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IEEE General Meeting Power& Energy Society

作者： Hongfei Sun Dongliang Duan Hongming Zhang Seong Choi Jie Rockey Luo Liuqing Yang Center of Power Systems Engineering National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Golden CO Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Wyoming Laramie WY Chief Modeling Engineer with NREL Lower Colorado River Authority in Texas Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Colorado State University Fort Collins CO Internet of Things Thrust and Intelligent Transportation Thrust The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) Guangzhou China Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Hong Kong SAR China

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people’s daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

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Big Data: Prospects and Challenges

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Vikalpa 2015年第1期40卷 74 - 96页

作者： Janakiraman Moorthy Rangin Lahiri Neelanjan Biswas Dipyaman Sanyal Jayanthi Ranjan Krishnadas Nanath Pulak Ghosh (Coordinator) Director and Professor of Marketing at the Institute of Management Technology Dubai. Earlier he was Professor of Marketing at the IIM Calcutta and IIM Lucknow. He received his PhD from IIM Ahmedabad. His recent research papers were published in the leading scholarly ournals such as Marketing Science British Food Journal Journal of Information Technology Case and Application Research Journal of Database Marketing & Customer Strategy Management. He has wide experience in the banking and investment industry. He was earlier the Global Research and Project Director of the Institute for Customer Relationship Management Atlanta USA. He was the Convener of the prestigious CAT Exam 2011. e-mail: Practice Director leading Atos India's CRM practice while supporting Strategic Business Development for North American Market. With an experience of more than 15 years Rangin has worked extensively as a Business Consultant in Information Technology (Sales Automation Marketing & Service Management area) Customer Data Management and CRM Analytics. e-mail: Business Consultant at Atos with extensive experience in Business Analysis Risk Management Analytics Business Development Presales Solution Ideation on Enterprise Data Management Enterprise Reference Data and Master Data Management area. e-mail: founder and CEO of dono consulting a boutique quantitative analytics and investment research firm. He has worked for leading financial firms in New York and India including Dow Jones Blackstone Sorin Capital (VP Quantitative Modeling) and Thomson Reuters (Head of Real Estate Analytics). A CFA charter holder and Commonwealth Scholar Deep has an MS (Applied Economics) from University of Texas Dallas and an MA (Economics) from Jadavpur University e-mail: Professor in the Information Systems Group of the Institute of Management Technology Ghaziabad. Her PhD is in the field of data mining from Jamia Millia Islamia Central University India. She has published five edited books. She is serving on the editorial b

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Towards a methodological approach to identify future M&S standard needs

Towards a methodological approach to identify future M&S sta...

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2011 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2011

作者： Tolk, Andreas Balci, Osman Diallo, Saikou Y. Fishwick, Paul A. Hu, Xiaolin Loper, Margaret Petty, Mikel D. Reynolds Jr., Paul F. Sarjoughian, Hessam Zeigler, Bernard P. Old Dominion University Engineering Management and Systems Engineering 241 Kaufman Hall Norfolk VA 23529 United States Virginia Tech. Department of Computer Science 3160B Torgersen Hall Blacksburg VA 24061 United States Virginia Modeling Analysis and Simulation Center Old Dominion University 1030 University Blvd Suffolk VA 23435 United States University of Florida Digital Arts and Sciences CISE Department Gainesville FL 32611 United States Georgia State University Computer Science Department Atlanta GA 30303 United States Georgia Tech. Research Institute Information and Communications Laboratory Atlanta GA 30318 United States University of Alabama in Huntsville Shelby Center 144 301 Sparkman Drive Huntsville AL 35899 United States University of Virginia 151 Engineer's Way Charlottesville VA 22901 United States Arizona State University Center for Integrative Modeling and Simulation Tempe AZ 85271 United States RTSync Corp. 11900 Parklawn Dr. Rockville MD 20852 United States

ISBN: (纸本)9781457721083

Although modeling and Simulation is successfully applied for several decades, the community only established a handful of M&S specific standards. Although the standards were applied enabling worldwide distributed simulation applications, in particular in the training application domain of military simulation systems, the general success of M&S standard efforts and their potential for general applicability has been debated repeatedly during several conferences and workshop. This collection of position statements discusses related questions, such as, "What makes M&S special that we need M&S standards," "Are M&S standards truly different from Software engineering Standards," and "What metrics can be used to measure M&S standard success," and tries to contribute to establishing a methodological approach to identify future M&S standard needs. These position statements have been contributed in preparation of a panel discussion and edited for the supporting proceedings. © 2011 IEEE.

关键词： Military applications

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An exploration-based taxonomy for emergent behavior analysis in simulations

An exploration-based taxonomy for emergent behavior analysis...

