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Global investments in pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: development assistance and domestic spending on health between 1990 and 2026

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The Lancet Global Health 2023年第3期11卷 e385-e413页

作者： Micah, Angela E. Bhangdia, Kayleigh Cogswell, Ian E. Lasher, Dylan Lidral-Porter, Brendan Maddison, Emilie R. Nguyen, Trang Nhu Ngoc Patel, Nishali Pedroza, Paola Solorio, Juan Stutzman, Hayley Tsakalos, Golsum Wang, Yifeng Warriner, Wesley Zhao, Yingxi Zlavog, Bianca S. Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Jaffar Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abdelmasseh, Michael Abdulah, Deldar Morad Abedi, Aidin Abegaz, Kedir Hussein Abhilash, E.S. Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abrigo, Michael R.M. Abubaker Ali, Hiwa Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Adem, Mohammed Hussien Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Ahmadi, Ali Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed Rashid, Tarik Aji, Budi Akbarialiabad, Hossein Akelew, Yibeltal Al Hamad, Hanadi Alam, Khurshid Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alanzi, Turki M. Al-Hanawi, Mohammed Khaled Alhassan, Robert Kaba Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Almustanyir, Sami Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. Amare, Azmeraw T. Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amini-Rarani, Mostafa Amu, Hubert Ancuceanu, Robert Andrei, Tudorel Anwar, Sumadi Lukman Appiah, Francis Aqeel, Muhammad Arabloo, Jalal Arab-Zozani, Morteza Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Aremu, Olatunde Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Avila-Burgos, Leticia Ayanore, Martin Amogre Azari, Samad Baig, Atif Amin Bantie, Abere Tilahun Barrow, Amadou Baskaran, Pritish Basu, Sanjay Batiha, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Baune, Bernhard T. Berezvai, Zombor Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhaskar, Sonu Boachie, Micheal Kofi Bodolica, Virginia Botelho, João Silva Botelho Braithwaite, Dejana Breitborde, Nicholas J.K. Busse, Reinhard Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero Catalá-López, Ferrán Chansa, Collins Charan, Jaykaran Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chen, Simiao Chukwu, Isaac Sunday Dadras, Omid Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dargahi, Abdollah Debela, Sisay Abebe Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar Desye, Belay Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda Diao, Nancy Doan, Linh Phuong Dodangeh, Milad dos Santos, Wendel Mombaque Doshmangir, Leila Dube, John Eini, Ebrahim El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa El Tantawi, Maha Enyew, Daniel Berhanie Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Applied Mathematics University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Nuffield Department of Medicine University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Antai College of Economics Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai China Non-communicable Diseases Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Multiple Sclerosis Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Children’s Medical Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Tehran Heart Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Faculty of Medicine Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran National Institute for Health Research Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Pharmacology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Cardiology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Digestive Diseases Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Neurology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Economics and Statistics Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Neurosurgery Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Ophthalmic R

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in health surveillance systems, disease prevention, and treatment globally. Among the many factors that might have led to these gaps is the issue of the financing of national health systems, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as a robust global system for pandemic preparedness. We aimed to provide a comparative assessment of global health spending at the onset of the pandemic;characterise the amount of development assistance for pandemic preparedness and response disbursed in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic;and examine expectations for future health spending and put into context the expected need for investment in pandemic preparedness. Methods: In this analysis of global health spending between 1990 and 2021, and prediction from 2021 to 2026, we estimated four sources of health spending: development assistance for health (DAH), government spending, out-of-pocket spending, and prepaid private spending across 204 countries and territories. We used the Organisation for economic Co-operation and development (OECD)'s Creditor Reporting System (CRS) and the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database (GHED) to estimate spending. We estimated development assistance for general health, COVID-19 response, and pandemic preparedness and response using a keyword search. Health spending estimates were combined with estimates of resources needed for pandemic prevention and preparedness to analyse future health spending patterns, relative to need. Findings: In 2019, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, US$9·2 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·1–9·3) was spent on health worldwide. We found great disparities in the amount of resources devoted to health, with high-income countries spending $7·3 trillion (95% UI 7·2–7·4) in 2019;293·7 times the $24·8 billion (95% UI 24·3–25·3) spent by low-income countries in 2019. That same year, $43·1 billion in development assistance was provided

