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Linkages of the 2022 Unprecedented Global Heatwave Events to Triple-Dip La Niña

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Linkages of the 2022 Unprecedented Global Heatwave Events to...

IEEE International Symposium on Geoscience and Remote Sensing (IGARSS)

作者： Sachi Perera Joshua B. Fisher Mohamed Allali Hesham El-Askary Computational and Data Sciences Graduate Program Schmid College of Science and Technology Chapman University Orange CA USA Earth Systems Science and Data Solution Lab Chapman University Orange CA USA Schmid College of Science and Technology Chapman University Orange CA USA Fowler School of Engineering Chapman University Orange CA USA Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science Alexandria University Alexandria Egypt

ISBN: (数字)9798350360325

ISBN: (纸本)9798350360332

Heatwaves are influenced significantly by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which alters temperature and precipitation patterns throughout the world. Since 2020, we have witnessed a "triple dip" La Niña conditions persisting for three consecutive years resulting in severe weather and climate driven events globally. In this study, we identified the dominant frequency of Niño 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signals and correlated them with regions experiencing unprecedented heat waves in 2022, namely, the Indian Ocean, the North Atlantic around England and Spain, and the Mediterranean Sea. The signal's power spectrum and its three highest power components are determined based on the signal's Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) for each region. Furthermore, the power spectrum coherence (PSC) of Niño 3.4 and other study regions is obtained to determine whether ENSO and heatwaves are linked. We find that Niño 3.4 and the Indian Ocean have the same dominant frequency for the highest power received, indicating ENSO's influence on the Indian heat wave. Additionally, we discovered that in March 2022, the Jet stream is essential in bringing warm Arctic waves southward, passing through Niño 3.4 and India. Furthermore, we found that no other region shared the dominant frequency of the Niño 3.4 region.

关键词： Heating systems Couplings Sea surface Precipitation Surface waves Indian Ocean Geoscience and remote sensing

Unbiased Approximations for Stationary Distributions of McKean-Vlasov SDEs

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Awadelkarim, Elsiddig Chada, Neil K. Jasra, Ajay Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia Department of Mathematics City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong School of Data Science The Chinese University of Hong Kong Shenzhen Shenzhen China

We consider the development of unbiased estimators, to approximate the stationary distribution of Mckean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MVSDEs). These are an important class of processes, which frequently appear in applications such as mathematical finance, biology and opinion dynamics. Typically the stationary distribution is unknown and indeed one cannot simulate such processes exactly. As a result one commonly requires a time-discretization scheme which results in a discretization bias and a bias from not being able to simulate the associated stationary distribution. To overcome this bias, we present a new unbiased estimator taking motivation from the literature on unbiased Monte Carlo. We prove the unbiasedness of our estimator, under assumptions. In order to prove this we require developing ergodicity results of various discrete time processes, through an appropriate discretization scheme, towards the invariant measure. Numerous numerical experiments are provided, on a range of MVSDEs, to demonstrate the effectiveness of our unbiased estimator. Such examples include the Currie-Weiss model, a 3D neuroscience model and a parameter estimation problem. © 2024, CC BY-NC-SA.

关键词： Stochastic systems

SARS-CoV-2 surveillance of wastewater in small rural communities identifies lack of vaccine coverage as influence of omicron outbreak

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Water Research 2025年 283卷

作者： Solana Narum Thibault Stalder Benjamin Ridenhour Erik R. Coats Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Graduate Program (BCB) University of Idaho 875 Perimeter Drive MS 1103 Moscow ID 83844 United States Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation (IMCI) University of Idaho 875 Perimeter Drive MS 1122 Moscow ID 83844 United States Department of Biological Sciences University of Idaho 875 Perimeter Drive MS 3051 Moscow ID 83844 United States Institute for Interdisciplinary Data Sciences (IIDS) University of Idaho 875 Perimeter Drive MS 3051 Moscow ID 83844 United States Department of Mathematics and Statistical Science University of Idaho 875 Perimeter Drive MS 1103 Moscow ID 83844 United States Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Idaho 875 Perimeter Drive MS 1022 Moscow ID 83844 United States

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) can provide critical early warnings to aid public health, which can be particularly beneficial in rural communities with limited access to health care. Spikes of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater have been used to represent infections in a community, but wastewater holds a wealth of information that has not been explored yet. The objectives of this research were to expand the use of WBE to 1) determine the dynamic of SARS-CoV-2 variants in rural communities, and 2) evaluate the relationship between community vaccination status and the outbreak of a variant. We quantified the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA, as well as specific mutations that are consistent with Delta and Omicron in influent raw wastewater samples collected from wastewater treatment facilities (WWTFs) for five populations with <1000 residents and one larger population in Latah County, ID. A binomial generalized linear model using the percent of the population with protection against Omicron from the initial vaccines and the booster shot was able to predict the probability of an uptick in Omicron concentration in wastewater with an accuracy of 0.96. Evaluation of vaccination data indicate that the spike in Omicron infections in December 2021 in the studied towns was linked to low levels of population protection from the initial shots of the COVID-19 vaccine against Omicron infection and limited uptake of booster shots in these communities. Despite difficulties with applying WBE in rural regions, this study shows that beyond evaluating spikes of viral infections, WBE can be used to evaluate the effect of a population’s vaccine coverage on SARS-CoV-2 variant dynamics.

