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Developing a drought-heatwave cluster projection (DHCP) approach for water shortage areas: A case study in Northwest China

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Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2025年第6期156卷 1-18页

作者： Tang, Yingxia Huang, Guohe Kuang, Wenshu Han, Shuo Wang, Shuguang Li, Yongping Yu, Bizheng China-Canada Center of Energy Environment and Sustainability Research UR-SDU School of Environmental Science and Engineering Shandong University Qingdao China Environmental Systems Engineering Program University of Regina Regina Canada Environment and Energy Systems Engineering Research Center School of Environment Beijing Normal University Beijing China

The study is focused on the ecological-fragile and water-shortage region in Northwest China (NWC). A drought-heatwave cluster projection (DHCP) approach is developed based on Stepwise Cluster Analysis (SCA) and multi-level factor analysis (MFA). A multi-model ensemble consisting of 5 global climate models (GCMs) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSPs) is used in the approach. It could investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of heatwaves, drought, and compound drought-heatwave events (CDHEs) in NWC. A precise projection is given by SCA in 48 stations and four indicators of CDHEs (i.e., CEN, CEDU, CEI, and CEM) are thus calculated. Finally, the individual and interactive effects of uncertainties (i.e., period, SSP, and GCM) are analyzed by MFA. Results show the SCA method can effectively reproduce precise projections for temperature and precipitation for NWC. The frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves increase significantly under SSP5-8.5. Drought will ease and then intensify projected by all SSPs. The long-term intensification trend of drought is more pronounced under SSP5-8.5. CDHEs will increase, especially under SSP5-8.5 by the 2090s. These parameters will increase to 4.59 events, 2.86 days per event, 16.7°C per event, and 4.69 days, respectively. Higher increases are found in southeastern Qinghai, northwestern Gansu, and northern Xinjiang. Period affects CDHEs projection mostly. The GCM selection and its interaction with period also affect the projection significantly. DHCP provides a comprehensive analysis of heatwaves and droughts. It is equally applicable to other water shortage areas and is expected to help better manage water resources.

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Assessing Tropical Cyclone-Driven Aerosol Transport - A High-Resolution WRF-Chem Analysis of Major Hurricane Matthew and Implications for Future Climate Scenarios

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environmental Science and Technology 2025年 2025 Apr 29页

作者： Lin, Xiajing Huang, Guohe Environmental Systems Engineering Program University of Regina Regina S4S 0A2 SK Canada

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are traditionally viewed as atmospheric cleansers, removing pollutants through precipitation and winds. However, emerging evidence suggests that TCs also transport pollutants over long distances, with their full impact on pollutant dynamics still underexplored. In this study, aerosol transport and chemical transformation during Hurricane Matthew (2016) are analyzed using high-resolution WRF-Chem simulations. The Hurricane-Driven Aerosol Transport Analysis Framework (WHDA-TAF) is developed to assess aerosol behavior under both current and future climate scenarios. Simulations based on Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) projections indicate that aerosols, such as sea salt, particulate matter, and carbonaceous aerosols, are lifted to higher altitudes and dispersed far from the storm’s core. Photochemical reactions within the cyclone generate secondary pollutants such as ozone and nitrates, which can worsen air quality even after the hurricane has dissipated. Copula-based analysis reveals that stronger hurricanes in high-emission scenarios (SSP585) are likely to increase the frequency and severity of extreme compound pollution events, even in regions distant from the storm’s direct impact. These findings challenge the view of TCs as mere atmospheric cleansers, highlighting their significant role as carriers and reactors of pollutants. Enhancing model resolution is crucial to better capture such TC-aerosol interactions and address the risks of cyclone-driven aerosol transport under climate change. © 2025 American Chemical Society.

