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Evaluating CMIP6 Model Accuracy in Predicting and Clustering Precipitation and Temperature Trends in the Omo-Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia

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Atmosphere 2025年第1期63卷

作者： Fetene Muluken Chanie Mulugeta Genanu Kebede Yared Godine Demeke Zelalem K. Bedaso Assefa Derbew Tegen Eyale Bayable 1 Department of Meteorological Data and Climatology Ethiopian Meteorology Institute Addis Ababa Ethiopia3 Meteorology and Hydrology Faculty Water Technology Institute Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia 2 Institute of Geophysics Space Science and Astronomy Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Unit Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa Ethiopia5 State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Resources and Environment Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences and University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing People’s Republic of China 3 Meteorology and Hydrology Faculty Water Technology Institute Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia 4 Department of Geology and Environmental Geosciences University of Dayton 300 College Park Dayton OH45469-2364 USA 5 State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Resources and Environment Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences and University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing People’s Republic of China6 Federal TVT Institute Faculty of Civil Technology Department of Water Works Construction Addis Ababa 190310 Ethiopia 7 Addis Ababa University College of Natural and Computational Sciences Center for Environmental Science Addis Ababa1176 Ethiopia

ABSTRACTThis study evaluated the performance of the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) in predicting and clustering climate variables in the Omo-Gibe River Basin (OGRB), Ethiopia—a region highly vulnerable to climate change. Historical data (1984–2014) were used to evaluate 12 CMIP6 models using statistical metrics (R², RMSE, MBE) and categorical metrics (POD, FAR, CSI), identifying the best-performing models for each cluster. The selected models underwent bias correction using distribution mapping to enhance projection accuracy under two socio-economic pathways: SSP2–4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5–8.5 (high emissions) for the near-term (2023–2053) and mid-term (2054–2084) periods. The study employed the K-means clustering method to classify spatial variations in precipitation and temperature, resulting in three clusters of precipitation and two clusters for temperature. Sen's slope estimator and the Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test were utilized to analyze trends in precipitation and temperature time series. Key findings include model performance: For precipitation, INM-CM5-0, FGOALS-g3, and IPSL-CM6A-LR demonstrated strong performance in Clusters 1 and 3, while MPI-ESM1-2-LR and NorESM2-MM excelled in Cluster 2. For temperature, INM-CM5-0, BCC-CSM2-MR, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR exhibited the highest accuracy in Clusters 1 and 2. Significant precipitation increases were noted, particularly in Cluster 3, which shows a 74.7% rise by mid-century under SSP5–8.5. Temperature projections indicate maximum increases of 11.5% (absolute change: 3.1°C) in Cluster 1 and 8.4% (absolute change: 2.2°C) in Cluster 2, while minimum temperature rises reach as high as 23.5% (absolute change: 3.5°C). Spatial clustering revealed distinct climate patterns, with regions experiencing monomodal and bimodal rainfall cycles, providing a nuanced understanding of precipitation and temperature dynamics across the basin. These results reveal pronounced shifts in climate patterns, unde

关键词： Climate Change CMIP6 model climate projections Omo-Gibe River Basin

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Effect of land use land cover changes on the rate of soil erosion in the Upper Eyiohia river catchment of Afikpo North Area, Nigeria

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Environmental Challenges 2020年 1卷

作者： Obiahu, Ota Henry Elias, Eyasu Department of Soil Science and Environmental Management Ebonyi State University Abakaliki Nigeria Centre for Environmental Science College of Natural and Computational Sciences Addis Ababa University Ethiopia

The growing demand for cultivable land, deforestation and land conversion have taken their tolls over the past several decades in the region leading to serious degradation on soil and other natural resources. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) parameters were integrated with satellite remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS) to determine the extent and rate of soil loss. The results indicate significant land conversation during1996 and 2016 with increases in cultivated land by 3400 ha, settlement by 2300 ha and bare land with 2600 ha except grazing land with 300 ha at the expense of forest land, that had declined by 8600 ha. Consistent with the land conversation from native vegetation, soil erosion rate for the entire Upper catchment was from 79 t/ha in 1996 which increased to 149 t/ha for 2016. This was further substantiated by significant (p<0.05) variation in soil loss among land use types with significant high soil loss in cultivated (38 t/ha) and bare land (28 t/ha) and the lowest under forest cover (17 t/ha). There is urgent need for the development of comprehensive and viable land management land-use necessary to improve the status and utilization of catchment resources in response to sustainable land management practices for supportive livelihood of the local people. Area with high soil erosion losses among land use types should be protected by stone bunds, cultivation and ridge making should be carried out across slope while bare lands should be covered with trees through reforestation approach. © 2020

