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arXiv 2020年

作者： Petropoulos, Fotios Apiletti, Daniele Assimakopoulos, Vassilios Babai, Mohamed Zied Barrow, Devon K. Taieb, Souhaib Ben Bergmeir, Christoph Bessa, Ricardo J. Bijak, Jakub Boylan, John E. Browell, Jethro Carnevale, Claudio Castle, Jennifer L. Cirillo, Pasquale Clements, Michael P. Cordeiro, Clara Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino de Baets, Shari Dokumentov, Alexander Ellison, Joanne Fiszeder, Piotr Franses, Philip Hans Frazier, David T. Gilliland, Michael Gönül, M. Sinan Goodwin, Paul Grossi, Luigi Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Guidolin, Mariangela Guidolin, Massimo Gunter, Ulrich Guo, Xiaojia Guseo, Renato Harvey, Nigel Hendry, David F. Hollyman, Ross Januschowski, Tim Jeon, Jooyoung Jose, Victor Richmond R. Kang, Yanfei Koehler, Anne B. Kolassa, Stephan Kourentzes, Nikolaos Leva, Sonia Li, Feng Litsiou, Konstantia Makridakis, Spyros Martin, Gael M. Martinez, Andrew B. Meeran, Sheik Modis, Theodore Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos Önkal, Dilek Paccagnini, Alessia Panagiotelis, Anastasios Panapakidis, Ioannis Pavía, Jose M. Pedio, Manuela Pedregal, Diego J. Pinson, Pierre Ramos, Patrícia Rapach, David E. Reade, J. James Rostami-Tabar, Bahman Rubaszek, Michal Sermpinis, Georgios Shang, Han Lin Spiliotis, Evangelos Syntetos, Aris A. Talagala, Priyanga Dilini Talagala, Thiyanga S. Tashman, Len Thomakos, Dimitrios Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Todini, Ezio Arenas, Juan Ramón Trapero Wang, Xiaoqian Winkler, Robert L. Yusupova, Alisa Ziel, Florian School of Management University of Bath United Kingdom Politecnico di Torino Turin Italy Forecasting and Strategy Unit School of Electrical and Computer Engineering National Technical University of Athens Greece Kedge Business School France Department of Management Birmingham Business School University of Birmingham United Kingdom Belgium Faculty of Information Technology Monash University Melbourne Australia INESC TEC – Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering Technology and Science Porto Portugal Department of Social Statistics and Demography University of Southampton United Kingdom Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting Lancaster University Management School Lancaster University United Kingdom School of Mathematics and Statistics University of Glasgow United Kingdom Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering University of Brescia Italy Magdalen College University of Oxford United Kingdom ZHAW School of Management and Law Zurich University of Applied Sciences Switzerland ICMA Centre Henley Business School University of Reading United Kingdom Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia Universidade do Algarve Portugal CEAUL Faculdade de Ciências Universidade de Lisboa Portugal Brazil Department of Business Informatics and Operations Management Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Universiteit Gent Belgium Let’s Forecast Australia Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun Poland Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Rotterdam Netherlands Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics Monash University Melbourne Australia SAS United States Newcastle Business School Northumbria University Newcastle upon Tyne United Kingdom Department of Statistical Sciences University of Padua Italy Darden School of Business University of Virginia United States Finance Department Bocconi University Baffi-CAREFIN Centre Milan Italy Department of Tourism and Service Management MODUL Un

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases. © 2020, CC BY.

关键词： Forecasting

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A Case Study on Implementing Virtual 5D Torus Networks Using Network Components of Lower Dimensionality

A Case Study on Implementing Virtual 5D Torus Networks Using...