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Getting Undergraduates Ready for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Through an Overseas Experiential Learning Project

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China and the World 2021年第3期4卷

作者： Andrew Min Han Chin Thomas Menkhoff Hans-Dieter Evers Hoong Hui Daniel Gn Kevin Koh Chester Wey Lee Patrick H. M. Loh Linda Low Sebastian Tan Teng Seng Teo Natalie Yap Lee Kong Chian School of Business Singapore Management University (SMU) 81 Victoria Street Singapore 188065 Singapore Andrew Chin Min Han graduated from Tsinghua University in Beijing China with a Tsinghua–MIT Sloan International Master of Business Administration degree under the Singapore Government’s Asian Business Fellowship (ABF) scholarship program. He is the Program Director of Singapore Management University (SMU) Executive Certificate in China Business and of the SMU Internationalisation Series. He teaches as an Adjunct Faculty of Strategy and Organisation at the SMU Lee Kong Chian School of Business since January 2017. He teaches effectively in English and Chinese. With over 23 years of experience in education and publishing industry in Asia Andrew Chin’s multi-sector career has enabled him to experience the full spectrum of the education industry in his roles as the Singapore EDB Officer handling the World-Class University portfolio and the Specialist Information and Publishing Industry portfolio Chief Representative and Country Manager (China) at Thomson Learning (Fortune 500 company) and Co-founder and CEO for an early childhood education business. Andrew was a Business Development Director (Universities) at Sodexo Group (Fortune 500 company) for the Asia-Pacific region. After working 10 years in Beijing China Andrew returned to Singapore in 2012 to work closely with the top leadership at Singapore Management University on the SMU China & East Asia Initiatives. Thomas Menkhoff is the Professor of Organisational Behaviour & Human Resources (Education) at the Lee Kong Chian School of Business Singapore Management University (SMU). Two of his recent publications include: (i) Menkhoff Thomas Ning Kan Siew Evers Hans-Dieter and Chay Yue Wah eds. Living in Smart Cities: Innovation and Sustainability (New Jersey: World Scientific Publishing 2018) and (ii) Chay Yue Wah Menkhoff Thomas and Low Linda eds. China’s Belt and Road Initiative — Understanding the Dynamics of a Global Transfor

In this paper, we explain how an experiential learning course and study tour to Gansu Province (People’s Republic of China) enabled undergraduates at the Singapore Management University (SMU) to acquire 21st-century competencies and higher-order thinking skills by analyzing and evaluating specific aspects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China–Singapore (Chongqing) Connectivity Initiative — New International Land–Sea Trade Corridor (CCI-ILSTC) with emphasis on developing viable Go-To-Market (GTM) strategies aimed at selling Gansu produce in four Southeast Asian markets. We share how the course was designed to support the attainment of key learning goals and discuss how we turned pedagogical aspirations into concrete learning outcomes. We introduce key aspects of the so-called “SMU-XO” project that the students conducted in partnership with an industry partner, Pacific International Lines (PIL), and discuss how the project work helped learners to gain global competency by (i) examining critical issues related to BRI such as multi-modal infrastructure connectivity, (ii) appreciating the local perspectives of project stakeholders in Lanzhou and Shanghai and (iii) successfully interacting with people from different cultures, namely China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand.

关键词： Experiential learning Singapore China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

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Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM_2·5 air pollution, 1990–2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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The Lancet Planetary Health 2022年第7期6卷 e586-e600页

