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An econometric modeling approach to short-term crude oil price forecasting

An econometric modeling approach to short-term crude oil pri...

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Chinese control Conference (CCC)

作者： Weiqi Li Linwei Ma Yaping Dai Pei Liu School of Automation Beijing Institute of Technology University 100081 China State Key Laboratory of Power Systems Department of Thermal Engineering Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Center Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China

In the competitive petroleum markets, oil price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to producers and consumers. This paper develops a structural econometric model of the Brent crude spot price using the explanatory variable of defined relative inventory and OPEC production to analyze and forecast short-run oil price. A Hodrick-Prescott filter method presented obtains the relative inventory variables caused by the short-run supply and demand fluctuations in the crude oil market. A case study using the proposed method is provided, and the results indicate that the model developed in this work is helpful to industry and government in making oil-related decisions and investigating the changes in inventory and OPEC production on price.

关键词： Predictive models Forecasting Production Economics Autoregressive processes Petroleum Correlation

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Adaptive Fuzzy and Sliding-Mode control of a Robot Manipulator with Varying Payload

Adaptive Fuzzy and Sliding-Mode Control of a Robot Manipulat...

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IEEE Conference on Decision and control

作者： Selami Beyhan Zsofia Lendek Robert Babuska Martijn Wisse Musa Alci Ege University Electrical and Electronics Engineering Bornova Izmir 35100 Turkey Department of Automation Technical University of Cluj-Napoca Romania Delft Center for Systems and Control Delft University of Technology Mekelweg 2 2628 CD Delft The Netherlands Delft Biorobotics Laboratory Delft University of Technology Mekelweg 2 2628 CD Delft The Netherlands

ISBN: (纸本)9781612848006

In this paper, we compare indirect adaptive fuzzy control and sliding-mode control in a robot manipulator application. The manipulator performs pick-and-place tasks with unknown and variable payloads. The change of payload causes large variations in the dynamics of the robot. The sliding-mode controller deals with the payload change through its inherent robustness, while the adaptive fuzzy control algorithm adjusts the controller's parameters on-line. The control methods are compared both in numerical simulations and in real-time experiments. The sliding mode controller obtains a very good steady performance. However, thanks to the continuing adaptation, the adaptive fuzzy controller eventually yields smaller steady-state error.

关键词： Robot Manipulator Variable structure systems Payload indirect adaptive fuzzy control controllers control Methods

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Modeling and analysis of MW-level grid-connected PV plant

Modeling and analysis of MW-level grid-connected PV plant

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Annual Conference of Industrial Electronics Society

作者： Yi Lei Zhengming Zhao Wei Xu Jianguo Zhu State Key Laboratory of Control and Simulation of Power System and Generation Equipment Department of Electrical Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing China School of Electrical Mechanical and Mechatronic Systems University of Technology Sydney Australia

This paper focuses on the modeling and analysis of the basic composition, characteristic and the interactions with grid for megawatt (MW)-level large scale grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) plants. For a MW-level PV plant, numbers of inverters with relatively smaller capacity are employed to operated in parallel. When the irradiance on the large area of PV array is not equal, the output power verses the voltage of the PV array will have several peak values and affect the maximal power tracking. LCL filters are adopted for filtering the harmonics generated by inverters, but due to its inherent resonance character, additional damping strategy is required. The power quantity of harmonics and voltage fluctuation may occur when one MW-level PV plant is connected to grid. For these characteristics, with the modeling and simulation of a real MW-level PV plant, this paper proposed and verified a novel method toward MPPT of large area PV arrays. The parallel running of inverters and grid voltage fluctuation are also simulated. Finally, the interaction with the grid voltage fluctuation is explored in detail.

关键词： Inverters Arrays Photovoltaic systems Fluctuations Voltage fluctuations

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Resource management using dynamical load prediction and multiprocessor cooperation

Resource management using dynamical load prediction and mult...

