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Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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The Lancet 2023年第10397期402卷 203-234页

作者： Ong, Kanyin Liane Stafford, Lauryn K. McLaughlin, Susan A. Boyko, Edward J. Vollset, Stein Emil Smith, Amanda E. Dalton, Bronte E. Duprey, Joe Cruz, Jessica A. Hagins, Hailey Lindstedt, Paulina A. Aali, Amirali Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Melsew Dagne Abbasian, Mohammadreza Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen ElHafeez, Samar Abd Abd-Rabu, Rami Abdulah, Deldar Morad Abdullah, Abu Yousuf Md Abedi, Vida Abidi, Hassan Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abu-Zaid, Ahmed Adane, Tigist Demssew Adane, Denberu Eshetie Addo, Isaac Yeboah Adegboye, Oyelola A. Adekanmbi, Victor Adepoju, Abiola Victor Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Afolabi, Rotimi Felix Agarwal, Gina Aghdam, Zahra Babaei Agudelo-Botero, Marcela Arriagada, Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera Agyemang-Duah, Williams Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmadi, Ali Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmed, Ali Ahmed, Luai A. Ahmed, Syed Anees Ajami, Marjan Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Al Hamad, Hanadi Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz AL-Ahdal, Tareq Mohammed Ali Alalwan, Tariq A. Al-Aly, Ziyad AlBataineh, Mohammad T. Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alemi, Sharifullah Ali, Hassam Alinia, Tahereh Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Almustanyir, Sami Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amare, Firehiwot Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amiri, Sohrab Amusa, Ganiyu Adeniyi Andrei, Catalina Liliana Anjana, Ranjit Mohan Ansar, Adnan Ansari, Golnoosh Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward Arabloo, Jalal Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Areda, Demelash Arifin, Hidayat Arkew, Mesay Armocida, Benedetta Arnlov, Johan Artamonov, Anton A. Arulappan, Judie Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo Arumugam, Ashokan Aryan, Zahra Asemu, Mulu Tiruneh Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad Askari, Elaheh Asmelash, Daniel Astell-Burt, Thomas Athar, Mohammad Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Avila-Burgos, Leticia Awaisu, Ahmed Azadnajafabad, Sina Darshan, B.B. Babamohamadi, Hassan Badar, Muhammad Badawi, Alaa Badiye, Ashish D. Baghcheghi, Nayereh Baghe Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation School of Medicine General Medicine Service Department of Veterans Affairs Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine Faculty of Medicine France Department of Clinical Governance and Quality Improvement Aleta Wondo Hospital Aleta Wondo Ethiopia Department of Nursing Woldia University Woldia Ethiopia Department of Nursing Department of Orthopedic Surgery Orthopaedic Surgery Social Determinants of Health Research Center Non-communicable Diseases Research Center Epidemiology Department Evidence-Based Practice Center Community and Maternity Nursing Unit University of Duhok Duhok Iraq School of Planning Faculty of Environment Department of Public Health Sciences Penn State College of Medicine Pennsylvania State University Hershey PA United States Biocomplexity Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg VA United States College of Medicine Department of Public Health Laboratory Technology Sciences Department Department of Family and Community Health University of Health and Allied Sciences Ho Ghana Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Department of Biosciences and Nutrition Karolinska University Hospital Huddinge Sweden Clinical Sciences Department Department of Surgery Department of Surgery Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology College of Graduate Health Sciences University of Tennessee Memphis TN United States Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology Department of Clinical and Psychosocial Epidemiology Department of Anesthesia and Critical Care Centre for Social Research in Health Quality and Systems Performance Unit Cancer Institute NSW Sydney NSW Australia Department of Public Health and Tropical Medicine HIV and Infectious Diseases Department Jhpiego Abuja Nigeria Adolescent Research and Care Department Adolescent Friendly Research Initiative and Care Ado Ekiti Nigeria Department of Epidemiology Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics Department of Family Medicine McMaster University

Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined;these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs;defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims;type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative r