作者： Burkart, Katrin Causey, Kate Cohen, Aaron J Wozniak, Sarah S Salvi, Devashri Digvijay Abbafati, Cristiana Adekanmbi, Victor Adsuar, Jose C Ahmadi, Keivan Alahdab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alipour, Vahid Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amegah, Adeladza Kofi Andrei, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Ansari, Fereshteh Arabloo, Jalal Aremu, Olatunde Aripov, Timur Babaee, Ebrahim Banach, MacIej Barnett, Anthony Bärnighausen, Till Winfried Bedi, Neeraj Behzadifar, Masoud Béjot, Yannick Bennett, Derrick A Bensenor, Isabela M Bernstein, Robert S Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bijani, Ali Biondi, Antonio Bohlouli, Somayeh Breitner, Susanne Brenner, Hermann Butt, Zahid A Cámera, Luis Alberto Cantu-Brito, Carlos Carvalho, Felix Cerin, Ester Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chauhan, Bal Govind Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine Chu, Dinh-Toi Dai, Xiaochen Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Daryani, Ahmad Davletov, Kairat De Courten, Barbora Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda Dhimal, Meghnath Diaz, Daniel Djalalinia, Shirin Duncan, Bruce B El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa Eskandarieh, Sharareh Fareed, Mohammad Farzadfar, Farshad Fattahi, Nazir Fazlzadeh, Mehdi Fernandes, Eduarda Filip, Irina Fischer, Florian Foigt, Nataliya A Freitas, Marisa Ghashghaee, Ahmad Gill, Paramjit Singh Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageed Gopalani, Sameer Vali Guo, Yuming Gupta, Rajat Das Habtewold, Tesfa Dejenie Hamadeh, Randah R Hamidi, Samer Hankey, Graeme J Hasanpoor, Edris Hassen, Hamid Yimam Hay, Simon I Heibati, Behzad Hole, Michael K Hossain, Naznin Househ, Mowafa Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi Jaafari, Jalil Jakovljevic, Mihajlo Jha, Ravi Prakash Jonas, Jost B Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy Kasaeian, Amir Kaydi, Neda Khader, Yousef Saleh Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Junaid Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khatab, Khaled Khater, Amir M Kim, Yun Jin Kimokoti, Ruth W Kisa, Adnan Kivimäki, Mika Knibbs, Luke D Kosen, Soewarta Koul, Parvaiz A Koyanagi, Ai Defo, Barthelemy Kuate Kugbey, Nuworza Lauriola, Paolo Lee, Paul H Leili, Mostafa Lewycka, Sonia Li, Shanshan Lim, Lee-Ling Li Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Division of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery University of Washington Seattle WA United States Research Insights and Innovation Seattle WA United States Health Effects Institute Boston MA United States School of Public Health Boston University Boston MA United States Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Department of Population Medicine Cardiff University Cardiff United Kingdom Sport Science Department University of Extremadura Badajoz Spain School of Public Health Imperial College London London United Kingdom Department of Primary Care and Public Health Imperial College London London United Kingdom Mayo Evidence-based Practice Center Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research Rochester MN United States John T. Milliken Department of Internal Medicine Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis MO United States Clinical Epidemiology Center US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) St Louis MO United States Health Management and Economics Research Center Iran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Economics Iran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center Iran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Pars Advanced and Minimally Invasive Medical Manners Research Center Iran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Community and Family Medicine Iran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Group in Hospital Management and Health Policies Universidad de la Costa (University of the Coast) Barranquilla Colombia Research Group in Health Economics University of Cartagena Cartagena Colombia Department of Biomedical Science University of Cape Coast Cape Coast Ghana Cardiology Department Ca

Background: Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM_2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution. Methods: We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure–response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM_2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM_2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM_2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68–4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117–223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49–17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73–17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22–9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81–8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South Am

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Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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The Lancet 2020年第10258期396卷 1204-1222页

