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Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study

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The Lancet HIV 2021年第6期8卷 e363-e375页

作者： Sartorius, Benn VanderHeide, John D. Yang, Mingyou Goosmann, Erik A. Hon, Julia Haeuser, Emily Cork, Michael A. Perkins, Samantha Jahagirdar, Deepa Schaeffer, Lauren E. Serfes, Audrey L. LeGrand, Kate E. Abbastabar, Hedayat Abebo, Zeleke Hailemariam Abosetugn, Akine Eshete Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou Adebayo, Oladimeji M. Adegbosin, Adeyinka Emmanuel Adekanmbi, Victor Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Adeyinka, Daniel Adedayo Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Akalu, Yonas Akinyemi, Oluwaseun Oladapo Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Aklilu, Addis Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet Alahdab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Noore Alamneh, Alehegn Aderaw Alanzi, Turki M. Alemu, Biresaw Wassihun Alhassan, Robert Kaba Ali, Tilahun Alipour, Vahid Amini, Saeed Ancuceanu, Robert Ansari, Fereshteh Anteneh, Zelalem Alamrew Anvari, Davood Anwer, Razique Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw Arabloo, Jalal Asemahagn, Mulusew A. Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad Asmare, Wondwossen Niguse Atnafu, Desta Debalkie Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atreya, Alok Ausloos, Marcel Awedew, Atalel Fentahun Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayanore, Martin Amogre Aynalem, Yared Asmare Ayza, Muluken Altaye Azari, Samad Azene, Zelalem Nigussie Babar, Zaheer-Ud-Din Baig, Atif Amin Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar Banach, Maciej Bärnighausen, Till Winfried Basu, Sanjay Bayati, Mohsen Bedi, Neeraj Bekuma, Tariku Tesfaye Bezabhe, Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. Bibi, Sadia Bikbov, Boris Birhan, Tsegaye Adane Bitew, Zebenay Workneh Bockarie, Moses John Boloor, Archith Brady, Oliver J. Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Burugina Nagaraja, Sharath Butt, Zahid A. Cárdenas, Rosario Carvalho, Felix Charan, Jaykaran Chatterjee, Souranshu Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chu, Dinh-Toi Cook, Aubrey J. Cormier, Natalie Maria Cowden, Richard G. Culquichicon, Carlos Dagnew, Baye Dahlawi, Saad M.A. D Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health Nuffield Department of Medicine University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Malaria Atlas Project University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom The George Institute for Global Health University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Global Health University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Insights Program Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Seattle WA United States Global Programs Medical Teams International Seattle WA United States Department of Pediatric Newborn Medicine Brigham and Women's Hospital Boston MA United States Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Multiple Sclerosis Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Pediatric Chronic Kidney Disease Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Environmental Health Engineering Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Metabolomics and Genomics Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Public Health Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia College of Medicine and Health Science Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia Department of Nursing Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia Department of Biomedical Sciences Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia Department of Public Health Debre Berhan University Debre Brehan

Background: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique,

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Abstracts from the 3rd International Genomic Medicine Conference (3rd IGMC 2015) : Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 30 November - 3 December 2015

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BMC genomics 2016年第6期17 Suppl 6卷 487页