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Triaging moderate COVID-19 and other viral pneumonias from routine blood tests

arXiv

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arXiv 2020年

作者： Bao, Forrest Sheng He, Youbiao Liu, Jie Chen, Yuanfang Li, Qian Zhang, Christina R. Han, Lei Zhu, Baoli Ge, Yaorong Chen, Shi Xu, Ming Ouyang, Liu Department of Computer Science Iowa State University AmesIA50011 United States Department of Radiology Union Hospital Tongji Medical College Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhan430022 China Institute of HIV/AIDS/STI Prevention and Control Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Nanjing210009 China Public Health Research Institute of Jiangsu Province Nanjing210009 China Department of Pediatrics Kunshan People's Hospital Affiliated To Jiangsu University Kunshan215300 China Division of Neurology Department of Medicine University of British Columbia VancouverBCV6T 1Z3 Canada Department of Occupational Disease Prevention Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Nanjing210009 China Department of Software and Information Systems University of North Carolina at Charlotte CharlotteNC28223 United States Department of Public Health Sciences College of Health and Human Services University of North Carolina at Charlotte CharlotteNC28262 United States Department of Orthopaedics Union Hospital Tongji Medical College Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhan430022 China School of Data Science College of Health and Human Services University of North Carolina at Charlotte CharlotteNC28262 United States

The COVID-19 is sweeping the world with deadly consequences. Its contagious nature and clinical similarity to other pneumonias make separating subjects contracted with COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia a priority and a challenge. However, COVID-19 testing has been greatly limited by the availability and cost of existing methods, even in developed countries like the US. Intrigued by the wide availability of routine blood tests, we propose to leverage them for COVID-19 testing using the power of machine learning. Two proven-robust machine learning model families, random forests (RFs) and support vector machines (SVMs), are employed to tackle the challenge. Trained on blood data from 208 moderate COVID-19 subjects and 86 subjects with non-COVID-19 moderate viral pneumonia, the best result is obtained in an SVM-based classifier with an accuracy of 84%, a sensitivity of 88%, a specificity of 80%, and a precision of 92%. The results are found explainable from both machine learning and medical perspectives. A privacy-protected web portal is set up to help medical personnel in their practice and the trained models are released for developers to further build other applications. We hope our results can help the world fight this pandemic and welcome clinical verification of our approach on larger populations. Copyright © 2020, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Support vector machines

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Epidemiology of hiv/aids in China: recent trends

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Global Health Journal 2017年第1期1卷 26-32页

作者： Yan Cui Cynthia X.Shi Zunyou Wu National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 102206China National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 102206China Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Center for Interdisciplinary Research on AIDS Yale School of Public Health135 College StreetNew HavenCT 06520USA

We used nationally reported cases (NCaids/China CDC,2016) and published literature to summarize up-to the end of 2015 epidemiologic trends in the hiv/aids epidemic in ***-positive cases are distributed unevenly with most infections found in southwest China and the most affected population being men who have sex with *** mode of hiv infection has shifted from drug injection to sexual contact,which accounts for 95% of total reported *** thirds of cases are from heterosexual *** pattern varies greatly throughout *** provinces in China reported heterosexual transmission accounted for over 90% of cases while other provinces reported homosexual transmission accounted for over 80% of *** of heterosexually acquired hiv also vary widely,with 80% of cases attributed to commercial sex in some provinces,while in other provinces non-commercial extramarital sex accounted for over 70% of *** increase in hiv infection was observed among young students aged *** has successfully controlled blood transfusion-and injecting drug-related transmissions of *** and non-commercial extramarital heterosexual transmissions have become new challenges for China's hiv/aids *** adoption of the UNaids/WHO 90-90-90 target will help overcome these new challenges.

关键词： hiv aids epidemiology China

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A Large HCV Transmission Network Enabled a Fast-Growing hiv Outbreak in Rural Indiana, 2015

SSRN

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SSRN 2018年

作者： Ramachandran, Sumathi Thai, Hong Forbi, Joseph C. Galang, Romeo Regi Dimitrova, Zoya Xia, Guo-Liang Lin, Yulin Punkova, Lili T. Pontones, Pamela R. Gentry, Jessica Blosser, Sara J. Lovchik, Judith Switzer, William M. Teshale, Eyasu Peters, Philip Ward, John Khudyakov, Yury Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Molecular Epidemiology and Bioinformatics Laboratory Division of Viral hepatitis Centers for Disease Control and Prevention AtlantaGA United States Indiana State Department of Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention

