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Risk Management in Stochastic Problems of Stock Investment 13

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Risk Management in Stochastic Problems of Stock Investment

13th International Conference Management of Large-Scale System Development, MLSD 2020

作者： Gorelik, Victor Zolotova, Tatiana Moscow State Pedagogical University Department of Simulation Systems and Operations Research Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science Dorodnicyn Computing Centre Frc Csc Ras Moscow Russia Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Department of Data Analysis Decision Making and Financial Technologies Moscow Russia

ISBN: (数字)9781728110943

ISBN: (纸本)9781728110943

We consider a game with nature as a decision-making model in stochastic problems of stock investment. The mathematical expectation of the investor's gain is taken as an assessment of efficiency. The standard deviation is used as an assessment of risk. The emerging two-criterion problem is formalized using the method of translating one criterion into a constraint. The case of pure strategies (the choice of one investment option) and the case of mixed strategies (diversification of investment) are considered. For the case of mixed strategies, either the problem of maximizing a linear function with one linear and one quadratic constraint or the problem of minimizing a quadratic function with two linear constraints arises. Analytical solution methods based on the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions are obtained for both problems. Practical examples of the application of these methods using real statistical data are given. © 2020 IEEE.

关键词： Investments

Robust distributed and localized model predictive control

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arXiv 2021年

作者： Alonso, Carmen Amo Li, Jing Shuang Matni, Nikolai Anderson, James Computing and Mathematical Sciences Department California Institute of Technology PasadenaCA United States Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering University of Pennsylvania PhiladelphiaPA United States Department of Electrical Engineering Data Science Institute Columbia University New YorkNY United States

We present a robust Distributed and Localized Model Predictive Control (rDLMPC) framework for large-scale structured linear systems. The proposed algorithm uses the System Level Synthesis to provide a distributed closed-loop model predictive control scheme that is robust to exogenous disturbances. The resulting controllers require only local information exchange for both synthesis and implementation. We exploit the fact that for polytopic disturbance constraints, SLS-based distributed control problems have been shown to have structure amenable for distributed optimization techniques. We show that similar to the disturbance-free DLMPC algorithm, the computational complexity of rDLMPC is independent of the size of the global system. To the best of our knowledge, robust DLMPC is the first MPC algorithm that allows for the scalable distributed computation of distributed closed-loop control policies in the presence of additive disturbances. Copyright © 2021, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Model predictive control

Quantifying knowledge synchronisation in the 21st century

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arXiv 2022年

作者： Yoon, Jisung Park, Jinseo Yun, Jinhyuk Jung, Woo-Sung Department Of Industrial And Management Engineering Pohang University Of Science And Technology Pohang37673 Korea Republic of Center For Complex Networks And Systems Research Luddy School Of Informatics Computing And Engineering Indiana University BloomingtonIN47408 United States Center For Global R&D Data Analysis Korea Institute Of Science And Technology Information Seoul02456 Korea Republic of School Of AI Convergence Soongsil University Seoul06978 Korea Republic of Department Of Physics Pohang University Of Science And Technology Pohang37673 Korea Republic of

Humans acquire and accumulate knowledge through language usage and eagerly exchange their knowledge for advancement. Although geographical barriers had previously limited communication, the emergence of information technology has opened new avenues for knowledge exchange. However, it is unclear which communication pathway is dominant in the 21st century. Here, we explore the dominant path of knowledge diffusion in the 21st century using Wikipedia, the largest communal dataset. We evaluate the similarity of shared knowledge between population groups, distinguished based on their language usage. When population groups are more engaged with each other, their knowledge structure is more similar, where engagement is indicated by socioeconomic connections, such as cultural, linguistic, and historical features. Moreover, geographical proximity is no longer a critical requirement for knowledge dissemination. Furthermore, we integrate our data into a mechanistic model to better understand the underlying mechanism and suggest that the knowledge "Silk Road" of the 21st century is based online. © 2022, CC BY.