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IEEE International Workshop on High-Performance Interconnection Networks in the Exascale and Big-Data Era (HiPINEB)

作者： Francisco J. Andújar Juan A. Villar José L. Sánchez Francisco J. Alfaro José Duato Hoger Fröning Department of Systems Data Processing and Computers Polytechnic University of Valencia Valencia Spain Department of Computing Systems University of Castilla-La Mancha Albacete Spain Institute of Computer Engineering Ruprecht-Karls University of Heidelberg Mannheim Germany

Several of the most powerful supercomputers in the Top500 and the Graph500 lists continue choosing a torus topology to interconnect a large number of compute nodes. In some cases, a torus network with five or six dimensions is implemented, however, one notices that the costs of implementing an interconnection network increase with the node degree. In previous works we defined and characterized the nD Twin (nDT) torus topology in order to virtually increase the dimensionality of a torus. This new topology reduces the distances between nodes and therefore increases network performance. In this work, we present how to build a 5DT torus network using commercial 6-port network cards. The main issues of this approach are detailed, and we present solutions these problems. Moreover we show, using the same components, that the performance of the 5DT torus network is higher than the performance of the 3D torus network for the same number of compute nodes.

关键词： Ports (Computers) Topology Switches Network topology Routing Multiprocessor interconnection Hardware

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Steady state probability distribution of a two-product-type and multi-parallel-machine system under prioritized hedging point control policy

Steady state probability distribution of a two-product-type ...

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IEEE International Conference on Automation Science and engineering (CASE)

作者： Wenliang Chen Zheng Wang Felix T. S. Chan Key Laboratory of Measure and Control of Complex Engineering Systems Southeast University Nanjing Jiangsu P. R. China Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering The Hong Kong Polytechnic University China

For a manufacturing system, we often need to evaluate its performance under a production control policy. The purpose of performance evaluation is to optimize the parameters in the control policy. In this paper, we investigate the method of evaluating the performance of a two-product-type and multi-parallel-machine manufacturing system. In order to evaluate its performance, the key is to obtain its steady-state probability distribution under a control policy. To solve this problem, firstly, we analyze the shape of distribution domains of state variables, which influence the steady-state probability balance equation. For one of these possible shapes, we develop the steady-state probability balance equations under the prioritized hedging point (PHP) control policy. From these equations, we obtain the marginal probability distribution for each product type for a two-product-type and multi-parallel-machine system, which has the similar form as the steady-state probability distribution of a one-product-type and multi-parallel-machine system. Then, a unified form of probability balance equation is developed from all possible shapes of distribution domains of state variables. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to verify the correctness of the proposed method of computing the probability distribution of a two-product-type and multi-machine system.

关键词： Steady-state Probability distribution Shape Probability density function Manufacturing systems Production control

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Delayed optimal control of stochastic LQ problem

arXiv

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arXiv 2017年

作者： Ni, Yuan-Hua Yiu, Cedric Ka-Fai Zhang, Huanshui Zhang, Ji-Feng College of Computer and Control Engineering Nankai University Tianjin300350 China Department of Applied Mathematics Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hunghom Kowloon Hong Kong School of Control Science and Engineering Shandong University Jinan250061 China Key Laboratory of Systems and Control Institute of Systems Science Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences School of Mathematical Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences China

A stochastic LQ problem with multiplicative noises and transmission delay is studied in this paper, which does not require any definiteness constraint on the cost weighting matrices. From some abstract representations of the system and cost functional, the solvability of this LQ problem is characterized by some conditions with operator form. Based on these, necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the case with a fixed time-state initial pair and the general case with all the time-state initial pairs. For both cases, a set of coupled discrete-time Riccati-like equations can be derived to characterize the existence and the form of the delayed optimal control. In particular, for the general case with all the initial pairs, the existence of the delayed optimal control is equivalent to the solvability of the Riccati-like equations with some algebraic constraints, and both of them are also equivalent to the solvability of a set of coupled linear matrix equality-inequalities. Note that both the constrained Riccati-like equations and the linear matrix equality-inequalities are introduced for the first time in the literature for the proposed LQ problem. Furthermore, the convexity and the uniform convexity of the cost functional are fully characterized via certain properties of the solution of the Riccati-like equations. Copyright © 2017, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Stochastic systems

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On time-consistent solution to time-inconsistent linear-quadratic optimal control of discrete-time stochastic systems

arXiv

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arXiv 2017年

作者： Li, Xun Ni, Yuan-Hua Zhang, Ji-Feng Department of Applied Mathematics Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hunghom Kowloon Hong Kong College of Computer and Control Engineering Nankai University Tianjin300350 China Key Laboratory of Systems and Control Institute of Systems Science Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences School of Mathematical Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences China

