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Developing a Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict the Probability of Medical Staff Work Mode Using Human-Smartphone Interaction Patterns: Algorithm Development and Validation Study

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Journal of medical Internet research 2023年 25卷 e48834页

作者： Chen, Hung-Hsun Lu, Henry Horng-Shing Weng, Wei-Hung Lin, Yu-Hsuan Department of Mathematics Fu Jen Catholic University New Taipei City Taiwan Program of Artificial Intelligence & Information Security Fu-Jen Catholic University New Taipei City Taiwan Institute of Statistics National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University Hsinchu Taiwan Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University Ithaca NY United States Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MN United States Institute of Population Health Sciences National Health Research Institutes Miaoli County Taiwan Department of Psychiatry National Taiwan University Hospital Taipei Taiwan Department of Psychiatry College of Medicine National Taiwan University Taipei Taiwan

BACKGROUND: Traditional methods for investigating work hours rely on an employee's physical presence at the worksite. However, accurately identifying break times at the worksite and distinguishing remote work outside the worksite poses challenges in work hour estimations. Machine learning has the potential to differentiate between human-smartphone interactions at work and off work. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to develop a novel approach called "probability in work mode," which leverages human-smartphone interaction patterns and corresponding GPS location data to estimate work hours. METHODS: To capture human-smartphone interactions and GPS locations, we used the "Staff Hours" app, developed by our team, to passively and continuously record participants' screen events, including timestamps of notifications, screen on or off occurrences, and app usage patterns. Extreme gradient boosted trees were used to transform these interaction patterns into a probability, while 1-dimensional convolutional neural networks generated successive probabilities based on previous sequence probabilities. The resulting probability in work mode allowed us to discern periods of office work, off-work, breaks at the worksite, and remote work. RESULTS: Our study included 121 participants, contributing to a total of 5503 person-days (person-days represent the cumulative number of days across all participants on which data were collected and analyzed). The developed machine learning model exhibited an average prediction performance, measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, of 0.915 (SD 0.064). Work hours estimated using the probability in work mode (higher than 0.5) were significantly longer (mean 11.2, SD 2.8 hours per day) than the GPS-defined counterparts (mean 10.2, SD 2.3 hours per day;P<.001). This discrepancy was attributed to the higher remote work time of 111.6 (SD 106.4) minutes compared to the break time of 54.7 (SD 74.5) minutes. CONCLUSIONS: Our

关键词： deep learning digital phenotyping extreme gradient-boosted trees human-smartphone interaction machine learning one-dimensional convolutional neural network probability in work mode work hours

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Modeling the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in East Java using negative binomial regression based on least square spline estimator

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AIP Conference Proceedings 2024年第1期3083卷

作者： Arip Ramadan Nur Chamidah I. Nyoman Budiantara Student of Doctoral Study Program of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Faculty of Science and Technology Airlangga University Surabaya 60115 Indonesia. Department of Information System School of Industrial and System Engineering Telkom University Surabaya 60231 Indonesia. Department of Mathematics Faculty of Science and Technology Airlangga University Surabaya 60115 Indonesia. Research Group of Statistical Modeling in Life Science Faculty of Science and Technology Airlangga University Surabaya 60115 Indonesia. Department of Statistics Faculty of Sciences and Data Analytics Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology Surabaya 60111 Indonesia.

The East Java Province has experienced a significant surge in number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. This study endeavors to investigate the potential correlation between weather conditions and the incidence of number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in East Java. To achieve this, a nonparametric regression model, specifically, the Negative Binomial Regression (NBR) model based on the least squares spline estimator, was utilized. The outcomes of the study indicate that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of nonparametic regression model is 0.30. Meanwhile, the MAPE for the parametric regression model is 0.34. The results show that a nonparametric regression model approach is better than parametric regression model approach. The study establishes that the truncated spline estimator based NBR model represents the best fit, with an MLCV value of -256.71. The findings of the study suggest that a temperature less than 21.75°C is associated with a decrease of 13.28 number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 per each 1°C increase, while a temperature between 21.75°C and 25.78°C is linked to an increase of 6.85 number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 per each 1°C increase. In contrast, a temperature greater than 25.78°C is associated with a decrease of 139.42 number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 per each 1°C increase. Similarly, a wind speed less than 5.57 m/s is related to a decrease of 12.99 number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 per each 1 m/s increase, whereas a wind speed between 5.57 m/s and 8.99 m/s is associated with a decrease of 10.29 number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 per each 1 m/s increase. Furthermore, a wind speed greater than 8.99 m/s is linked to a decrease of 19.16 number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 per each 1 m/s increase. The study provides evidence that higher temperatures and wind speeds result in a slower rise in the incidence of the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. Consequently, it is recommended that the local government remains vigilant du

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Mining player in-game time spending regularity for churn prediction in free online games

Mining player in-game time spending regularity for churn pre...