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2007 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC

作者： Gore, Ross Reynolds Jr., Paul F. Modeling and Simulation Technology Research Initiative Department of Computer Science University of Virginia 151 Engineer's Way P.O. Box 400740 Charlottesville VA 22904-4740 United States

ISBN: (纸本)1424413060

Emergent behaviors in simulations require explanation, so that valid behaviors can be separated from design or coding errors. We present a taxonomy, to be applied to emergent behaviors of unknown validity. Our goal is to facilitate the explanation process. Once a user identifies an emergent behavior as a certain type within our taxonomy, exploration can commence in a manner befitting that type. Exploration based on type supports narrowing of possibilities and suggests exploration methods, thus facilitating the exploration process. Ideally, a taxonomy would be robust, allowing reasonable variation in behavior type assignment without penalty in cost or correctness during the exploration process. The taxonomy we present is robust, comprehensive and suitable for use with our established emergent behavior exploration methods. In addition to the taxonomy, we present our design rationale, and a summary of results from a test application of our taxonomy. © 2007 IEEE.

关键词： Taxonomies

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Influence of added head mass properties on head/neck loads during standard helicopter impact conditions

Influence of added head mass properties on head/neck loads d...

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SAFE Association 42nd Annual Symposium

作者： Paskoff, Glenn Sieveka, Ed Computer Modeling Engineer Escape and Crashworthiness Division NAVAIR Bldg. 2187 48110 Shaw Road Patuxent River MD Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division Patuxent River MD

Thirty-degree pitch-down helicopter crash pulses were examined at the Patuxent River Horizontal Accelerator facility. The pulses used were representative of standard seat qualification crash corridors for a variety of rotary wing platforms. The primary objectives of this effort were 1) to quantitatively determine the effect of varying helmet weight and center of gravity (CG) during simulated rotary wing crash scenarios, and 2) to perform data analysis using existing injury criteria to identify maximum requirements for helmet weight and CG for the extremes of the rotary wing aviator population. Quantification of risk was based upon aviator size, helmet mass properties and impact severity. Testing included a Hybrid III 95th percentile male, a 50th percentile male, and a 5th percentile female. In order to achieve the necessary helmet weight and CG values required for the tests, a head-mass fixture was developed and used in place of the manikin's head that allowed weights to be added both forward and laterally on the head to generate a wide array of weight and CG configurations. modeling of the system was performed using MADYMO, which was used to refine the test matrix for the weight and CG locations that would most likely define the mass properties envelope from the known criteria force/moment limits. A comprehensive analysis of the data was performed using available injury predictors to determine the likelihood of injury to the upper and lower cervical spine. The Nij cervical injury criterion developed by the National Highway and Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) was adapted and used to determine the risk of cervical injury. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) with a post-hoc Tukey-Kramer test to determine the source of the difference was conducted on the principal neck parameters to determine whether any of the factors were statistically significant (defined as p<0.05). Results indicated that pulse severity was the most dominant variable examined during the study. Th

关键词： Accidents

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Dynamic scheduling and line balancing methods, and software tools for lean and reconfigurable disassembly cells and lines

Dynamic scheduling and line balancing methods, and software ...

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2003 IEEE International Symposium on Electronics and the Environment

作者： Ranky, Paul G. Subramanyam, Madan Caudill, Reggie J. Limaye, Ketan Alli, Najeeb Dept. of Indust. and Mfg. Syst. Eng. New Jersey Institute of Technology MERC Newark NJ 07102 United States MERC Newark NJ 07102 United States MERC NJIT Dept. of Indust. and Mfg. Syst. Eng. Newark NJ 07102 United States Computer Modeling Engineer NDCEE Task 228: DEER 2 Program Concurrent Technologies Corporation Largo FL 337773-5026 United States New Jersey Institute of Technology MERC Newark NJ 07102 United States

The purpose of this research is to create a set of methods, software tools and industry validated cases, that enable disassembly enterprise managers to execute different computer controlled production control and management programs, that will help them to run their real-world disassembly lines and factories. In this paper, we'll particularly focus on the challenges of dynamically scheduling and balancing lean, reconfigurable disassembly cells and lines. This project is an integral part of our Webenabled Virtual Disassembly Manager (webVDM) project for Electronic Product / Process Designers, Disassembly Line Managers and Operators. webVDM is a major MERC/NJIT R&D group effort, supported by several funding agencies, companies and institutions and their hard working staff and RAs (Research Assistants).

关键词： Electronics industry

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Dynamic scheduling and line balancing methods, and software tools for lean and reconfigurable disassembly cells and lines

Dynamic scheduling and line balancing methods, and software ...