Background: A high prevalence (92.3%) of hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection among hiv patients identified during a large hiv outbreak associated with injection of oxymorphone in Indiana prompted genetic analysis of HCV strains. Methods: Molecular epidemiological analysis of HCV-positive samples included genotyping, sampling intra-host HVR1 variants by next-generation sequencing (NGS) and constructing transmission networks using Global Hepatitis Outbreak and Surveillance Technology (GHOST). Findings: Results from the 492 samples indicate predominance of HCV genotypes 1a (72.2%) and 3a (20.4%), and existence of 2 major endemic NS5B clusters involving 49.8% of the sequenced strains. Among 76 hiv coinfected patients, 60.5% segregated into 2 endemic clusters. NGS analyses of 281 cases identified 826,917 unique HVR1 sequences and 51 cases of mixed subtype/genotype infections. GHOST mapped 23 transmission clusters. One large cluster (n=130) included 50 cases infected with ≥2 subtypes/genotypes and 43 cases co-infected with hiv. Rapid strain replacement and superinfection with different strains were found among 7 of 12 cases who were followed up. Interpretation: GHOST enabled mapping of HCV transmission networks among persons who inject drugs (PWID). Findings of numerous transmission clusters, mixed-genotype infections and rapid succession of infections with different HCV strains indicate a high rate of HCV spread. Co-localization of hiv co-infected patients in the major HCV clusters suggests that hiv dissemination was enabled by existing HCV transmission networks that likely perpetuated HCV in the community for years. Identification of transmission networks is an important step to guiding efficient public health interventions for preventing and interrupting HCV and hiv transmission among PWID. Funding Statement: US Centers for Disease control and prevention, and US state and local public health departments. Declaration of Interests: No competing interest

关键词： Diseases

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Erratum for Oladeinde et al., "Horizontal Gene Transfer Is the Main Driver of Antimicrobial Resistance in Broiler Chicks Infected with Salmonella enterica Serovar Heidelberg"

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mSystems 2021年第5期6卷 e0114721页

作者： Adelumola Oladeinde Zaid Abdo Maximilian O Press Kimberly Cook Nelson A Cox Benjamin Zwirzitz Reed Woyda Steven M Lakin Jesse C Thomas Torey Looft Douglas E Cosby Arthur Hinton Jean Guard Eric Line Michael J Rothrock Mark E Berrang Kyler Herrington Gregory Zock Jodie Plumblee Lawrence Denice Cudnik Sandra House Kimberly Ingram Leah Lariscy Martin Wagner Samuel E Aggrey Lilong Chai Casey Ritz U.S. National Poultry Research Center USDA-ARS Athens Georgia USA. Department of Microbiology Immunology and Pathology Colorado State Universitygrid.47894.36 Fort Collins Colorado USA. Phase Genomics Inc. Seattle Washington USA. Office of National Programs USDA-ARS Beltsville Maryland USA. Institute of Food Safety Food Technology and Veterinary Public Health University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna Austria. Austrian Competence Centre for Feed and Food Quality Safety and Innovation FFoQSI GmbH Tulln Austria. Division of STD Prevention National Center for HIV/AIDS Viral Hepatitis STD and TB Prevention Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Atlanta Georgia USA. National Animal Disease Center USDA-ARS Ames Iowa USA. Medical College of Georgia Augusta Georgia USA. Poultry Science Department University of Georgia Athens Georgia USA.

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In vitro inhibition of hiv-1 replication in autologous CD4*T cells indicates viral containment by multifactorial mechanisms

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Virologica Sinica 2017年第6期32卷 485-494页