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2019 IEEE Conference on Games, CoG 2019

作者： Yang, Wanshan Huang, Ting Zeng, Junlin Yang, Gemeng Cai, Jintian Chen, Lijun Mishra, Shivakant Liu, Youjian Eugene Department of Computer Science University of Colorado Boulder BoulderCO United States Department of Data Analytics Yoozoo Games Shanghai China Department of Statistical Sciences University of Toronto TorontoON Canada Department of Electrical Computer and Energy Engineering University of Colorado Boulder BoulderCO United States

ISBN: (纸本)9781728118840

In the free online game industry, churn prediction is an important research topic. Reducing churn rate of a game significantly helps with the success of the game. Churn prediction helps a game operator identify possible churning players and keep them engaged in the game via appropriate operational strategies, marketing strategies, and/or incentives. Most churn prediction models are based on game-specific features, which limits their applicability to other games that do not share those features. In this paper, we consider developing universal features for churn predictions for long-term players. In particular, we mine player time spending regularity from data sets of two free online games. We leverage information from players' in-game time spending regularity in the form of universal features for churn prediction. Experiments show that our developed features are better at predicting churners, compared to the baseline features. The performance of our developed features is satisfactory even without game-specific features. © 2019 IEEE.

关键词： data mining

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*** - A plug-and-play solution for online systems medicine and network-based drug repurposing

arXiv

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Maier, Andreas Hartung, Michael Abovsky, Mark Adamowicz, Klaudia Bader, Gary D. Baier, Sylvie Blumenthal, David B. Chen, Jing Elkjaer, Maria L. Garcia-Hernandez, Carlos Helmy, Mohamed Hoffmann, Markus Jurisica, Igor Kotlyar, Max Lazareva, Olga Levi, Hagai List, Markus Lobentanzer, Sebastian Loscalzo, Joseph Malod-Dognin, Noel Manz, Quirin Matschinske, Julian Mee, Miles Oubounyt, Mhaned Pico, Alexander R. Pillich, Rudolf T. Poschenrieder, Julian M. Pratt, Dexter Pržulj, Nataša Sadegh, Sepideh Saez-Rodriguez, Julio Sarkar, Suryadipto Shaked, Gideon Shamir, Ron Trummer, Nico Turhan, Ugur Wang, Ruisheng Zolotareva, Olga Baumbach, Jan Institute for Computational Systems Biology University of Hamburg Hamburg Germany Division of Orthopaedic Surgery Schroeder Arthritis Institute Data Science Discovery Centre Osteoarthritis Research Program Krembil Research Institute UHN Toronto Canada Data Science Discovery Centre for Chronic Diseases Krembil Research Institute University Health Network 60 Leonard Avenue 5KD-407 TorontoONM5T 0S8 Canada Department of Molecular Genetics University of Toronto TorontoON Canada The Donnelly Centre University of Toronto TorontoON Canada Department of Computer Science University of Toronto TorontoON Canada Princess Margaret Cancer Centre University Health Network TorontoON Canada The Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute Mount Sinai Hospital TorontoON Canada TUM School of Life Sciences Technical University of Munich Munich Germany Erlangen91052 Germany Department of Medicine University of California San Diego 9500 Gilman Drive La Jolla CA92093 United States Department of Neurology Odense University Hospital Odense Denmark Institute of Clinical Research University of Southern Denmark Odense Denmark Institute of Molecular Medicine University of Southern Denmark Odense Denmark Barcelona08034 Spain Institute for Advanced Study Lichtenbergstrasse 2a GarchingD-85748 Germany Technical University of Munich Germany National Institute of Diabetes Digestive and Kidney Diseases BethesdaMD20892 United States Departments of Medical Biophysics and Computer Science University of Toronto Toronto Canada Institute of Neuroimmunology Slovak Academy of Sciences Bratislava Slovakia Heidelberg69120 Germany Heidelberg Germany European Molecular Biology Laboratory Genome Biology Unit Heidelberg69117 Germany Blavatnik School of Computer Science Tel-Aviv University Tel-Aviv Israel Heidelberg University Faculty of Medicine Heidelberg University Hospital Institute for Computational Biomedicine Bioquant Heidelberg Germany Department of Medicine Bri