关键词： aerosols atmospheric transport climate scenarios copula function tropical cyclones WRF-chem

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Versatile Test Reactor Open Digital engineering Ecosystem

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Insight 2025年第1期28卷 64-68页

作者： Ritter, Christopher Browning, Jeren Suyderhoud, Peter Hays, Ross Marshall, AnnMarie Han, Kevin Ashbocker, Taylor Darrington, John Nelson, Lee Idaho National Laboratory Department of Digital Systems & Engineering Versatile Test Reactor Program Idaho FallsID83401 United States Pivotal Solutions 3 Grace Avenue Suite 162 Great NeckNY11021 United States North Carolina State University Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering United States Department of Computer Science University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 205 N. Mathews Ave. UrbanaIL61801 United States

Modern design of nuclear facilities represents unique challenges: enabling the design of complex advanced concepts, supporting geographically dispersed teams, and supporting first-of-a-kind system development. Errors made early in design can introduce silent errors. These errors can cascade causing unknown risk of complex engineering programs. The Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) program uses digital-engineering principles for design, procurement, construction, and operation to reduce risk and improve efficiencies. Digital engineering is an integrated, model-based approach which connects proven digital tools such as building information management (BIM), project controls, and systems-engineering software tools into a cohesive environment. The VTR team hypothesizes using these principals can lead to similar risk and cost reductions and schedule efficiencies observed in other engineering industries. This research investigates the use of a digital engineering ecosystem in the design of a 300-MWt sodium-cooled fast reactor. This ecosystem was deployed to over 200 engineers and used to deliver the conceptual design of the VTR. We conclude that initial results show significant reductions in user latency (1000x at peak use), the possibility of direct finite-element-analysis (FEA) integrations to computer-aided design (CAD) tools, and nuclear reactor system design descriptions (SDDs) that we can fully link throughout design in data-driven requirements-management software. These early results led to the VTR maintaining milestone performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Copyright © 2022 by Idaho National Laboratory. Published by INCOSE with permission.

关键词： Sodium-cooled fast reactors

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Extension-type flexible pneumatic actuator with a large extension force using a cross-link mechanism based on pantographs

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Sensors and Actuators A: Physical 2025年 390卷

作者： Shimooka, So Tadachi, Kazuma Kamegawa, Tetsushi Faculty of Environmental Life Natural Science and Technology Okayama University 3-1-1 Tsushima-naka Kita-ku Okayama Japan Mechanical and Systems Engineering Program School of Engineering Okayama University 3-1-1 Tsushima-naka Kita-ku Okayama Japan

In this study, we propose an extension-type flexible pneumatic actuator (EFPA) with a high extension force and no buckling. In a previous study, soft actuators that extended in the axial direction by applying a supply pressure were unable to generate the extension's pushing force because the actuators buckled owing to their high flexibility. To generate a pushing force, the circumferential stiffness of an extension-type flexible soft actuator must be reinforced. Therefore, a cross-linked EFPA (CL-EFPA) was developed, inspired by a pantograph that restrains the EFPA three-dimensionally using the proposed link mechanism. The proposed CL-EFPA consists of three EFPAs and a cross-linking mechanism for integrating each EFPA circumference. The pushing force of the CL-EFPA is approximately 3.0 times compared with that generated by the previous EFPA with plates to restrain its plane. To perform various bending motions, attitude control was performed using an analytical model and a system that included valves, sensors, and controllers. © 2025 The Authors

关键词： Buckling

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Mechanisms of change in accelerated carbonation progress in cement paste under different relative humidity conditions

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Cement and Concrete Research 2025年 195卷

作者： Cheng, Luge Kurihara, Ryo Ohkubo, Takahiro Kitagaki, Ryoma Teramoto, Atsushi Suda, Yuya Maruyama, Ippei Department of Architecture of Engineering The University of Tokyo Tokyo113-8656 Japan Department of Applied Chemistry and Biotechnology of Engineering Chiba University Chiba263-8522 Japan Division of Human Environmental Systems of Engineering Hokkaido University Sapporo060-8628 Japan Department of Architecture of Advanced Science and Engineering Hiroshima University Hiroshima739-8527 Japan Civil Engineering Program Faculty of Engineering University of the Ryukyus Okinawa903-0213 Japan