作者： Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Kaja M. Abbasi, Mohammad Abbasifard, Mitra Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbastabar, Hedayat Abd-Allah, Foad Abdelalim, Ahmed Abdollahi, Mohammad Abdollahpour, Ibrahim Abedi, Aidin Abedi, Parisa Abegaz, Kedir Hussein Abolhassani, Hassan Abosetugn, Akine Eshete Aboyans, Victor Abrams, Elissa M. Abreu, Lucas Guimarães Abrigo, Michael R.M. Abu Haimed, Abdulaziz Khalid Abualhasan, Ahmed Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal Abushouk, Abdelrahman I. Acebedo, Alyssa Ackerman, Ilana N. Adabi, Maryam Adair, Tim Adamu, Abdu A. Adebayo, Oladimeji M. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adekanmbi, Victor Adelson, Jaimie D. Adeoye, Abiodun Moshood Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Adham, Davoud Advani, Shailesh M. Afarideh, Mohsen Afshari, Mahdi Afshin, Ashkan Agardh, Emilie E. Agarwal, Gina Agasthi, Pradyumna Agesa, Kareha M. Aghaali, Mohammad Aghamir, Seyed Mohammad Kazem Agrawal, Anurag Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmadi, Alireza Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadieh, Hamid Ahmadpour, Ehsan Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Aji, Budi Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akinyemiju, Tomi Akombi, Blessing Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet Alahdab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Samiah Alam, Tahiya Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alanzi, Turki M. Albertson, Samuel B. Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alema, Niguse Meles Alemu, Biresaw Wassihun Alemu, Yihun Mulugeta Alhabib, Khalid F. Alhassan, Robert Kaba Ali, Muhammad Ali, Saqib Alicandro, Gianfranco Alijanzadeh, Mehran Alinia, Cyrus Alipour, Vahid Alizade, Hesam Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Alla, François Allebeck, Peter Almadi, Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almasi, Ali Almasi-Hashiani, Amir Almasri, Nihad A. Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. Almulhim, Abdulaziz M. Alonso, Jordi Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Altirkawi, Khalid A. Alumran, Arwa Khalid Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. Amare, Azmeraw T. Amare, Bekalu Amini, Saeed Amini-Rarani, Mostafa Aminorroaya, Arya Amiri, Fatemeh Amit, Arianna Maever L. Amugsi, Dickson A. Amul, Gianna Gayle Herrera Anbesu, Etsay Woldu Ancuceanu, Robert Anderl Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London United Kingdom Social Determinants of Health Research Center Tehran Iran Department of Neurology Cairo University Cairo Egypt School of Pharmacy Tehran Iran The Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences (TIPS) Tehran Iran Neuroscience Research Center Isfahan University of Medical Sciences Isfahan Iran Biostatistics Department Near East University Nicosia Cyprus Biostatistics and Health Informatics Madda Walabu University Bale Robe Ethiopia Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran Iran Karolinska University Hospital Huddinge Sweden Department of Cardiology Dupuytren University Hospital Limoges France University of Limoges Limoges France Department of Pediatric Dentistry Federal University of Minas Gerais Belo Horizonte Brazil Department of Research Philippine Institute for Development Studies Quezon City Philippines Department of Healthcare Policy and Research Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar Doha Qatar Harvard Medical School Boston MA United States Department of Medicine Ain Shams University Cairo Egypt Hamadan University of Medical Sciences Hamadan Iran School of Medicine Cardiff University Cardiff United Kingdom School of Laboratory Medicine and Science University College Hospital Ibadan Ibadan Nigeria Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases University of Ibadan Ibadan Nigeria Centre of Excellence for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis Stellenbosch University Cape Town South Africa Department of Global Health Stellenbosch University Cape Town South Africa School of Health Ardabil University of Medical Science Ardabil Iran Social Behavioral Research Branch National Institute of Health Bethesda MD United States Department of Oncology Georgetown University Washington DC DC United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine Seattle WA

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw value

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Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (vol 395, pg 1779, 2020)

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LANCET 2020年第10239期395卷 1762-1762页

作者： Reiner, R. C., Jr. Hay, S., I Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Global Health School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States College of Health and Medical Sciences Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Nursing and Midwifery Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Pharmacy Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Public Health Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Cancer Biology Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Cancer Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Economics and Management Sciences for Health Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Environmental Health Engineering Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Management and Economics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Microbiology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Pharmacology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Digestive Diseases Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Iran National Institute of Health Research Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Metabolomics and

Summary Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood *** We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor *** The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy *** By co-analysing geospatial trends in d

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Characterising acute and chronic care needs: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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Nature communications 2025年第1期16卷 4235-4235页