In recent decades, the development of new drugs has become increasingly expensive and inefficient, and the molecular mechanisms of most pharmaceuticals remain poorly understood. In response, computational systems and network medicine tools have emerged to identify potential drug repurposing candidates. However, these tools often require complex installation and lack intuitive visual network mining capabilities. To tackle these challenges, we introduce ***, a platform that assists specialized computational medicine tools in becoming user-friendly, web-based utilities for drug repurposing. With just three lines of code, *** turns any systems biology software into an interactive web tool for modeling and analyzing complex protein-drug-disease networks. Demonstrating its broad adaptability, *** has been successfully integrated with 21 computational systems medicine tools. Available at https://***, *** has significant potential for streamlining the drug discovery process, allowing researchers to focus on essential aspects of pharmaceutical treatment research. © 2023, CC BY.

关键词： data visualization

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Exploration of Dark Chemical Genomics Space via Portal Learning: Applied to Targeting the Undruggable Genome and COVID-19 Anti-Infective Polypharmacology

Research Square

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Research Square 2021年

作者： Cai, Tian Xie, Li Chen, Muge Liu, Yang He, Di Zhang, Shuo Mura, Cameron Bourne, Philip E. Xie, Lei Ph.D. Program in Computer Science The Graduate Center The City University of New York New York10016 United States Department of Computer Science Hunter College The City University of New York New York10065 United States Master Program in Computer Science Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences New York University United States School of Data Science Department of Biomedical Engineering University of Virginia VA22903 United States Helen and Robert Appel Alzheimer’s Disease Research Institute Feil Family Brain & Mind Research Institute Weill Cornell Medicine Cornell University New York10021 United States

Advances in biomedicine are largely fueled by exploring uncharted territories of human biology. Machine learning can both enable and accelerate discovery, but faces a fundamental hurdle when applied to unseen data with distributions that differ from previously observed ones—a common dilemma in scientific inquiry. We have developed a new deep learning framework, called Portal Learning, to explore dark chemical and biological space. Three key, novel components of our approach include: (i) end-to-end, step-wise transfer learning, in recognition of biology’s sequence-structure-function paradigm, (ii) out-of-cluster meta-learning, and (iii) stress model selection. Portal Learning provides a practical solution to the out-of-distribution (OOD) problem in statistical machine learning. Here, we have implemented Portal Learning to predict chemical-protein interactions on a genome-wide scale. Systematic studies demonstrate that Portal Learning can effectively assign ligands to unexplored gene families (unknown functions), versus existing state-of-the-art methods. Compared with AlphaFold2-based protein-ligand docking, Portal Learning significantly improved the performance by 79% in PR-AUC and 27% in ROC-AUC, respectively. The superior performance of Portal Learning allowed us to target previously "undruggable" proteins and design novel polypharmacological agents for disrupting interactions between SARS-CoV-2 and human proteins. Portal Learning is general-purpose and can be further applied to other areas of scientific inquiry. © 2021, CC BY.

关键词： Coronavirus

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Exploration of dark chemical genomics space via portal learning: Applied to targeting the undruggable genome and COVID-19 anti-infective polypharmacology