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IEEE International Symposium on Electronics and the Environment

作者： P.G. Ranky M. Subramanyam R.J. Caudill K. Limaye N. Alli Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering New Jersey Institute of Technology MERC Newark NJ USA MERC Newark NJ USA NJIT Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering MERC Newark NJ USA Computer Modeling Engineer NDCEE Concurrent Technologies Corporation Largo FL USA New Jersey Institute of Technology MERC Newark NJ USA

The purpose of this research is to create a set of methods, software tools and industry validated cases, that enable disassembly enterprise managers to execute different computer controlled production control and management programs, that will help them to run their real-world disassembly lines and factories. In this paper, we particularly focus on the challenges of dynamically scheduling and balancing lean, reconfigurable disassembly cells and lines. This project is an integral part of our Web-enabled Virtual Disassembly Manager (webVDM) project for electronic product/ process designers, disassembly line managers and operators. webVDM is a major MERC/NJIT R&D group effort, supported by several funding agencies, companies and institutions and their hard working staff and RAs (Research Assistants).

关键词： Dynamic scheduling Software tools Project management Research and development management computer industry Industrial control Production control Production facilities Job shop scheduling Processor scheduling

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Human systems integration and advanced technology in engineering department workload and manpower reduction

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NAVAL engineerS JOURNAL 2003年第1期115卷 57-65页

作者： Lively, KA Seman, AJ Kirkpatrick, M KENNETH A. LIVELY graduated from the University of Colorado with a BS in applied mathematics and an MS in mathematics in 1976 and from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with an MS in electrical engineering and the degree ocean engineer in naval architecture and marine engineering in 1984. He retired from the U.S. Navy in 1989 after 23 years of service. Assignments included electrical officer on the USS Constellation (CV 64) project engineer for the DDG 51 machinery control system (NAVSEA) and DDG 51 Technical Director (NAVSEA). He was vice president of the PDI Division of Bird-Johnson Company from July 1989 to November 1998 where he managed various gas turbine and machinery controls related development projects. He joined Anteon Corporation's Systems Engineering Group as senior controls engineer in December 1998 where he provided technical support to the integrated power systems program (NAVSEA PMS 510) and managed the Office of Naval Research Afloat Laboratory. DR. MARK KIRKPATRICK is currently an independent consultant in human factors and work-load/manning analysis and modeling. He holds a Ph.D. degree in experimental psychology from The Ohio State University and has 34 years of experience in applied human factors. From 1982 through 2000 Dr. Kirkpatrick served as the senior vice president of Carlow International. Prior to joining Carlow in 1982 Dr. Kirkpatrick served as a member of the technical staff at North American Rockwell's Missiles Division and as a project director and vice president for Essex Corporation. His areas of expertise include workload simulation task analysis operator-in-the-loop simulation human performance experimentation statistical analysis and human factors T&E. He has directed and/or participated in human factors projects for the U.S. Navy U.S. Army NASA Department of Transportation the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and private industry. ANTHONY J. SEMAN III is the technical manager for the reduced ship's crew by virtual presence (RSVP) advanced technology d

Aboard current ships, such as the DDG 51, engineering control and damage control activities are manpower intensive. It is anticipated that, for future combatants, the workload demand arising from operation of systems under conditions of normal steaming and during casualty response will need to be markedly reduced via automated monitoring, autonomous control, and other technology initiatives. Current DDG 51 class ships can be considered as a manpower baseline and under Condition III typical engineering control involves seven to eight watchstanders at manned stations in the Central Control Station, the engine rooms and other machinery spaces. In contrast to this manning level, initiatives such as DD 21 and the integrated engineering plant (IEP) envision a partnership between the operator and the automation system, with more and more of the operator's functions being shifted to the automation system as manning levels decrease. This paper describes some human systems integration studies of workload demand reduction and, consequently, manning reduction that can be achieved due to application of several advanced technology concepts. Advanced system concept studies in relation to workload demand are described and reviewed including. Piecemeal applications of diverse automation and remote control technology concepts to selected high driver tasks in current DDG 51 activities. Development of the reduced ship's crew by virtual presence system that will provide automated monitoring and display to operators of machinery health, compartment conditions, and personnel health. The IEP envisions the machinery control system as a provider of resources that are used by various consumers around the ship. Resource needs and consumer priorities are at all times dependent upon the ship's current mission and the availability of equipment pawnbrokers.

