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Fingerprinting leading indicators of WMD terrorism: An integrated modeling approach

Fingerprinting leading indicators of WMD terrorism: An integ...

引用

2009 AAAI Spring Symposium

作者： Kuznar, Lawrence A. Asal, Victor Rethemeyer, Karl Pattipati, Krishna Popp, Robert Shellman, Steven National Security Innovations Inc. 8 Faneuil Hall Market Boston MA 02109-6114 United States Dept. Political Science Rockefellar College of Public Affairs and Policy State University of New York Albany United States Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Connecticut United States Government Department College of William and Mary United States Security Analysis Enterprises Inc. United States

ISBN: (纸本)9781577354161

In this paper, we present a holistic, integrated social science analysis of the leading indicators of WMD terrorism that advances what is known about the social conditions that foster WMD terrorism. This exercise illustrates how a multidisciplinary team of researchers, including political scientists, anthropologists and computer engineers combined state-of-the-art methodologies to fuse disparate data sources to produce research findings not traditionally possible. This report describes the basic theories of WMD terrorism tested by researchers, the sources of their data and special challenges they met, the varied analytical methodologies used, and a brief overview of key findings. © 2009, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence.

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Model predictive control of fuel cell micro cogeneration systems

Model predictive control of fuel cell micro cogeneration sys...

引用

IEEE International Conference on Networking, Sensing and Control

作者： Michiel Houwing Rudy R. Negenborn Marija D. Ilic Bart De Schutter Electic Energy Systems Group of Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA USA Faculty of Technology Policy and Management Delft University of Technnology Delft Netherlands Delft Center of Systems and Control Delft University of Technnology Delft Netherlands Departments of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA USA Control of Future Electricity Network Operations Faculty of Technology Delft University of Technnology Delft Netherlands Marine and Transport Technology Department Delft University of Technnology Netherlands

With the increasing application of distributed energy resources and information technologies in the electricity infrastructure, innovative possibilities for incorporating the demand side more actively in power system operation are enabled. At the residential level energy costs could be reduced with intelligent price-based control concepts (demand response). A promising, controllable, residential distributed generation technology is micro cogeneration (micro-CHP). Micro-CHP is an energy efficient technology that simultaneously provides heat and electricity to households during operation. This paper presents a detailed model of a household using a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) micro-CHP system in conjunction with heat storage options to fulfil its heat and part of its electricity demand. Furthermore, a decentralised controller based on a model predictive control (MPC) strategy is proposed. MPC can take benefit of future knowledge on prizes and energy demands and can therefore lead to better system performance. In simulations the performance of the MPC-controlled PEMFC system is illustrated under different conditions regarding energy pricing, domestic energy demand, and system configuration.

关键词： Predictive models Predictive control Fuel cells Cogeneration Resistance heating Power system modeling Distributed control Energy resources Information technology Costs

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Creating reliability choice: How building less reliability into electric power grids could improve the welfare of all customers

Creating reliability choice: How building less reliability i...

引用

IEEE Power and Energy Society 2008 General Meeting: Conversion and Delivery of electrical Energy in the 21st Century, PES

作者： Kurlinski, Ryan E. Lave, Lester Ilic, Marija D. IEEE Department of Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA 15213 United States Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Department of Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA 15213 United States Tepper School of Business Department of Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA 15213 United States

ISBN: (纸本)9781424419067

Electric power grids are designed to attempt to provide the same basic level of reliability to all consumers. With consumers having non-uniform preferences for reliability, the provision of one level of reliability at the same price for all consumers forces many to pay for reliability that they value less than the cost. Load control technology can decrease these equity problems by increasing the reliability received by some consumers and decreasing the reliability received by the others. By replacing generation capacity, load control technology would increase the total number of kWhs shed annually, thereby decreasing the reliability provided by the electric power grid. Using simple examples, we show that if the cost of this load control technology is low relative to the cost of generation capacity, voluntary load shedding could increase the welfare of everyone on the grid by allowing consumers to choose their level of reliability. © 2008 IEEE.