arXiv

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arXiv 2021年

Advances in biomedicine are largely fueled by exploring uncharted territories of human biology. Machine learning can both enable and accelerate discovery, but faces a fundamental hurdle when applied to unseen data with distributions that differ from previously observed ones—a common dilemma in scientific inquiry. We have developed a new deep learning framework, called Portal Learning, to explore dark chemical and biological space. Three key, novel components of our approach include: (i) end-to-end, step-wise transfer learning, in recognition of biology’s sequence-structure-function paradigm, (ii) out-of-cluster meta-learning, and (iii) stress model selection. Portal Learning provides a practical solution to the out-of-distribution (OOD) problem in statistical machine learning. Here, we have implemented Portal Learning to predict chemical-protein interactions on a genome-wide scale. Systematic studies demonstrate that Portal Learning can effectively assign ligands to unexplored gene families (unknown functions), versus existing state-of-the-art methods, thereby allowing us to target previously "undruggable" proteins and design novel polypharmacological agents for disrupting interactions between SARS-CoV-2 and human proteins. Portal Learning is general-purpose and can be further applied to other areas of scientific *** Codes 68T07 © 2021, CC BY.

关键词： Genes

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When data disappear: public health pays as US policy strays

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The Lancet Digital Health 2025年 100874页

作者： McAndrew, Thomas Lover, Andrew A Hoyt, Garrik Majumder, Maimuna S Department of Biostatistics and Health Data Science College of Health Lehigh University BethlehemPA United States Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology School of Public Health and Health Sciences University of Massachusetts Amherst AmherstMA United States Department of Computer Science and Engineering PC Rossin College of Engineering and Applied Sciences Lehigh University BethlehemPA United States Department of Pediatrics Harvard Medical School BostonMA United States Computational Health Informatics Program Boston Children's Hospital BostonMA United States

Presidential actions on Jan 20, 2025, by President Donald Trump, including executive orders, have delayed access to or led to the removal of crucial public health data sources in the USA. The continuous collection and maintenance of health data support public health, safety, and security associated with diseases such as seasonal influenza. To show how public health data surveillance enhances public health practice, we analysed data from seven US Government-maintained sources associated with seasonal influenza. We fit two models that forecast the number of national incident influenza hospitalisations in the USA: (1) a data-rich model incorporating data from all seven Government data sources;and (2) a data-poor model built using a single Government hospitalisation data source, representing the minimal required information to produce a forecast of influenza hospitalisations. The data-rich model generated reliable forecasts useful for public health decision making, whereas the predictions using the data-poor model were highly uncertain, rendering them impractical. Thus, health data can serve as a transparent and standardised foundation to improve domestic and global health. Therefore, a plan should be developed to safeguard public health data as a public good. © 2025 The Author(s)

关键词： Health insurance

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Deciphering colorectal cancer genetics through multi-omic analysis of 100,204 cases and 154,587 controls of European and east Asian ancestries (vol 55, pg 89, 2023)

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NATURE GENETICS 2023年第3期55卷 519-520页