关键词： Naval warfare

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Definition of evaluation criteria for system development acquisition modeling and simulation

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NAVAL engineerS JOURNAL 1999年第1期111卷 55-64页

作者： Leite, MJ Mensh, DR Michael J. Leite:is a Principal Engineer with PRC Inc. a division of Litton Industries. He supports combat system engineering for theater air and missile defense. His other tasks have included the command and control for the AEGIS shipbuilding program systems engineering for the 21st Century Surface Combatant combat system survivability and the development of NATO standardization agreements for naval ordnance. He was previously a Senior Engineer with San Diego Gas & Electric with responsibility for its energy application and lighting programs. Prior to joining SDG&E Mr. Leite was a commissioned officer in the U.S. Navy where he served in operations and engineering assignments. Following active duty he accepted a Naval Reserve commission and has retired with the rank of Captain. His assignments included command operational and engineering tours. Mr. Leite has also served as an expert witness in admiralty and engineering matters. He is a gradate of the University of California Berkeley with a Bachelor of Science Degree in Engineering and also holds a Masters Degree in Business Administration from National University in San Diego. Mr. Leite is a Registered Professional Engineer in the States of California and Minnesota. Mr. Leite is a member of ASNE ASCE MORS the Illuminating Engineering Society and the U.S. Naval institute. Dennis Roy Mensh:is a Senior Engineer with PRC Inc. a division of Litton Industries in Crystal City VA where he supports modeling and simulation tasking for combat systems. He received BS and MS degrees in applied Physics from Lopola College in Baltimore MD and the American University in Washington DC. He has also completed the course work towards a Ph.D. degree in computer science specializing in the fields of Operations Reseurch Anabsis Systems Analysis and Computer Modeling and Simulation. Previously he was employed at the White Oak Laboratory of the Naval Surface Warfare Carter in Silver Spring MD where he worked in the areas of naval sensor and weapon system analysis

This paper defines, develops and examines a set of generic analysis tools that can be applied to Models and Simulations at the Systems engineering level of fidelity. The tools examine the performance and effectiveness of Sensors;Weapons;and Battle Management, Command, Control, Communications, computers, and Intelligence ((BMCI)-I-4) systems and equipment. The Measures of Performance (MOPs), Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) and Measures of Force Effectiveness (MOFEs) were extracted from the Modular Command and Control Structure Paradigm which was developed at the Naval Postgraduate School. The paradigm provides for the development of evaluation criteria (MOPs, MOEs, and MOFEs) in a framework that ensures the traceability of system performance and effectiveness to the system operational requirements as specified in the Operational Requirements Document (ORD). Also, the analysis tools provide insight and valid estimates of numerical measures of the defined system functionality threads, which represent the system's operational requirements as specified in the ORD. The tools are directly transferrable and applicable to test and evaluation exercise events which are conducted in support of the development and acquisition of systems and equipment. Once the levels of system performance have been defined, the Paradigm generates a quantitative database that becomes a useful tool in system tradeoffs and selection. Once the alternative system suites have been defined, the suites can be analyzed in terms of system functionality threads and their corresponding performance capabilities versus cost.

关键词： Naval vessels

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A technology overview for a proposed Navy surface combatant DC Zonal Electric Distribution System

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NAVAL engineerS JOURNAL 1999年第3期111卷 59-69页

作者： Ciezki, JG Ashton, RW John G. Ciezki:received his B.S. E. E. M.S.E.E. and Ph.D. from Purdue University in 1988 1990 and 1993 respectively. While working on his degrees he has done extensive research fm P. C. Krause and Associates in electric drive modeling and simulation. Following post-doctorate work at Purdue he joined the staff at the Naval Postgraduate School in 1994 as an Assistant Professor in the area of Power Systems. Robert W. Ashton:graduated from Virginia Polytechnic Institute with a B.S.E.E. in 1982. He worked for Unisys Corporation as a Component Engineer until returning to school in 1986. He received his M.S.E.E. in 1989 from Worcester Polytechnic Institute. He earned a Ph.D. in the area of power electronics while a fellow with Northeast Utilities in Connecticut. He currently holds the position of Associate Professor in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey GI.

The U.S. Navy is currently investigating the implementation of a DC Zonal Electric Distribution System (DC ZEDS) as a component of an Integrated Power System (IPS) for the next generation of surface combatant. In replacing the current ac radial distribution system, significant gains can be realized in terms of survivability, weight, manning and cost. DC ZEDS is predicated on having starboard and port de busses feeding electrical zones delineated by watertight bulkhead compartments. The main bus de voltage is stepped down within the zone and then converted to three-phase ac and lower voltage de by additional power converters. Due to the large interconnection of tightly-regulated power converters in a stiffly-connected system, negative input impedance effects create the possibility of unwanted resonances. In this paper the authors describe the rationale for the de zonal system, characterize the key components, and highlight the stability issues.

关键词： direct current Fluconazole Navy dispensing system Electricity

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