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arXiv 2024年

作者： Pagán, Josue Risco-Martín, José L. Moya, José M. Ayala, José L. Dpt. of Computer Architecture and Automation Complutense University of Madrid Madrid28040 Spain CCS-Center for Computational Simulation Campus de Montegancedo UPM Boadilla del Monte28660 Spain LSI-Integrated Systems Laboratory Technical University of Madrid Madrid28040 Spain

Prediction of symptomatic crises in chronic diseases allows to take decisions before the symptoms occur, such as the intake of drugs to avoid the symptoms or the activation of medical alarms. The prediction horizon is in this case an important parameter in order to fulfill the pharmacokinetics of medications, or the time response of medical services. This paper presents a study about the prediction limits of a chronic disease with symptomatic crises: the migraine. For that purpose, this work develops a methodology to build predictive migraine models and to improve these predictions beyond the limits of the initial models. The maximum prediction horizon is analyzed, and its dependency on the selected features is studied. A strategy for model selection is proposed to tackle the trade off between conservative but robust predictive models, with respect to less accurate predictions with higher horizons. The obtained results show a prediction horizon close to 40 minutes, which is in the time range of the drug pharmacokinetics. Experiments have been performed in a realistic scenario where input data have been acquired in an ambulatory clinical study by the deployment of a non-intrusive Wireless Body Sensor Network. Our results provide an effective methodology for the selection of the future horizon in the development of prediction algorithms for diseases experiencing symptomatic crises. © 2024, CC BY-SA.

关键词： Forecasting

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The DEVStone Metric: Performance Analysis of DEVS Simulation Engines

arXiv

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Cárdenas, Román Henares, Kevin Arroba, Patricia Risco-Martín, José L. Wainer, Gabriel A. Integrated Systems Laboratory Universidad Politécnica de Madrid Madrid Spain Dept. of Systems and Computer Engineering Carleton University OttawaON Canada Dpt. of Computer Architecture and Automation Universidad Complutense de Madrid Madrid Spain Center for Computational Simulation Universidad Politécnica de Madrid Madrid Spain

The DEVStone benchmark allows us to evaluate the performance of discrete-event simulators based on the DEVS formalism. It provides model sets with different characteristics, enabling the analysis of specific issues of simulation engines. However, this heterogeneity hinders the comparison of the results among studies, as the results obtained on each research work depend on the chosen subset of DEVStone models. We define the DEVStone metric based on the DEVStone synthetic benchmark and provide a mechanism for specifying objective ratings for DEVS-based simulators. This metric corresponds to the average number of times that a simulator can execute a selection of 12 DEVStone models in one minute. The variety of the chosen models ensures we measure different particularities provided by DEVStone. The proposed metric allows us to compare various simulators and to assess the impact of new features on their performance. We use the DEVStone metric to compare some popular DEVS-based simulators. © 2023, CC BY-SA.

关键词： Discrete event simulation

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