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arXiv 2024年

作者： Aiello, S. Albert, A. Alshamsi, M. Alves Garre, S. Ambrosone, A. Ameli, F. Andre, M. Androutsou, E. Anguita, M. Aphecetche, L. Ardid, M. Ardid, S. Atmani, H. Aublin, J. Badaracco, F. Bailly-Salins, L. Bardačová, Z. Baret, B. Bariego-Quintana, A. Basegmez du Pree, S. Becherini, Y. Bendahman, M. Benfenati, F. Benhassi, M. Benoit, D.M. Berbee, E. Bertin, V. Biagi, S. Boettcher, M. Bonanno, D. Boumaaza, J. Bouta, M. Bouwhuis, M. Bozza, C. Bozza, R.M. Brânzaş, H. Bretaudeau, F. Breuhaus, M. Bruijn, R. Brunner, J. Bruno, R. Buis, E. Buompane, R. Busto, J. Caiffi, B. Calvo, D. Campion, S. Capone, A. Carenini, F. Carretero, V. Cartraud, T. Castaldi, P. Cecchini, V. Celli, S. Cerisy, L. Chabab, M. Chadolias, M. Chen, A. Cherubini, S. Chiarusi, T. Circella, M. Cocimano, R. Coelho, J.A.B. Coleiro, A. Condorelli, A. Coniglione, R. Coyle, P. Creusot, A. Cuttone, G. Dallier, R. Darras, Y. De Benedittis, A. De Martino, B. Decoene, V. Del Burgo, R. Del Rosso, I. Di Mauro, L.S. Di Palma, I. Díaz, A.F. Diaz, C. Diego-Tortosa, D. Distefano, C. Domi, A. Donzaud, C. Dornic, D. Dörr, M. Drakopoulou, E. Drouhin, D. Ducoin, J.-G. Dvornický, R. Eberl, T. Eckerová, E. Eddymaoui, A. van Eeden, T. Eff, M. van Eijk, D. El Bojaddaini, I. El Hedri, S. Enzenhöfer, A. Ferrara, G. Filipović, M.D. Filippini, F. Franciotti, D. Fusco, L.A. Gagliardini, S. Gal, T. García Méndez, J. Garcia Soto, A. Gatius Oliver, C. Geißelbrecht, N. Ghaddari, H. Gialanella, L. Gibson, B.K. Giorgio, E. Goos, I. Goswami, P. Gozzini, S.R. Gracia, R. Graf, K. Guidi, C. Guillon, B. Gutiérrez, M. Haack, C. van Haren, H. Heijboer, A. Hekalo, A. Hennig, L. Hernández-Rey, J.J. Idrissi Ibnsalih, W. Illuminati, G. Joly, D. de Jong, M. de Jong, P. Jung, B.J. Kalekin, O. Katz, U.F. Kharkhelauri, L. Kistauri, G. Kopper, C. Kouchner, A. Kueviakoe, V. Kulikovskiy, V. Kvatadze, R. Labalme, M. Lahmann, R. Larosa, G. Lastoria, C. Lazo, A. Le Stum, S. Lehaut, G. Leonora, E. Via Santa Sofia 64 Catania95123 Italy Université de Strasbourg CNRS IPHC UMR 7178 StrasbourgF-67000 France Aix Marseille Univ CNRS IN2P3 CPPM Marseille France c/Catedrático José Beltrán 2 Paterna Valencia46980 Spain INFN Sezione di Napoli Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo Via Cintia ed. G Napoli80126 Italy Università di Napoli "Federico II" Dip. Scienze Fisiche "E. Pancini" Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo Via Cintia ed. G Napoli80126 Italy INFN Sezione di Roma Piazzale Aldo Moro 2 Roma00185 Italy Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya Laboratori d’Aplicacions Bioacústiques Centre Tecnològic de Vilanova i la Geltrú Avda. Rambla Exposició s/n Vilanova i la Geltrú08800 Spain NCSR Demokritos Institute of Nuclear and Particle Physics Ag. Paraskevi Attikis Athens15310 Greece University of Granada Dept. of Computer Architecture and Technology/CITIC Granada18071 Spain Subatech IMT Atlantique IN2P3-CNRS Nantes Université 4 rue Alfred Kastler - La Chantrerie BP 20722 Nantes44307 France Universitat Politècnica de València Instituto de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada de las Zonas Costeras C/ Paranimf 1 Gandia46730 Spain University Mohammed V in Rabat Faculty of Sciences 4 av. Ibn Battouta B.P. 1014 RabatR.P. 10000 Morocco Université Paris Cité CNRS Astroparticule et Cosmologie ParisF-75013 France INFN Sezione di Genova Via Dodecaneso 33 Genova16146 Italy LPC CAEN Normandie Univ ENSICAEN UNICAEN CNRS IN2P3 6 boulevard Maréchal Juin Caen14050 France Czech Technical University in Prague Institute of Experimental and Applied Physics Husova 240/5 Prague110 00 Czech Republic Comenius University in Bratislava Department of Nuclear Physics and Biophysics Mlynska dolina F1 Bratislava842 48 Slovakia Nikhef National Institute for Subatomic Physics PO Box 41882 Amsterdam1009 DB Netherlands INFN Sezione di Bologna v.le C. Berti-Pichat 6/2 Bologna40127 Italy Università di Bologna Dipartimento di Fis

Gamma-ray bursts are promising candidate sources of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos. The recent GRB 221009A event, identified as the brightest gamma-ray burst ever detected, provides a unique opportunity to investigate hadronic emissions involving neutrinos. The KM3NeT undersea neutrino detectors participated in the worldwide followup effort triggered by the event, searching for neutrino events. In this paper, we summarize subsequent searches, in a wide energy range from MeV up to a few PeVs. No neutrino events are found in any of the searches performed. Upper limits on the neutrino emission associated with GRB 221009A are computed. © 2024, CC BY.

