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Fundamental Physics Opportunities with the Next-Generation Event Horizon Telescope

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Ayzenberg, Dimitry Blackburn, Lindy Brito, Richard Britzen, Silke Broderick, Avery E. Carballo-Rubio, Raúl Cardoso, Vitor Chael, Andrew Chatterjee, Koushik Chen, Yifan Cunha, Pedro V.P. Davoudiasl, Hooman Denton, Peter B. Doeleman, Sheperd S. Eichhorn, Astrid Eubanks, Marshall Fang, Yun Foschi, Arianna Fromm, Christian M. Galison, Peter Ghosh, Sushant G. Gold, Roman Gurvits, Leonid I. Hadar, Shahar Held, Aaron Houston, Janice Hu, Yichao Johnson, Michael D. Kocherlakota, Prashant Natarajan, Priyamvada Olivares, Héctor Palumbo, Daniel Pesce, Dominic W. Rajendran, Surjeet Roy, Rittick Saurabh Shao, Lijing Tahura, Shammi Tamar, Aditya Tiede, Paul Vincent, Frédéric H. Visinelli, Luca Wang, Zhiren Wielgus, Maciek Xue, Xiao Yakut, Kadri Yang, Huan Younsi, Ziri Theoretical Astrophysics Eberhard-Karls Universität Tübingen TübingenD-72076 Germany Center for Astrophysics Harvard & Smithsonian 60 Garden Street CambridgeMA02138 United States Harvard University 20 Garden Street CambridgeMA02138 United States CENTRA Departamento de Física Instituto Superior Técnico – IST Universidade de Lisboa – UL Avenida Rovisco Pais 1 Lisboa1049-001 Portugal Max-Planck-Institut für Radioastronomie Auf dem Hügel 69 BonnD-53121 Germany Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics 31 Caroline Street North WaterlooONN2L 2Y5 Canada Department of Physics and Astronomy University of Waterloo 200 University Avenue West WaterlooONN2L 3G1 Canada Waterloo Centre for Astrophysics University of Waterloo WaterlooONN2L 3G1 Canada CP3-Origins University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55 Odense MDK-5230 Denmark Florida Space Institute University of Central Florida 12354 Research Parkway Partnership 1 OrlandoFL32826 United States Niels Bohr International Academy Niels Bohr Institute Blegdamsvej 17 Copenhagen2100 Denmark Princeton Gravity Initiative Jadwin Hall Princeton University PrincetonNJ08544 United States Department of Physics University of Maryland College ParkMD20742 United States Institute for Research in Electronics and Applied Physics University of Maryland College ParkMD20742 United States Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics 60 Garden Street CambridgeMA02138 United States Campus de Santiago Aveiro3810-183 Portugal High Energy Theory Group Physics Department Brookhaven National Laboratory UptonNY11973 United States Asteroid Initiatives LLC United States Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics WaterlooONN2L2Y5 Canada Kavli Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics Peking University Beijing100871 China Institut für Theoretische Physik und Astrophysik Universität Würzburg Emil-Fischer-Strasse 31 Würzburg97074 Germany Institut für Theoretische Physik Goethe Universität Frankfurt Max-von

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration recently published the first images of the supermassive black holes in the cores of the Messier 87 and Milky Way galaxies. These observations have provided a new means to study supermassive black holes and probe physical processes occurring in the strong-field regime. We review the prospects of future observations and theoretical studies of supermassive black hole systems with the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT), which will greatly enhance the capabilities of the existing EHT array. These enhancements will open up several previously inaccessible avenues of investigation, thereby providing important new insights into the properties of supermassive black holes and their environments. This review describes the current state of knowledge for five key science cases, summarising the unique challenges and opportunities for fundamental physics investigations that the ngEHT will enable. Copyright © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Telescopes

Do your social profiles reveal what languages you speak? Language inference from social media profiles 38th

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Do your social profiles reveal what languages you speak? Lan...