作者： Jerry W. Shay Noriko Homma Ruyun Zhou Muhammad Imran Naseer Adeel G. Chaudhary Mohammed Al-Qahtani Nobutaka Hirokawa Maryam Goudarzi Albert J. Fornace Saleh Baeesa Deema Hussain Mohammed Bangash Fahad Alghamdi Hans-Juergen Schulten Angel Carracedo Ishaq Khan Hanadi Qashqari Nawal Madkhali Mohamad Saka Kulvinder S. Saini Awatif Jamal Jaudah Al-Maghrabi Adel Abuzenadah Adeel Chaudhary Mohammed Al Qahtani Ghazi Damanhouri Heba Alkhatabi Anne Goodeve Laura Crookes Nikolas Niksic Nicholas Beauchamp Adel M. Abuzenadah Jim Vaught Bruce Budowle Mourad Assidi Abdelbaset Buhmeida Leena Merdad Sudhir Kumar Sayaka Miura Karen Gomez Mahmood Rasool Ahmed Rebai Sajjad Karim Hend F. Nour Eldin Heba Abusamra Elham M. Alhathli Nada Salem Mohammed H. Al-Qahtani Hossam Faheem Ashok Agarwa Eberhard Nieschlag Joachim Wistuba Oliver S. Damm Mohd A. Beg Taha A. Abdel-Meguid Hisham A. Mosli Osama S. Bajouh Serdar Coskun Muhammad Abu-Elmagd Ashraf Dallol Sahar Hakamy Wejdan Al-Qahtani Asia Al-Harbi Shireen Hussain Burak Ozkosem Rick DuBois Safia S. Messaoudi Maryam T. Dandana Touhami Mahjoub Wassim Y. Almawi S. Abdalla M. Nabil Al-Aama Asmaa Elzawahry Tsuyoshi Takahashi Sachiyo Mimaki Eisaku Furukawa Rie Nakatsuka Isao Kurosaka Takahiko Nishigaki Hiromi Nakamura Satoshi Serada Tetsuji Naka Seiichi Hirota Tatsuhiro Shibata Katsuya Tsuchihara Toshirou Nishida Mamoru Kato Sajid Mehmood Naeem Mahmood Ashraf Awais Asif Muhammad Bilal Malik Siddique Mehmood Aadil Hussain Qazi Mohammad Sajid Jamal Mughees Uddin Siddiqui Mohammad A. Alzohairy Mohammad A. Al Karaawi Taoufik Nedjadi Heba Al-Khattabi Adel Al-Ammari Ahmed Al-Sayyad Hédia Zitouni Nozha Raguema Marwa Ben Ali Wided Malah Raja Lfalah Wassim Almawi Mohammed Elanbari Andrey Ptitsyn Sana Mahjoub Rabeb El Ghali Bechir Achour Nidhal Ben Amor Brahim N’siri Hamid Morjani Esam Azhar Vera Chayeb Maryam Dendena Hedia Zitouni Khedija Zouari-Limayem Bassem Refaat Ahmed M. Ashshi Sarah A. Batwa Hazem Ramadan Amal Awad Ahmed Ateya Adel Galal Ahmed El-Shemi Ahmad Ashshi Mohammed Basalamah Youjin Na Cha University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center Dallas USA Department of Cell Biology and Anatomy Graduate School of Medicine the University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan Center of Excellence in Genomic Medicine Research King Abdulaziz University Jeddah Saudi Arabia Department of Biochemistry and Molecular & Cellular Biology Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center Georgetown University Washington USA Department of Oncology Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center Georgetown University Washington USA Department of Radiation Medicine Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center Georgetown University Washington USA Center of Excellence in Genomic Medicine Research (CEGMR) King Abdulaziz University Jeddah Kingdom of Saudi Arabia King Fahd Medical Research Centre King Abdulaziz University Jeddah Saudi Arabia Centre of Excellence in Genomic Medicine Research King Abdulaziz University Jeddah Saudi Arabia Sheffield Diagnostic Genetic Service Sheffield Children’s NHS Foundation Trust Western Bank Sheffield UK Center of Innovations in Personalized Medicine King Abdulaziz University Jeddah Saudi Arabia President ISBER Editor-in-Chief Biopreservation & Biobanking ᅟ USA Institute of Applied Genetics Department of Molecular and Medical Genetics University of North Texas Health Science Center Fort Worth USA Department of Dental Public Health Faculty of Dentistry King Abdulaziz University Jeddah Saudi Arabia Institute for Genomics and Evolutionary Medicine Temple University Philadelphia USA Center of Excellence in Genomic Medicine King Abdulaziz University Jeddah Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Laboratory of Molecular and Cellular Screening Processes (Bioinformatics Group) Centre of Biotechnology of Sfax Sfax Tunisia Fujitsu Technology Solutions International ᅟ ᅟ Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine and Lerner College of Medicine Cleveland Clinic Foundation Cleveland USA American Center for Reproductive Medicine Andrology Center Cleveland USA Center for Reproductive Medicine and