作者： Cecilia Anza-Ramirez J. Jaime Miranda Benedetta Armocida Jorge César Correia Harriette Gillian Christine Van Spall David Beran Amirali Aali Kalkidan Hassen Abate Semagn Mekonnen Abate Cristiana Abbafati Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari Zahra Aryan Sina Azadnajafabad Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari Mohammad Keykhaei Javad Khanali Sara Momtazmanesh Fateme Montazeri Shayan Rahmani Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi Nazila Rezaei Negar Rezaei Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam Ali-Asghar Kolahi Ali Nikoobar Hedayat Abbastabar Ahmed M. Abdel-Azeem Michael Abdelmasseh Juan Sanabria Sherief Abd-Elsalam Ahmed Abdelwahab Gholamreza Abdoli Mohammad Abdollahi Meriem Abdoun Deldar Morad Abdulah Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah Ame Mehadi Abdurehman Getachew Abebe Aidin Abedi Chirag P. Doshi Vida Abedi Hassan Abidi Richard Gyan Aboagye Hassan Abolhassani Nima Rezaei Lucas Guimarães Abreu Michael R. M. Abrigo Yonas Derso Abtew Hiwa Abubaker Ali Eman Abu-Gharbieh Hiba Jawdat Barqawi Rabih Halwani Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad Iman M. Talaat Ahmed Abu-Zaid Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi Juan Manuel Acuna Denberu Eshetie Adane Tigist Demssew Adane Isaac Yeboah Addo Giovanni Addolorato Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Victor Adekanmbi Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa Olatunji O. Adetokunboh Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi Muhammad Sohail Afzal Saira Afzal Gina Agarwal Prerna Agarwal Pradyumna Agasthi Anurag Agrawal Marcela Agudelo-Botero Adolfo Martinez-Valle Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Aqeel Ahmad Sajjad Ahmad Sohail Ahmad Tauseef Ahmad Ali Ahmadi Siamak Sabour Keivan Ahmadi Sanjay Basu Sepideh Ahmadi Ali Ahmed Shaun Wen Huey Lee Ayman Ahmed Haroon Ahmed Jivan Qasim Ahmed Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya Yahya Luai A. Ahmed Iffat Elbarazi Syed Mahboob Shah Janardhana P. Aithala Marjan Ajami Budi Aji Hossein Akbarialiabad Yibeltal Akelew Meisam Akhlaghdoust Elham Jamshidi Addis Aklilu Azene Tesfaye Melat Woldemariam Maxwell Ak CRONICAS Center of Excellence in Chronic Diseases Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia Lima Peru School of Medicine Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia Lima Peru Sydney School of Public Health Faculty of Medicine and Health University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine London UK Division of Tropical and Humanitarian Medicine University of Geneva Geneva Switzerland Department of Cardiovascular Endocrine-metabolic Diseases and Aging Istituto Superiore di Sanità Rome Italy Division of Endocrinology Diabetology Nutrition and Therapeutic Patient Education Department of Medicine Geneva University Hospitals Geneva Switzerland Department of Medicine and Department of Health Research Evidence and Impact McMaster University Hamilton ON Canada Research Institute of St. Joe’s Hamilton ON Canada Population Health Research Institute Hamilton Canada Geneva University Hospitals Geneva Switzerland Faculty of Medicine Mashhad University of Medical Sciences Mashhad Iran Department of Nutrition and Dietetics Jimma University Jimma Ethiopia Anesthesiology Department Dilla University Addis Ababa Ethiopia Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Brigham and Women’s Hospital Harvard University Boston MA USA Students’ Scientific Research Center (SSRC) Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran School of Medicine Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran School of Medicine Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Chapter of Addiction Medicine University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia Advanced Diagnostic and Intervent

Chronic care manages long-term, progressive conditions, while acute care addresses short-term conditions. Chronic conditions increasingly strain health systems, which are often unprepared for these demands. This study examines the burden of conditions requiring acute versus chronic care, including sequelae. Conditions and sequelae from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 were classified into acute or chronic care categories. Data were analysed by age, sex, and socio-demographic index, presenting total numbers and contributions to burden metrics such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years Lived with Disability (YLD), and Years of Life Lost (YLL). Approximately 68% of DALYs were attributed to chronic care, while 27% were due to acute care. Chronic care needs increased with age, representing 86% of YLDs and 71% of YLLs, and accounting for 93% of YLDs from sequelae. These findings highlight that chronic care needs far exceed acute care needs globally, necessitating health systems to adapt accordingly. © 2025. The Author(s).