关键词： Knowledge management

What we should learn from pandemic publishing

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Sikdar, Satyaki Venturini, Sara Charpignon, Marie-Laure Kumar, Sagar Rinaldi, Francesco Tudisco, Francesco Fortunato, Santo Majumder, Maimuna S. Luddy School of Informatics Computing and Engineering Indiana University BloomingtonIN United States Department of Computer Science Loyola University Chicago ChicagoIL United States Senseable City Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology CambridgeMA United States Department of Mathematics "Tullio Levi-Civita" University of Padova Padova Italy Institute for Data Systems and Society Massachusetts Institute of Technology CambridgeMA United States Network Science Institute Northeastern University BostonMA United States School of Mathematics The University of Edinburgh Edinburgh United Kingdom School of Mathematics Gran Sasso Science Institute L’Aquila Italy Department of Pediatrics Harvard Medical School BostonMA United States Computational Health Informatics Program Boston Children’s Hospital BostonMA United States

Since the emergence of COVID-19, discussions of ongoing pandemic-related research have accounted for an unprecedented share of media coverage and debate in the public sphere1. The urgency of the pandemic forced researchers to operate on an accelerated timeline, as both policymakers and the public relied on the most current evidence to guide their decisions and behaviors. With high demand for rapid pandemic-related insights and lower barriers to entry via preprint servers, the volume of COVID-19 articles skyrocketed2. The pressing need for research triggered the participation of many researchers with expertise in the science of infectious disease outbreaks (‘outbreak scientists’), who were joined by researchers from other disciplines (‘bellwethers’) and more junior researchers still in training (‘newcomers’) with the common goal of advancing the frontiers of pandemic science and informing policy decisions3. Please see Box 1 for details of this taxonomy. © 2024, CC BY-NC-ND.

关键词： COVID-19

EXPLAINABLE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (XAI) 2.0: A MANIFESTO OF OPEN CHALLENGES AND INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Longo, Luca Brcic, Mario Cabitza, Federico Choi, Jaesik Confalonieri, Roberto Ser, Javier Del Guidotti, Riccardo Hayashi, Yoichi Herrera, Francisco Holzinger, Andreas Jiang, Richard Khosravi, Hassan Lecue, Freddy Malgieri, Gianclaudio Páez, Andrés Samek, Wojciech Schneider, Johannes Speith, Timo Stumpf, Simone The Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Load Research Lab Technological University Dublin Ireland University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing Croatia University of Milano-Bicocca Milan Italy IRCCS Ospedale Galeazzi Sant’Ambrogio Milan Italy Kim Jaechul Graduate School of AI Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology Korea Republic of INEEJI Corporation Korea Republic of Department of Mathematics University of Padua Italy Derio Spain Bilbao Spain University of Pisa Pisa Italy Department of Computer Science Meiji University Tokyo Japan Department of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence DaSCI Andalusian Institute in Data Science & Computational Intelligence University of Granada Granada Spain Human-Centered AI Lab University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna Austria School of Computing and Communications Lancaster University United Kingdom The University of Queensland Brisbane Australia Sophia Antipolis France eLaw Center for Law and Digital Technologies Leiden University Netherlands Department of Philosophy Universidad de los Andes Bogotá Colombia Center for Research & Formation in Artificial Intelligence Universidad de los Andes Bogotá Colombia Technical University of Berlin Berlin Germany Fraunhofer Heinrich Hertz Institute Berlin Germany Berlin Germany Department of Information Systems and Computer Science University of Liechtenstein Liechtenstein Liechtenstein Department of Philosophy University of Bayreuth Bayreuth Germany Center for Perspicuous Computing Saarland University Saarbrücken Germany School of Computing Science University of Glasgow United Kingdom

As systems based on opaque Artificial Intelligence (AI) continue to flourish in diverse real-world applications, understanding these black box models has become paramount. In response, Explainable AI (XAI) has emerged as a field of research with practical and ethical benefits across various domains. This paper not only highlights the advancements in XAI and its application in real-world scenarios but also addresses the ongoing challenges within XAI, emphasizing the need for broader perspectives and collaborative efforts. We bring together experts from diverse fields to identify open problems, striving to synchronize research agendas and accelerate XAI in practical applications. By fostering collaborative discussion and interdisciplinary cooperation, we aim to propel XAI forward, contributing to its continued success. Our goal is to put forward a comprehensive proposal for advancing XAI. To achieve this goal, we present a manifesto of 27 open problems categorized into nine categories. These challenges encapsulate the complexities and nuances of XAI and offer a road map for future research. For each problem, we provide promising research directions in the hope of harnessing the collective intelligence of interested stakeholders. © 2023, CC BY-SA.

关键词： Ethical technology

Hyperbolic feature augmentation via distribution estimation and infinite sampling on manifolds 22

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Hyperbolic feature augmentation via distribution estimation ...