This study investigated the evolution of water content and carbonation in OPC cement paste under low, intermediate, and high relative humidity (RH) conditions, emphasizing the role of water in accelerated carbonation and microstructural modifications. Under high RH, the carbonation suppressed after 28 days owing to calcium ion accumulation at the surface, precipitating as calcite. This calcite formation leads to a dense calcium carbonate layer, reducing the gas–liquid interfacial area for CO₂ dissolution and blocking further water evaporation and carbonation process. Low RH conditions cause the agglomeration of calcium silicate aluminate hydrate (C–(A)–S–H), increasing empty space in the microstructure. This facilitates CO₂ penetration but limits CH carbonation due to insufficient water availability. These findings highlight the significance of water distribution and microstructural evolution in CO₂ sequestration, revealing that RH critically influences the progress of carbonation by altering the pore structure and subsequent water availability in cementitious materials. © 2025 The Authors

关键词： Carbonation

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Increasing risk of oppressive heatwaves over India in the future warming

arXiv

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arXiv 2025年

作者： Sudharsan, Naveen Singh, Jitendra Ghosh, Subimal Karmakar, Subhankar Environmental Science and Engineering Department Indian Institute of Technology Maharashtra Bombay India Department of Environmental Systems Science ETH Zürich Zürich Switzerland Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Maharashtra Bombay India Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies Indian Institute of Technology Maharashtra Bombay India Centre for Urban Science & Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Maharashtra Bombay India

The frequency of heatwave events has been increasing with climate change across the globe, causing devastating impacts on human and natural systems. Particularly, the co-occurrence of high temperature with high humidity has the potential of worse impacts on human health than extreme temperature alone. We use observations to examine the characteristics of extreme (high temperature and low humidity) and oppressive (high temperature and high humidity) heatwaves and their impacts on human mortality. We also use climate model simulations to understand the likelihood of heatwaves under varied warming conditions in future climates. We find an increasing trend in the number of days of extreme and oppressive heatwaves, with surprisingly a higher rate of increase in oppressive heatwaves. We also observe a higher correlation between oppressive heatwaves and historical heat-stress-related human deaths than extreme heatwaves, indicating more substantial impacts of oppressive heatwaves on the human population than extreme heatwaves. Further, our results show a five-fold increase in the number of days of oppressive heatwaves under 1.5°warming in both mid (2035-2065) and end (2070- 2100) of the 21st century, relative to the historical period (1975 to 2005) whereas the number of extreme heatwave days remains relatively constant in mid and end of this century. Remarkably, 2°warming results in an eight-fold and almost two-fold increase in the number of days of oppressive heatwaves by the end of the century relative to the historical period and 1.5°warming conditions. These results suggest that limiting the mean global warming to 1.5°can reduce the likelihood of oppressive and extreme heatwaves by 44% and 25% by the end of the century relative to the 2°warming world. Moreover, the remarkable increase in oppressive heatwave days highlights the elevated risk of heatwaves over densely populated countries and indicates an imminent need for adaptation measures. © 2025, CC BY.

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Complementary strengths of water footprint and life cycle assessments in analyzing global freshwater appropriation and its local impacts – Recommendations from an Interdisciplinary discussion series

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Ecological Indicators 2025年 174卷

作者： Berger, Markus Gerbens-Leenes, Winnie Karandish, Fatemeh Aldaya, Maite M. Boulay, Anne-Marie Hogeboom, Rick J. Link, Andreas Manzardo, Alessandro Mialyk, Oleksandr Motoshita, Masaharu Nuñez, Montserrat Pfister, Stephan Rosenbaum, Ralph K. Scherer, Laura Su, Han Wöhler, Lara University of Twente Chair of Multidisciplinary Water Management Enschede Netherlands Groningen Netherlands Earth Systems and Global Change Group Wageningen University and Research Wageningen Netherlands Pamplona Spain Pamplona Spain CIRAIG Polytechnique Montréal Montréal Canada Water Footprint Network Enschede Netherlands Technical University of Berlin Chair of Sustainable Engineering Berlin Germany Padova Italy Japan Sustainability in Biosystems Research Program Caldes de Montbui Barcelona Spain Institute of Environmental Engineering Ecological Systems Design Department of Civil Environmental and Geomatic Engineering ETH Zurich Switzerland Leiden University Leiden Netherlands

