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Integrating AI for infectious disease prediction: A hybrid ANN-XGBoost model for leishmaniasis in Pakistan

Acta Tropica 2025年 266卷

作者： Niu, Ben Qureshi, Humera Khan, Muhammad Imran Shah, Adil School of Computer Science and Software Engineering Shenzhen Institute of Information Technology Shenzhen China College of Management Shenzhen University Shenzhen China Division of Biostatistics Department of Population Health King Abdullah International Medical Research Center Riyadh Saudi Arabia King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs (MNGHA) Riyadh Saudi Arabia Health Department Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Peshawar Pakistan

Addressing leishmaniasis infection remains a substantial challenge in KP-Pakistan due to the increased infection prevalence. Understanding its spreading tool offerings is a major challenge. We essentially design effective approaches to pinpoint its emergence and implement upgraded management strategies. This study aims to assess the prevalence of leishmaniasis infection in KP's four high-endemic districts (Bannu, Karark, Lakki Marwat, and Dera Ismail Khan) and estimate the potential future incidence. We executed a broad logical evaluation on data obtained from the pertinent district health departments of KP, using a novel hybrid ANN-XGBoost approach. We assessed its performance by equating it with frequently used models for infectious disease forecasting over time, comprising the ARIMA, LSTM, ANN, and XGBoost. We evaluated the model's precision using manifold indicators: MAE, RMSE, and MAPE. We developed the models using Python 3.11 software. The results show that the hybrid model outperformed all other models, attaining an MAE score of 82.2, an RMSE of 111.6, and a MAPE of 10.6, validating superior forecast accuracy. According to our proposed model, about 1,017 new leishmaniasis cases are expected per month by December 2025. These findings provide valuable insights for disease monitoring and intervention in KP. Advanced machine learning techniques can help policymakers improve resource mapping and come up with targeted management measures to stop the spread of leishmaniasis. Subsequent research should include other environmental and socio-economic variables influencing illness spread to improve predictive models. © 2025

关键词： Infection Khyber pakhtunkhwa Leishmaniasis Pakistan Prediction

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A method for solving trade-off among cost for owned/borrowed resource and loss of business chances

A method for solving trade-off among cost for owned/borrowed...

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Proceedings - Eighth IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems engineering

作者： Masuishi, Tetsuya Mon, Kinji Software Division Hitachi Ltd. School of Computer Engineering Tokyo Institute of Technology

This paper proposes a new problem for resource consumers who join resource-sharing communities to calculate how much resource to be owned from the view point of cost for owing and borrowing resource and loss of business chances. The consumers can borrow resource from the communities when their resource is insufficient. A community model and some resource usage models are assumed to figure out the problem. A cost function is introduced. The function consists of the three kinds of cost/loss for the depreciation time of owned resource. The function value grows when owned resource is too much, and also grows when owned resource is too little. This means that the function value indicates the least point when owned resource is optimal. This paper introduces some assumptions about the character of resource sharing community and the shape of resource usage curve, and shows that the optimization problem can be solved analytically.

关键词： Resource allocation

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RSCS: A parallel simplex algorithm for the Nimrod/O optimization toolset

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Scientific Programming 2006年第1期14卷 1-11页

作者： Lewis, Andrew Abramson, David Peachey, Tom Division of Information Services Griffith University Brisbane QLD Australia Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering Monash University Melbourne Vic. Australia

This paper describes a method of parallelisation of the popular Nelder-Mead simplex optimization algorithms that can lead to enhanced performance on parallel and distributed computing resources. A reducing set of simplex vertices are used to derive search directions generally closely aligned with the local gradient. When tested on a range of problems drawn from real-world applications in science and engineering, this reducing set concurrent simplex (RSCS) variant of the Nelder-Mead algorithm compared favourably with the original algorithm, and also with the inherently parallel multidirectional search algorithm (MDS). All algorithms were implemented and tested in a general-purpose, grid-enabled optimization toolset. © 2006 - IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Parallel algorithms

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Eternal embedded software: Towards innovation experiment systems

Eternal embedded software: Towards innovation experiment sys...