作者： Fernandez-Rozadilla, Ceres Timofeeva, Maria Chen, Zhishan Law, Philip Thomas, Minta Schmit, Stephanie Diez-Obrero, Virginia Hsu, Li Fernandez-Tajes, Juan Palles, Claire Sherwood, Kitty Briggs, Sarah Svinti, Victoria Donnelly, Kevin Farrington, Susan Blackmur, James Vaughan-Shaw, Peter Shu, Xiao-ou Long, Jirong Cai, Qiuyin Guo, Xingyi Lu, Yingchang Broderick, Peter Studd, James Huyghe, Jeroen Harrison, Tabitha Conti, David Dampier, Christopher Devall, Mathew Schumacher, Fredrick Melas, Marilena Rennert, Gad Obon-Santacana, Mireia Martin-Sanchez, Vicente Moratalla-Navarro, Ferran Oh, Jae Hwan Kim, Jeongseon Jee, Sun Ha Jung, Keum Ji Kweon, Sun-Seog Shin, Min-Ho Shin, Aesun Ahn, Yoon-Ok Kim, Dong-Hyun Oze, Isao Wen, Wanqing Matsuo, Keitaro Matsuda, Koichi Tanikawa, Chizu Ren, Zefang Gao, Yu-Tang Jia, Wei-Hua Hopper, John Jenkins, Mark Win, Aung Ko Pai, Rish Figueiredo, Jane Haile, Robert Gallinger, Steven Woods, Michael Newcomb, Polly Duggan, David Cheadle, Jeremy Kaplan, Richard Maughan, Timothy Kerr, Rachel Kerr, David Kirac, Iva Bohm, Jan Mecklin, Lukka-Pekka Jousilahti, Pekka Knekt, Paul Aaltonen, Lauri Rissanen, Harri Pukkala, Eero Eriksson, Johan Cajuso, Tatiana Hanninen, Ulrika Kondelin, Johanna Palin, Kimmo Tanskanen, Tomas Renkonen-Sinisalo, Laura Zanke, Brent Mannisto, Satu Albanes, Demetrius Weinstein, Stephanie Ruiz-Narvaez, Edward Palmer, Julie Buchanan, Daniel Platz, Elizabeth Visvanathan, Kala Ulrich, Cornelia Siegel, Erin Brezina, Stefanie Gsur, Andrea Campbell, Peter Chang-Claude, Jenny Hoffmeister, Michael Brenner, Hermann Slattery, Martha Potter, John Tsilidis, Konstantinos Schulze, Matthias Gunter, Marc Murphy, Neil Castells, Antoni Castellvi-Bel, Sergi Moreira, Leticia Arndt, Volker Shcherbina, Anna Stern, Mariana Pardamean, Bens Bishop, Timothy Giles, Graham Southey, Melissa Idos, Gregory McDonnell, Kevin Abu-Ful, Zomoroda Greenson, Joel Shulman, Katerina Lejbkowicz, Flavio Offit, Kenneth Su, Yu-Ru Steinfelder, Robert Keku, Temitope van Guelpen, Bethany Hudson, Thomas Hampel, Heather Pearlman, Edinburgh Cancer Research Centre Institute of Genomics and Cancer University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK Genomic Medicine Group Instituto de Investigacion Sanitaria de Santiago Santiago de Compostela Spain Colon Cancer Genetics Group Medical Research Council Human Genetics Unit Institute of Genetics and Cancer University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK Danish Institute for Advanced Study Department of Public Health University of Southern Denmark Odense Denmark Division of Epidemiology Department of Medicine Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center Vanderbilt University Medical Center Nashville TN USA Division of Genetics and Epidemiology Institute of Cancer Research London UK Public Health Sciences Division Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center Seattle WA USA Genomic Medicine Institute Cleveland Clinic Cleveland OH USA Population and Cancer Prevention Program Case Comprehensive Cancer Center Cleveland OH USA Colorectal Cancer Group ONCOBELL Program Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute Barcelona Spain Oncology Data Analytics Program Catalan Institute of Oncology Barcelona Spain Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health Madrid Madrid Spain Department of Clinical Sciences Faculty of Medicine University of Barcelona Barcelona Spain Department of Biostatistics School of Public Health University of Washington Seattle WA USA Institute of Cancer and Genomic Sciences College of Medical and Dental Sciences University of Birmingham Birmingham UK Department of Public Health Richard Doll Building University of Oxford Oxford UK Department of Biomedical Informatics Vanderbilt University School of Medicine Nashville TN USA Department of Preventive Medicine USC Norris Comprehensive Cancer Center Keck School of Medicine University of Southern California Los Angeles CA USA Center for Public Health Genomics Department of Public Health Sciences University of Virginia Charlottesville VA USA Department of Populat

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of mortality worldwide. We conducted a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of 100,204 CRC cases and 154,587 controls of European and east Asian ancestry, identifying 205 independent risk associations, of which 50 were unreported. We performed integrative genomic, transcriptomic and methylomic analyses across large bowel mucosa and other tissues. Transcriptome- and methylome-wide association studies revealed an additional 53 risk associations. We identified 155 high-confidence effector genes functionally linked to CRC risk, many of which had no previously established role in CRC. These have multiple different functions and specifically indicate that variation in normal colorectal homeostasis, proliferation, cell adhesion, migration, immunity and microbial interactions determines CRC risk. Crosstissue analyses indicated that over a third of effector genes most probably act outside the colonic mucosa. Our findings provide insights into colorectal oncogenesis and highlight potential targets across tissues for new CRC treatment and chemoprevention strategies.