关键词： Stars

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First neutrino oscillation measurement in KM3NeT/ORCA 37

First neutrino oscillation measurement in KM3NeT/ORCA

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37th International Cosmic Ray Conference, ICRC 2021

作者： Nauta, Lodewijk Pestel, Valentin Mańczak, Jerzy Stavropoulos, Dimitris Carretero, Victor Chau, Nhan Aly, Zineb de Jong, Paul Ageron, M. Aiello, S. Albert, A. Alshamsi, M. Alves Garre, S. Aly, Z. Ambrosone, A. Ameli, F. Andre, M. Androulakis, G. Anghinolfi, M. Anguita, M. Anton, G. Ardid, M. Ardid, S. Assal, W. Aublin, J. Bagatelas, C. Baret, B. du Pree, S. Basegmez Bendahman, M. Benfenati, F. Berbee, E. van den Berg, A.M. Bertin, V. Beurthey, S. van Beveren, V. Biagi, S. Billault, M. Bissinger, M. Boettcher, M. Bou Cabo, M. Boumaaza, J. Bouta, M. Boutonnet, C. Bouvet, G. Bouwhuis, M. Bozza, C. Brânzaş, H. Bruijn, R. Brunner, J. Bruno, R. Buis, E. Buompane, R. Busto, J. Caiffi, B. Caillat, L. Calvo, D. Campion, S. Capone, A. Carduner, H. Carretero, V. Castaldi, P. Celli, S. Cereseto, R. Chabab, M. Champion, C. Chau, N. Chen, A. Cherubini, S. Chiarella, V. Chiarusi, T. Circella, M. Cocimano, R. Coelho, J.A.B. Coleiro, A. Colomer Molla, M. Colonges, S. Coniglione, R. Cosquer, A. Coyle, P. Cresta, M. Creusot, A. Cruz, A. Cuttone, G. D’Amico, A. Dallier, R. De Martino, B. De Palma, M. Di Palma, I. Díaz, A.F. Diego-Tortosa, D. Distefano, C. Domi, A. Donzaud, C. Dornic, D. Dörr, M. Drouhin, D. Eberl, T. Eddyamoui, A. van Eeden, T. van Eijk, D. El Bojaddaini, I. Eljarrari, H. Elsaesser, D. Enzenhöfer, A. Espinosa, V. Fermani, P. Ferrara, G. Filipović, M.D. Filippini, F. Fransen, J. Fusco, L.A. Gajanana, D. Gal, T. García Méndez, J. Garcia Soto, A. Garçon, E. Garufi, F. Gatius, C. Geißelbrecht, N. Gialanella, L. Giorgio, E. Gozzini, S.R. Gracia, R. Graf, K. Grella, G. Guderian, D. Guidi, C. Guillon, B. Gutiérrez, M. Haefner, J. Hallmann, S. Hamdaoui, H. van Haren, H. Heijboer, A. Hekalo, A. Hennig, L. Henry, S. Hernández-Rey, J.J. Hofestädt, J. Huang, F. Idrissi Ibnsalih, W. Ilioni, A. Illuminati, G. James, C.W. Janezashvili, D. Jansweijer, P. de Jong, M. de Jong, P. Jung, B.J. Kadler, M. Kalaczyński, P. Kalekin, O. Nikhef Science Park 105 Amsterdam1098XG Netherlands IFIC - Instituto de Física Corpuscular CSIC - Universitat de València c/Catedrático José Beltrán 2 Paterna Valencia46980 Spain NCSR Demokritos Institute of Nuclear and Particle Physics Ag. Paraskevi Attikis Athens15310 Greece Université de Paris CNRS Astroparticule et Cosmologie ParisF-75013 France Aix Marseille Univ CNRS IN2P3 CPPM Marseille France Universiteit van Amsterdam Institute of Physics Science Park 904 Amsterdam1098XH Netherlands INFN Sezione di Catania Via Santa Sofia 64 Catania95123 Italy Université de Strasbourg CNRS IPHC UMR 7178 StrasbourgF-67000 France Dipartimento di Fisica INFN Sezione di Padova Università di Padova PadovaI-35131 Italy INFN Sezione di Napoli Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo Via Cintia ed. G Napoli80126 Italy Università di Napoli "Federico II" Dip. Scienze Fisiche "E. Pancini" Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo Via Cintia ed. G Napoli80126 Italy INFN Sezione di Roma Piazzale Aldo Moro 2 Roma00185 Italy Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya Laboratori d’Aplicacions Bioacústiques Centre Tecnològic de Vilanova i la Geltrú Avda. Rambla Exposició s/n Vilanova i la Geltrú08800 Spain INFN Sezione di Genova Via Dodecaneso 33 Genova16146 Italy University of Granada Dept. of Computer Architecture and Technology CITIC Granada18071 Spain Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg Erlangen Centre for Astroparticle Physics Erwin-Rommel-Straße 1 Erlangen91058 Germany Universitat Politècnica de València Instituto de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada de las Zonas Costeras C/Paranimf 1 Gandia46730 Spain Nikhef National Institute for Subatomic Physics PO Box 41882 Amsterdam1009 DB Netherlands University Mohammed V in Rabat Faculty of Sciences 4 av. Ibn Battouta B.P. 1014 RabatR.P. 10000 Morocco INFN Sezione di Bologna v.le C. Berti-Pichat 6/2 Bologna40127 Italy Università di Bologna Dipartimento di Fisica e As

The KM3NeT/ORCA is a next-generation neutrino detector currently under construction in the Mediterranean Sea. There are currently 6 Detection Units deployed, and in the past year the detector has been steadily taking data. Here the first neutrino oscillation measurement is presented using data taken with the ORCA detector 6 Detection Units, containing 354.6 days of exposure. Selection criteria are discussed, followed by a neutrino oscillation analysis. In the analysis it is found that oscillations are preferred with a confidence level of 5.9 σ over "no oscillations". Likelihood scans of the Δm312 and sin2 θ23 parameter also show a strong exclusion of the no oscillation hypothesis. The sensitivity contour in (sin2 θ23, Δm312) is presented, showing results that are approaching to being being competitive with other experiments [1]. © Copyright owned by the author(s).

关键词： Neutrons

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Sensitivity estimates for diffuse, point-like and extended neutrino sources with KM3NeT/ARCA 37

Sensitivity estimates for diffuse, point-like and extended n...

