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Global investments in pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: development assistance and domestic spending on health between 1990 and 2026

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The Lancet Global Health 2023年第3期11卷 e385-e413页

作者： Micah, Angela E. Bhangdia, Kayleigh Cogswell, Ian E. Lasher, Dylan Lidral-Porter, Brendan Maddison, Emilie R. Nguyen, Trang Nhu Ngoc Patel, Nishali Pedroza, Paola Solorio, Juan Stutzman, Hayley Tsakalos, Golsum Wang, Yifeng Warriner, Wesley Zhao, Yingxi Zlavog, Bianca S. Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Jaffar Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abdelmasseh, Michael Abdulah, Deldar Morad Abedi, Aidin Abegaz, Kedir Hussein Abhilash, E.S. Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abrigo, Michael R.M. Abubaker Ali, Hiwa Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Adem, Mohammed Hussien Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Ahmadi, Ali Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed Rashid, Tarik Aji, Budi Akbarialiabad, Hossein Akelew, Yibeltal Al Hamad, Hanadi Alam, Khurshid Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alanzi, Turki M. Al-Hanawi, Mohammed Khaled Alhassan, Robert Kaba Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Almustanyir, Sami Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. Amare, Azmeraw T. Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amini-Rarani, Mostafa Amu, Hubert Ancuceanu, Robert Andrei, Tudorel Anwar, Sumadi Lukman Appiah, Francis Aqeel, Muhammad Arabloo, Jalal Arab-Zozani, Morteza Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Aremu, Olatunde Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Avila-Burgos, Leticia Ayanore, Martin Amogre Azari, Samad Baig, Atif Amin Bantie, Abere Tilahun Barrow, Amadou Baskaran, Pritish Basu, Sanjay Batiha, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Baune, Bernhard T. Berezvai, Zombor Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhaskar, Sonu Boachie, Micheal Kofi Bodolica, Virginia Botelho, João Silva Botelho Braithwaite, Dejana Breitborde, Nicholas J.K. Busse, Reinhard Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero Catalá-López, Ferrán Chansa, Collins Charan, Jaykaran Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chen, Simiao Chukwu, Isaac Sunday Dadras, Omid Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dargahi, Abdollah Debela, Sisay Abebe Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar Desye, Belay Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda Diao, Nancy Doan, Linh Phuong Dodangeh, Milad dos Santos, Wendel Mombaque Doshmangir, Leila Dube, John Eini, Ebrahim El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa El Tantawi, Maha Enyew, Daniel Berhanie Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Applied Mathematics University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Nuffield Department of Medicine University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Antai College of Economics Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai China Non-communicable Diseases Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Multiple Sclerosis Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Children’s Medical Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Tehran Heart Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Faculty of Medicine Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran National Institute for Health Research Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Pharmacology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Cardiology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Digestive Diseases Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Neurology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Economics and Statistics Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Neurosurgery Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Ophthalmic R

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in health surveillance systems, disease prevention, and treatment globally. Among the many factors that might have led to these gaps is the issue of the financing of national health systems, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as a robust global system for pandemic preparedness. We aimed to provide a comparative assessment of global health spending at the onset of the pandemic;characterise the amount of development assistance for pandemic preparedness and response disbursed in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic;and examine expectations for future health spending and put into context the expected need for investment in pandemic preparedness. Methods: In this analysis of global health spending between 1990 and 2021, and prediction from 2021 to 2026, we estimated four sources of health spending: development assistance for health (DAH), government spending, out-of-pocket spending, and prepaid private spending across 204 countries and territories. We used the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)'s Creditor Reporting System (CRS) and the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database (GHED) to estimate spending. We estimated development assistance for general health, COVID-19 response, and pandemic preparedness and response using a keyword search. Health spending estimates were combined with estimates of resources needed for pandemic prevention and preparedness to analyse future health spending patterns, relative to need. Findings: In 2019, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, US$9·2 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·1–9·3) was spent on health worldwide. We found great disparities in the amount of resources devoted to health, with high-income countries spending $7·3 trillion (95% UI 7·2–7·4) in 2019;293·7 times the $24·8 billion (95% UI 24·3–25·3) spent by low-income countries in 2019. That same year, $43·1 billion in development assistance was provided

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Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (vol 395, pg 1779, 2020)

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LANCET 2020年第10239期395卷 1762-1762页

作者： Reiner, R. C., Jr. Hay, S., I Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Global Health School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States College of Health and Medical Sciences Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Nursing and Midwifery Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Pharmacy Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Public Health Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Cancer Biology Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Cancer Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Economics and Management Sciences for Health Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Environmental Health Engineering Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Management and Economics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Microbiology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Pharmacology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Digestive Diseases Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Iran National Institute of Health Research Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Metabolomics and

Summary Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood *** We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor *** The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy *** By co-analysing geospatial trends in d

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Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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The Lancet 2020年第10258期396卷 1204-1222页