作者： Ting Tu Jianbo Zhan Danlei Mou Wei Li Bin Su Tong Zhang Tao Li Ning Li Hao Wu Cong Jin Huabiao Chen Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Clinical Laboratory Medicine Jiangsu University School of MedicineZhenjiang 212013China National HIV/HCV Reference Laboratory National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 102206China Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Wuhan 430079China Beijing You'an Hospital Capital Medical UniversityBeijing 100069China

hiv-1-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes(CTLs) and neutralizing antibodies(NAbs) are present during chronic infection, but the relative contributions of these effector mechanisms to viral containment remain unclear. Here, using an in vitro model involving autologous CD4+ T cells,primary hiv-1 isolates, hiv-1-specific CTLs, and neutralizing monoclonal antibodies, we show that b12, a potent and broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody to hiv-1, was able to block viral infection when preincubated with virus prior to infection, but was much less effective than CTLs at limiting virus replication when added to infected cell cultures. However, the same neutralizing antibody was able to contain viruses by antibody-dependent cell-mediated virus inhibition in vitro,which was mediated by natural killer cells(NKs) and dependent on an Fc-Fc receptor ***, bulk CTLs from hiv-1 controllers were more effective in suppression of virus replication than those from progressors. These findings indicate that control of hiv-1 replication in activated CD4^+ T cells is ineffectively mediated by neutralizing antibodies alone, but that both CTLs and antibody-dependent NK-mediated immune mechanisms contribute to viral containment. Our study systemically compared three major players in controlling hiv-1 infection, CTLs, NAbs, and NKs, in an autologous system and highlighted the multifactorial mechanisms for viral containment and vaccine success.

关键词： hiv-1 infection viral replication cytotoxic T lymphocyte(CTL) natural killer cells neutralizing antibody

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Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on the Spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Chaoyang District, Beijing, China： Using the Asian Epidemic Model

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Chinese Medical Journal 2017年第1期130卷 32-38页

作者： Li-Li Tao Min Liu Shu-Ming Li Jue Liu Shu-Lin Jiang Li-Juan Wang Feng-Ji Luo Ning Wang Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public Health Peking University Beijing 100191 China Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Control Beijing Chaoyang District Centre for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing 100021 China National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing 102206 China

Background： Successful antiretroviral therapy （ART） has been demonstrated to be effective in reducing the infectivity of human immunodeficiency virus （hiv）. We conducted a study to predict the potential effect of ART on the spread of hiv in Chaoyang District, Beijing, China, using the Asian Epidemic Model （AEM）. Methods： The AEM baseline workbook was used to determine the current infection status and to project the future spread of hiv under current conditions. We changed the input on the ART coverage from 2014 to 2025 and also modified the treatment eligibility in the AEM intervention workbook, in order to allow for analysis of the projected downstream impact of ART. Results： By gradually increasing the ART coverage rate from 29.7% （rate of 2013） to 40.0%, 50.0%, 60.0%, 70.0%, 80.0%, and 90.0% （at CD4＋ ≤350 cells/μl）, and by changing the dates of coverage from 2014 to 2020, the number of new infections showed a cumulative decline of 0.60%, 1.59%, 2.94%, 5.33%, 9.32%, and 14.98%, respectively. After 2020, the projected rates of infection rebounded slightly, so with the exception of the years with very high coverage （90.0%）, new infections continued to decrease. When we changed the initial threshold of therapy to CD4＋ cell counts ≤500 cells/μl, new infections decreased 6.00%, 11.64%, 15.92%, 21.11%, 26.92%, 33.05%, and 38.75%, respectively, under varying ART coverages. Conclusion： Our study demonstrates that the early initiation of ART for people living with hiv/acquired immune deficiency syndrome （aids） has a positive effect in slowing the spread of hiv.

关键词： Antiretroviral Therapy Asian Epidemic Model Human Immunodeficiency Virus Impact Transmission

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Monocyte activation and cardiovascular disease in hiv infection

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Cellular & Molecular Immunology 2017年第12期14卷 960-962页

作者： Hua Liang Zhe Xie Tao Shen State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control National Center for AIDS/STD Control and PreventionChina CDCCollaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious DiseasesBeijingChina Department of Microbiology and Center of Infectious Diseases School of Basic Medical SciencesPeking UniversityBeijingChina

Antiretroviral therapy(ART)has increased the lifespan of hivinfected individuals,which is now approaching that of the general ***,cardiovascular disease(CVD),including myocardial infarction,stroke,heart failure,and arrhythmia,is still a main cause of mortality in hivpositive *** risk of CVD in people living with hiv is about 1.5–2-fold higher than that in the general population.1 Even in those successfully treated with ART,the incidence of CVD is still higher than that in uninfected individuals.2 Thus,in addition to the traditional risk factors associated with CVD,other factors(such as ART per se,inflammation,and immune activation caused by hiv infection)may be involved in CVD development.