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37th International Cosmic Ray Conference, ICRC 2021

作者： Caiffi, B. Garcia Soto, A. Heijboer, A. Kulikovskiy, V. Muller, R.S. Sanguineti, M. Ageron, M. Aiello, S. Albert, A. Alshamsi, M. Alves Garre, S. Aly, Z. Ambrosone, A. Ameli, F. Andre, M. Androulakis, G. Anghinolfi, M. Anguita, M. Anton, G. Ardid, M. Ardid, S. Assal, W. Aublin, J. Bagatelas, C. Baret, B. Basegmez du Pree, S. Bendahman, M. Benfenati, F. Berbee, E. van den Berg, A.M. Bertin, V. Beurthey, S. van Beveren, V. Biagi, S. Billault, M. Bissinger, M. Boettcher, M. Bou Cabo, M. Boumaaza, J. Bouta, M. Boutonnet, C. Bouvet, G. Bouwhuis, M. Bozza, C. Brânzaş, H. Bruijn, R. Brunner, J. Bruno, R. Buis, E. Buompane, R. Busto, J. Caiffi, B. Caillat, L. Calvo, D. Campion, S. Capone, A. Carduner, H. Carretero, V. Castaldi, P. Celli, S. Cereseto, R. Chabab, M. Champion, C. Chau, N. Chen, A. Cherubini, S. Chiarella, V. Chiarusi, T. Circella, M. Cocimano, R. Coelho, J.A.B. Coleiro, A. Colomer Molla, M. Colonges, S. Coniglione, R. Cosquer, A. Coyle, P. Cresta, M. Creusot, A. Cruz, A. Cuttone, G. D’Amico, A. Dallier, R. De Martino, B. De Palma, M. Di Palma, I. Díaz, A.F. Diego-Tortosa, D. Distefano, C. Domi, A. Donzaud, C. Dornic, D. Dörr, M. Drouhin, D. Eberl, T. Eddyamoui, A. van Eeden, T. van Eijk, D. El Bojaddaini, I. Eljarrari, H. Elsaesser, D. Enzenhöfer, A. Espinosa, V. Fermani, P. Ferrara, G. Filipović, M.D. Filippini, F. Fransen, J. Fusco, L.A. Gajanana, D. Gal, T. García Méndez, J. Garcia Soto, A. Garçon, E. Garufi, F. Gatius, C. Geißelbrecht, N. Gialanella, L. Giorgio, E. Gozzini, S.R. Gracia, R. Graf, K. Grella, G. Guderian, D. Guidi, C. Guillon, B. Gutiérrez, M. Haefner, J. Hallmann, S. Hamdaoui, H. van Haren, H. Heijboer, A. Hekalo, A. Hennig, L. Henry, S. Hernández-Rey, J.J. Hofestädt, J. Huang, F. Idrissi Ibnsalih, W. Ilioni, A. Illuminati, G. James, C.W. Janezashvili, D. Jansweijer, P. de Jong, M. de Jong, P. Jung, B.J. Kadler, M. Kalaczyński, P. INFN - Sezione di Genova Via Dodecaneso 33 Genova16146 Italy Nikhef Science Park 105 Amsterdam1098 XG Netherlands University of Amsterdam Science Park 904 Amsterdam1098 XH Netherlands Dipartimento di Fisica dell’Università Via Dodecaneso 33 Genova16146 Italy Aix Marseille Univ CNRS IN2P3 CPPM Marseille France INFN Sezione di Catania Via Santa Sofia 64 Catania95123 Italy Université de Strasbourg CNRS IPHC UMR 7178 StrasbourgF-67000 France Université de Paris CNRS Astroparticule et Cosmologie ParisF-75013 France IFIC - Instituto de Física Corpuscular CSIC - Universitat de València c/Catedrático José Beltrán 2 Paterna Valencia46980 Spain INFN Sezione di Napoli Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo Via Cintia ed. G Napoli80126 Italy Università di Napoli "Federico II" Dip. Scienze Fisiche "E. Pancini" Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo Via Cintia ed. G Napoli80126 Italy INFN Sezione di Roma Piazzale Aldo Moro 2 Roma00185 Italy Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya Laboratori d’Aplicacions Bioacústiques Centre Tecnològic de Vilanova i la Geltrú Avda. Rambla Exposició s/n Vilanova i la Geltrú08800 Spain NCSR Demokritos Institute of Nuclear and Particle Physics Ag. Paraskevi Attikis Athens15310 Greece INFN Sezione di Genova Via Dodecaneso 33 Genova16146 Italy University of Granada Dept. of Computer Architecture and Technology CITIC Granada18071 Spain Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg Erlangen Centre for Astroparticle Physics Erwin-Rommel-Straße 1 Erlangen91058 Germany Universitat Politècnica de València Instituto de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada de las Zonas Costeras C/Paranimf 1 Gandia46730 Spain Nikhef National Institute for Subatomic Physics PO Box 41882 Amsterdam1009 DB Netherlands University Mohammed V in Rabat Faculty of Sciences 4 av. Ibn Battouta B.P. 1014 RabatR.P. 10000 Morocco INFN Sezione di Bologna v.le C. Berti-Pichat 6/2 Bologna40127 Italy Dipartimento di Fisi

The identification of cosmic objects emitting high energy neutrinos could provide new insights about the Universe and its active sources. The existence of these cosmic neutrinos has been proven by the IceCube collaboration, but the big question of which sources these neutrinos originate from, remains unanswered. The KM3NeT detector for Astroparticle Research with Cosmics in the Abyss (ARCA), with a cubic kilometer instrumented volume, is currently being built in the Mediterranean Sea. It will excel at identifying cosmic neutrino sources due to its unprecedented angular resolution for muon neutrinos (◦ for E > 10 TeV neutrinos). KM3NeT has a view of the sky complementary to IceCube, and is sensitive to neutrinos across a wide range of energies. In order to identify the signature of cosmic neutrino sources in the background of atmospheric neutrinos and muons, statistical methods are being developed and tested with Monte-Carlo pseudo-experiments. This contribution presents the most recent sensitivity estimates for diffuse, point-like and extended neutrino sources with KM3NeT/ARCA. © Copyright owned by the author(s).