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Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study

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The Lancet HIV 2021年第6期8卷 e363-e375页

作者： Sartorius, Benn VanderHeide, John D. Yang, Mingyou Goosmann, Erik A. Hon, Julia Haeuser, Emily Cork, Michael A. Perkins, Samantha Jahagirdar, Deepa Schaeffer, Lauren E. Serfes, Audrey L. LeGrand, Kate E. Abbastabar, Hedayat Abebo, Zeleke Hailemariam Abosetugn, Akine Eshete Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou Adebayo, Oladimeji M. Adegbosin, Adeyinka Emmanuel Adekanmbi, Victor Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Adeyinka, Daniel Adedayo Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Akalu, Yonas Akinyemi, Oluwaseun Oladapo Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Aklilu, Addis Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet Alahdab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Noore Alamneh, Alehegn Aderaw Alanzi, Turki M. Alemu, Biresaw Wassihun Alhassan, Robert Kaba Ali, Tilahun Alipour, Vahid Amini, Saeed Ancuceanu, Robert Ansari, Fereshteh Anteneh, Zelalem Alamrew Anvari, Davood Anwer, Razique Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw Arabloo, Jalal Asemahagn, Mulusew A. Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad Asmare, Wondwossen Niguse Atnafu, Desta Debalkie Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atreya, Alok Ausloos, Marcel Awedew, Atalel Fentahun Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayanore, Martin Amogre Aynalem, Yared Asmare Ayza, Muluken Altaye Azari, Samad Azene, Zelalem Nigussie Babar, Zaheer-Ud-Din Baig, Atif Amin Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar Banach, Maciej Bärnighausen, Till Winfried Basu, Sanjay Bayati, Mohsen Bedi, Neeraj Bekuma, Tariku Tesfaye Bezabhe, Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. Bibi, Sadia Bikbov, Boris Birhan, Tsegaye Adane Bitew, Zebenay Workneh Bockarie, Moses John Boloor, Archith Brady, Oliver J. Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Burugina Nagaraja, Sharath Butt, Zahid A. Cárdenas, Rosario Carvalho, Felix Charan, Jaykaran Chatterjee, Souranshu Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chu, Dinh-Toi Cook, Aubrey J. Cormier, Natalie Maria Cowden, Richard G. Culquichicon, Carlos Dagnew, Baye Dahlawi, Saad M.A. D Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health Nuffield Department of Medicine University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Malaria Atlas Project University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom The George Institute for Global Health University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Global Health University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Insights Program Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Seattle WA United States Global Programs Medical Teams International Seattle WA United States Department of Pediatric Newborn Medicine Brigham and Women's Hospital Boston MA United States Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Multiple Sclerosis Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Pediatric Chronic Kidney Disease Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Environmental Health Engineering Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Metabolomics and Genomics Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Public Health Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia College of Medicine and Health Science Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia Department of Nursing Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia Department of Biomedical Sciences Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia Department of Public Health Debre Berhan University Debre Brehan

Background: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique,

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Importance of labelling and patient knowledge to ensure proper care during drug dispensing: A case study from a tertiary hospital in Ethiopia

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Open Journal of Preventive Medicine 2014年第1期4卷 1-7页

作者： Seblework Mekonen Wondimu Samuel Argaw Ambelu Department of Environmental Health Sciences & Technology Jimma University Jimma Ethiopia Graduate Program in Economic Development Vanderbilt Uni-versity Nashville USA

Correct drug labelling is central for ensuring proper drug dispensing and thus for patient safety. Labelling errors may result in adverse health outcomes. The objective of this study was, therefore, to assess the effect of labelling on the quality of drug dispensing and patient knowledge about dispensed drugs in Jimma University model and specialized hospital outpatient Pharmacies. Individual packages with prescribed drugs were examined using pretested questionnaire and observational check lists during the dispensing process. Patients’ knowledge about drugs dispensed to them was assessed at the exit interview using a pretested questionnaire. Out of 743 prescribed drugs, 682 (91.8%) were dispensed to 426 patients. The average labelling score (range from 0 to 6) of dispensed drugs in Model and Outpatient pharmacy was 2.00 (95% CI 1.97 to 2.04) and 1.73 (95% CI 1.6 to 1.8) respectively, with overall average labelling score of 1.90 (95% CI 1.84 to 1.91). The average patient knowledge score (range from 0 t0 5) was 3.45 (95% CI 3.31 to 3.59) and 3.5 (95% CI 3.35 to 3.64) for model and outpatient pharmacy, respectively, while the overall average knowledge score was 3.46 (95% CI 3.37 to 3.57). Major labelling problems were absence of patient’s name and dose followed by frequency of administration, duration of treatment, and the reason for prescription. Literacy status of patients had a significant effect on their knowledge (p 0.05). We recommend that corrective measures targeting both, labelling and patients’ knowledge should be implemented to improve the patients’ safety and drug therapy adherence.