38th European Conference on Information Retrieval Research, ECIR 2016

作者： Xu, Yu Ghorab, M. Rami Wang, Zhongqing Zhou, Dong Lawless, Séamus ADAPT Centre Knowledge and Data Engineering Group School of Computer Science and Statistics Trinity College Dublin Dublin Ireland Natural Language Processing Lab Soochow University Suzhou China School of Computer Science and Engineering Hunan University of Science and Technology Xiangtan China

ISBN: (纸本)9783319306704

In the multilingual World Wide Web, it is critical for Web applications, such as multilingual search engines and targeted international advertisements, to know what languages the user understands. However, online users are often unwilling to make the effort to explicitly provide this information. Additionally, language identification techniques struggle when a user does not use all the languages they know to directly interact with the applications. This work proposes a method of inferring the language(s) online users comprehend by analyzing their social profiles. It is mainly based on the intuition that a user’s experiences could imply what languages they know. This is nontrivial, however, as social profiles are usually incomplete, and the languages that are regionally related or similar in vocabulary may share common features;this makes the signals that help to infer language scarce and noisy. This work proposes a language and social relation-based factor graph model to address this problem. To overcome these challenges, it explores external resources to bring in more evidential signals, and exploits the dependency relations between languages as well as social relations between profiles in modeling the problem. Experiments in this work are conducted on a large-scale dataset. The results demonstrate the success of our proposed approach in language inference and show that the proposed framework outperforms several alternative methods. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016.

关键词： Search engines

Skipping Strategy (SS) for Initial Population of Job-Shop Scheduling Problem

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Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2018年第1期978卷

作者： M Abdolrazzagh-Nezhad E B Nababan H M Sarim Department of Computer Engineering Faculty of Engineering Bozorgmehr University of Qaenat Qaen Iran. Department of Information Technology Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology Universitas Sumatera Utara Medan Indonesia Data Mining and Optimization Research Group Center for Artificial Intelligence Technology Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 43600 UKM Bangi Selangor Malaysia

Initial population in job-shop scheduling problem (JSSP) is an essential step to obtain near optimal solution. Techniques used to solve JSSP are computationally demanding. Skipping strategy (SS) is employed to acquire initial population after sequence of job on machine and sequence of operations (expressed in Plates-jobs and mPlates-jobs) are determined. The proposed technique is applied to benchmark datasets and the results are compared to that of other initialization techniques. It is shown that the initial population obtained from the SS approach could generate optimal solution.

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Publisher Correction: Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by cataract: a meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020

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Eye (London, England) 2024年第11期38卷 2229-2231页