关键词： Cosmology

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Genome-wide association study of lung adenocarcinoma in East Asia and comparison with a European population

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Nature communications 2023年第1期14卷 3043页

作者： Jianxin Shi Kouya Shiraishi Jiyeon Choi Keitaro Matsuo Tzu-Yu Chen Juncheng Dai Rayjean J Hung Kexin Chen Xiao-Ou Shu Young Tae Kim Maria Teresa Landi Dongxin Lin Wei Zheng Zhihua Yin Baosen Zhou Bao Song Jiucun Wang Wei Jie Seow Lei Song I-Shou Chang Wei Hu Li-Hsin Chien Qiuyin Cai Yun-Chul Hong Hee Nam Kim Yi-Long Wu Maria Pik Wong Brian Douglas Richardson Karen M Funderburk Shilan Li Tongwu Zhang Charles Breeze Zhaoming Wang Batel Blechter Bryan A Bassig Jin Hee Kim Demetrius Albanes Jason Y Y Wong Min-Ho Shin Lap Ping Chung Yang Yang She-Juan An Hong Zheng Yasushi Yatabe Xu-Chao Zhang Young-Chul Kim Neil E Caporaso Jiang Chang James Chung Man Ho Michiaki Kubo Yataro Daigo Minsun Song Yukihide Momozawa Yoichiro Kamatani Masashi Kobayashi Kenichi Okubo Takayuki Honda Dean H Hosgood Hideo Kunitoh Harsh Patel Shun-Ichi Watanabe Yohei Miyagi Haruhiko Nakayama Shingo Matsumoto Hidehito Horinouchi Masahiro Tsuboi Ryuji Hamamoto Koichi Goto Yuichiro Ohe Atsushi Takahashi Akiteru Goto Yoshihiro Minamiya Megumi Hara Yuichiro Nishida Kenji Takeuchi Kenji Wakai Koichi Matsuda Yoshinori Murakami Kimihiro Shimizu Hiroyuki Suzuki Motonobu Saito Yoichi Ohtaki Kazumi Tanaka Tangchun Wu Fusheng Wei Hongji Dai Mitchell J Machiela Jian Su Yeul Hong Kim In-Jae Oh Victor Ho Fun Lee Gee-Chen Chang Ying-Huang Tsai Kuan-Yu Chen Ming-Shyan Huang Wu-Chou Su Yuh-Min Chen Adeline Seow Jae Yong Park Sun-Seog Kweon Kun-Chieh Chen Yu-Tang Gao Biyun Qian Chen Wu Daru Lu Jianjun Liu Ann G Schwartz Richard Houlston Margaret R Spitz Ivan P Gorlov Xifeng Wu Ping Yang Stephen Lam Adonina Tardon Chu Chen Stig E Bojesen Mattias Johansson Angela Risch Heike Bickeböller Bu-Tian Ji H-Erich Wichmann David C Christiani Gadi Rennert Susanne Arnold Paul Brennan James McKay John K Field Sanjay S Shete Loic Le Marchand Geoffrey Liu Angeline Andrew Lambertus A Kiemeney Shan Zienolddiny-Narui Kjell Grankvist Mikael Johansson Angela Cox Fiona Taylor Jian-Min Yuan Philip Lazarus Matthew B Schabath Melinda C Aldrich Hyo-Sung Jeon Shih Sheng Jiang Jae Sook Sung C Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics National Cancer Institute Rockville MD USA. jianxin.shi@nih.gov. Division of Genome Biology National Cancer Research Institute Tokyo Japan. Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics National Cancer Institute Rockville MD USA. Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Aichi Cancer Center Research Institute Nagoya Japan. Institute of Population Health Sciences National Health Research Institutes Zhunan Taiwan. Department of Epidemiology School of Public Health Nanjing Medical University Nanjing China. Jiangsu Key Lab of Cancer Biomarkers Prevention and Treatment Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine Nanjing Medical University Nanjing China. Prosserman Centre for Population Health Research Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute Sinai Health Toronto ON Canada. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics National Clinical Research Center for Cancer Key Laboratory of Molecular Cancer Epidemiology of Tianjin Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital Tianjin Medical University Tianjin China. Division of Epidemiology Department of Medicine Vanderbilt University Medical Center and Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center Nashville TN USA. Cancer Research Institute Seoul National University College of Medicine Seoul Republic of Korea. Department of Etiology & Carcinogenesis and State Key Laboratory of Molecular Oncology Cancer Institute and Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing China. Department of Epidemiology School of Public Health China Medical University Shenyang China. Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Center of Evidence Based Medicine The First Hospital of China Medical University Shenyang China. Department of Oncology Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences Jinan China. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Contemporary Anthropology School of Life Sciences Fudan University Shanghai China. S

Lung adenocarcinoma is the most common type of lung cancer. Known risk variants explain only a small fraction of lung adenocarcinoma heritability. Here, we conducted a two-stage genome-wide association study of lung adenocarcinoma of East Asian ancestry (21,658 cases and 150,676 controls; 54.5% never-smokers) and identified 12 novel susceptibility variants, bringing the total number to 28 at 25 independent loci. Transcriptome-wide association analyses together with colocalization studies using a Taiwanese lung expression quantitative trait loci dataset (n = 115) identified novel candidate genes, including FADS1 at 11q12 and ELF5 at 11p13. In a multi-ancestry meta-analysis of East Asian and European studies, four loci were identified at 2p11, 4q32, 16q23, and 18q12. At the same time, most of our findings in East Asian populations showed no evidence of association in European populations. In our studies drawn from East Asian populations, a polygenic risk score based on the 25 loci had a stronger association in never-smokers vs. individuals with a history of smoking (P = 0.0058). These findings provide new insights into the etiology of lung adenocarcinoma in individuals from East Asian populations, which could be important in developing translational applications.