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Parameter Estimation for Partially Observed McKean-Vlasov Diffusions

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Jasra, Ajay Maama, Mohamed Tempone, Raul School of Data Science The Chinese University of Hong Kong CN Shenzhen China Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia Chair of Mathematics for Uncertainty Quantification RWTH Aachen University Aachen52062 Germany

In this article we consider likelihood-based estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov (POMV) diffusion process with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, using the framework of [5] we develop a new randomized multilevel Monte Carlo method for estimating the parameters, based upon Markovian stochastic approximation methodology. New Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for the POMV model are introduced facilitating the application of [5]. We prove, under assumptions, that the expectation of our estimator is biased, but with expected small and controllable bias. Our approach is implemented on several examples. Copyright © 2024, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Stochastic systems

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Skater’s dilemma

arXiv 2020年

作者： Ichinose, Genki Miyagawa, Daiki Ito, Junji Masuda, Naoki Department of Mathematical and Systems Engineering Shizuoka University 3-5-1 Johoku Naka-ku Hamamatsu432-8561 Japan Skating Club Yamanashi Gakuin University 2-4-5 Sakaori Kofu Yamanashi400-8575 Japan Department of Mathematics University at Buffalo State University of New York BuffaloNY14260-2900 United States Computational and Data-Enabled Science and Engineering Program University at Buffalo State University of New York BuffaloNY14260-5030 United States

In some athletic races, such as cycling and types of speed skating races, athletes have to complete a relatively long distance at a high speed in the presence of direct opponents. To win such a race, athletes are motivated to hide behind others to suppress energy consumption before a final moment of the race. This situation seems to produce a social dilemma: players want to hide behind others, whereas if a group of players attempts to do so, they may all lose to other players that overtake them. To support that speed skaters are involved in such a social dilemma, we analyzed video footage data for 14 mass start skating races to find that skaters that hid behind others to avoid air resistance for a long time before the final lap tended to win. Furthermore, the finish rank of the skaters in mass start races was independent of the record of the same skaters in time-trial races measured in the absence of direct opponents. The results suggest that how to strategically cope with a skater’s dilemma may be a key determinant for winning long-distance and high-speed races with direct *** Codes 91A80 Copyright © 2020, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Game theory

Detecting anomalous citation groups in journal networks

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arXiv 2020年

作者： Kojaku, Sadamori Livan, Giacomo Masuda, Naoki Luddy School of Informatics Computing and Engineering Indiana University BloomingtonIN47408 United States Department of Computer Science University College London LondonWC1E 6EA United Kingdom Systemic Risk Centre London School of Economics and Political Science LondonWC2A 2AE United Kingdom Department of Mathematics University at Buffalo State University of New York BuffaloNY United States Computational and Data-Enabled Science and Engineering Program University at Buffalo State University of New York BuffaloNY14260-2900 United States Faculty of Science and Engineering Waseda University Tokyo169-8555 Japan

The ever-increasing competitiveness in the academic publishing market incentivizes journal editors to pursue higher impact factors. This translates into journals becoming more selective, and, ultimately, into higher publication standards. However, the fixation on higher impact factors leads some journals to artificially boost impact factors through the coordinated effort of a "citation cartel" of journals. "Citation cartel" behavior has become increasingly common in recent years, with several instances being reported. Here, we propose an algorithm—-named CIDRE—to detect anomalous groups of journals that exchange citations at excessively high rates when compared against a null model that accounts for scientific communities and journal size. CIDRE detects more than half of the journals suspended from Journal Citation Reports due to anomalous citation behavior in the year of suspension or in advance. Furthermore, CIDRE detects many new anomalous groups, where the impact factors of the member journals are lifted substantially higher by the citations from other member journals. We describe a number of such examples in detail and discuss the implications of our findings with regard to the current academic climate. Copyright © 2020, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Publishing

Enhancing Sustainable Development Goals Through Future Vapor Pressure Deficit Analysis In The Nile River Basin

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Enhancing Sustainable Development Goals Through Future Vapor...