关键词： cardiovascular mortality inflammation

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Hepatitis C: Review of the Epidemiology, Clinical Care, and Continued Challenges in the Direct Acting Antiviral Era

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Current epidemiology reports 2017年第2期4卷 174-185页

作者： Alexander J Millman Noele P Nelson Claudia Vellozzi Division of Viral Hepatitis National Center for HIV/AIDS Viral Hepatitis STD and TB Prevention Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Atlanta GA USA.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW:This review highlights key studies and recently published data, policies, and recommendations related to hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology, transmission, and treatment. RECENT FINDINGS:HCV is a leading cause of liver-related deaths, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Since 2011 and accelerating since 2013, new, safe, tolerable, and curative therapies have considerably altered clinical and public health frameworks related to the prevention, control and clinical management of HCV. Nevertheless, there are several populations in the United States that are important to consider because of disparities in HCV prevalence and transmission risk. Adults born during 1945-1965 have an estimated anti-HCV antibody prevalence of ~3%, which is six times higher than among other adults, are often unaware of their infections, and are at increased risk of having HCV-associated morbidity and mortality from decades of chronic infection. Since the early 2000s, increasing incidence of acute HCV infections among young, white, non-urban people who inject drugs have been reported. Despite promising therapeutic advances, significant challenges remain for reducing HCV-associated morbidity and mortality. SUMMARY:The high burden of HCV and significant health consequences associated with chronic infection make HCV a critical public health priority. Advances in HCV treatment have created new opportunities for reducing HCV-associated morbidity and mortality. These treatments are safe, well-tolerated, and highly effective; however, benefits cannot be realized without a significant increase in the number of persons tested for HCV so that all chronically infected individuals can be aware of their diagnosis and linked to appropriate clinical care.

关键词： Baby Boomer Direct Acting Antiviral Hepatitis C Injection Drug Use

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hiv care and viral suppression during the last year of life: A comparison of hiv-infected persons who died of hiv-attributable causes with persons who died of other causes in 2012 in 13 US jurisdictions

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JMIR Public Health and Surveillance 2017年第1期3卷 e3页

作者： Adih, William K. Hall, H. Irene Selik, Richard M. Guo, Xiuchan Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention National Center for HIV/AIDS Viral Hepatitis STD and TB Prevention Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Atlanta GA United States

Background: Little information is available about care before death among human immunodeficiency virus (hiv)-infected persons who die of hiv infection, compared with those who die of other causes. Objective: The objective of our study was to compare hiv care and outcome before death among persons with hiv who died of hiv-attributable versus other causes. Methods: We used National hiv Surveillance System data on CD4 T-lymphocyte counts and viral loads within 12 months before death in 2012, as well as on underlying cause of death. Deaths were classified as “hiv-attributable” if the reported underlying cause was hiv infection, an aids-defining disease, or immunodeficiency and as attributable to “other causes” if the cause was anything else. Persons were classified as “in continuous care” if they had ≥2 CD4 or viral load test results ≥3 months apart in those 12 months and as having “viral suppression” if their last viral load was <200 copies/mL. Results: Among persons dying of hiv-attributable or other causes, respectively, 65.28% (2104/3223) and 30.88% (1041/3371) met aids criteria within 12 months before death, and 33.76% (1088/3223) and 50.96% (1718/3371) had viral suppression. The percentage of persons who received ≥2 tests ≥3 months apart did not differ by cause of death. Prevalence of viral suppression for persons who ever had aids was lower among those who died of hiv but did not differ by cause for those who never had aids. Conclusions: The lower prevalence of viral suppression among persons who died of hiv than among those who died of other causes implies a need to improve viral suppression strategies to reduce mortality due to hiv infection. © William K Adih, H Irene Hall, Richard M Selik, Xiuchan Guo. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://***), 24.01.2017. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://***/licenses/by/2.0/)

关键词： aids Care Causes of death hiv

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