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Forecasting: theory and practice

arXiv

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arXiv 2020年

作者： Petropoulos, Fotios Apiletti, Daniele Assimakopoulos, Vassilios Babai, Mohamed Zied Barrow, Devon K. Taieb, Souhaib Ben Bergmeir, Christoph Bessa, Ricardo J. Bijak, Jakub Boylan, John E. Browell, Jethro Carnevale, Claudio Castle, Jennifer L. Cirillo, Pasquale Clements, Michael P. Cordeiro, Clara Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino de Baets, Shari Dokumentov, Alexander Ellison, Joanne Fiszeder, Piotr Franses, Philip Hans Frazier, David T. Gilliland, Michael Gönül, M. Sinan Goodwin, Paul Grossi, Luigi Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Guidolin, Mariangela Guidolin, Massimo Gunter, Ulrich Guo, Xiaojia Guseo, Renato Harvey, Nigel Hendry, David F. Hollyman, Ross Januschowski, Tim Jeon, Jooyoung Jose, Victor Richmond R. Kang, Yanfei Koehler, Anne B. Kolassa, Stephan Kourentzes, Nikolaos Leva, Sonia Li, Feng Litsiou, Konstantia Makridakis, Spyros Martin, Gael M. Martinez, Andrew B. Meeran, Sheik Modis, Theodore Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos Önkal, Dilek Paccagnini, Alessia Panagiotelis, Anastasios Panapakidis, Ioannis Pavía, Jose M. Pedio, Manuela Pedregal, Diego J. Pinson, Pierre Ramos, Patrícia Rapach, David E. Reade, J. James Rostami-Tabar, Bahman Rubaszek, Michal Sermpinis, Georgios Shang, Han Lin Spiliotis, Evangelos Syntetos, Aris A. Talagala, Priyanga Dilini Talagala, Thiyanga S. Tashman, Len Thomakos, Dimitrios Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Todini, Ezio Arenas, Juan Ramón Trapero Wang, Xiaoqian Winkler, Robert L. Yusupova, Alisa Ziel, Florian School of Management University of Bath United Kingdom Politecnico di Torino Turin Italy Forecasting and Strategy Unit School of Electrical and Computer Engineering National Technical University of Athens Greece Kedge Business School France Department of Management Birmingham Business School University of Birmingham United Kingdom Belgium Faculty of Information Technology Monash University Melbourne Australia INESC TEC – Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering Technology and Science Porto Portugal Department of Social Statistics and Demography University of Southampton United Kingdom Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting Lancaster University Management School Lancaster University United Kingdom School of Mathematics and Statistics University of Glasgow United Kingdom Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering University of Brescia Italy Magdalen College University of Oxford United Kingdom ZHAW School of Management and Law Zurich University of Applied Sciences Switzerland ICMA Centre Henley Business School University of Reading United Kingdom Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia Universidade do Algarve Portugal CEAUL Faculdade de Ciências Universidade de Lisboa Portugal Brazil Department of Business Informatics and Operations Management Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Universiteit Gent Belgium Let’s Forecast Australia Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun Poland Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Rotterdam Netherlands Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics Monash University Melbourne Australia SAS United States Newcastle Business School Northumbria University Newcastle upon Tyne United Kingdom Department of Statistical Sciences University of Padua Italy Darden School of Business University of Virginia United States Finance Department Bocconi University Baffi-CAREFIN Centre Milan Italy Department of Tourism and Service Management MODUL Un

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases. © 2020, CC BY.

关键词： Forecasting

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Atmospheric neutrinos with the first detection units of KM3NeT/ARCA 37

Atmospheric neutrinos with the first detection units of KM3N...

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37th International Cosmic Ray Conference, ICRC 2021

作者： Sinopoulou, Anna Coniglione, Rosa Markou, Christos Muller, Rasa Tzamariudaki, Ekaterini Ageron, M. Aiello, S. Albert, A. Alshamsi, M. AlvesGarre, S. Aly, Z. Ambrosone, A. Ameli, F. Andre, M. Androulakis, G. Anghinolfi, M. Anguita, M. Anton, G. Ardid, M. Ardid, S. Assal, W. Aublin, J. Bagatelas, C. Baret, B. Basegmez du Pree, S. Bendahman, M. Benfenati, F. Berbee, E. van den Berg, A.M. Bertin, V. Beurthey, S. van Beveren, V. Biagi, S. Billault, M. Bissinger, M. Boettcher, M. Bou Cabo, M. Boumaaza, J. Bouta, M. Boutonnet, C. Bouvet, G. Bouwhuis, M. Bozza, C. Brânzaş, H. Bruijn, R. Brunner, J. Bruno, R. Buis, E. Buompane, R. Busto, J. Caiffi, B. Caillat Calvo, D. Campion, S. Capone, A. Carduner, H. Carretero, V. Castaldi, P. Celli, S. Cereseto, R. Chabab Champion, C. Chau, N. Chen, A. Cherubini, S. Chiarella, V. Chiarusi, T. Circella, M. Cocimano, R. Coelho, J.A.B. Coleiro, A. Colomer Molla, M. Colonges, S. Coniglione, R. Cosquer, A. Coyle, P. Cresta, M. Creusot, A. Cruz, A. Cuttone, G. D’Amico, A. Dallier, R. De Martino, B. De Palma, M. Di Palma, I. Díaz, A.F. Diego-Tortosa, D. Distefano, C. Domi, A. Donzaud, C. Dornic, D. Dörr, M. Drouhin, D. Eberl, T. Eddyamoui, A. van Eeden, T. van Eijk, D. El Bojaddaini, I. Eljarrari, H. Elsaesser, D. Enzenhöfer, A. Espinosa, V. Fermani, P. Ferrara, G. Filipović, M.D. Filippini, F. Fransen, J. Fusco, L.A. Gajanana, D. Gal, T. García Méndez, J. Garcia Soto, A. Garçon, E. Garufi, F. Gatius, C. Geißelbrecht, N. Gialanella, L. Giorgio, E. Gozzini, S.R. Gracia, R. Graf, K. Grella, G. Guderian, D. Guidi, C. Guillon, B. Gutiérrez, M. Haefner, J. Hallmann, S. Hamdaoui, H. van Haren, H. Heijboer, A. Hekalo, A. Hennig, L. Henry, S. Hernández-Rey, J.J. Hofestädt, J. Huang, F. Idrissi Ibnsalih, W. Ilioni, A. Illuminati, G. James, C.W. Janezashvili, D. Jansweijer, P. de Jong, M. de Jong, P. Jung, B.J. Kadler, M. Kalaczyński, P. Kalekin, O. Katz, U.F. Kayzel, F. Keller, P. KhanChowdhury, N.R. NCSR "Demokritos" Institute of Nuclear and Particle Physics Ag. Paraskevi Attikis Athens15310 Greece National Technical University of Athens School of Applied Mathematical and Physical Sciences Zografou Campus 9 Iroon Polytechniou str Zografou Athens15780 Greece INFN Laboratori Nazionali del Sud Via S. Sofia 62 Catania95123 Italy Nikhef Institute for Subatomic Physics Science Park 105 Amsterdam1098 XG Netherlands Aix Marseille Univ CNRS IN2P3 CPPM Marseille France INFN Sezione di Catania Via Santa Sofia 64 Catania95123 Italy Université de Strasbourg CNRS IPHC UMR 7178 StrasbourgF-67000 France Université de Paris CNRS Astroparticule et Cosmologie ParisF-75013 France IFIC - Instituto de Física Corpuscular CSIC - Universitat de València c/Catedrático José Beltrán 2 Paterna Valencia46980 Spain INFN Sezione di Napoli Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo Via Cintia ed. G Napoli80126 Italy Università di Napoli "Federico II" Dip. Scienze Fisiche "E. Pancini" Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo Via Cintia ed. G Napoli80126 Italy INFN Sezione di Roma Piazzale Aldo Moro 2 Roma00185 Italy Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya Laboratori d’Aplicacions Bioacústiques Centre Tecnològic de Vilanova i la Geltrú Avda. Rambla Exposició s/n Vilanova i la Geltrú08800 Spain NCSR Demokritos Institute of Nuclear and Particle Physics Ag. Paraskevi Attikis Athens15310 Greece INFN Sezione di Genova Via Dodecaneso 33 Genova16146 Italy University of Granada Dept. of Computer Architecture and Technology CITIC Granada18071 Spain Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg Erlangen Centre for Astroparticle Physics Erwin-Rommel-Straße 1 Erlangen91058 Germany Universitat Politècnica de València Instituto de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada de las Zonas Costeras C/Paranimf 1 Gandia46730 Spain Nikhef National Institute for Subatomic Physics PO Box 41882 Amsterdam1009 DB Netherlands University Mohammed V in Rabat Faculty o