关键词： Labelling Patient Knowledge Patient Care Outpatient Pharmacy Dispensed Drug

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Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

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The Lancet HIV 2021年第10期8卷 e633-e651页

作者： Jahagirdar, Deepa Walters, Magdalene K. Novotney, Amanda Brewer, Edmond D. Frank, Tahvi D. Carter, Austin Biehl, Molly H. Abbastabar, Hedayat Abhilash, E.S. Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal Adekanmbi, Victor Adeyinka, Daniel Adedayo Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Afzal, Saira Aghababaei, Soodabeh Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Sepideh Ahmadpour, Ehsan Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Rashid, Tarik Ahmed Salih, Yusra Ahmed Aklilu, Addis Akram, Tayyaba Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet Al Hamad, Hanadi Alahdab, Fares Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Aleksandrova, Ekaterina A. Alene, Kefyalew Addis Ali, Liaqat Alipour, Vahid Almustanyir, Sami Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amu, Hubert Andrei, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Anvari, Davood Arabloo, Jalal Aremu, Olatunde Arulappan, Judie Atnafu, Desta Debalkie Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Ayza, Muluken Altaye Azari, Samad Darshan, B.B. Banach, Maciej Bärnighausen, Till Winfried Barra, Fabio Barrow, Amadou Basu, Sanjay Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad Belay, Habtamu Gebrehana Berheto, Tezera Moshago Bezabhe, Woldesellassie Mequanint Bezabih, Yihienew Mequanint Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bibi, Sadia Bijani, Ali Bisignano, Catherine Bolarinwa, Obasanjo Afolabi Boloor, Archith Boltaev, Azizbek A. Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Buonsenso, Danilo Burkart, Katrin Butt, Zahid A. Cao, Chao Charan, Jaykaran Chatterjee, Souranshu Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan Chu, Dinh-Toi Couto, Rosa A.S. Cowden, Richard G. Dachew, Berihun Assefa Dadras, Omid Dagnew, Amare Belachew Dahlawi, Saad M.A. Dai, Xiaochen Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi das Neves, José Degenhardt, Louisa Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen Desta, Abebaw Alemayehu Deuba, Keshab Dhamnetiya, Deepak Dhungana, Govinda Prasad Dianatinasab, Mostafa Diaz, Daniel Djalalinia, Shirin Doan, Linh Phuong Dorostkar, Fariba Edinur, Hisham Atan Effiong, Andem Eftekharzadeh, Sahar El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa Elayedath, Rajesh Elhadi, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Global Health University of Washington Seattle WA United States School of Social Work University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeones Columbia University Medical Center New York NY United States Division of Data Analytics and Delivery for Impact WHO Geneva Switzerland Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Multiple Sclerosis Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran School of Public Health Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Paediatric Chronic Kidney Disease Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Psychiatry Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Metabolomics and Genomics Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Centre for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Non-Communicable Diseases Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Botany Sree Narayana Guru College Chelannur Kozhikode India Clinical Sciences Department University of Sharjah Sharjah United Arab Emirates Mass Communication Department University of Sharjah Sharjah United Arab Emirates Department of Health-Care Policy and Research Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar Doha Qatar Department of Population Medicine Ca

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was

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Why the Next Generation of Designers Will Save the World

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Design Management Review 2014年第2期25卷

作者： Courtney Lawrence Japan‐based university lecturer and founding director of the HJU Global Studies Peace and Leadership Summer Seminar a program that has included fieldwork with students from more than 40 countries to India Thailand Cambodia and the Philippines. Her academic research area focuses on the intersection of sustainable economic development social enterprise and design thinking. Lawrence serves on the executive committee of the Swiss‐based NGO World Alliance of YMCAs. Previous to co‐founding a US social enterprise in 2011 she worked with Ashoka's Full Economic Citizenship and has facilitated multiple trainings across Asia the Middle East Africa Europe and North and South America. She holds a master's degree in sustainable economic development and responsible management from the United Nations Graduate School of Peace and Conflict Studies and has lived worked and traveled across nearly 50 countries.

Step aside, pessimists. A new generation of designers has the desire and the passion to match its talent with a world that is desperate for solutions. The time has come for a sea change. An unexpectedly optimistic vie...

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