O1 Regulation of genes by telomere length over long distances Jerry W. Shay O2 The microtubule destabilizer KIF2A regulates the postnatal establishment of neuronal circuits in addition to prenatal cell survival, cell migration, and axon elongation, and its loss leading to malformation of cortical development and severe epilepsy Noriko Homma, Ruyun Zhou, Muhammad Imran Naseer, Adeel G. Chaudhary, Mohammed Al-Qahtani, Nobutaka Hirokawa O3 Integration of metagenomics and metabolomics in gut microbiome research Maryam Goudarzi, Albert J. Fornace Jr. O4 A unique integrated system to discern pathogenesis of central nervous system tumors Saleh Baeesa, Deema Hussain, Mohammed Bangash, Fahad Alghamdi, Hans-Juergen Schulten, Angel Carracedo, Ishaq Khan, Hanadi Qashqari, Nawal Madkhali, Mohamad Saka, Kulvinder S. Saini, Awatif Jamal, Jaudah Al-Maghrabi, Adel Abuzenadah, Adeel Chaudhary, Mohammed Al Qahtani, Ghazi Damanhouri O5 RPL27A is a target of miR-595 and deficiency contributes to ribosomal dysgenesis Heba Alkhatabi O6 Next generation DNA sequencing panels for haemostatic and platelet disorders and for Fanconi anaemia in routine diagnostic service Anne Goodeve, Laura Crookes, Nikolas Niksic, Nicholas Beauchamp O7 Targeted sequencing panels and their utilization in personalized medicine Adel M. Abuzenadah O8 International biobanking in the era of precision medicine Jim Vaught O9 Biobank and biodata for clinical and forensic applications Bruce Budowle, Mourad Assidi, Abdelbaset Buhmeida O10 Tissue microarray technique: a powerful adjunct tool for molecular profiling of solid tumors Jaudah Al-Maghrabi O11 The CEGMR biobanking unit: achievements, challenges and future plans Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mourad Assidi, Leena Merdad O12 Phylomedicine of tumors Sudhir Kumar, Sayaka Miura, Karen Gomez O13 Clinical implementation of pharmacogenomics for colorectal cancer treatment Angel Carracedo, Mahmood Rasool O14 From association to causality: translation of GWAS findings for genomic me

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Poster abstracts

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Sleep and Biological Rhythms 2016年第1期5卷 A1-A189页

作者： J. Ferrie M. Shipley F. Cappuccio E. Brunner M. Miller M. Kumari M. Marmot A. Coenen J. L. Castillo F. Araya G. Bustamante L. Montecino C. Torres S. Oporto J. Gronli E. Fiske R. Murison B. Bjorvatn E. Sorensen R. Ursin C. M. Portas S. Rajaraman A. Gribok N. Wesensten T. Balkin J. Reifman N. Dursunoglu S. Ozkurt S. Baser O. Delen S. Sarikaya P. Sadler P. Mitchell D. Françon M. Decobert B. Herve A. Richard G. Griebel P. Avenet B. Scatton G. L. Fur D. Eckert A. Jordan A. Wellman S. Smith A. Malhotra D. White D. Bruck I. Thomas A. Kritikos W. Oertel K. Stiasny-Kolster D. Garcia-Borreguero W. Poewe B. Hoegl R. Kohnen E. Schollmayer J. Keffel C. Trenkwalder A. Valle S. Roizenblatt F. Fregni P. Boggio S. Tufik K. Ward L. Robertson L. Palmer P. Eastwood D. Hillman J. Lee S. Mukherjee V. de Padova G. Barbato G. Ficca I. Zilli P. Salzarulo M. Veldi T. Hion V. Vasar M. Kull L. Nowak J. Davis Y. Latzer O. Tzischinsky S. Crowley M. Carskadon M. Anca-Herschkovitsch D. Frey J. Ortega C. Wiseman C. Farley K. Wright A. Campbell A. Neill K. Spiegel R. Leproult E. Tasali N. Scherberg E. van Cauter A. T. Noradina N. A. Karim I. Norlinah A. A. Raymond R. Sahathevan B. Hamidon E. Werth R. Poryazova R. Khatami C. Bassetti R. G. Beran L. Ainley G. Holand J. Duncan H. Kinney B. Davis B. Hood S. Frey C. Schmidt M. Hofstetter P. Peigneux C. Cajochen W.-P. Hu J.-D. Li C. Zhang L. Boehmer J. Siegel Q.-Y. Zhou Y. Sagawa H. Kondo T. Takemura H. Kanayama Y. Kaneko M. Sato T. Kanbayashi Y. Hishikawa T. Shimizu A. Viola L. James L. Schlangen D.-J. Dijk R. Andretic Y.-C. Kim K.-A. Han F. Jones R. Greenspan L. Sanford L. Yang X. Tang K. Dieter E. Uta H. Sven M. Richard N. Oyane S. Pallesen F. Holsten Y. Inoue M. Fujita N. Emura K. Kuroda N. Uchimura A. Johnston J. Astbury G. Kennedy K. Hoedlmoser M. Schabus T. Pecherstorfer S. Moser G. Gruber P. Anderer W. Klimesch N. Naidoo M. Ferber A. Pack D. Neu O. Mairesse G. Hoffmann A. Dris L. Lambrecht P. Linkowski P. Verbanck O. Le Bon N. Matsuura M. Yamao N. Adachi R. Aritomi Y. Komada H. Tanaka S. Shirak University College London London UK University College London London USA Warwick Medical School London UK Warwick Medical School Coventry USA Radboud University Nijmegen Nijmegen Netherlands Department of Neurology University of Chile Santiago Chile Neurology Service Hospital del Salvador Santiago Chile Family Health Center Juan Pablo II Santiago Chile Department of Biomedicine Section on Physiology Univeristy of Bergen Bergen Norway Department of Public Health and Primary Health Care Univeristy of Bergen Bergen Norway Department of Public Health and Primary Health Care University of Bergen Bergen Norway Norwegian Competence Center for Sleep Disorders Haukeland University Hospital Bergen Norway Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Haukeland University Hospital Univeristy of Bergen Bergen Norway Department of Biomedicine University of Bergen Bergen Norway US Army Medical Research and Materiel Command Fort Detrick Frederick USA Walter Reed Army Institute of Research Silver Spring USA Department of Behavioral Biology Walter Reed Army Institute of Research Silver Spring USA Faculty Department of Pulmonology Pamukkale University Medical Denizli Turkey University of Ballarat Ballarat Australia Sanofi-Aventis Recherche et Developpement Paris France Brigham and Women’s Hospital Harvard Medical School Boston USA The University of Queensland Adelaide Australia School of Psychology University of Queensland Brisbane Australia The University of Queensland Brisbane Australia Victoria University Melbourne Australia Department of Psychology Victoria University Melbourne Australia School of Psychology Victoria University Melbourne Australia Philips-Universität Marburg Germany Philips-Universitaet-Marburg Marburg Germany Instituto de Investigaciones del Sueno Madrid Spain Universitätsklinik für Neurologie Innsbruck Austria Universitaetsklinik fuer Neurologie Innsbruck Austria IMEREM GmbH Nuernberg Germany Schwarz Pharma AG Monheim Germany