The KM3NeT Collaboration is constructing two deep-sea Cherenkov detectors in the Mediterranean Sea, aiming at neutrino oscillation measurements with the ORCA array, while the ARCA array aims at neutrino astronomy in the TeV range. In April 2021, 5 additional detection units were deployed in the ARCA site. The KM3NeT/ARCA instrumented volume is currently similar to the one of the ANTARES neutrino telescope. In this contribution, an analysis of the data obtained with the detector before April 2021 is presented as well as the analysis of the very first data from the new KM3NeT/ARCA configuration. The performance is demonstrated using atmospheric muons and the first atmospheric neutrinos are shown. © Copyright owned by the author(s) under the terms of the Creative Commons.

关键词： Neutrons

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LifeTime and improving European healthcare through cell-based interceptive medicine (vol 587, pg 377, 2020)

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NATURE 2021年第7852期592卷 E8-E8页

作者： Rajewsky, Nikolaus Almouzni, Genevieve Gorski, Stanislaw A. Aerts, Stein Amit, Ido Bertero, Michela G. Bock, Christoph Bredenoord, Annelien L. Cavalli, Giacomo Chiocca, Susanna Clevers, Hans De Strooper, Bart Eggert, Angelika Ellenberg, Jan Fernandez, Xose M. Figlerowicz, Marek Gasser, Susan M. Hubner, Norbert Kjems, Jorgen Knoblich, Jurgen A. Krabbe, Grietje Lichter, Peter Linnarsson, Sten Marine, Jean-Christophe Marioni, John C. Marti-Renom, Marc A. Netea, Mihai G. Nickel, Dorthe Nollmann, Marcelo Novak, Halina R. Parkinson, Helen Piccolo, Stefano Pinheiro, Ines Pombo, Ana Popp, Christian Reik, Wolf Roman-Roman, Sergio Rosenstiel, Philip Schultze, Joachim L. Stegle, Oliver Tanay, Amos Testa, Giuseppe Thanos, Dimitris Theis, Fabian J. Torres-Padilla, Maria-Elena Valencia, Alfonso Vallot, Celine van Oudenaarden, Alexander Vidal, Marie Voet, Thierry Berlin Institute for Medical Systems Biology Max Delbrück Center for Molecular Medicine in the Helmholtz Association Berlin Germany Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin Germany Berlin Institute of Health (BIH) Berlin Germany German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK) Partner Site Berlin Berlin Germany Institute for Biology Humboldt University of Berlin Berlin Germany Cardiovascular and Metabolic Sciences Max Delbrück Center for Molecular Medicine in the Helmholtz Association (MDC) Berlin Germany Department of Pediatric Oncology/Hematology Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin Berlin Germany Institut Curie CNRS PSL Research University Sorbonne Université Nuclear Dynamics Unit Equipe Labellisée Ligue contre le cancer Paris France VIB Center for Brain and Disease Research Leuven Belgium Department of Human Genetics KU Leuven Leuven Belgium Department of Neurosciences KU Leuven Leuven Belgium UK Dementia Research Institute at UCL University College London London UK Wellcome Sanger Institute Wellcome Genome Campus Cambridge UK Department of Immunology Weizmann Institute of Science Rehovot Israel Centre for Genomic Regulation (CRG) Barcelona Institute of Science and Technology Barcelona Spain CNAG-CRG Centre for Genomic Regulation Barcelona Institute of Science and Technology Barcelona Spain Universitat Pompeu Fabra Barcelona Spain ICREA Barcelona Spain CeMM Research Center for Molecular Medicine of the Austrian Academy of Sciences Vienna Austria Department of Laboratory Medicine Medical University of Vienna Vienna Austria Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Rare and Undiagnosed Diseases Vienna Austria Department of Medical Humanities Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care University Medical Center Utrecht Utrecht The Netherlands Institute of Human Genetics UMR 9002 CNRS and University of Montpellier Montpellier France Department of Experimental Oncology IEO European Institute of Oncology IRCCS Milan Italy Department of Oncology and Hemato

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Correction: White matter diffusion estimates in obsessive-compulsive disorder across 1653 individuals: machine learning findings from the ENIGMA OCD Working Group