关键词： Colorectal cancer Epigenomics Genome-wide association studies Transcriptomics

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Re-evaluation of the comparative effectiveness of bootstrapbased optimism correction methods in the development of multivariable clinical prediction models

arXiv

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arXiv 2020年

作者： Iba, Katsuhiro Shinozaki, Tomohiro Maruo, Kazushi Noma, Hisashi Department of Statistical Science School of Multidisciplinary Sciences Graduate University for Advanced Studies Tokyo Japan Office of Biostatistics Department of Biometrics Headquarters of Clinical Development Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. Tokyo Japan Department of Information and Computer Technology Faculty of Engineering Tokyo Singapore University of Science Tokyo Japan Department of Biostatistics Faculty of Medicine University of Tsukuba Ibaraki Japan Department of Data Science Institute of Statistical Mathematics Tokyo Japan

Background: Multivariable prediction models are important statistical tools for providing synthetic diagnosis and prognostic algorithms based on patients' multiple characteristics. Their apparent measures for predictive accuracy usually have overestimation biases (known as 'optimism') relative to the actual performances for external populations. Existing statistical evidence and guidelines suggest that three bootstrap-based bias correction methods are preferable in practice, namely Harrell's bias correction and the .632 and .632+ estimators. Although Harrell's method has been widely adopted in clinical studies, simulation-based evidence indicates that the .632+ estimator may perform better than the other two methods. However, these methods' actual comparative effectiveness is still unclear due to limited numerical evidence. Methods: We conducted extensive simulation studies to compare the effectiveness of these three bootstrapping methods, particularly using various model building strategies: Conventional logistic regression, stepwise variable selections, Firth's penalized likelihood method, ridge, lasso, and elastic-net regression. We generated the simulation data based on the GUSTO-I trial dataset and considered how event per variable, event fraction, number of candidate predictors, and the regression coefficients of the predictors impacted the performances. The internal validity of C-statistics was evaluated. Results: Under relatively large sample settings (roughly, events per variable ≥ 10), the three bootstrap-based methods were comparable and performed well. However, all three methods had biases under small sample settings, and the directions and sizes of biases were inconsistent. In general, Harrell's and .632 methods had overestimation biases when event fraction become lager. Besides, .632+ method had a slight underestimation bias when event fraction was very small. Although the bias of the .632+ estimator was relatively small, its RMSE was comparable or som

关键词： statistical mechanics

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Analysis of sloppiness in model simulations: unveiling parameter uncertainty when mathematical models are fitted to data

arXiv

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arXiv 2022年

作者： Monsalve-Bravo, Gloria M. Lawson, Brodie A.J. Drovandi, Christopher Burrage, Kevin Brown, Kevin S. Baker, Christopher M. Vollert, Sarah A. Mengersen, Kerrie McDonald-Madden, Eve Adams, Matthew P. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Queensland St LuciaQLD4072 Australia Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science The University of Queensland St LuciaQLD4072 Australia School of Chemical Engineering The University of Queensland St LuciaQLD4072 Australia Centre for Data Science Queensland University of Technology BrisbaneQLD4001 Australia ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers Queensland University of Technology BrisbaneQLD4001 Australia School of Mathematical Sciences Queensland University of Technology BrisbaneQLD4001 Australia ARC Centre of Excellence for Plant Success in Nature and Agriculture Queensland University of Technology BrisbaneQLD4001 Australia Department of Computer Science University of Oxford OxfordOX1 3QD United Kingdom Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences Oregon State University CorvallisOR97331 United States Department of Chemical Biological & Environmental Engineering Oregon State University CorvallisOR97331 United States School of Mathematics and Statistics The University of Melbourne ParkvilleVIC3010 Australia Melbourne Centre for Data Science The University of Melbourne ParkvilleVIC3010 Australia Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis The University of Melbourne ParkvilleVIC3010 Australia

This work introduces a comprehensive approach to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in parameter values, constrained by the combination of prior beliefs and data. This novel approach identifies stiff parameter combinations strongly affecting the quality of the model-data fit while simultaneously revealing which of these key parameter combinations are informed primarily by the data or are also substantively influenced by the priors. We focus on the very common context in complex systems where the amount and quality of data are low compared to the number of model parameters to be collectively estimated, and showcase the benefits of this technique for applications in biochemistry, ecology, and cardiac electrophysiology. We also show how stiff parameter combinations, once identified, uncover controlling mechanisms underlying the system being modeled and inform which of the model parameters need to be prioritized in future experiments for improved parameter inference from collective model-data fitting. Copyright © 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Uncertainty analysis

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