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Beyond the beaten paths of forecasting call center arrivals: on the use of dynamic harmonic regression with predictor variables

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Journal of Business Economics 2022年第4期92卷 675-706页

作者： Rausch, Theresa Maria Albrecht, Tobias Baier, Daniel University of Bayreuth Universitätsstraße 30 Bayreuth 95447 Germany FIM Research Center University of Bayreuth and Project Group Business & Information Systems Engineering of the Fraunhofer FIT Bayreuth Germany

Modern call centers require precise forecasts of call and e-mail arrivals to optimize staffing decisions and to ensure high customer satisfaction through short waiting times and the availability of qualified agents. In the dynamic environment of multi-channel customer contact, organizational decision-makers often rely on robust but simplistic forecasting methods. Although forecasting literature indicates that incorporating additional information into time series predictions adds value by improving model performance, extant research in the call center domain barely considers the potential of sophisticated multivariate models. Hence, with an extended dynamic harmonic regression (DHR) approach, this study proposes a new reliable method for call center arrivals’ forecasting that is able to capture the dynamics of a time series and to include contextual information in form of predictor variables. The study evaluates the predictive potential of the approach on the call and e-mail arrival series of a leading German online retailer comprising 174 weeks of data. The analysis involves time series cross-validation with an expanding rolling window over 52 weeks and comprises established time series as well as machine learning models as benchmarks. The multivariate DHR model outperforms the compared models with regard to forecast accuracy for a broad spectrum of lead times. This study further gives contextual insights into the selection and optimal implementation of marketing-relevant predictor variables such as catalog releases, mail as well as postal reminders, or billing cycles. © 2021, The Author(s).

关键词： Call center arrivals Customer relationship management Dynamic harmonic regression Forecasting Machine learning Time series analysis

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Why do business processes deviate? Results from a Delphi study

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Business Research 2019年第2期12卷 425-453页

作者： König, Ulrich Matthias Linhart, Alexander Röglinger, Maximilian Research Center Finance and Information Management Project Group Business and Information Systems Engineering of the Fraunhofer FIT University of Augsburg Universitätsstraße12 Augsburg 86159 Germany Research Center Finance and Information Management University of Augsburg Universitätsstraße12 Augsburg 86159 Germany Research Center Finance and Information Management Project Group Business and Information Systems Engineering of the Fraunhofer FIT University of Bayreuth Wittelsbacherring 10 Bayreuth 95444 Germany

Despite substantial investments in business process management (BPM), every organization experiences deviant processes, i.e., processes that show different behavior than intended. Thus, process deviance is an essential topic of BPM research and practice. Today, research on process deviance is mainly driven from a computer science perspective. IT-based methods and tools (e.g., deviance mining and prediction or compliance checking) detect process deviance by comparing log data from past process instances with normative process models or execution traces of currently running instances. However, requiring process models and event logs as input, existing approaches are expensive and limited to processes executed in automated workflow environments. Further, they can only detect process deviance, not explain why it occurs. Thus, knowledge about reasons for process deviance is immature. What is missing is a systematic exploration of reasons for process deviance. Against this backdrop, we compiled and structured reasons for process deviance based on a rating-type Delphi study with more than 30 experts from industry and academia. Thereby, we chose a process manager’s perspective as analytical lens, as process managers are familiar with and responsible for business processes end-to-end. We also analyzed the reasons’ importance for causing deviance in routine and nonroutine processes, two process types that capture the nature of processes in terms of variation and variety. Our results contribute to the descriptive knowledge on process deviance and serve as foundation for prescriptive research. © 2018, The Author(s).

关键词： Business process management Delphi study Process deviance

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(How) can blockchain contribute to the management of systemic risks in global supply networks? 1

(How) can blockchain contribute to the management of systemi...

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1st Workshop on Systemic Risks in Global Networks, SysRisk 2019

作者： Fridgen, Gilbert Körner, Marc-Fabian Sedlmeir, Johannes Weibelzahl, Martin FIM Research Center University of Bayreuth Wittelsbacherring 10 Bayreuth Germany Project Group Business and Information Systems Engineering of the Fraunhofer FIT Wittelsbacherring 10 Bayreuth Germany

Even though globalization has led to larger, faster, and more efficient supply chains, at the same time the new worldwide interconnection has also resulted in major challenges with respect to hidden systemic risks. In particular, there is a lack of a holistic perspective on the entire supply network. This missing global view prohibits the anamnesis and management of underlying risks. Against this backdrop, in this paper we discuss the potential contributions of Blockchain technology to systemic risk management in global supply chains and networks. Given the increasing number of recent initiatives of businesses in the context of Blockchain, we argue that Blockchain technology can lower the hurdle for the use of secure multiparty computation. Ultimately, it may be possible to implement a corresponding monitoring mechanism for systemic risks without (i) the need of a central authority and (ii) revealing competition relevant, confidential information to other supply network participants. © 2019 CEUR-WS. All rights reserved.

关键词： Blockchain

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The Human Factor in Blockchain Ecosystems: A Sociotechnical Framework 17

The Human Factor in Blockchain Ecosystems: A Sociotechnical ...