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Molecular psychiatry 2024年第4期29卷 1216页

作者： Bo-Gyeom Kim Gakyung Kim Yoshinari Abe Pino Alonso Stephanie Ameis Alan Anticevic Paul D Arnold Srinivas Balachander Nerisa Banaj Nuria Bargalló Marcelo C Batistuzzo Francesco Benedetti Sara Bertolín Jan Carl Beucke Irene Bollettini Silvia Brem Brian P Brennan Jan K Buitelaar Rosa Calvo Miguel Castelo-Branco Yuqi Cheng Ritu Bhusal Chhatkuli Valentina Ciullo Ana Coelho Beatriz Couto Sara Dallaspezia Benjamin A Ely Sónia Ferreira Martine Fontaine Jean-Paul Fouche Rachael Grazioplene Patricia Gruner Kristen Hagen Bjarne Hansen Gregory L Hanna Yoshiyuki Hirano Marcelo Q Höxter Morgan Hough Hao Hu Chaim Huyser Toshikazu Ikuta Neda Jahanshad Anthony James Fern Jaspers-Fayer Selina Kasprzak Norbert Kathmann Christian Kaufmann Minah Kim Kathrin Koch Gerd Kvale Jun Soo Kwon Luisa Lazaro Junhee Lee Christine Lochner Jin Lu Daniela Rodriguez Manrique Ignacio Martínez-Zalacaín Yoshitada Masuda Koji Matsumoto Maria Paula Maziero Jose M Menchón Luciano Minuzzi Pedro Silva Moreira Pedro Morgado Janardhanan C Narayanaswamy Jin Narumoto Ana E Ortiz Junko Ota Jose C Pariente Chris Perriello Maria Picó-Pérez Christopher Pittenger Sara Poletti Eva Real Y C Janardhan Reddy Daan van Rooij Yuki Sakai João Ricardo Sato Cinto Segalas Roseli G Shavitt Zonglin Shen Eiji Shimizu Venkataram Shivakumar Noam Soreni Carles Soriano-Mas Nuno Sousa Mafalda Machado Sousa Gianfranco Spalletta Emily R Stern S Evelyn Stewart Philip R Szeszko Rajat Thomas Sophia I Thomopoulos Daniela Vecchio Ganesan Venkatasubramanian Chris Vriend Susanne Walitza Zhen Wang Anri Watanabe Lidewij Wolters Jian Xu Kei Yamada Je-Yeon Yun Mojtaba Zarei Qing Zhao Xi Zhu Paul M Thompson Willem B Bruin Guido A van Wingen Federica Piras Fabrizio Piras Dan J Stein Odile A van den Heuvel Helen Blair Simpson Rachel Marsh Jiook Cha Department of Psychology College of Social Sciences Seoul National University Seoul Republic of Korea. Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences College of Natural Sciences Seoul National University Seoul Republic of Korea. Graduate School of Medical Science Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine Department of Psychiatry Kyoto City Japan. Bellvitge Biomedical Research Insitute-IDIBELL Bellvitge University Hospital Barcelona Spain. CIBER of Mental Health (CIBERSAM) Carlos III Health Institute Madrid Spain. Department of Clinical Sciences University of Barcelona Barcelona Spain. The Margaret and Wallace McCain Centre for Child Youth & Family Mental Health and Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute Centre for Addiction and Mental Health Toronto ON Canada. Department of Psychiatry University of Toronto Toronto ON Canada. Program in Neurosciences and Mental Health The Hospital for Sick Children Toronto ON Canada. Department of Psychiatry Yale University School of Medicine New Haven CT 06510 USA. The Mathison Centre for Mental Health Research & Education Hotchkiss Brain Institute Cumming School of Medicine University of Calgary Calgary AB Canada. Departments of Psychiatry and Medical Genetics Cumming School of Medicine University of Calgary Calgary AB Canada. OCD clinic Department of Psychiatry National Institute of Mental Health And Neurosciences (NIMHANS) Bangalore India. Laboratory of Neuropsychiatry Department of Clinical and Neuroscience and Neurorehabilitation IRCCS Santa Lucia Foundation Rome Italy. Center of Image Diagnostic Hospital Clínic de Barcelona Barcelona Spain. Magnetic Resonance Image Core Facility Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS) Barcelona Spain. Departamento e Instituto de Psiquiatria do Hospital das Clinicas IPQ HCFMUSP Faculdade de Medicina Universidade de Sao Paulo Sao Paulo SP Brazil. Department of Methods and Techniques in Psychology Pontifical Catholic University São Paulo SP

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The Liver Tumor Segmentation Benchmark (LiTS)