作者： Konrad Pesudovs Hugh R. Taylor Tabassom Sedighi Rupert R. A. Bourne Shahina Pardhan Van Charles Lansingh John H. Kempen Ian Tapply Arthur G. Fernandes Maria Vittoria Cicinelli Alessandro Arrigo Nicolas Leveziel Serge Resnikoff Seth Flaxman Mukkharram M. Bikbov Tasanee Braithwaite Alain Bron Ching-Yu Cheng Monte A. Del Monte Joshua R. Ehrlich Leon B. Ellwein David Friedman João M. Furtado Gus Gazzard Ronnie George M. Elizabeth Hartnett Jost B. Jonas Rim Kahloun Moncef Khairallah Rohit C. Khanna Janet Leasher Julie-Anne Little Vinay Nangia Michal Nowak Tunde Peto Pradeep Ramulu Fotis Topouzis Mitiadis Tsilimbaris Ya Xing Wang Ningli Wang Paul Svitil Briant Theo Vos Katrin Burkart Kaleb Coberly Xiaochen Dai Stephen S. Lim Tomislav Mestrovic Ali H. Mokdad Christopher J. L. Murray Jaimie D. Steinmetz Awoke Misganaw Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate Mohammad Abdollahi Mozhan Abdollahi Ayele Mamo Abebe Olumide Abiodun Richard Gyan Aboagye Woldu Aberhe Abrha Hasan Abualruz Hiwa Abubaker Ali Eman Abu-Gharbieh Salahdein Aburuz Tadele Girum Girum Adal Mesafint Molla Adane Isaac Yeboah Addo Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Muhammad Sohail Afzal Muhammad Umair Shahin Aghamiri Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Aqeel Ahmad Sajjad Ahmad Ali Ahmadi Siamak Sabour Ayman Ahmed Haroon Ahmed Ahmad Samir Alfaar Abid Ali Syed Shujait Shujait Ali Awais Altaf Hubert Amu Emmanuel Manu Sofia Androudi Rodrigo Anguita Abhishek Anil Rimple Jeet Kaur Muhammad Aaqib Shamim Saeid Anvari Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor Francis Appiah Jalal Arabloo Haleh Ayatollahi Mosab Arafat Damelash Areda Reza Arefnezhad Brhane Berhe Aregawi Akeza Awealom Asgedom Tahira Ashraf Seyyed Shamsadin Athari Bantalem Tilaye Tilaye Atinafu Birhan Tsegaw Taye Maha Moh’d Wahbi Atout Alok Atreya Ahmed Y. Azzam Hassan Babamohamadi Sara Bagherieh Yogesh Bahurupi Atif Amin Baig Shumaila Nargus Biswajit Banik Mainak Bardhan Saurav Basu Kavita Batra Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn Fatemeh Bazvand Addisu Shunu Beyene Awoke Masrie Asrat Derese Devidas S. Bhagat Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula Pankaj Bh Medicine & Health University of New South Wales Sydney NSW Australia School of Optometry and Vision Science University of New South Wales Sydney NSW Australia School of Population and Global Health University of Melbourne Carlton VIC Australia Vision and Eye Research Institute Anglia Ruskin University Cambridge UK HelpMeSee Instituto Mexicano de Oftalmologia Santiago de Querétaro Mexico University of Miami Gables FL USA University of Utah Salt Lake City UT USA Chief Medical Office HelpMeSee New York NY USA Mexican Institute of Ophthalmology Queretaro Mexico Department of Ophthalmology Massachusetts Eye and Ear/Shepens Eye Research Institute/Harvard Medical School Boston MA USA Eye Unit MyungSung Christian Medical Center (MCM) Comprehensive Specialized Hospital and MyungSun Medical College Addis Ababa Ethiopia Department of Ophthalmology Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa Ethiopia Sight for Souls Bellevue WA USA Department of Ophthalmology Harvard University Boston MA USA Eye Unit MyungSung Medical College Addis Ababa Ethiopia Addenbrooke’s Hospital Cambridge UK Department of Ophthalmology Cambridge University Hospitals Cambridge UK Federal University of Sao Paolo Sao Paolo SP Brazil University of Calgary Calgary AB Canada Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences Federal University of São Paulo Sao Paulo Brazil School of Medicine Vita-Salute San Raffaele University Milan Italy Department of Ophthalmology IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute Milan Italy Department of Ophthalmology San Raffaele Scientific Institute Milano Italy IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute Vita-Salute University Milan Italy Scientific Institute San Raffaele Hospital Vita-Salute University Milan Italy University of Poitiers Poitiers France CHU de Poitiers Poitiers France Ophthalmology Department CHU de Poitiers (Poitiers University Hospital) Poitiers France Unité 1084 National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM) Poitiers France

IDTxl: The information dynamics toolkit xl: A python package for the efficient analysis of multivariate information dynamics in networks

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arXiv 2018年

作者： Wollstadt, Patricia Lizier, Joseph T. Vicente, Raul Finn, Conor Martinez-Zarzuela, Mario Mediano, Pedro Novelli, Leonardo Wibral, Michael MEG Unit Brain Imaging Center Goethe-University Frankfurt Fankfurt am Main Germany Centre for Complex Systems Faculty of Engineering and IT University of Sydney SydneyNSW Australia Computational Neuroscience Lab Institute of Computer Science Tartu Estonia Data61 CSIRO EppingNSW Australia Communications and Signal Theory and Telematics Engineering University of Valladolid Valladolid Spain Computational Neurodynamics Group Department of Computing Imperial College London London United Kingdom Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization Göttingen Germany Campus Institute for Dynamics of Biological Networks Georg-August Universität Göttingen Germany