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17th International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik, WI 2022

作者： Brennecke, Martin Guggenberger, Tobias Sachs, Alexander Schellinger, Benjamin FIM Research Center Project Group Business & Information Systems Engineering of the Fraunhofer FIT University of Bayreuth Bayreuth Germany Nova School of Business & Economics Lisbon Portugal

As blockchain development continues at an ever-increasing pace, an increasing number of individual actors and organizations throughout entire economies get into contact with the technology. Furthermore, the growing collaboration of companies, customers, suppliers, and other actors is evolving into a multilateral network between the parties engaged with the technology. Therefore, to understand blockchain-based business models and innovations, it is necessary to understand human interactions within blockchain ecosystems. Consequently, this paper offers new insights concerning the role of human actors within blockchain ecosystems. For this purpose, the structure within and around the Ethereum-blockchain is analyzed using existing literature on the Ethereum ecosystem and Sociotechnical systems. The analysis results are then placed in their context and summarized in a framework for comparable ecosystems. © 2022 17th International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik, WI 2022. All rights reserved.

关键词： Ecosystems

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Pushing the frontiers of service research - A taxonomy of proactive services

Pushing the frontiers of service research - A taxonomy of pr...

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2020 International Conference on Information systems - Making Digital Inclusive: Blending the Local and the Global, ICIS 2020

作者： Rau, Daniel Röglinger, Maximilian Perlitt, Luise-Henriette Wenninger, Annette FIM Research Center University of Augsburg Augsburg Germany Project Group Business and Information Systems Engineering Fraunhofer FIT Bayreuth Germany FIM Research Center University of Bayreuth Bayreuth Germany

ISBN: (纸本)9781733632553

Rapid advancements in digital technologies and data analysis led to a new service type. With their push-rationale, proactive services (PAS) are pushing the frontiers of traditional and even digital or smart services. Such PAS anticipate consumer needs and address them proactively. For instance, a smart fridge replenishes groceries in line with the consumer's preferences, based on anticipated demand, and without the consumer's intervention. In this paper, we contribute to a better understanding of the PAS phenomenon. Therefore, we propose a literature-backed and empirically validated multilayer taxonomy of PAS along the layers consumer, data, and interaction. Further, we compile a list of 45 PAS examples, demonstrate our taxonomy with three illustrative scenarios, and evaluate their understandability and applicability in seven interviews with domain and method experts. Based on gained insights on this rapidly emerging and important phenomenon, we highlight implications for both researchers and practitioners, and suggest future research directions. © ICIS 2020. All rights reserved.

关键词： Taxonomies

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Semi-automatic establishment and maintenance of valid traceability in automotive development processes

Semi-automatic establishment and maintenance of valid tracea...

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2nd International Workshop on software engineering for Embedded systems, SEES 2012

作者： Fockel, Markus Holtmann, Jörg Meyer, Jan Project Group Mechatronic Systems Design Fraunhofer IPT Paderborn Germany Software Engineering Group Heinz Nixdorf Institute University of Paderborn Paderborn Germany Hella KGaA Hueck and Co. Lippstadt Germany

ISBN: (纸本)9781467318532

The functionality realized by software in modern cars is increasing and as a result the development artifacts of automotive systems are getting more complex. The existence of traceability along these artifacts is essential, since it allows to monitor the product development from the initial requirements to the final code. However, traceability is established and maintained mostly manually, which is time-consuming and error-prone. A further crucial problem is the assurance of the validity of the trace links, that is, the linked elements are indeed related to each other. In this paper we present a semiautomatic approach to create, check, and update trace links between artifacts along an automotive development process. © 2012 IEEE.

关键词： Trace elements

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Juggling the paradoxes - Governance mechanisms in Bimodal IT organizations 27

Juggling the paradoxes - Governance mechanisms in Bimodal IT...

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27th European Conference on Information systems: Information systems for a Sharing Society, ECIS 2019

作者： Jöhnk, Jan Oesterle, Severin Winkler, Till J. Nørbjerg, Jacob Urbach, Nils Project Group Business and Information Systems Engineering of the Fraunhofer FIT University of Bayreuth Bayreuth Germany FIM Research Center University of Bayreuth Germany Copenhagen Business School Denmark

ISBN: (纸本)9781733632508

The fundamental changes associated with digitalization demand businesses and public enterprises to balance exploitative and explorative capabilities in their internal IT function. One approach to balance these paradoxical demands is the adoption of twofold organizational structures often referred to as bimodal IT. While the IS literature has made recent advances in the description and analysis of bimodal organization structures, we still lack a deeper understanding of the inner workings within bimodal IT organizations and the potential tensions between traditional and agile IT. To address this research gap, we adopt IT governance mechanisms as an analytical framework to study two bimodal IT organization cases, one at a law enforcement agency and the other at an automotive company. We analyze data collected through fourteen semi-structured interviews using grounded theory techniques. We first identify challenges associated with the implementation of and the coordination within organization's bimodal IT organizations. We then identify the structural, procedural, and relational governance mechanisms used within these organizations and elucidate how they relate to the categories of challenges. Finally, we identify and describe five novel governance paradoxes of bimodal IT organizations that emerged as core concepts from this research. Theoretical contributions and practical implications are discussed. © 27th European Conference on Information systems - Information systems for a Sharing Society, ECIS 2019. All rights reserved.