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Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

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The Lancet HIV 2021年第10期8卷 e633-e651页

作者： Jahagirdar, Deepa Walters, Magdalene K. Novotney, Amanda Brewer, Edmond D. Frank, Tahvi D. Carter, Austin Biehl, Molly H. Abbastabar, Hedayat Abhilash, E.S. Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal Adekanmbi, Victor Adeyinka, Daniel Adedayo Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Afzal, Saira Aghababaei, Soodabeh Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Sepideh Ahmadpour, Ehsan Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Rashid, Tarik Ahmed Salih, Yusra Ahmed Aklilu, Addis Akram, Tayyaba Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet Al Hamad, Hanadi Alahdab, Fares Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Aleksandrova, Ekaterina A. Alene, Kefyalew Addis Ali, Liaqat Alipour, Vahid Almustanyir, Sami Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amu, Hubert Andrei, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Anvari, Davood Arabloo, Jalal Aremu, Olatunde Arulappan, Judie Atnafu, Desta Debalkie Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Ayza, Muluken Altaye Azari, Samad Darshan, B.B. Banach, Maciej Bärnighausen, Till Winfried Barra, Fabio Barrow, Amadou Basu, Sanjay Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad Belay, Habtamu Gebrehana Berheto, Tezera Moshago Bezabhe, Woldesellassie Mequanint Bezabih, Yihienew Mequanint Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bibi, Sadia Bijani, Ali Bisignano, Catherine Bolarinwa, Obasanjo Afolabi Boloor, Archith Boltaev, Azizbek A. Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Buonsenso, Danilo Burkart, Katrin Butt, Zahid A. Cao, Chao Charan, Jaykaran Chatterjee, Souranshu Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan Chu, Dinh-Toi Couto, Rosa A.S. Cowden, Richard G. Dachew, Berihun Assefa Dadras, Omid Dagnew, Amare Belachew Dahlawi, Saad M.A. Dai, Xiaochen Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi das Neves, José Degenhardt, Louisa Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen Desta, Abebaw Alemayehu Deuba, Keshab Dhamnetiya, Deepak Dhungana, Govinda Prasad Dianatinasab, Mostafa Diaz, Daniel Djalalinia, Shirin Doan, Linh Phuong Dorostkar, Fariba Edinur, Hisham Atan Effiong, Andem Eftekharzadeh, Sahar El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa Elayedath, Rajesh Elhadi, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Global Health University of Washington Seattle WA United States School of Social Work University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeones Columbia University Medical Center New York NY United States Division of Data Analytics and Delivery for Impact WHO Geneva Switzerland Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Multiple Sclerosis Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran School of Public Health Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Paediatric Chronic Kidney Disease Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Psychiatry Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Metabolomics and Genomics Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Centre for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Non-Communicable Diseases Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Botany Sree Narayana Guru College Chelannur Kozhikode India Clinical Sciences Department University of Sharjah Sharjah United Arab Emirates Mass Communication Department University of Sharjah Sharjah United Arab Emirates Department of Health-Care Policy and Research Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar Doha Qatar Department of Population Medicine Ca