We present IDTxl (the Information Dynamics Toolkit xl), a new open source Python toolbox for effective network inference from multivariate time series using information theory, available from GitHub (https://***/pwollstadt/IDTxl). Information theory (Cover & Thomas, 2006;MacKay, 2003;Shannon, 1948) is the mathematical theory of information and its transmission over communication channels. Information theory provides quantitative measures of the information content of a single random variable (entropy) and of the information shared between two variables (mutual information). The defined measures build on probability theory and solely depend on the probability distributions of the variables involved. As a consequence, the dependence between two variables can be quantified as the information shared between them, without the need to explicitly model a specific type of dependence. Hence, mutual information is a model-free measure of dependence, which makes it a popular choice for the analysis of systems other than communication channels. Transfer entropy (TE) (Schreiber, 2000) is an extension of mutual information that measures the directed information transfer between time series of a source and a target variable. TE has become popular in many scientific disciplines to infer dependencies and whole networks from data. Notable application domains include neuroscience (Wibral, Vicente, & Lindner, 2014) and dynamical systems analysis (Lizier, Prokopenko, & Zomaya, 2014) (see Bossomaier, Barnett, Harré, & Lizier (2016) for an introduction to TE and a comprehensive discussion of its application). In the majority of the applications, TE is used in a bivariate fashion, where information transfer is quantified between all sourcetarget pairs. In a multivariate setting, however, such a bivariate analysis may infer spurious or redundant interactions, where multiple sources provide the same information about the target. Conversely, bivariate analysis may also miss synergistic

关键词： High level languages

A Web-Based Platform for People with Memory Problems and Their Caregivers (CAREGIVERSPRO-MMD):Mixed-Methods Evaluation of Usability

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JMIR Formative Research 2018年第1期2卷 e4-e4页

作者： Zafeiridi, Paraskevi Paulson, Kevin Dunn, Rosie Wolverson, Emma White, Caroline Thorpe, Jonathan Adrian Antomarini, Marco Cesaroni, Francesca Scocchera, Francesca Landrin-Dutot, Isabelle Malherbe, Laetitia Lingiah, Hendi Berard, Marie Girones, Xavier Quintana, Maria Cortes, Ulises Barrue, Cristian Cortes, Atia Paliokas, Ioannis Votis, Konstantinos Tzovaras, Dimitrios School of Engineering and Computer Science University of Hull School of Health and Social Work Aire Building Cottingham Road Hull HU67RX United Kingdom Cooperativa Sociale Onlus Marche Onlus Ancona Italy Department of Internal Medicine Geriatrics and Therapeutics Rouen University Hospital Department of Geriatrics Rouen Cedex France Faculty of Health Sciences University of Vic Central University of Catalonia Manresa Spain Knowledge Engineering & Machine Learning Group Universitat Polit cnica de Catalunya Barcelona Spain Information Technologies Institute Centre for Research and Technology Hellas Thessaloniki Greece

Background: The increasing number of people with dementia (PwD) drives research exploring Web-based support interventions to provide effective care for larger populations. In this concept, a Web-based platform (CAREGIVERSPRO-MMD, 620911) was designed to (1) improve the quality of life for PwD, (2) reduce caregiver burden, (3) reduce the financial costs for care, and (4) reduce administration time for health and social care professionals. Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the usability and usefulness of CAREGIVERSPRO-MMD platform for PwD or mild cognitive impairment (MCI), informal caregivers, and health and social care professionals with respect to a wider strategy followed by the project to enhance the user-centered approach. A secondary aim of the study was to collect recommendations to improve the platform before the future pilot study. Methods: A mixed methods design was employed for recruiting PwD or MCI (N=24), informal caregivers (N=24), and professionals (N=10). Participants were asked to rate their satisfaction, the perceived usefulness, and ease of use of each function of the platform. Qualitative questions about the improvement of the platform were asked when participants provided low scores for a function. Testing occurred at baseline and 1 week after participants used the platform. The dropout rate from baseline to the follow-up was approximately 10% (6/58). Results: After 1 week of platform use, the system was useful for 90% (20.75/23) of the caregivers and for 89% (5.36/6) of the professionals. When users responded tomore than 1 question per platform function, the mean of satisfied users per function was calculated. These user groups also provided positive evaluations for the ease of use (caregivers: 82%, 18.75/23;professionals: 97%, 5.82/6) and their satisfaction with the platform (caregivers: 79%, 18.08/23;professionals: 73%, 4.36/6). Ratings from PwD were lower than the other groups for usefulness (57%, 13/23), ease of use (41%