关键词： Information use

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Electricity Markets in a Time of Change: A Call to Arms for Business Research

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Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research 2022年第1期74卷 77-102页

作者： Bichler, Martin Buhl, Hans Ulrich Knörr, Johannes Maldonado, Felipe Schott, Paul Waldherr, Stefan Weibelzahl, Martin Department of Informatics Technical University of Munich Boltzmannstr. 3 Garching 85748 Germany FIM Research Center Project Group Business & Information Systems Engineering of the Fraunhofer FIT Alter Postweg 101 Augsburg 86159 Germany FIM Research Center University of Bayreuth Project Group Business & Information Systems Engineering of the Fraunhofer FIT Wittelsbacherring 10 Bayreuth 95444 Germany School of Business and Economics Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam De Boelelaan 1105 Amsterdam 1081 HV Netherlands

Europe’s clean energy transition is imperative to combat climate change and represents an economic opportunity to become independent of fossil fuels. As such, the energy transition has become one of the most important, but also one of the most challenging economic and societal projects today. Electricity systems of the past were characterized by price-inelastic demand and only a small number of large electricity generators. The transition towards intermittent renewable energy sources changes this very paradigm. Future electricity systems will consist of many thousands of electricity generators and consumers that actively participate in markets, offering flexibility to balance variable electricity supply in markets with a high spatial and temporal resolution. These structural changes have ample consequences for market operators, generators, industrial consumers as well as prosumers. While a large body of the literature is devoted to the energy transition in engineering and the natural sciences, it has received relatively little attention in the recent business research literature, even though many of the central challenges for a successful energy transition are at the core of business research. Therefore, we provide an up-to-date overview of key questions in electricity market design and discuss how changes in electricity markets lead to new research challenges in business research disciplines such as accounting, business & information systems engineering, finance, marketing, operations management, operations research, and risk management. © 2021, The Author(s).

关键词： Demand response Electricity market design Energy transition Renewable energy sources

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Flexibility in ecosystem architectures 14

Flexibility in ecosystem architectures

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8th European Conference on software Architecture Workshops, ECSAW 2014

作者： Da Silva Amorim, Simone McGregor, John D. De Almeida, Eduardo Santana Von Flach G. Chavez, Christina Federal Institute of Education Science and Technology of Bahia Salvador BA 40110 Brazil Strategic Software Engineering Research Group Clemson University Clemson SC 29634 United States Federal University of Bahia Fraunhofer Project Center for Software and Systems Engineering Salvador BA 40170 Brazil Federal University of Bahia Salvador BA 40170 Brazil

ISBN: (纸本)9781450327787

Quality attributes are important to creating, understanding, and evaluating software architectures. The architectural attributes and challenges for ecosystem architectures are different from one-off systems. The study of those aspects that influence quality attributes in this new environment can help to understand these architectures. In previous work, we hypothesized that the architecture for an ecosystem should be extensible, scalable, and flexible and reported initial investigations into extensibility and scalability. In this paper, we report on our investigation into flexibility. We analyze various features that impact how to design flexible architectures. We highlight that flexibility for ecosystems is not only a technical issue, but a business issue as well. We classified features that affect flexibility into business and technical dimensions. We adapted a software system metric for flexibility to measure the flexibility of an ecosystem's architecture. © 2014 ACM.

关键词： Ecosystems

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Life is a Journey in Smart and Sustainable Districts 17

Life is a Journey in Smart and Sustainable Districts

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17th International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik, WI 2022

作者： Graf-Drasch, Valerie Meindl, Oliver Voucko-Glockner, Hannes Digital Management University of Hohenheim Stuttgart Germany Project Group Business & Information Systems Engineering of the Fraunhofer FIT Augsburg Germany FIM Research Center University of Augsburg Augsburg Germany

Worldwide, cities grapple with the expectation of putting the brakes on climate change. Before acting, smart districts often serve as a testing bed for strategies towards carbon-neutrality. If effective, scale-up agendas at city-level are formulated. Smart districts are touted for their sustainability lever, as their core rationale is encouraging residents to use ‘smart energy technologies’ which increase efficiency or integrate renewable energy sources. The primary focus of these districts is on technical implementations of available sustainability services instead of orienting their service-portfolio around citizens. The result is a mismatch of supply and demand of sustainability-inducing services. We take in a customer journey perspective when searching for literature and conducting qualitative interviews. Results reveal a framework for mapping service touchpoints into citizen journeys. The framework is meant to benefit district planners to tailor their service selection to meet their citizens’ needs and exploit the district’s sustainability potential at the citizen interface. © 2022 17th International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik, WI 2022. All rights reserved.

关键词： Sustainable development

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