The Theta model created a lot of interest in academic circles due to its surprising performance in the M3-competition, the biggest ever time series forecasting competition. As a result in the subsequent years it becam...
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The Theta model created a lot of interest in academic circles due to its surprising performance in the M3-competition, the biggest ever time series forecasting competition. As a result in the subsequent years it becam...
详细信息
The Theta model created a lot of interest in academic circles due to its surprising performance in the M3-competition, the biggest ever time series forecasting competition. As a result in the subsequent years it became a benchmark in any empirical forecasting exercise and an essential tool for efficient Supply Chain Management ad planning as it provides very accurate point forecasts. The present study focuses on if the Theta model is a special case of Simple Exponential Smoothing with drift(SES-d). The Theta model outperforms SES-d in the Quarterly-M3 and Other-M3 subsets by 0.30% and 0.36%.
This article empirically investigates the extension of the use of an aggregation-disaggregation forecasting approach for intermittent demand (ADIDA) to fast-moving demand data, addressing the need of supply chain mana...
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This article empirically investigates the extension of the use of an aggregation-disaggregation forecasting approach for intermittent demand (ADIDA) to fast-moving demand data, addressing the need of supply chain managers for accurate forecasts. After a brief introduction to the framework and its background, an experiment is set up to examine its performance on data from the M3-Competition. The relevant forecasting methodology and in-sample optimization techniques are described in detail, as well as the core experimental structure and real data. Empirical results of forecasting accuracy performance are presented and discussed, placing further emphasis on the managerial implications of the framework’s being a simple, cost-efficient, and universally implementable forecasting method self-improving mechanism. Finally, all conclusions are summarized and guidelines for prospective research are proposed.
The current paper is an expansion of the paper ‘Theta Model Forecasts Real Estate Values’, presented at the European Real Estate Society (ERES) Conference, 2006. In the former paper, the Theta method was compared wi...
Accurate forecasts of tourism demand are prerequisites in the decision making process in many organizations in the private and public sectors. Any information concerning the future evolution of tourism flows is of gre...
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Accurate forecasts of tourism demand are prerequisites in the decision making process in many organizations in the private and public sectors. Any information concerning the future evolution of tourism flows is of great importance to hoteliers, tour operators and other industries concerned with tourism, services or transportation. In the last few decades international tourism demand has attracted substantial academic interest, resulting in a wide range of successful forecasting approaches. Much attention has been paid to econometric models that use regression techniques to estimate the underlying relationship between tourism demand and its determinants;unfortunately, empirical studies suggest that these models usually fail to outperform simple time series models. The current study focuses on an alternative approach, the Tourism Technical Analysis System (TTAS), incorporating the use of technical analysis techniques and building on the similarities between stock and tourism markets. The absolute and directional accuracy of TTAS is evaluated in relation to a range of time series and econometric methods for forecasting international tourism demand, using as a benchmark well-known published research.
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