关键词： Caregivers Dementia Social support Technology

Exploring choice overload in related-article recommendations in digital libraries

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arXiv 2017年

作者： Beierle, Felix Aizawa, Akiko Beel, Joeran Service-centric Networking Technische Universität Berlin Telekom Innovation Laboratories Berlin Germany Digital Content and Media Sciences Research Division Tokyo Japan Trinity College Dublin School of Computer Science and Statistics Intelligent Systems Discipline Knowledge and Data Engineering Group ADAPT Centre Dublin Ireland

We investigate the problem of choice overload – the difficulty of making a decision when faced with many options – when displaying related-article recommendations in digital libraries. So far, research regarding to how many items should be displayed has mostly been done in the fields of media recommendations and search engines. We analyze the number of recommendations in current digital libraries. When browsing fullscreen with a laptop or desktop PC, all display a fixed number of recommendations. 72% display three, four, or five recommendations, none display more than ten. We provide results from an empirical evaluation conducted with GESIS’ digital library Sowiport, with recommendations delivered by recommendations-as-a-service provider Mr. DLib. We use click-through rate as a measure of recommendation effectiveness based on 3.4 million delivered recommendations. Our results show lower click-through rates for higher numbers of recommendations and twice as many clicked recommendations when displaying ten instead of one related-articles. Our results indicate that users might quickly feel overloaded by choice. Copyright © 2017, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Digital libraries

An interview based study of pioneering experiences in teaching and learning complex systems in higher education

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arXiv 2018年

作者： Lizier, Joseph T. Harré, Michael S. Mitchell, Melanie DeDeo, Simon Finn, Conor Lindgren, Kristian Lizier, Amanda L. Sayama, Hiroki Centre for Complex Systems Complex Systems Research Group Faculty of Engineering and IT University of Sydney NSW Australia Department of Computer Science Portland State University PortlandOR United States Santa Fe Institute Santa FeNM United States School of Informatics and Computing Indiana University BloomingtonIN United States Department of Social and Decision Sciences Carnegie Mellon University PittsburghPA United States CSIRO Data 61 MarsfieldNSW Australia Department of Space Earth and Environment Chalmers University of Technology Göteborg Sweden School of Education University of Technology Sydney NSW Australia Center for Collective Dynamics of Complex Systems Department of Systems Science and Industrial Engineering Binghamton University State University of New York NY United States

Due to the interdisciplinary nature of complex systems as a field, students studying complex systems at University level have diverse disciplinary backgrounds. This brings challenges (e.g. wide range of computer programming skills) but also opportunities (e.g. facilitating interdisciplinary interactions and projects) for the classroom. However, there is little published regarding how these challenges and opportunities are handled in teaching and learning Complex Systems as an explicit subject in higher education, and how this differs in comparison to other subject areas. We seek to explore these particular challenges and opportunities via an interview-based study of pioneering teachers and learners (conducted amongst the authors) regarding their experiences. We compare and contrast those experiences, and analyse them with respect to the educational literature. Our discussions explored: approaches to curriculum design, how theories/models/frameworks of teaching and learning informed decisions and experience, how diversity in student backgrounds was addressed, and assessment task design. We found a striking level of commonality in the issues expressed as well as the strategies to handle them, for example a significant focus on problem-based learning, and the use of major student-led creative projects for both achieving and assessing learning outcomes. Copyright © 2018, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Students

Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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The Lancet Rheumatology 2024年第3期6卷 e142-e155页