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was

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Global investments in pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: development assistance and domestic spending on health between 1990 and 2026

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The Lancet Global Health 2023年第3期11卷 e385-e413页

作者： Micah, Angela E. Bhangdia, Kayleigh Cogswell, Ian E. Lasher, Dylan Lidral-Porter, Brendan Maddison, Emilie R. Nguyen, Trang Nhu Ngoc Patel, Nishali Pedroza, Paola Solorio, Juan Stutzman, Hayley Tsakalos, Golsum Wang, Yifeng Warriner, Wesley Zhao, Yingxi Zlavog, Bianca S. Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Jaffar Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abdelmasseh, Michael Abdulah, Deldar Morad Abedi, Aidin Abegaz, Kedir Hussein Abhilash, E.S. Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abrigo, Michael R.M. Abubaker Ali, Hiwa Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Adem, Mohammed Hussien Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Ahmadi, Ali Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed Rashid, Tarik Aji, Budi Akbarialiabad, Hossein Akelew, Yibeltal Al Hamad, Hanadi Alam, Khurshid Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alanzi, Turki M. Al-Hanawi, Mohammed Khaled Alhassan, Robert Kaba Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Almustanyir, Sami Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. Amare, Azmeraw T. Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amini-Rarani, Mostafa Amu, Hubert Ancuceanu, Robert Andrei, Tudorel Anwar, Sumadi Lukman Appiah, Francis Aqeel, Muhammad Arabloo, Jalal Arab-Zozani, Morteza Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Aremu, Olatunde Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Avila-Burgos, Leticia Ayanore, Martin Amogre Azari, Samad Baig, Atif Amin Bantie, Abere Tilahun Barrow, Amadou Baskaran, Pritish Basu, Sanjay Batiha, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Baune, Bernhard T. Berezvai, Zombor Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhaskar, Sonu Boachie, Micheal Kofi Bodolica, Virginia Botelho, João Silva Botelho Braithwaite, Dejana Breitborde, Nicholas J.K. Busse, Reinhard Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero Catalá-López, Ferrán Chansa, Collins Charan, Jaykaran Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chen, Simiao Chukwu, Isaac Sunday Dadras, Omid Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dargahi, Abdollah Debela, Sisay Abebe Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar Desye, Belay Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda Diao, Nancy Doan, Linh Phuong Dodangeh, Milad dos Santos, Wendel Mombaque Doshmangir, Leila Dube, John Eini, Ebrahim El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa El Tantawi, Maha Enyew, Daniel Berhanie Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Applied Mathematics University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Nuffield Department of Medicine University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Antai College of Economics Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai China Non-communicable Diseases Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Multiple Sclerosis Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Children’s Medical Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Tehran Heart Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Faculty of Medicine Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran National Institute for Health Research Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Pharmacology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Cardiology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Digestive Diseases Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Neurology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Economics and Statistics Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Neurosurgery Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Ophthalmic R

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in health surveillance systems, disease prevention, and treatment globally. Among the many factors that might have led to these gaps is the issue of the financing of national health systems, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as a robust global system for pandemic preparedness. We aimed to provide a comparative assessment of global health spending at the onset of the pandemic;characterise the amount of development assistance for pandemic preparedness and response disbursed in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic;and examine expectations for future health spending and put into context the expected need for investment in pandemic preparedness. Methods: In this analysis of global health spending between 1990 and 2021, and prediction from 2021 to 2026, we estimated four sources of health spending: development assistance for health (DAH), government spending, out-of-pocket spending, and prepaid private spending across 204 countries and territories. We used the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)'s Creditor Reporting System (CRS) and the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database (GHED) to estimate spending. We estimated development assistance for general health, COVID-19 response, and pandemic preparedness and response using a keyword search. Health spending estimates were combined with estimates of resources needed for pandemic prevention and preparedness to analyse future health spending patterns, relative to need. Findings: In 2019, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, US$9·2 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·1–9·3) was spent on health worldwide. We found great disparities in the amount of resources devoted to health, with high-income countries spending $7·3 trillion (95% UI 7·2–7·4) in 2019;293·7 times the $24·8 billion (95% UI 24·3–25·3) spent by low-income countries in 2019. That same year, $43·1 billion in development assistance was provided

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