Considering globally increasing water challenges, the analysis of water use along supply chains is of great relevance and can be tackled by mainly two methodological approaches: Water Footprint Assessment (WFA) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). While sharing the same goal of promoting sustainable water use, both methods developed in different contexts and scientific communities. This has led to heated debates on methodological presuppositions that at times has become unconstructive. To build mutual understanding and enable a fruitful cooperation, researchers from both communities have exchanged over the course of two years. This paper summarizes the outcomes of this discussion series by providing i) a description of the development of both approaches and their ways of assessing freshwater consumption and pollution, ii) an application in a case study, and iii) an analysis of strengths and weaknesses in relation to questions decision-makers may have. Our analysis revealed that WFA's strength lies in its ability to measure freshwater appropriation, water-use efficiency, water scarcity and total pollution levels. This makes WFA particularly useful for crop selection as well as agricultural and river basin water management. With its focus on assessing impacts, LCA is strong in quantifying potential consequences of water use for humans and ecosystems. This makes it particularly useful for assessing complex supply chains and for analysing water-related impacts in combination with other environmental aspects. Rather than being in competition with each other, we emphasize the individual and complementary strengths of both approaches and their joint efforts in addressing the world's pressing water challenges. © 2025 The Authors

关键词： Life cycle assessment

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A POSSIBLE EFFECT OF SALINITY FLUCTUATION ON ABUNDANCE OF BENTHIC VEGETATION AND ASSOCIATED FAUNA IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA BAY

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ESTUARIES 1993年第4期16卷 703-717页

作者： MONTAGUE, CL LEY, JA 1. Systems Ecology Program Department of Environmental Engineering Sciences University of Florida 32611 Gainesville Florida

In southern Florida, a vast network of canals and water control structures mediate freshwater discharge into the coastal zone. Management protocol for one such canal network (C-111) is being modified in part to try to improve habitat for estuarine fish and wading birds in northeastern Florida Bay, an estuarine part of Everglades National Park. Changes in canal management could alter the spatial and temporal salinity regime in the estuary. To better predict the effect of such changes on estuarine habitat, abundances of submersed vegetation and benthic animals were sampled repeatedly at 12 stations that differed in salinity. A variety of other parameters were also measured (nutrients, light, temperature, oxygen, sediment characteristics, and others). Mean salinity among stations ranged from 11.4 parts per thousand to 33.1 parts per thousand. Densities of benthic plants and animals differed among stations by several orders of magnitude. The standard deviation of salinity was the best environmental correlate with mean plant biomass and benthic animal density: less biota occurred at stations with greater fluctuations in salinity. The two stations with the least plant biomass also had the highest mean water temperatures. In a stepwise multiple regression analysis, standard deviation of salinity accounted for 59% of the variation in the logarithm of mean plant biomass among stations. For every 3 parts per thousand increase in the standard deviation, total benthic plant biomass decreased by an order of magnitude. Mean water temperature accounted for only 14% of the variation, and mean salinity was not included for lack of significance. At stations with widely fluctuating salinities, not only was biomass low, but species dominance also frequently changed. Severe fluctuation in salinity may have prevented abundant benthos by causing physiological stress that reduced growth and survival. Salinity may not have remained within the range of tolerance of any one plant species for

关键词： Salinity Biomass Plants Benthic plants Vegetation Animals Standard deviation Sediments Phosphorus Water temperature

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Machine learning-based analysis on factors influencing blood heavy metal concentrations in the Korean CHildren's environmental health Study (Ko-CHENS)

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Science of the Total Environment 2025年 978卷

作者： Jung, Seowoo Shah, Surabhi Oh, Jongmin Bang, Yoorim Lee, Ji Hyen Kim, Hwan-Cheol Jeong, Kyoung Sook Park, Huibyeol Lee, Eun-Kyung Hong, Yun-Chul Ha, Eunhee Department of Statistics Ewha Womans University Seoul Korea Republic of Department of Environmental Medicine College of Medicine Ewha Womans University Seoul Korea Republic of Department of Human Systems Medicine College of Medicine Seoul National University Seoul Korea Republic of College of Medicine Ewha Womans University Seoul Korea Republic of Institute for Development and Human Security Ewha Womans University Seoul Korea Republic of Department of Pediatrics College of Medicine Ewha Womans University Seoul Korea Republic of Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine College of Medicine Inha University Hospital Inha University Incheon Korea Republic of Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine Wonju College of Medicine Wonju Severance Christian Hospital Yonsei University Wonju Korea Republic of Environmental Health Research Division National Institute of Environmental Research Incheon Korea Republic of Institute of Environmental Medicine Medical Research Center Seoul National University Korea Republic of Graduate Program in System Health Science and Engineering Ewha Womans University Ewha Medical Research Institute College of Medicine Seoul Korea Republic of