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5th International Symposium on Leveraging Applications of Formal Methods, Verification and Validation: Technologies for Mastering Change, ISoLA 2012

作者： Bosch, Jan Eklund, Ulrik Software Engineering Division Dept. Computer Science and Engineering Chalmers University of Technology Göteborg Sweden

ISBN: (纸本)9783642340253

The paper discusses the concept of innovation experiment systems in the context of long-lived embedded systems. These systems need to evolve continuously to stay competitive and provide value to the customer and end-user, especially in domains where the pace of change is increasing. Innovation experiment systems provide a natural mechanism that allows an embedded system, its architecture and underlying platform to continuously evolve in response to changes in the user requirements and system context. It uses a rapid feedback loop to evaluate the benefits of small variations to users with the intent of continuous improvements. The paper explores the architectural implications as the ability to continuously evolve and conduct experiences in the deployed product context in a safe and controlled manner must be supported by the architecture of the embedded systems. Finally, the paper illustrates these concepts using a case study concerning an infotainment system in the automotive industry. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

关键词： Embedded systems

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Visualizing testing activities to support continuous integration: A multiple case study

Visualizing testing activities to support continuous integra...

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15th International Conference on Agile software Development, XP 2014

作者： Nilsson, Agneta Bosch, Jan Berger, Christian Software Engineering Division Dpmt of Computer Science and Engineering University of Technology University of Gothenburg Gothenburg Chalmers Sweden

ISBN: (纸本)9783319068619

While efficient testing arrangements are the key for software companies that are striving for continuous integration, most companies struggle with arranging these highly complex and interconnected testing activities. There is often a lack of an adequate overview of companies' end-to-end testing activities, which tend to lead to problems such as double work, slow feedback loops, too many issues found during post-development, disconnected organizations, and unpredictable release schedules. We report from a multiplecase study in which we explore current testing arrangements at five different software development sites. The outcome of the study is a visualization technique of the testing activities involved from unit and component level to product and release level that support the identification of improvement areas. This model for visualizing the end-to-end testing activities for a system has been used to visualize these five cases and has been validated empirically. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.

关键词： Visualization

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Architecture for large-scale innovation experiment systems

Architecture for large-scale innovation experiment systems

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Joint 10th Working IEEE/IFIP Conference on software Architecture, WICSA 2012 and 6th European Conference on software, ECSA 2012

作者： Eklund, Ulrik Bosch, Jan Software Engineering Division Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering Chalmers University of Technology Göteborg Sweden

ISBN: (纸本)9780769548272

Business and design decisions regarding software development should be based on data, not opinions among developers, domain experts or managers. The company running the most and fastest experiments among the customer base against the lowest cost per experiment outcompetes others by having the data to engineer products with outstanding qualities such as power consumption and user experience. Innovation experiment systems for mass-produced devices with embedded software is an evolution of current R&D practices, going from where innovations are internally evaluated by the original equipment manufacturer to where they are tried by real users in a scale relevant to the full customer base. The turnaround time from developing and deploying an embedded product to getting customer feedback is decreased to weeks, the limit being the speed of the software development teams. The paper presents an embedded architecture for realising such a novel innovation experiment system based on a set of scenarios of what to evaluate in the experiments. A case is presented implementing an architecture in a prototype in-vehicle infotainment system where comparative testing between two software alternatives was performed. © 2012 IEEE.

关键词： software architecture

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Automating timed specification transparency for human designer validation of real-time discrete-event control requirements

Automating timed specification transparency for human design...

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2012 IEEE International Conference on Automation Science and engineering: Green Automation Toward a Sustainable Society, CASE 2012

作者： Dhananjayan, Amrith Seow, Kiam Tian Division of Software and Information Systems School of Computer Engineering Nanyang Technological University Singapore Singapore

ISBN: (纸本)9781467304283

In supervisory control of discrete-event systems, prescribing formal specifications is a non-trivial task that depends on the intuition and cognitive understanding of the designer. A human designer has no assurance if a prescribed specification is as intended, making it necessary to manually validate the specification, i.e., check whether the specification does indeed prescribe the intended requirement. This uncertainty in specification is compounded in the case of timed discrete-event systems (TDES's), where real-timing behavior also needs to be correctly specified. The fundamental control theory for TDES's requires a specification to be formalized as a timed transition graph (TTG), prescribing a timed regulation of logical behavior that restricts a TDES to some timed execution sequences. To help validate the specification, human designers need an algorithm that can automatically remodel the TTG specification, to highlight sequences essential for comprehending the specification's timed restrictions while hiding irrelevant information. By 'hiding' in self-loops the associated events of all transitions deemed irrelevant to the specification, we can obtain a more comprehensible TTG, formalized by what we call a transparent TTG specification. In this paper, we propose a polynomial-time algorithm to compute TTG specifications of clear transparency. © 2012 IEEE.