作者： Wu, Ai-Min Cross, Marita Elliott, James M. Culbreth, Garland T. Cousin, Ewerton Haile, Lydia M. Steinmetz, Jaimie D. Hagins, Hailey Kopec, Jacek A. Brooks, Peter M. Woolf, Anthony D. Kopansky-Giles, Deborah R. Walton, David M. Treleaven, Julia M. Dreinhoefer, Karsten E. Betteridge, Neil Abbasifard, Mitra Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Addo, Isaac Yeboah Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Aithala, Janardhana P. Alhalaiqa, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alimohamadi, Yousef Amiri, Sohrab Amu, Hubert Antony, Benny Arabloo, Jalal Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad Atomsa, Gamechu Hunde Azadnajafabad, Sina Azzam, Ahmed Y. Baghdadi, Soroush Balogun, Saliu A. Balta, Asaminew Birhanu Banach, Maciej Banakar, Morteza Barrow, Amadou Bashiri, Azadeh Bekele, Alehegn Bensenor, Isabela M. Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhat, Ajay Nagesh Bilchut, Awraris Hailu Briggs, Andrew M. Buchbinder, Rachelle Cao, Chao Chaurasia, Akhilanand Chirinos-Caceres, Jesus Lorenzo Christensen, Steffan Wittrup McPhee Coberly, Kaleb Dadras, Omid Dai, Xiaochen de Luca, Katie Dehghan, Azizallah Dong, Huan-Ji Ekholuenetale, Michael Elhadi, Muhammed Eshetu, Habitu Birhan Eskandarieh, Sharareh Etaee, Farshid Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis Fares, Jawad Fatehizadeh, Ali Feizkhah, Alireza Ferreira, Manuela L. Ferreira, Nuno Fischer, Florian Franklin, Richard Charles Ganesan, Balasankar Gebremichael, Mathewos Alemu Gerema, Urge Gholami, Ali Ghozy, Sherief Gill, Tiffany K. Golechha, Mahaveer Goleij, Pouya Golinelli, Davide Graham, Simon Matthew Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin Harlianto, Netanja I. Hartvigsen, Jan Hasanian, Mohammad Hassen, Mohammed Bheser Hay, Simon I. Hebert, Jeffrey J. Heidari, Golnaz Hoveidaei, Amir Human Hsiao, Alexander Kevin Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel Iwu, Chidozie C.D. Jacob, Louis Janodia, Manthan Dilipkumar Jin, Yingzhao Jonas, Jost B. Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma Kandel, Himal Khader, Yousef Saleh Khajuria, Himanshu Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Moien A.B. Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad Khateri, Sorour Khayat Kashani, Hamid Reza Khonji, Mohammad Saeid Department of Orthopaedics The Second Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University Wenzhou China Faculty of Medicine and Health University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health Sydney NSW Australia Kolling Institute of Medical Research University of Sydney Northern Sydney Local Health District St Leonards NSW Australia Department of Physical Therapy and Human Movement Sciences Northwestern University Chicago IL United States Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States School of Population and Public Health University of British Columbia Vancouver BC Canada Arthritis Research Canada Richmond BC Canada US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Birmingham AL United States Centre for Health Policy University of Melbourne Melbourne VIC Australia Bone and Joint Research Group Royal Cornwall Hospital Truro United Kingdom Department of Family and Community Medicine University of Toronto Toronto ON Canada Department of Research and Innovation Canadian Memorial Chiropractic College Toronto ON Canada Department of Physical Therapy University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia School of Physical Therapy Western University London ON Canada School of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences The University of Queensland Brisbane Australia Center of Musculoskeletal Surgery Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin (Charité Medical University Berlin) Berlin Germany London United Kingdom Department of Internal Medicine Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences Rafsanjan Iran Clinical Research Development Unit Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences Rafsanjan Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Non-communicable Diseases Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Centre for Social Research in Health University of New South Wales Sydney NSW

Background: Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods: Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution. Findings: Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163–253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960–3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165–346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [–1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330–3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600–2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219–322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9–42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing. Interpretation: Although age-standardi

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