Heavy metal concentration in pregnant women affects neurocognitive and behavioral development of their infants and children. The majority of existing research focusing on pregnant women's heavy metal concentration has considered individual environmental factor. In this study, we aim to comprehensively consider lifestyle, food, and environmental factors to determine the most influential factor affecting heavy metal concentration in pregnant women. The Ko-CHENS (Korean CHildren health and environmental Study) is a nationwide prospective birth cohort study in South Korea enrolling pregnant women from 2015 to 2020. A total of 5458 eligible pregnant women were included in this study, and 897 variables were included in questionnaire comprising: maternal general information, indoor and living environment, dietary habits, health behavior, exposure to chemicals. Lead, cadmium and mercury concentration on blood were measured in early, late pregnancy and in cord blood at birth. Variables that might be related to heavy metal concentrations were included in machine learning models. Random forest and XGBoost machine learning models were conducted for predictions. Both models had similar but better performance than multiple linear regression. Kimchi (β = 1.55), seaweed (β = 0.40), fatty fish (β = 1.55), intakes respectively affected lead, cadmium, and mercury exposure through early, late pregnancy and cord blood. © 2025

关键词： Obstetrics

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Projecting Forest Fire Probability in South Korea under Climate Change, Population, and Forest Management Scenarios Using AI & Process-Based Hybrid Model (FLAM-Net)

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IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing 2025年

作者： Jo, Hyun-Woo Won, Myoung-Soo Kraxner, Florian Jeon, Seongwoo Son, Yowhan Krasovskiy, Andrey Lee, Woo-Kyun Korea University OJEong Resilience Institute (OJERI) Seoul 20841 South Korea Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Program International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Agriculture Forestry and Ecosystem Services (AFE) Group Laxenburg Austria National Institute of Forest Science National Forest Satellite Information & Technology Center Seoul 05203 South Korea International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Agriculture Forestry and Ecosystem Services (AFE) Group Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Program Laxenburg Austria Korea University Department of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering Seoul 20841 South Korea

Climate change-induced heat waves and densely forested areas near urban centers in South Korea create complex challenges for wildfire response systems. Various forest fire models have been developed to address this, each with unique strengths and weaknesses. Process-based models offer high interpretability through human domain knowledge but require extensive optimization, while machine learning models automatically identify important features but have limited interpretability. To leverage the strengths of both models, this study aimed to integrate human domain knowledge into a machine learning framework. IIASA's wildfire cLimate impacts and Adaptation Model (FLAM)—a process-based model incorporating biophysical and human impacts—was developed as a neural network called FLAM-Net. Enhancements included improving backpropagation for optimization and introducing algorithms for national-specific fire ignition dynamics. FLAM-Net was applied at multiple scales and integrated through U-Net-based architecture, named Deep Neural FLAM (DN-FLAM), to produce downscaled predictions. The optimization revealed spatial concentration of fires near metropolitan areas and the east coast, with temporal concentration in spring due to agricultural burning. Integration of multi-scale features through DN-FLAM achieved optimal performance with Pearson's r values of 0.943, 0.840, and 0.641 for temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal validations. Future projections based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) indicated increasing fire frequencies until 2050, followed by a decrease due to increased precipitation. This study demonstrates the benefits of the hybrid approach, providing interpretability, accuracy, and efficient optimization. These hybrid models offer scientific evidence to guide locally tailored decision-making for climate change-induced forest fires and lay the groundwork for global application through their optimization capabilities. © 2008-2012 IEEE.

关键词： Climate change forest fire hybrid modelling neural networks

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