In this paper, we investigate a class of time-inconsistent discrete-time stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problems, whose time-consistent solutions consist of an open-loop equilibrium control and a linear feedback equilibrium strategy. The open-loop equilibrium control is defined for a given initial pair, while the linear feedback equilibrium strategy is defined for all the initial pairs. Maximum-principle-type necessary and sufficient conditions containing stationary and convexity are derived for the existence of these two time-consistent solutions, respectively. Furthermore, for the case where the system matrices are independent of the initial time, we show that the existence of the open-loop equilibrium control for a given initial pair is equivalent to the solvability of a set of nonsymmetric generalized difference Riccati equations and a set of linear difference equations. Moreover, the existence of linear feedback equilibrium strategy is equivalent to the solvability of another set of symmetric generalized difference Riccati equations.49N10, 49N35, 93E20 Copyright © 2017, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Stochastic systems

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Ductal carcinoma in situ detection in breast thermography by extreme learning machine and combination of statistical measure and fractal dimension

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Journal of Ambient Intelligence and Humanized Computing 2017年 1-11页

作者： Wang, Shui-Hua Muhammad, Khan Phillips, Preetha Dong, Zhengchao Zhang, Yu-Dong Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Advanced Manufacturing Technology HuaiyinJiangsu223003 China School of Computer Science and Technology Henan Polytechnic University JiaozuoHenan454000 China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Measurement and Control of Complex Systems of Engineering Southeast University Nanjing China College of Software Convergence Sejong University Seoul Korea Republic of Department of Informatics University of Leicester LeicesterLE1 7RH United Kingdom West Virginia School of Osteopathic Medicine 400 N Lee St LewisburgWV24901 United States Translational Imaging Division and MRI Unit Columbia University and New York State Psychiatric Institute New YorkNY10032 United States

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a severe breast disease. It generates little symptom and may be neglected in prodromal stage. In this study, we developed a novel DCIS detection method based on breast thermography, which can provide earlier alert than other exams. We created a 40 breast-thermogram dataset. We used six statistical measures, and we used fractal dimension to describe the texture measure. The extreme learning machine was used as the classifier. Our developed system yielded a sensitivity of 93.0 ± 2.6%, a specificity of 92.5 ± 2.6%, and an accuracy of 92.8 ± 1.8%. The extreme learning machine was better than support vector machine, artificial neural network, decision tree, and weighted k-nearest neighbors. Besides, our developed system was superior to six state-of-the-art approaches. © 2017 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature

关键词： Fractal dimension

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Relay-pair selection in buffer-aided successive opportunistic relaying using a multi-antenna source

arXiv

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arXiv 2017年

作者： Charalambous, Themistoklis Kim, Su Min Nomikos, Nikolaos Bengtsson, Mats Johansson, Mikael Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation Aalto University Espoo Finland Department of Electronics Engineering Korea Polytechnic University Siheung Korea Republic of Department of Information and Communication Systems Engineering University of the Aegean Samos Greece Department of Information Science and Engineering School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science KTH Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm Sweden Department of Automatic Control School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science KTH Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm Sweden

We study a cooperative network with a buffer-aided multi-antenna source, multiple half-duplex (HD) buffer-aided relays and a single destination. Such a setup could represent a cellular downlink scenario, in which the source can be a more powerful wireless device with a buffer and multiple antennas, while a set of intermediate less powerful devices are used as relays to reach the destination. The main target is to recover the multiplexing loss of the network by having the source and a relay to simultaneously transmit their information to another relay and the destination, respectively. Successive transmissions in such a cooperative network, however, cause inter-relay interference (IRI). First, by assuming global channel state information (CSI), we show that the detrimental effect of IRI can be alleviated by precoding at the source, mitigating or even fully cancelling the interference. A cooperative relaying policy is proposed that employs a joint precoding design and relay-pair selection. Note that both fixed rate and adaptive rate transmissions can be considered. For the case when channel state information is only available at the receiver side (CSIR), we propose a relay selection policy that employs a phase alignment technique to reduce the IRI. The performance of the two proposed relay pair selection policies are evaluated and compared with other state-of-the-art relaying schemes in terms of outage and throughput. The results show that the use of a powerful source can provide considerable performance improvements. Copyright © 2017, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Channel state information