Proceedings of the 36th International Conference on Neural Information Processing systems

作者： Zhi Gao Yuwei Wu Yunde Jia Mehrtash Harandi Beijing Lab of Intellegent Information Technology School of Computer Science Beijing Institute of Technology China Beijing Lab of Intellegent Information Technology School of Computer Science Beijing Institute of Technology China and Guangdong Lab of Machine Perception and Intelligent Computing Shenzhen MSU-BIT University China Guangdong Lab of Machine Perception and Intelligent Computing Shenzhen MSU-BIT University China and Beijing Lab of Intellegent Information Technology School of Computer Science Beijing Institute of Technology China Department of Electrical and Computer Systems Eng. Monash University and Data61 Australia

ISBN: (纸本)9781713871088

Learning in hyperbolic spaces has attracted growing attention recently, owing to their capabilities in capturing hierarchical structures of data. However, existing learning algorithms in the hyperbolic space tend to overfit when limited data is given. In this paper, we propose a hyperbolic feature augmentation method that generates diverse and discriminative features in the hyperbolic space to combat overfitting. We employ a wrapped hyperbolic normal distribution to model augmented features, and use a neural ordinary differential equation module that benefits from meta-learning to estimate the distribution. This is to reduce the bias of estimation caused by the scarcity of data. We also derive an upper bound of the augmentation loss, which enables us to train a hyperbolic model by using an infinite number of augmentations. Experiments on few-shot learning and continual learning tasks show that our method significantly improves the performance of hyperbolic algorithms in scarce data regimes.

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Confidence intervals uncovered: Are we ready for real-world medical imaging AI?

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Christodoulou, Evangelia Reinke, Annika Houhou, Rola Kalinowski, Piotr Erkan, Selen Sudre, Carole H. Burgos, Ninon Boutaj, Sofiène Loizillon, Sophie Solal, Maëlys Rieke, Nicola Cheplygina, Veronika Antonelli, Michela Mayer, Leon D. Tizabi, Minu D. Jorge Cardoso, M. Simpson, Amber Jäger, Paul F. Kopp-Schneider, Annette Varoquaux, Gaël Colliot, Olivier Maier-Hein, Lena Heidelberg Div. Intelligent Medical Systems Germany AI Health Innovation Cluster Germany NCT Heidelberg a partnership between DKFZ Heidelberg University Hospital Germany DKFZ Heidelberg Helmholtz Imaging Germany HIDSS4Health - Helmholtz Information and Data Science School for Health Germany DKFZ Heidelberg Interactive Machine Learning Group Germany MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing UCL Centre for Medical Image Computing Department of Computer Science University College London United Kingdom School of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Science King’s College London United Kingdom Sorbonne Université Institut du Cerveau - Paris Brain Institute - ICM CNRS Inria Inserm AP-HP Hôpital de la Pitié-Salpêtrière France NVIDIA Germany Department of Computer Science IT University of Copenhagen Denmark Centre for Medical Image Computing University College London United Kingdom School of Computing Queen’s University Canada Department of Biomedical and Molecular Sciences Queen’s University Canada Division of Biostatistics DKFZ Germany Parietal project team INRIA Saclay-Île de France France Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science Heidelberg University Germany Medical Faculty Heidelberg University Germany

Medical imaging is spearheading the AI transformation of healthcare. Performance reporting is key to determine which methods should be translated into clinical practice. Frequently, broad conclusions are simply derived from mean performance values. In this paper, we argue that this common practice is often a misleading simplification as it ignores performance variability. Our contribution is threefold. (1) Analyzing all MICCAI segmentation papers (n = 221) published in 2023, we first observe that more than 50% of papers do not assess performance variability at all. Moreover, only one (0.5%) paper reported confidence intervals (CIs) for model performance. (2) To address the reporting bottleneck, we show that the unreported standard deviation (SD) in segmentation papers can be approximated by a second-order polynomial function of the mean Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). Based on external validation data from 56 previous MICCAI challenges, we demonstrate that this approximation can accurately reconstruct the CI of a method using information provided in publications. (3) Finally, we reconstructed 95% CIs around the mean DSC of MICCAI 2023 segmentation papers. The median CI width was 0.03 which is three times larger than the median performance gap between the first and second ranked method. For more than 60% of papers, the mean performance of the second-ranked method was within the CI of the first-ranked method. We conclude that current publications typically do not provide sufficient evidence to support which models could potentially be translated into clinical practice. © 2024, CC BY.

