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arXiv 2025年

作者： Gijón, Alfonso Eiraudo, Simone Manjavacas, Antonio Schiera, Daniele Salvatore Molina-Solana, Miguel Gómez-Romero, Juan Department of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Universidad de Granada Granada18071 Spain Energy Center Lab Politecnico di Torino Torino10138 Italy Deparment of Informatics and Numerical Analysis Universidad de Córdoba Córdoba14014 Spain

The rapid growth of the wind energy sector underscores the urgent need to optimize turbine operations and ensure effective maintenance through early fault detection systems. While traditional empirical and physics-based models offer approximate predictions of power generation based on wind speed, they often fail to capture the complex, non-linear relationships between other input variables and the resulting power output. Data-driven machine learning methods present a promising avenue for improving wind turbine modeling by leveraging large datasets, enhancing prediction accuracy but often at the cost of interpretability. In this study, we propose a hybrid semi-parametric model that combines the strengths of both approaches, applied to a dataset from a wind farm with four turbines. The model integrates a physics-inspired submodel, providing a reasonable approximation of power generation, with a non-parametric submodel that predicts the residuals. This non-parametric submodel is trained on a broader range of variables to account for phenomena not captured by the physics-based component. The hybrid model achieves a 37% improvement in prediction accuracy over the physics-based model. To enhance interpretability, SHAP values are used to analyze the influence of input features on the residual submodel’s output. Additionally, prediction uncertainties are quantified using a conformalized quantile regression method. The combination of these techniques, alongside the physics grounding of the parametric submodel, provides a flexible, accurate, and reliable framework. Ultimately, this study opens the door for evaluating the impact of unmodeled variables on wind turbine power generation, offering a basis for potential optimization. © 2025, CC BY.

关键词： Windmill

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