关键词： Catchment Geographical information system Land use land cover Soil erosion

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Correction: Impact of sugarcane irrigation on malaria vector Anopheles mosquito fauna, abundance and seasonality in Arjo-Didessa, Ethiopia

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Malaria journal 2023年第1期22卷 86页

作者： Assalif Demissew Dawit Hawaria Solomon Kibret Abebe Animut Arega Tsegaye Ming-Cheih Lee Guiyun Yan Delenasaw Yewhalaw Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences College of Medicine and Health Sciences Ambo University Ambo Ethiopia. assalifd@***. Aklilu Lemma Institute of Pathobiology Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa Ethiopia. assalifd@***. Yirgalem Hospital Medical College Yirgalem Ethiopia. School of Medical Laboratory Sciences Faculty of Health Sciences Jimma University Jimma Ethiopia. Tropical and Infectious Diseases Research Center (TIDRC) Jimma University Jimma Ethiopia. Program in Public Health University of California at Irvine Irvine CA 92697 USA. Aklilu Lemma Institute of Pathobiology Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa Ethiopia. College of Natural Science Department of Biology Jimma University Jimma Ethiopia.

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The potential of bacterial biocontrols in managing finger millet blast disease and promoting growth: A review

Microbe (Netherlands)

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Microbe (Netherlands) 2025年 7卷

作者： Andargie, Melkamu Abera, Merkuz Alemu, Tesfaye Bekele, Berhanu Departmeny of Biology Collage of Science Bahir Dar University P. O. box 79 Bahir Dar Ethiopia Department of Plant Sciences Collage of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences Bahir Dar University P. O. box 5501 Bahir Dar Ethiopia Department of Microbial Cellular and Molecular Biology College of Natural and Computational Sciences Addis Ababa University P.O.box: 1176 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Ambo Agricultural Research Center Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research P. O. box 37 Ambo Ethiopia

Finger millet plays a crucial role as a food crop in Ethiopia;however, its production is considerably threatened by blast disease caused by Magnaporthe grisea. Effective management of the disease is critical to reduce yield losses, and biological control has emerged as a promising alternative to traditional methods. This review examines the potential of biocontrol strategies in the management of finger millet blast while also promoting plant growth. Beneficial microorganisms, including bacterial species like Pseudomonas fluorescens and Bacillus subtilis, as well as fungal antagonists such as Trichoderma spp., have shown effectiveness in inhibiting Magnaporthe grisea through mechanisms like antibiosis, competition, parasitism, and the induction of systemic resistance. Moreover, these biocontrol agents support plant health by improving growth and resilience. To maximize their potential, more research is necessary to improve the use of biocontrol agents in various environments, including the application of genetically modified microorganisms for the production of secondary metabolites. It is essential to carry out molecular characterization, clarify the mechanisms of biocontrol, and identify the key genes associated with enzyme activity and the generation of bioactive compounds. Furthermore, investigations should focus on their impact on promoting plant growth. Attention must also be directed toward increasing production capacity and the commercialization of microbial biopesticides. Progress in these fields is crucial for the creation of sustainable and effective disease management strategies in finger millet farming. © 2025 The Authors

关键词： Biological control Blast disease Finger millet Magnaporthe grisea Sustainable agriculture

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Bush encroachment and impacts on grass biomass in Senkelle Swayne’s Hartebeest Sanctuary, Ethiopia

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Biodiversity 2020年第4期21卷 217-226页

作者： Kabeta, Lello Dalle, Gemedo Tolera, Motuma Kelboro, Girma Wondo Genet College of Forestry and Natural Resource Hawassa University Awasa Ethiopia Centre for Environmental Science College of Natural and Computational Sciences Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa Ethiopia Centre for Development Research (ZEF) University of Bonn Bonn Germany