关键词： Transparency

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A Real-Time Optimization Model for Production Planning in Quarry Sites 8

A Real-Time Optimization Model for Production Planning in Qu...

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8th IEEE International Conference on Industrial engineering and Applications, ICIEA 2021

作者： Fattouh, Anas Bohlin, Markus Sundmark, Daniel Mälardalen University Division of Computer Science and Software Engineering Västerås Sweden

ISBN: (纸本)9781665428958

A quarry site is used to produce gravel with different granularities based on the customer's needs. The production process consists of different stages that need to be planned in order to achieve high productivity and low cost. During the operation of the quarry site, the operating parameters change, and the site productivity could be affected, therefore, a replanning of the production is needed. This paper presents a real-time optimization model for production planning in a quarry site. The optimization model consists of three modules, a productivity monitoring module, a simulation model, and an optimization algorithm. The productivity monitoring module produces the site productivity based on the current operating parameters of the quarry site. Once the site productivity reaches a specific threshold, the optimization algorithm is run on an updated simulation model to find the optimal values of the site parameters. The proposed real-time optimization model is applied to a real quarry site simulated on a high-fidelity simulator. The case study shows that the proposed optimization model can effectively improve the productivity of the quarry site and hence reduces the wastes and improve environmental sustainability. © 2021 IEEE.

关键词： Productivity

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A full-featured efficient clustering mechanism for improving QoS in MANETs

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International Journal of Networking and Virtual Organisations 2018年第2-4期19卷 105-132页

作者： Marcel, Gatete Kovalan, A. School of Computer Sciences and Applications Periyar Maniammai University ThanjavurTamil Nadu India Department of Mathematics and Computer Applications Division of Software Engineering Periyar Maniammai University ThanjavurTamil Nadu India

Due to the dynamicity of MANET’s topology and its infrastructureless nature, various problems arise from those inherent properties which degrade the QoS. Those negative issues are the energy constraints, problems related to broadcasting, high node mobility, unpartitioned network, and various challenges faced during the path discovery, route selection, packet scheduling and packet transmission processes, and security issues. To find an efficient solution to all those problems, in this paper, we propose a robust algorithm;Full-featured secure routing clustering algorithm with energy-aware and scheduling capabilities for highly increasing QoS in MANET (FSR-CAES), an efficient clustering technique which is a combination of numerous algorithms, each one containing one of the previously mentioned problems. The simulation results are provided with the NS-2 simulator varying the number of nodes and the evaluating parameters namely the routing overhead, packet delivery ratio, Normalised routing load, and the average end-to-end delay while comparing the performance of our proposed scheme with neighbour coverage-based probabilistic rebroadcast (NCPR), a routing protocol specialised in providing high QoS in MANETs as it is efficient in reducing the routing overhead in the network. The outcomes prove that our proposed scheme outperforms NCPR for all the studied scenarios for small, medium, and large MANETs. Copyright © 2018 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

关键词： Mobile ad hoc networks

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HFSM: Hierarchical facial shape modeling algorithm for realistic facial expression animation

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International Journal of Shape Modeling 2003年第1期9卷 101-135页

作者： Zhang, Yu Prakash, Edmond Cyril Sung, Eric Sch. of Elec./Electronic Engineering Nanyang Technological University Singapore 639798 Singapore Division of Software System School of Computer Engineering Nanyang Technological University Singapore 639798 Singapore

We propose a hierarchical 3D facial modeling technique for realistic facial expression animation from the anatomical specification. We analyze the real human face to construct the facial model with a hierarchical biomechanical structure, incorporating a physically-based approximation to facial skin tissue, a set of anatomically-motivated facial muscle actuators and underlying skull structure. The deformable skin model has multi-layer structure to approximate different types of soft tissue. It takes into account the nonlinear stress-strain relationship of the skin and the fact that soft tissue is almost incompressible. Different kinds of muscle models have been developed to simulate the distribution of the muscle force exerted to the skin due to muscle contraction. The 3D face model incorporates a skull structure which extends the scope of facial motion and facilitates facial muscle construction. The facial muscle construction is achieved by a muscle mapping approach which efficiently locates facial muscles at the anatomically correct positions between the skin and skull layers. To generate facial expressions, the resulting hierarchical facial model is animated by solving the governing dynamic equation. For computational efficiency, we use a localized, semi-implicit integration method in the numerical simulation. The dynamic facial animation algorithm runs at an interactive rate and synthesizes various realistic facial expressions.

关键词： Geometry

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