IEEE International Symposium on Geoscience and Remote Sensing (IGARSS)

作者： Surendra Maharjan Wenzhao Li Shahryar Fazli Hani Sewilam Hesham El-Askary Computational and Data Sciences Graduate Program Schmid College of Science and Technology Chapman University Orange CA USA Earth Systems Science and Data Solutions Lab Chapman University Orange CA USA The Center for Applied Research on the Environment and Sustainability The American University in Cairo Cairo Egypt Department of Engineering Hydrology RWTH Aachen University Aachen Germany Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science Alexandria University Alexandria Egypt

ISBN: (数字)9798350360325

ISBN: (纸本)9798350360332

Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is crucial in meteorology and agriculture for understanding plant-environment interactions. Its application as an indicator in agricultural practices notably advances Sustainable Development Goals such as Zero Hunger (SDG 2) and Climate Action (SDG 13). This research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and food security in the Nile River Basin (NRB), emphasizing the role of VPD, temperature, and precipitation. Utilizing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, the study analyzes key climatic variables that influence agricultural conditions. The study applies the Mann-Kendall test to evaluate VPD trends from 2000 to 2060 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The study's findings on the implications of rising VPD levels in the Nile River Basin (NRB), particularly under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario, highlight a critical challenge for the region's agricultural productivity and food security. The increased VPD, indicative of drier conditions, leads to a moisture deficit for crops, potentially reducing agricultural yields. This scenario poses a significant threat to food security, as lower crop yields can result in food shortages and higher food prices, adversely affecting vulnerable populations. The study underscores the necessity of integrating VPD insights into agricultural and water resource management strategies to uphold food security against climatic variations in support of the SDGs.

关键词： Productivity Climate change Precipitation Food security Agriculture Rivers Sustainable development

MultiCalib4DEB: A toolbox exploiting multimodal optimisation in Dynamic Energy Budget parameters calibration

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Robles, Juan Francisco Chica, Manuel Filgueira, Ramón Agüera, Antonio Damas, Sergio Department of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Andalusian Research Institute in Data Science and Computational Intelligence DaSCI University of Granada Granada18071 Spain Department of Benthic resources Norwegian Institute of Marine Research BergenNO-5817 Norway Department of Software Engineering Andalusian Research Institute in Data Science and Computational Intelligence DaSCI University of Granada Granada18071 Spain Marine Affairs Program Life Sciences Centre Dalhousie University 1459 Oxford Street HalifaxNSB3H 4R2 Canada

1. Calibration is a crucial step for the validation of computational models and a challenging task to accomplish. 2. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory has experienced an exponential rise in the number of published papers, which in large part has been made possible by the DEBtool toolbox. Multimodal evolutionary optimisation could provide DEBtool with new capabilities, particularly relevant on the provisioning of equally optimal and diverse solutions. 3. In this paper we present MultiCalib4DEB, a MATLAB toolbox directly integrated into the existing DEBtool toolbox, which uses multimodal evolutionary optimisation algorithms to find multiple global and local optimal and diverse calibration solutions for DEB models. 4. MultiCalib4DEB adds powerful calibration mechanisms, statistical analysis, and visualisation methods to the DEBtool toolbox and provides a wide range of outputs, different calibration alternatives, and specific tools to strengthen the DEBtool calibration module and to aid DEBtool users to evaluate the performance of the calibration results. © 2023, CC BY-NC-ND.

关键词： Calibration

Big data in healthcare:Conceptual network structure,key challenges and opportunities

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Digital Communications and Networks 2023年第4期9卷 856-868页

作者： Leonardo B.Furstenaua Pedro Leivas Michele Kremer Sott Michael S.Dohan Jose Ricardo Lopez-Robles Manuel J.Cobo Nicola Luigi Bragazzi Kim-Kwang Raymond Choo Post-Graduate Program in Industrial Engineering Federal University of Rio Grande Do SulPorto Alegre90035-190Brazil University of Santa Cruz Do Sul Av.Independencia 2293Santa Cruz Do SulRSBrazil Business School Unisinos UniversityAv.Dr.Nilo Peçanha 160091330-002Porto AlegreBrazil Faculty of Business Administration Lakehead UniversityThunder BayOntarioCanada Autonomous University of Zacatecas Av.Ramon Lopez Velarde Col.CentroZacatecas98000Mexico Department of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Andalusian Research Institute in Data Science and Computational Intelligence(DaSCI)University of GranadaGranada 18071Spain York University ON M3J 1P3Canada Department of Information Systems and Cyber Security University of Texas at San AntonioSan AntonioTX78249USA

Big data is a concept that deals with large or complex data sets by using data analysis tools(e.g.,data mining,machine learning)to analyze information extracted from several sources *** data has attracted wide attention from academia,for example,in supporting patients and health professionals by improving the accuracy of decision-making,diagnosis and disease *** research aimed to perform a Bibliometric Performance and Network Analysis(BPNA)supported by a Scoping Review(SR)to depict the strategic themes,thematic evolution structure,main challenges and opportunities related to the concept of big data applied in the healthcare *** this goal in mind,4857 documents from the Web of science covering the period between 2009 to June 2020 were analyzed with the support of SciMAT *** bibliometric performance showed the number of publications and citations over time,scientific productivity and the geographic distribution of publications and research *** strategic diagram yielded 20 clusters and their relative importance in terms of centrality and *** thematic evolution structure presented the most important themes and how it changes over ***,we presented the main challenges and future opportunities of big data in healthcare.

关键词： Big data Healthcare digitalization Bibliometric Strategic intelligence Co-word analysis SciMAT