关键词： Medical imaging

Artificial Intelligence without Restriction Surpassing Human Intelligence with Probability One: Theoretical Insight into Secrets of the Brain with AI Twins of the Brain

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Huang, Guang-Bin Westover, M. Brandon Tan, Eng-King Wang, Haibo Cui, Dongshun Ma, Wei-Ying Wang, Tiantong He, Qi Wei, Haikun Wang, Ning Tian, Qiyuan Lam, Kwok-Yan Yao, Xin Wong, Tien Yin School of Automation Southeast University Nanjing China Key Laboratory of Measurement and Control of Complex Systems of Engineering Ministry of Education Nanjing China Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center Harvard Medical School Boston United States Department of Neurology National Neuroscience Institute Singapore Research Centre of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence for Medicine First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University Guangzhou China Duke-NUS Medical School National University of Singapore Singapore Mind PointEye Singapore Institute for AI Industry Research Tsinghua University Beijing China College of Computing and Data Science Nanyang Technological University Singapore School of Biomedical Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing China Singapore AI Safety Institute Nanyang Technological University Singapore School of Data Science Lingnan University Hong Kong School of Computer Science University of Birmingham United Kingdom Singapore Eye Research Institute Singapore National Eye Centre Singapore Tsinghua Medicine Tsinghua University Beijing China

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has apparently become one of the most important techniques discovered by humans in history while the human brain is widely recognized as one of the most complex systems in the universe. One fundamental critical question which would affect human sustainability remains open: Will artificial intelligence (AI) evolve to surpass human intelligence in the future? This paper shows that in theory new AI twins with fresh cellular level of AI techniques for neuroscience could approximate the brain and its functioning systems (e.g. perception and cognition functions) with any expected small error and AI without restrictions could surpass human intelligence with probability one in the end. This paper indirectly proves the validity of the conjecture made by Frank Rosenblatt 70 years ago about the potential capabilities of AI, especially in the realm of artificial neural networks. This paper also gives the answer to the two widely discussed fundamental questions: 1) whether AI could have potentials of discovering new principles in nature;2) whether error backpropagation (BP) algorithm commonly and efficiently used in tuning parameters in AI applications is also adopted in the brain. Intelligence is just one of fortuitous but sophisticated creations of the nature which has not been fully discovered. Like mathematics and physics, with no restrictions artificial intelligence would lead to a new subject with its self-contained systems and principles. We anticipate that this paper opens new doors for 1) AI twins and other AI techniques to be used in cellular level of efficient neuroscience dynamic analysis, functioning analysis of the brain and brain illness solutions;2) new worldwide collaborative scheme for interdisciplinary teams concurrently working on and modelling different types of neurons and synapses and different level of functioning subsystems of the brain with AI techniques;3) development of low energy of AI techniques with the aid of fundament

关键词： Neurology

Machine-Learning Methods for Detecting Tuberculosis in Ziehl-Neelsen Stained Slides: A Systematic Literature Review

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SSRN

SSRN 2023年

作者： Tamura, Gabriel Llano, Gonzalo Aristizábal, Andrés Valencia, Juan Sua, Luz Fernanda Fernandez, Liliana Department of Computing and Intelligent Systems Universidad Icesi Valle del Cauca Cali Colombia Center of Artificial Intelligence and Data Science Universidad Icesi Valle del Cauca Cali Colombia Universidad Icesi Valle del Cauca Cali Colombia Faculty of Health Sciences Universidad Icesi Valle del Cauca Cali Colombia Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine Fundación Valle del Lili Valle del Cauca Cali Colombia Department of Internal Medicine Pulmonology Service Fundación Valle del Lili Valle del Cauca Cali Colombia

In recent years, different Machine Learning (ML) methods applied to medical image analysis have been increasingly used for the detection of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis (MT) in Ziehl-Neelsen stained human samples, since manual detection and counting of bacteria is a tedious, costly, error-prone and slow task. This paper presents the results of a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) that comprehensively surveyed and analyzed the current stateof-the-art ML methods and approaches that have been used for TB detection in the period of 2017-2022, as well as their achieved metrics and the characteristics of the datasets on which they were applied. The primary goal of this⋆ This work was supported by Tecnoquímicas Corp. in partnertship with Fundación Valle del Lili and Universidad Icesi with the aim to strenghten the research and development of technology in health in the Valle del Cauca region. © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Computer vision