关键词： Reliability

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The effects of multi-temporal electricity markets on short- and long-term bidding

The effects of multi-temporal electricity markets on short- ...

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IEEE General Meeting Power& Energy Society

作者： Zhiyong Wu Marija Ilic Engineering and Public Policy Department Carnegie Mellon University USA Electrical engineering Tsinghua University Beijing China Departments of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Engineering Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University USA

In this paper we discuss the generator investment problem for a newly proposed energy-only market structure comprising both spot and forward sub-markets as an alternative long-term resource adequacy solution. The investment problem is modeled as stochastic dynamic programming problem for a profit maximizing generator over a long time horizon. The long-term growth and short-term deviation of demand are represented as stochastic processes. The spot market is modeled as bilevel non-cooperative game and the forward market is formulated based on mean-variance criteria and market equilibrium arguments. The interrelated dynamics of different markets and its effect on investment decision and profitability of market participants are analyzed and comparisons with other market structures such as spot only energy markets are investigated as well.

关键词： Biological system modeling Load modeling Power markets Generators Stochastic processes Uncertainty Electricity

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The value of IT for virtual power plants with micro cogeneration systems

The value of IT for virtual power plants with micro cogenera...

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IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics

作者： Michiel Houwing Marija Ilic Faculty of Technology Policy and Management Delft University of Technnology Delft Netherlands Departments of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA USA

Micro cogeneration technology (micro-CHP) is expected to be an important novel residential heating technology for the future in certain countries around the world. The interesting aspect of micro-CHP is that it is a controllable distributed generation technology. This paper provides novel conceptual insight into how micro-CHP systems can be controlled aggregatedly in virtual power plants (VPPs). Cost benefits for VPPs can be achieved through 'economies of intelligence' with the help of intelligent control schemes.

关键词： Power generation Cogeneration Intelligent control Costs Economic forecasting Power generation economics Environmental economics Control systems Distributed control Investments

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Model predictive dispatch in electric energy systems with intermittent resources

Model predictive dispatch in electric energy systems with in...

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IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics

作者： Le Xie Marija D. Ilic Electrical and Computer Engineering Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA USA Departments of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA USA Honorary Chaired Professor for Control of Future Electricity Network Operations Faculty of Technology Policy and Management Delft University of Technnology Delft Netherlands

This paper addresses potential benefits of applying model predictive control (MPC) to solving the energy dispatch problem in electric energy systems with many intermittent renewable resources. Based on predicting the output from the intermittent resources, this paper introduces a look-ahead optimal control algorithm for dispatching the available generation with the objective of minimizing the total production cost. This method is compared with the static economic dispatch which treats intermittent resources as uncertain negative loads. We suggest that the proposed MPC approach could lower the total generation cost by directly dispatching the output from the renewable resources in order to compensate temporal load variations over pre-defined time horizons. A small 12-bus power system comprising five generators is simulated to illustrate potential benefits from a look-ahead dispatch of both intermittent and more conventional power plants. The proposed method is directly applicable to managing systems with large presence of wind and photovoltaic resources.

关键词： Predictive models Dispatching Power system simulation Photovoltaic systems Power generation Predictive control Optimal control Production Cost function Power system economics

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Creating reliability choice: How building less reliability into electric power grids could improve the welfare of all customers

Creating reliability choice: How building less reliability i...

引用

IEEE General Meeting Power& Energy Society

作者： Ryan E. Kurlinski Lester Lave Marija D. Ilic Department of Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA USA Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Department of Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA USA Tepper School of Business and Department of Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA USA

关键词： Reliability Generators Power system reliability Electricity Power systems Power demand Regulators

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Trends in the history of large blackouts in the United States

Trends in the history of large blackouts in the United State...