The aim of this study was to assess bush encroachment and its impact on herbaceous biomass in Senkelle Swayne’s Hartebeest Sanctuary. Data on the extent and trend of bush encroachment were collected using Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing techniques. A total of 50 plots were used for vegetation and grass biomass data collection. A nested plot design was used to collect woody species with diameter at breast height (dbh) ≥ 10 cm, dbh > 2 cm and < 10 cm and dbh ≤ 2 cm. Within each 20 m × 50 m plot, five subplots, each 0.5 m × 0.5 m, were used to gather grass biomass data. Grass biomass was determined in the laboratory by oven drying at 65–70°C for 48 h. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Analysis of satellite data was done by preprocessing satellite images and enumerating a change matrix. The results showed that: (i) total area covered by grassland declined by 9.8% while the total area covered by bushland increased by 21.4% over the past 30 years;(ii)seven woody species belonging to four families were recorded in the encroached area;(iii) there was a significant difference (p < 0.05) in grass biomass between encroached and non-encroached strata;and (iv) the abundance of tree/shrub species and grass biomass were negatively correlated. Key policy insights There is an urgent requirement to implement projects that focus on bush clearance and the rehabilitation of grasslands appropriate for relevant foraging species–which could increase forage quality and quantity in protected areas. There is a need to develop and implement systems to determine the carrying capacity of the Swayne’s Hartebeest in the Senkelle Swayne’s Hartebeest Sanctuary to minimize negative impacts of overgrazing and ensure conservation of the species. Conflicting interests of local communities on the grazing land call for continuous awareness of the value of biodiversity and ecosystem services in these protected areas. © 2020 Biodiversity Conservancy International.

关键词： bush encroachment grass biomass Senkelle Sanctuary Swayne’s Hartebeest

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Corrigendum to "The current land use dynamics are dependent on the previous land conversion legacies in farming system of west Oromia, Ethiopia" [Heliyon 8 (12) (December 2022) e12504]

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Heliyon 2023年第3期9卷 e13953页

作者： Tibebu Enkossa Sileshi Nemomissa Debissa Lemessa Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management College of Natural and Computational Sciences Addis Ababa University P.O.BOX: 1176 Ethiopia. Department of Plant Science College of Agriculture Wollega University P.O. Box 395 Ethiopia.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/***.2022.e12504.].

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Elemental Characterization of Ambient Particulate Matter for a Globally Distributed Monitoring Network: Methodology and Implications

ACS ES&T air

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ACS ES&T air 2024年第4期1卷 283-293页

作者： Xuan Liu Jay R Turner Christopher R Oxford Jacob McNeill Brenna Walsh Emmie Le Roy Crystal L Weagle Emily Stone Haihui Zhu Wenyu Liu Zilin Wei Nicole P Hyslop Jason Giacomo Ann M Dillner Abdus Salam Al-Amin Hossen Zubayer Islam Ihab Abboud Clement Akoshile Omar Amador-Muñoz Nguyen Xuan Anh Araya Asfaw Rajasekhar Balasubramanian Rachel Ying-Wen Chang Craig Coburn Sagnik Dey David J Diner Jinlu Dong Tareq Farrah Paterne Gahungu Rebecca M Garland Michel Grutter de la Mora Sina Hasheminassab Juanette John Jhoon Kim Jong Sung Kim Kristy Langerman Pei-Chen Lee Puji Lestari Yang Liu Tesfaye Mamo Mathieu Martins Olga L Mayol-Bracero Mogesh Naidoo Sang Seo Park Yoav Schechner Robyn Schofield Sachchida N Tripathi Eli Windwer Ming-Tsang Wu Qiang Zhang Michael Brauer Yinon Rudich Randall V Martin Department of Energy Environmental & Chemical Engineering Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis Missouri 63130 United States. Air Quality Research Center University of California Davis Davis California 95616 United States. Department of Chemistry University of Dhaka Dhaka 1000 Bangladesh. Air Quality Research Division Environment and Climate Change Canada Toronto Ontario M3H 5T4 Canada. Department of Physics University of Ilorin Ilorin 240003 Nigeria. Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Mexico City 04510 Mexico. Institute of Geophysics Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology Hanoi 11307 Vietnam. Institute of Geophysics and Space Science Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa 1176 Ethiopia. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering National University of Singapore Singapore 117576 Singapore. Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science Dalhousie University Halifax Nova Scotia B3H 4R2 Canada. Department of Geography and Environment University of Lethbridge Lethbridge Alberta T1K 3M4 Canada. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences Indian Institute of Technology Delhi New Delhi 110016 India. Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena California 91109 United States. School of Environment Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 People's Republic of China. Research Laboratories Khalifa University Abu Dhabi 127788 United Arab Emirates. Institute of Applied Statistics University of Burundi Bujumbura BP1550 Burundi. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Pretoria 0001 South Africa. Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management North-West University Potchefstroom 2531 South Africa. Department of Geography Geo-Informatics and Meteorology University of Pretoria Pretoria 0002 South Africa. Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yonsei University Seoul 03722 Republic of Korea. Department of Community Health and Epidemiology Dalhousie University Halifax Nova Scotia B3