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International Conference on Networked Computing and Advanced Information Management (NCM)

作者： Xiuyan Guo Wu Zhang Jinlin Wang Gang Wu Joint Laboratory of Network Communication System & Control Department of Automation University of Science and Technology Hefei Anhui China National Network New Media Engineering Research Center Institute of Acoustics Chinese Academy and Sciences Beijing China

Resource management is a complicated problem in multiprocessor system. When tasks with real-time characteristic are scheduled on processor resource constraints such as CPU and memory have to be met, however, it is usually difficult for a system to ensure load balancing and resource constraints simultaneity. In order to handle this problem lots of algorithms have been brought forward. In this paper, a load balancing policy is proposed to manage and integrate processing resource of multiprocessor system which is used to send packets of packets flows on time. The policy dynamically predicts the wait time before a packet to be processed based on the load of the processor and the timestamp of the packet, and decides the migration of packet between processors to guarantee that the packets can be processed before deadline. This policy can not only increase the multiprocessor utilization but also enhance the capacity of the system against the jitter of load by packets migration between the processors as well. We use simulation experiment to show that the policy can reduce the possibility of packets delay and increase the concurrency of flows that the system can serve.

关键词： Load management Multicore processing Delay Real time systems Resource management Load modeling Jitter

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A discrete event-triggered communication scheme for networked T-S fuzzy systems

A discrete event-triggered communication scheme for networke...

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Annual Conference of Industrial Electronics Society

作者： Chen Peng Qing-Long Han Dong Yue School of Electrical and Automation Engineering Nanjing Normal University Nanjing Jiangsu China Centre of Intelligent and Networked Systems Central Queensland University Rockhampton QLD Australia Centre of Intelligent and Networked Systems School of Information and Communication Technology Central Queensland University Rockhampton QLD Australia Department of Control Science and Engineering Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhan China

This paper presents a discrete event-triggered communication scheme for a class of networked Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy systems. This scheme has two main features: i) whether or not the sampled state should be transmitted is determined by the current sampled state and the error between the current sampled state and the latest transmitted state, and ii) it is a discrete event-triggered communication scheme since the triggered conditions are measured and checked at the discrete sampling instant. Next, an asynchronous networked T-S fuzzy model is delicately constructed, which not only includes the state error, but also considers the non-uniform time scales in the networked T-S fuzzy model and the parallel distributed compensation fuzzy control rules. Then, using the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional techniques, two sufficient conditions are derived for system analysis and synthesis, respectively. In particular, the derived stabilization criterion can provide a tradeoff to balance the required communication resources and the desired performance. Finally, a numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关键词： Fuzzy systems Current measurement Delay Educational institutions control systems Stability analysis Measurement uncertainty

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Analysis of a Partially Decentralized Framework for Operating Future Power systems

Analysis of a Partially Decentralized Framework for Operatin...

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IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting

作者： Mingyang Li Peter B. Luh Eugene Litvinov Peng Zhang Center for Intelligent and Networked Systems (CFINS) Department of Automation Tsinghua National Laboratory for Information Science & Technology (TNLIST) Tsinghua University Dept. of Electrical & Computer Engineering University of Connecticut ISO New England Inc.

ISBN: (纸本)9781457710001

In future power systems, the Smart Grid technologies will bring in a large number of new entities, which are different from those in the current systems in two major aspects: first, the entities are geographically distributed throughout the system with their detailed information not available to the system operator, and second, the entities tend to autonomously optimize their own benefits. In view of both aspects, it is difficult to use the current centralized framework to operate future systems. In this paper, we present and analyze a new partially decentralized framework and the corresponding mechanisms as one step from the current framework toward the future ones, and the focus is on the real time electricity markets with a dispatch cycle of five minutes. In each dispatch cycle, the system operator posts electricity price forecasts, and individual entities actively respond to the prices to dispatch themselves. The system-wide power imbalance is used as a correction term in the next dispatch cycle to iteratively update the price forecasts, so that system balance is maintained in the long term. The new framework can accommodate the large number of entities without knowing their detailed information, and enable the entities to achieve better economic benefits. Small examples are used to analyze our framework and to compare it with the current one.

关键词： System operation Autonomous entities Renewable generation Decentralized Real time market Electricity price Decentralized Operating systems Dispatching Electricity pricing Frameworks power systems correct entry Smart grids Prices

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SEMG feature extraction methods for pattern recognition of upper limbs

SEMG feature extraction methods for pattern recognition of u...