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IEEE General Meeting Power& Energy Society

作者： Paul Hines Jay Apt Sarosh Talukdar College of Engineering University of Vermont Burlington VT USA Department of Engineering & Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA USA Electrical and Computer Engineering Department and the Department of Engineering & Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA USA

Despite efforts to mitigate blackout risk, the data available from the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) for 1984-2006 indicate that the frequency of large blackouts in the United States is not decreasing. This paper describes the data and methods used to come to this conclusion and several other patterns that appear in the data. These patterns have important implications for those who make investment and policy decisions in the electricity industry. Several example calculations show how these patterns can significantly affect the decision-making process.

关键词： Time frequency analysis Correlation Power system faults Electricity Power system protection Size measurement Probability distribution

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Modeling future cyber-physical energy systems

Modeling future cyber-physical energy systems

引用

IEEE General Meeting Power& Energy Society

作者： M.D. Ilic Le Xie U.A. Khan Jose M.F. Moura Carnegie and Computer Engineering and Engineering and Public Policy Departments Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA Edison Mission Energ Marketing and Trading AKAMAI Technologies American Association for the Advancement of Science

In this paper a model of a future combined cyber-physical energy system is introduced. We view such systems as the intertwined physical-cyber network interconnections of many non-uniform components, such as diverse energy sources and different classes of energy users, equipped with their own local cyber. This modeling approach is qualitatively different from the currently used models that do not explicitly account for the effects of sensing and communications. The proposed approach is based, instead, on representing all physical components as modules interconnected by means of an electric network. However, not all physical components can be modeled from first principles because of the extreme non-uniformity and the complexity of various classes of components. Instead, many components and/or groups of components have to be monitored and their models have to be identified using extensive signal processing, sensing, and model identification. We illustrate such combined cyber-physical models of key components, and use these to introduce a structure preserving model of a cyber-physical infrastructure of the interconnected system. Such a model becomes a basis for deciding what to sense and at which rate, what level of data mining is needed for which (groups of) physical modules to achieve predictable performance for cyber-physical future energy systems. This model rests on the premise that the performance of future energy systems can be shaped in major ways by means of broadly available cyber technologies. In order to make the most out of the available cyber technologies, the first step is to establish models which capture these interdependencies. This paper is a step in such direction.

关键词： Load modeling Power system dynamics Sensors Power systems Generators Autoregressive processes Power generation

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Moisture Absorption Phenomena in Green Composite Printed Circuit Board Prototypes

Moisture Absorption Phenomena in Green Composite Printed Cir...

引用

Pulsed Power Conference, 2005 IEEE;San Francisco,CA,USA

作者： John D. Lincoln Andrew A. Shapiro Jean-Daniel M. Saphores Oladele A. Ogunseitan Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science University of California Irvine CA USA Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science University of California Irvine CA USA Departments of Civil and Environmental Engineering Economics and Planning Policy and Design University of California Irvine CA USA Public Health Program College of Health Sciences and the Program in Industrial Ecology Department of Environmental Health Science and Policy University of California Irvine CA USA

ISBN: (纸本)9781424422722

This research developed the moisture-resistance of printed circuit board (PCB) laminate prototypes based on the non-toxic composite materials made from epoxidized linseed oil, melamine polyphosphate, and flax fibers. One of the key issues associated with using renewable base materials in composites is their sensitivity to moisture. A characterization of the properties of the 'green' printed circuit boards developed in the present study showed that moisture absorption for untreated fiber laminates (4.87% vs. established limit <0.8% for FR4 boards over a 24 hour submersion period) compromised electrical resistance and decreased dielectric breakdown to an unacceptable level. A theoretical model was used to target methods for reducing moisture absorption. Based on this model, we found that reductions in fiber diffusivity and fiber volume fraction substantially reduce composite diffusivity. Through the use of chemical treatment, moisture absorption over a 24 hour time period was reduced from 4.87% to 1.15%, which improved electrical properties. At the end of this study, 15 of 18 PCB property requirements were met, while 3 moisture-critical property targets were narrowly missed.

关键词： Printed Circuit Board Design for Environment Green Composite Moisture Absorption Natural Fiber

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