Global ground-level measurements of elements in ambient particulate matter (PM) can provide valuable information to understand the distribution of dust and trace elements, assess health impacts, and investigate emission sources. We use X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy to characterize the elemental composition of PM samples collected from 27 globally distributed sites in the Surface PARTiculate mAtter Network (SPARTAN) over 2019-2023. Consistent protocols are applied to collect all samples and analyze them at one central laboratory, which facilitates comparison across different sites. Multiple quality assurance measures are performed, including applying reference materials that resemble typical PM samples, acceptance testing, and routine quality control. Method detection limits and uncertainties are estimated. Concentrations of dust and trace element oxides (TEO) are determined from the elemental dataset. In addition to sites in arid regions, a moderately high mean dust concentration (6 μg/m) in PM is also found in Dhaka (Bangladesh) along with a high average TEO level (6 μg/m). High carcinogenic risk (>1 cancer case per 100000 adults) from airborne arsenic is observed in Dhaka (Bangladesh), Kanpur (India), and Hanoi (Vietnam). Industries of informal lead-acid battery and e-waste recycling as well as coal-fired brick kilns likely contribute to the elevated trace element concentrations found in Dhaka.

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Environmental risk assessment in selected dumpsites in Abakaliki metropolis, Ebonyi state, southeastern Nigeria

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Environmental Challenges 2021年 4卷

作者： Aja, Daniel Okolo, Chukwuebuka Christopher Nwite, Nte James Njoku, Chima Center for Environmental Science College of Natural and Computational Sciences Addis Ababa University Ethiopia Centre for Microbiology and Environmental Systems Science Department of Microbiology and Ecosystem Science University of Vienna Althanstr. 14 Wien 1090 Austria Department of Soil and Environmental Management Ebonyi State University Abakaliki Nigeria Department of Land Resources Management and Environmental Protection Mekelle University Ethiopia

Metal leaching into adjacent agricultural soil from dumpsites continues to hamper the quality of produce around the world. Three strategically located major solid waste Dumpsites within Abakaliki metropolis were selected and assessed for potential environmental risks of heavy metals. Samples of the soils from the dumpsites were collected from 0 to 15 cm and 15 to 30 cm soil depth. Multivariate approaches, descriptive statistics and contamination indices were employed. Metal concentrations were compared with local and international standard and most were found to be within the threshold. The results further showed that phosphate (PO₄³⁻), nitrate (NO³⁻) sulphate (SO₄²⁻), lead (Pb), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd), zinc (Zn) and iron (Fe) varied within depths and across dumpsites. Metal concentration was generally higher at 0–15 cm depth and decreased at 15–30 cm. The distribution trend across the studied dumpsites was Fe > Zn > Cu > Pb > Cd. Anions (NO³⁻, PO₄³⁻ and SO₄²⁻) concentrations generally increased with depth. We used the world average elemental concentrations as a benchmark for risk assessment. The factor of contamination (C_F) and the environmental risk index (R_I) indicated high contamination as well as environmental risks. The factor of enrichment (E_F), Geo-accumulation index (I_geo) and modified environmental risk index (MR_I) indicated very high enrichment and environmental risks of Pb, Cd, and Cu. Phyto-remediation, bioremediation, perimeter fencing, and periodic soil monitoring were recommended to restore the degraded soil for improved agricultural productivity. © 2021 The Author(s)

