loss beginning in 2021, St. A

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Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

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The Lancet 2020年第10258期396卷 1204-1222页

作者： Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Kaja M. Abbasi, Mohammad Abbasifard, Mitra Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbastabar, Hedayat Abd-Allah, Foad Abdelalim, Ahmed Abdollahi, Mohammad Abdollahpour, Ibrahim Abedi, Aidin Abedi, Parisa Abegaz, Kedir Hussein Abolhassani, Hassan Abosetugn, Akine Eshete Aboyans, Victor Abrams, Elissa M. Abreu, Lucas Guimarães Abrigo, Michael R.M. Abu Haimed, Abdulaziz Khalid Abualhasan, Ahmed Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal Abushouk, Abdelrahman I. Acebedo, Alyssa Ackerman, Ilana N. Adabi, Maryam Adair, Tim Adamu, Abdu A. Adebayo, Oladimeji M. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adekanmbi, Victor Adelson, Jaimie D. Adeoye, Abiodun Moshood Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Adham, Davoud Advani, Shailesh M. Afarideh, Mohsen Afshari, Mahdi Afshin, Ashkan Agardh, Emilie E. Agarwal, Gina Agasthi, Pradyumna Agesa, Kareha M. Aghaali, Mohammad Aghamir, Seyed Mohammad Kazem Agrawal, Anurag Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmadi, Alireza Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadieh, Hamid Ahmadpour, Ehsan Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Aji, Budi Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akinyemiju, Tomi Akombi, Blessing Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet Alahdab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Samiah Alam, Tahiya Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alanzi, Turki M. Albertson, Samuel B. Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alema, Niguse Meles Alemu, Biresaw Wassihun Alemu, Yihun Mulugeta Alhabib, Khalid F. Alhassan, Robert Kaba Ali, Muhammad Ali, Saqib Alicandro, Gianfranco Alijanzadeh, Mehran Alinia, Cyrus Alipour, Vahid Alizade, Hesam Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Alla, François Allebeck, Peter Almadi, Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almasi, Ali Almasi-Hashiani, Amir Almasri, Nihad A. Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. Almulhim, Abdulaziz M. Alonso, Jordi Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Altirkawi, Khalid A. Alumran, Arwa Khalid Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. Amare, Azmeraw T. Amare, Bekalu Amini, Saeed Amini-Rarani, Mostafa Aminorroaya, Arya Amiri, Fatemeh Amit, Arianna Maever L. Amugsi, Dickson A. Amul, Gianna Gayle Herrera Anbesu, Etsay Woldu Ancuceanu, Robert Anderl Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London United Kingdom Social Determinants of Health Research Center Tehran Iran Department of Neurology Cairo University Cairo Egypt School of Pharmacy Tehran Iran The Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences (TIPS) Tehran Iran Neuroscience Research Center Isfahan University of Medical Sciences Isfahan Iran Biostatistics Department Near East University Nicosia Cyprus Biostatistics and Health Informatics Madda Walabu University Bale Robe Ethiopia Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran Iran Karolinska University Hospital Huddinge Sweden Department of Cardiology Dupuytren University Hospital Limoges France University of Limoges Limoges France Department of Pediatric Dentistry Federal University of Minas Gerais Belo Horizonte Brazil Department of Research Philippine Institute for Development Studies Quezon City Philippines Department of Healthcare Policy and Research Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar Doha Qatar Harvard Medical School Boston MA United States Department of Medicine Ain Shams University Cairo Egypt Hamadan University of Medical Sciences Hamadan Iran School of Medicine Cardiff University Cardiff United Kingdom School of Laboratory Medicine and Science University College Hospital Ibadan Ibadan Nigeria Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases University of Ibadan Ibadan Nigeria Centre of Excellence for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis Stellenbosch University Cape Town South Africa Department of Global Health Stellenbosch University Cape Town South Africa School of Health Ardabil University of Medical Science Ardabil Iran Social Behavioral Research Branch National Institute of Health Bethesda MD United States Department of Oncology Georgetown University Washington DC DC United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine Seattle WA

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw value

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Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2017 (vol 395, pg 1779, 2020)

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LANCET 2020年第10239期395卷 1762-1762页

作者： Reiner, R. C., Jr. Hay, S., I Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Global Health School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States College of Health and Medical Sciences Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Nursing and Midwifery Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Pharmacy Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Public Health Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Cancer Biology Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Cancer Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Economics and Management Sciences for Health Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Environmental Health Engineering Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Management and Economics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Microbiology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Pharmacology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Digestive Diseases Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Iran National Institute of Health Research Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Metabolomics and

Summary Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood *** We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor *** The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy *** By co-analysing geospatial trends in d

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Causes of blindness and vision impairment in 2020 and trends over 30 years, and prevalence of avoidable blindness in relation to VISION 2020: the Right to Sight: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study (vol 2, pg 144, 2021)

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LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2021年第4期9卷 E408-E408页

作者： Steinmetz, Jaimie D. Vision and Eye Research Institute Anglia Ruskin University Cambridge United Kingdom Biomedical Informatics Seoul National University Hospital Seoul South Korea Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Institute of Health Services Research Yonsei University Seoul South Korea Department of Ophthalmology University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Mathematics Imperial College London London United Kingdom WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Education and Training Imperial College London London United Kingdom Department of Primary Care and Public Health Imperial College London London United Kingdom School of Population and Global Health University of Melbourne Carlton VIC Australia School of Optometry and Vision Science UNSW Sydney NSW Australia Brien Holden Vision Institute Sydney Australia Department of Ophthalmology University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia Department of Parasitology and Mycology Jahrom University of Medical Sciences Jahrom Iran Department of Clinical Sciences University of Sharjah Sharjah United Arab Emirates Ophthalmic Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Ophthalmology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Ophthalmic Epidemiology Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Health Services Management Department Qazvin University of Medical Sciences Qazvin Iran Department of Systems Populations and Leadership University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI United States Department of Medicine Sofia Ismail Memorial Medical Centre Bogura Bangladesh The Fred Hollows Foundation Sydney NSW Australia Berhan Public Health & Eye Care Consultancy Addis A

Hospital El Salvador: a novel paradigm of intensive care in response to COVID-19 in central America. Lancet Glob Health 2021;9: e241?42?In this Comment, the conflict of interest statement should have included the following: ?By virtue of their roles within a public hospital or the Ministry of Health, MB, LC, WH, and XS are government employees. The findings and conclusions in the Comment are only those of the authors.? This correction has been made as of Feb 26, 2021.

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