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Robustness of controllability for Scale-free Networks Based on a Nonlinear Load-Capacity Model

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IFAC-PapersOnLine 2016年第4期49卷 37-42页

作者： Fu, Yingbin Wang, Lei Chen, Michael Z.Q. School of Mathematics and Systems Science Beihang University Beijing100191 China School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering Beihang University Beijing100191 China Key Laboratory of Control Engineering of Henan Province Henan Polytechnic University Henan454000 China Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Hong Kong 999077 Hong Kong

Based on a nonlinear load-capacity model, the network evolution and controllability evolution of scale-free networks under the cascading failures triggered by removing the highest-load edge are simulated and discussed in this paper. It is shown by numerical simulations that the controllability evolution is consistent with the average degree evolution rather than the power law exponent evolution. Under the same network cost, it is found that the nonlinear load-capacity model exhibits the stronger robustness of controllability when the initial power law exponent of networks is small by comparing with the linear load-capacity model, while the linear load-capacity model is of stronger robustness of controllability when the initial power law exponent is large. Numerical results shows that high-load edges are becoming more critical to the robustness of controllability with the increase of initial power law exponent, and the nearly highest-load edges are becoming more critical with the increase of both initial average degree and power law exponent. © 2016, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： controllability Complex networks Average degree Cascading failures Linear loads Network costs Network evolution Nonlinear load Numerical results Power law exponent

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Estimation and measurement of closed-loop delays in the actual WACS of Guizhou Power Grid

Estimation and measurement of closed-loop delays in the actu...

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2016 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PESGM 2016

作者： Zhang, Fang Cheng, Lin Li, Xiong Min, Zeng Sun, Yuanzhang Chow, Joe H. State Key Laboratory of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipment Tsinghua University Beijing China School of Electrical Engineering Wuhan University China Department of Electrical Computer and Systems Engineering Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute TroyNY12180 United States

ISBN: (纸本)9781509041688

The characterization of the closed-loop delays in a wide-area control system (WACS) is an important foundation for further research. The method to estimate and measure the closed-loop delay in actual WACSs were proposed in this paper. Then, the closed-loop delays in the actual WACS in Guizhou Power Grid in China were measured and analyzed. Also, the measured delays were used to verify the normal distribution estimation model proposed in previous research. The results indicate that the closed-loop delay in the WACS followed a normal distribution. © 2016 IEEE.

关键词： Normal distribution

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A Novel Tool Wear Measurement Method in Ultra-precision Raster Milling 4th

A Novel Tool Wear Measurement Method in Ultra-precision Rast...

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4th Asia Pacific Conference on Optics Manufacture, APCOM 2014

作者： Zhang, Guoqing To, Suet College of Mechatronics and Control Engineering Shenzhen University Shenzhen China State Key Laboratory of Ultra-precision Machining Technology Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Kowloon Hong Kong Shenzhen Research Institute of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Shenzhen China

ISBN: (纸本)9783038356387

Tool wear measurement has drawn a significant of attention in the past decades. However, no research has been found on the investigation of tool wear measurement in ultra-precision raster milling (UPRM) process since it is a relative complex cutting process. In the present study, tool wear characteristics were identified by using cutting chip morphologies and a groove cutting. Tool wear investigation using cutting chips is effective because diamond tool wear characteristics can be directly imprinted on the cutting chip surface. Through the inspection of chip surfaces, the profile and location of the tool fracture can be identified. Also, through the groove cutting, the cutting edge retreat due to the tool flank wear can be identified. In this research, a mathematical model was established to calculate the tool retreat. The experimental result shows that the proposed tool wear investigation method is an effective method. © 2016 Trans Tech Publications Ltd, Switzerland.

关键词： Milling (machining)

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