关键词： Agricultural productivity Leachate Nitisols Soil degradation Soil reclamation

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Genetic Diversity of Groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) Accessions using Inter Simple Sequence Repeats (ISSRs) Marker

Research Square

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Research Square 2020年

作者： Abdela, Mohammed Kebede, Mulugeta Feyissa, Tiliye Department of Applied Biology School of Applied Natural Sciences Adama Science and Technology University P.O.Box 1888 Adama Ethiopia Department of Biotechnology College of Natural and Computational Science Axum University P.O.Box 1010 Aksum Ethiopia Institute of Biotechnology College of Natural Science Addis Ababa University P.O.Box 1176 Addis Ababa Ethiopia

Background: Groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) belongs to the family Leguminoseae. It is the world’s most important source of edible oil and vegetable protein. To our knowledge, little is known about the genetic variability of cultivated Ethiopian A. hypogaea at a molecular level. It is important to understand the genetic diversity of the crop to collect, conserve and use the germplasm for variety development. In the present study, ISSR markers were used to determine the genetic variability and diversity of 43 accessions of A. hypogaea collected from different regions of Ethiopia. Results: Four ISSR primers were used to generate 56 reproducible bands of which 29 (51.8%) were polymorphic. The band size ranges from 120 bp to 1100 bp. The number of amplified bands varied from 12 in primer UBC841 to 18 in primer UBC 881. The polymorphic bands percentage ranges from 27.8 % of Primer UBC 881 to 84.6 % of primer UBC 857. The polymorphic information content (PIC) value ranges from 0.29 to 0.76 with the average value 0.49. The mean Nei’s gene diversity and Shannon’s information index were 0.25 and 0.33, respectively. Genetic relationship between A. hypogaea accessions based on Jaccard’s pair wise similarity coefficients varies from 44% to 83% with an average value of 63.5%. The UPGMA dendrogram based on cluster analysis grouped A. hypogaea accessions into five distinct clusters at 63.5% similarity coefficient, and the principal coordinate analysis revealed similar grouping. Conclusions: Even though in both UPGMA and PCoA most of the accessions were grouped in separate clusters irrespective of their geographic origins, the ISSR marker-based analysis shows the presence of genetic variability among the accessions. Moreover, the current study demonstrated the potential informativeness of ISSR markers in estimating the extent of genetic variation in A. hypogaea accessions. © 2020, CC BY.

关键词： Cluster analysis

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Landscape and Management Influences on Smallholder Agroforestry Yields Show Shifts During a Climate Shock

SSRN

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SSRN 2022年

作者： Morel, Alexandra C. Demissie, Sheleme Gonfa, Techane Mehrabi, Zia Rifai, Sami Hirons, Mark A. Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam Mason, John McDermott, Constance L. Boyd, Emily Robinson, Elizabeth J.Z. Malhi, Yadvinder Norris, Ken Department of Geography and Environmental Science University of Dundee United Kingdom Addis Ababa Ethiopia Sustainability Innovation Laboratory at Colorado and Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder United States ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes Sydney Australia Department of Environmental Science Policy and Management UC Berkeley BerkeleyCA United States University of Oxford United Kingdom Accra Ghana Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies Lund University Sweden Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment London School of Economics United Kingdom Natural History Museum London United Kingdom

Sustaining yields for smallholder perennial agriculture under a rapidly changing climate regime may require consideration of landscape features and on-farm management decisions in tandem. Optimising landscape and management may not be possible for maximising yields in any one year but maintaining heterogeneous landscapes could be an important climate adaptation strategy. In this study, we observed elevation, forest patch and shade management gradients affecting smallholder coffee ( Coffea arabica ) yields in a ‘normal’ year versus the 2015/16 El Niño. We generally found a benefit to yields from having leguminous shade trees and low canopy openness, while maintaining diverse shade or varying canopy openness had more complex influences during a climate shock. The two years of observed climate shock were dominated by either drought or high temperatures, with yield responses generally negative. Climate projections for East Africa predict more erratic rainfall and higher temperatures, which will disproportionately impact smallholder farmers. © 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Ecosystems

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