arXiv

引用

arXiv 2019年

作者： Bilic, Patrick Christ, Patrick Li, Hongwei Bran Vorontsov, Eugene Ben-Cohen, Avi Kaissis, Georgios Szeskin, Adi Jacobs, Colin Mamani, Gabriel Efrain Humpire Chartrand, Gabriel Lohöfer, Fabian Holch, Julian Walter Sommer, Wieland Hofmann, Felix Hostettler, Alexandre Lev-Cohain, Naama Drozdzal, Michal Amitai, Michal Marianne Vivanti, Refael Sosna, Jacob Ezhov, Ivan Sekuboyina, Anjany Navarro, Fernando Kofler, Florian Paetzold, Johannes C. Shit, Suprosanna Hu, Xiaobin Lipková, Jana Rempfler, Markus Piraud, Marie Kirschke, Jan Wiestler, Benedikt Zhang, Zhiheng Hülsemeyer, Christian Beetz, Marcel Ettlinger, Florian Antonelli, Michela Bae, Woong Bellver, Míriam Bi, Lei Chen, Hao Chlebus, Grzegorz Dam, Erik B. Dou, Qi Fu, Chi-Wing Georgescu, Bogdan Giró-I-Nieto, Xavier Gruen, Felix Han, Xu Heng, Pheng-Ann Hesser, Jürgen Moltz, Jan Hendrik Igel, Christian Isensee, Fabian Jäger, Paul Jia, Fucang Kaluva, Krishna Chaitanya Khened, Mahendra Kim, Ildoo Kim, Jae-Hun Kim, Sungwoong Kohl, Simon Konopczynski, Tomasz Kori, Avinash Krishnamurthi, Ganapathy Li, Fan Li, Hongchao Li, Junbo Li, Xiaomeng Lowengrub, John Ma, Jun Maier-Hein, Klaus Maninis, Kevis-Kokitsi Meine, Hans Merhof, Dorit Pai, Akshay Perslev, Mathias Petersen, Jens Pont-Tuset, Jordi Qi, Jin Qi, Xiaojuan Rippel, Oliver Roth, Karsten Sarasua, Ignacio Schenk, Andrea Shen, Zengming Torres, Jordi Wachinger, Christian Wang, Chunliang Weninger, Leon Wu, Jianrong Xu, Daguang Yang, Xiaoping Yu, Simon Chun-Ho Yuan, Yading Yue, Miao Zhang, Liping Cardoso, Jorge Bakas, Spyridon Braren, Rickmer Heinemann, Volker Pal, Christopher Tang, An Kadoury, Samuel Soler, Luc van Ginneken, Bram Greenspan, Hayit Joskowicz, Leo Menze, Bjoern Department of Informatics Technical University of Munich Germany Department of Quantitative Biomedicine University of Zurich Switzerland Ecole Polytechnique de Montréal Canada Department of Medical Imaging Radboud University Medical Center Nijmegen Netherlands Department of Biomedical Engineering Tel-Aviv University Israel Germany Pattern Analysis and Learning Group Department of Radiation Oncology Heidelberg University Hospital Heidelberg Germany Philips Research China Philips China Innovation Campus Shanghai China School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences King0s College London London United Kingdom Institute for AI in Medicine Technical University of Munich Germany Department of Computer Science Guangdong University of Foreign Studies China Institute for diagnostic and interventional radiology Klinikum rechts der Isar Technical University of Munich Germany Institute for Diagnostic and Interventional Neuroradiology Klinikum Rechts der Isar Technical University of Munich Germany Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery The Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital Nanjing University Medical School China Department of Computing Imperial College London London United Kingdom Institute for Tissue Engineering and Regenerative Medicine Helmholtz Zentrum München Neuherberg Germany Brigham and Women's Hospital Harvard Medical School United States School of Computer Science and Engineering The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Israel University of Pennsylvania PA United States Pte. Ltd. Singapore Medical Imaging and Reconstruction Lab Department of Engineering Design Indian Institute of Technology Madras India Sensetime Shanghai China Department of Radiology Perelman School of Medicine University of Pennsylvania United States Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine Perelman School of Medicine University of Pennsylvania PA United States Co. Ltd China MontréalQC Canada Department of Radiology Radiation Oncology and Nuclear Medicine University of Montréal

In this work, we report the set-up and results of the Liver Tumor Segmentation Benchmark (LiTS), which was organized in conjunction with the IEEE International Symposium on Biomedical Imaging (ISBI) 2017 and the International Conferences on Medical Image computing and Computer-Assisted Intervention (MICCAI) 2017 and 2018. The image dataset is diverse and contains primary and secondary tumors with varied sizes and appearances with various lesion-to-background levels (hyper-/hypo-dense), created in collaboration with seven hospitals and research institutions. Seventy-five submitted liver and liver tumor segmentation algorithms were trained on a set of 131 computed tomography (CT) volumes and were tested on 70 unseen test images acquired from different patients. We found that not a single algorithm performed best for both liver and liver tumors in the three events. The best liver segmentation algorithm achieved a Dice score of 0.963, whereas, for tumor segmentation, the best algorithms achieved Dices scores of 0.674 (ISBI 2017), 0.702 (MICCAI 2017), and 0.739 (MICCAI 2018). Retrospectively, we performed additional analysis on liver tumor detection and revealed that not all top-performing segmentation algorithms worked well for tumor detection. The best liver tumor detection method achieved a lesion-wise recall of 0.458 (ISBI 2017), 0.515 (MICCAI 2017), and 0.554 (MICCAI 2018), indicating the need for further research. LiTS remains an active benchmark and resource for research, e.g., contributing the liver-related segmentation tasks in http://***/. In addition, both data and online evaluation are accessible via ***. © 2019, CC BY-NC-ND.

关键词： Deep learning

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Ergodicity-breaking reveals time optimal economic behavior in humans

arXiv

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arXiv 2019年

作者： Meder, David Rabe, Finn Morville, Tobias Madsen, Kristoffer H. Koudahl, Magnus T. Dolan, Ray J. Siebner, Hartwig R. Hulme, Oliver J. Danish Research Centre for Magnetic Resonance Centre for Functional and Diagnostic Imaging and Research Copenhagen University Hospital Hvidovre Kettegard Allé 30 Hvidovre2650 Denmark Neural Control of Movement Lab ETH Zurich Winterthurerstrasse 190 Building Y36 Zurich8057 Switzerland Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science Technical University of Denmark Kongens Lyngby2800 Denmark Department of Electrical Engineering Eindhoven University of Technology Eindhoven6500 MB Netherlands Max Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry and Ageing Research 10-12 Russell Square LondonWC1B5EH United Kingdom Department of Neurology Copenhagen University Hospital Bispebjerg Bispebjerg Bakke 23 Copenhagen2400 Denmark Institute for Clinical Medicine Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences University of Copenhagen Blegdamsvej 9 Copenhagen2100 Denmark

Ergodicity describes an equivalence between the expectation value and the time average of observables. Applied to human behaviour, ergodic theory reveals how individuals should tolerate risk in different environments. To optimise wealth over time, agents should adapt their utility function according to the dynamical setting they face. Linear utility is optimal for additive dynamics, whereas logarithmic utility is optimal for multiplicative dynamics. Whether humans approximate time optimal behavior across different dynamics is unknown. Here we compare the effects of additive versus multiplicative gamble dynamics on risky choice. We show that utility functions are modulated by gamble dynamics in ways not explained by prevailing economic theory. Instead, as predicted by time optimality, risk aversion increases under multiplicative dynamics, distributing close to the values that maximise the time average growth of wealth. We suggest that our findings motivate a need for explicitly grounding theories of decision-making on ergodic considerations. Copyright © 2019, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Dynamics

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