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International Conference on Advanced Mechatronic systems (ICAMechS)

作者： Feng Zhang Pengfeng Li Zeng-Guang Hou Yixiong Chen Fei Xu Jin Hu Qingling Li Min Tan Laboratory of Complex Systems and Intelligence Science Institute of Automation the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering China University of Mining and Technology Beijing China Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing Beijing CN

In this paper, a new feature of surface electromyo-graphy (sEMG) by using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is proposed for motion recognition of upper limbs, and this method can be eventually used for rehabilitation robot control. Seven traditional features of sEMG are also extracted for comparative study, they are integral of absolute value (IAV), difference absolute mean value (DAMV), zero crossing (ZC), variance (VAR), mean power spectral density (MPSD), mean frequency (MF) and median frequency (MDF) respectively. For comparing the recognition rate of the different motions of the upper limb, each feature or their combination are used to construct the feature vectors, and the BP neural network with variable learning rate back propagation with momentum (GDX) algorithm is used to classify these motion modes. The experimental results summarize that the new feature extracted by using DWT presents a higher recognition rate (98.9%) than all of the traditional features, and the traditional features combination can also greatly improve the recognition rate (99%).

关键词： Feature extraction Discrete wavelet transforms Training Muscles Reactive power Neurons Signal processing algorithms

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On Positive Invariance for Delay Difference Equations

On Positive Invariance for Delay Difference Equations

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2011 American control Conference (ACC)

作者： Warody Lombardi Sorin Olaru Mircea Lazar Silviu-Iulian Niculescu E3S)-Automatic Control Department DISCO team INRIA E3S-SUPELEC Systems Sciences France Department of Electrical Engineering Eindhovan University of Technology Eindhoven Netherlands Laboratory of Signals and Systems SUPELECCNRS Gif-sur-Yvette France

In this paper a new concept of set invariance, called D-invariance, is introduced for dynamical systems described by delay difference equations. We will be interested in the definition and computation of such invariant sets in a specified bounded region of the state-space. The Minkowski algebra will be used to define mappings over the set of compact sets in direct relationship with the invariance of time-delay systems. Set-iterates based on these mappings can be used for the construction of a non-decreasing sequence of D-invariant sets.

关键词： Delay Approximation methods Approximation algorithms Heuristic algorithms Difference equations Stability analysis Algebra

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A multi-class pattern recognition method for motor imagery EEG data

A multi-class pattern recognition method for motor imagery E...

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IEEE International Conference on systems, Man and Cybernetics

作者： Yonghui Fang Minyou Chen Robert F Harrison State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology Chongqing University Chongqing China School of Electronic and Information Engineering Southwest University Chongqing China Department of Automatic Control & Systems Engineering University of Sheffield Sheffield UK

The Common Spatial Patterns (CSP) algorithm is useful for calculating spatial filters for detecting event-related desynchronization (ERD) for use in ERD-based brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). However, basic CSP is a supervised algorithm suited only to two-class discrimination; it is unable to solve multiclass discrimination problems. This paper proposes a new method named the binary common spatial patterns (BCSP) algorithm to extend the basic CSP method to multi-class recognition. Our method arranges the spatial filters and Fisher classifiers in the form of a binary tree whereby N - 1 spatial filters and N - 1 Fisher classifiers are calculated for N class recognition. This is fewer than must be calculated in other methods (e.g. one-versus-rest, OVR). This makes the overall classification procedure less redundant. Simulation results show that BCSP has better performance than the OVR scheme and outperforms the three best teams in the 2008 BCI-competition.

关键词： Spatial filters Arrays Feature extraction Electroencephalography Band pass filters Covariance matrix Filtering algorithms

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Two alternative approaches to stochastic discrete-time iterative learning control systems

Two alternative approaches to stochastic discrete-time itera...

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IEEE Conference on Decision and control

作者： Deyuan Meng Yingmin Jia Junping Du Fashan Yu Seventh Research Division and the Department of Systems and Control Beihang University (BUAA) Beijing 100191 China Beijing Key Laboratory of Intelligent Telecommunications Software and Multimedia School of Computer Science and Technology Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications Beijing 100876 China School of Electrical Engineering and Automation Henan Polytechnic University Jiaozuo 454000 Henan China

ISBN: (纸本)9781612848006

This paper aims to address the robust convergence problem that arises from discrete-time iterative learning control (ILC) systems subject to random disturbances. Two alternative approaches are considered in order to achieve the perfect output tracking of the stochastic discrete-time ILC systems in the sense of both expectation and variance, which use the tracking error and the input error for analysis, respectively. It is shown that the convergence results of two approaches to ILC can be established by developing some statistical expressions in super-vector forms. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the convergence results of two approaches to ILC are not always equal, and they can keep the same only in the case where the controlled plants are square.

关键词： Iterative learning control discrete-time systems random disturbances

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