作者： Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Kaja M. Abbasi, Mohammad Abbasifard, Mitra Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbastabar, Hedayat Abd-Allah, Foad Abdelalim, Ahmed Abdollahi, Mohammad Abdollahpour, Ibrahim Abedi, Aidin Abedi, Parisa Abegaz, Kedir Hussein Abolhassani, Hassan Abosetugn, Akine Eshete Aboyans, Victor Abrams, Elissa M. Abreu, Lucas Guimarães Abrigo, Michael R.M. Abu Haimed, Abdulaziz Khalid Abualhasan, Ahmed Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal Abushouk, Abdelrahman I. Acebedo, Alyssa Ackerman, Ilana N. Adabi, Maryam Adair, Tim Adamu, Abdu A. Adebayo, Oladimeji M. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adekanmbi, Victor Adelson, Jaimie D. Adeoye, Abiodun Moshood Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Adham, Davoud Advani, Shailesh M. Afarideh, Mohsen Afshari, Mahdi Afshin, Ashkan Agardh, Emilie E. Agarwal, Gina Agasthi, Pradyumna Agesa, Kareha M. Aghaali, Mohammad Aghamir, Seyed Mohammad Kazem Agrawal, Anurag Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmadi, Alireza Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadieh, Hamid Ahmadpour, Ehsan Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Aji, Budi Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akinyemiju, Tomi Akombi, Blessing Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet Alahdab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Samiah Alam, Tahiya Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alanzi, Turki M. Albertson, Samuel B. Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alema, Niguse Meles Alemu, Biresaw Wassihun Alemu, Yihun Mulugeta Alhabib, Khalid F. Alhassan, Robert Kaba Ali, Muhammad Ali, Saqib Alicandro, Gianfranco Alijanzadeh, Mehran Alinia, Cyrus Alipour, Vahid Alizade, Hesam Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Alla, François Allebeck, Peter Almadi, Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almasi, Ali Almasi-Hashiani, Amir Almasri, Nihad A. Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. Almulhim, Abdulaziz M. Alonso, Jordi Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Altirkawi, Khalid A. Alumran, Arwa Khalid Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. Amare, Azmeraw T. Amare, Bekalu Amini, Saeed Amini-Rarani, Mostafa Aminorroaya, Arya Amiri, Fatemeh Amit, Arianna Maever L. Amugsi, Dickson A. Amul, Gianna Gayle Herrera Anbesu, Etsay Woldu Ancuceanu, Robert Anderl Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London United Kingdom Social Determinants of Health Research Center Tehran Iran Department of Neurology Cairo University Cairo Egypt School of Pharmacy Tehran Iran The Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences (TIPS) Tehran Iran Neuroscience Research Center Isfahan University of Medical Sciences Isfahan Iran Biostatistics Department Near East University Nicosia Cyprus Biostatistics and Health Informatics Madda Walabu University Bale Robe Ethiopia Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran Iran Karolinska University Hospital Huddinge Sweden Department of Cardiology Dupuytren University Hospital Limoges France University of Limoges Limoges France Department of Pediatric Dentistry Federal University of Minas Gerais Belo Horizonte Brazil Department of Research Philippine Institute for Development Studies Quezon City Philippines Department of Healthcare Policy and Research Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar Doha Qatar Harvard Medical School Boston MA United States Department of Medicine Ain Shams University Cairo Egypt Hamadan University of Medical Sciences Hamadan Iran School of Medicine Cardiff University Cardiff United Kingdom School of Laboratory Medicine and Science University College Hospital Ibadan Ibadan Nigeria Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases University of Ibadan Ibadan Nigeria Centre of Excellence for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis Stellenbosch University Cape Town South Africa Department of Global Health Stellenbosch University Cape Town South Africa School of Health Ardabil University of Medical Science Ardabil Iran Social Behavioral Research Branch National Institute of Health Bethesda MD United States Department of Oncology Georgetown University Washington DC DC United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine Seattle WA

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw value

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Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

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eClinicalMedicine 2023年 64卷 102193-102193页

作者： Wu, Dongze Jin, Yingzhao Xing, Yuhan Abate, Melsew Dagne Abbasian, Mohammadreza Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abd-Allah, Foad Abdelmasseh, Michael Abdollahifar, Mohammad-Amin Abdulah, Deldar Morad Abedi, Aidin Abedi, Vida Abidi, Hassan Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abuabara, Katrina Abyadeh, Morteza Addo, Isaac Yeboah Adeniji, Kayode Nelson Adepoju, Abiola Victor Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Afarideh, Mohsen Aghamiri, Shahin Agodi, Antonella Agrawal, Anurag Arriagada, Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Sohail Ahmadi, Ali Ahmed, Ayman Aithala, Janardhana P. Ajadi, Abdullateef Abiodun Ajami, Marjan Akbarzadeh-Khiavi, Mostafa Alahdab, Fares AlBataineh, Mohammad T. Alemi, Sharifullah Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed Ali, Liaqat Alif, Sheikh Mohammad Almazan, Joseph Uy Almustanyir, Sami Alqahtani, Jaber S. Alqasmi, Ibrahim Altaf, Ihsan Ullah Khan Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. Al-Worafi, Yaser Mohammed Aly, Hany Amani, Reza Amu, Hubert Amusa, Ganiyu Adeniyi Andrei, Catalina Liliana Ansar, Adnan Ansariniya, Hossein Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward Arabloo, Jalal Arefnezhad, Reza Arulappan, Judie Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad Ashraf, Tahira Atata, Jamila Abdulhamid Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Atlaw, Daniel Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Aujayeb, Avinash Awan, Asma Tahir Ayatollahi, Haleh Azadnajafabad, Sina Azzam, Ahmed Y. Badawi, Alaa Badiye, Ashish D. Bagherieh, Sara Baig, Atif Amin Bantie, Berihun Bantie Barchitta, Martina Bardhan, Mainak Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn Barone-Adesi, Francesco Batra, Kavita Bayileyegn, Nebiyou Simegnew Behnoush, Amir Hossein Belgaumi, Uzma Iqbal Bemanalizadeh, Maryam Bensenor, Isabela M. Beyene, Kebede A. Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhaskar, Sonu Bhat, Ajay Nagesh Bitaraf, Saeid Bitra, Veera R. Boloor, Archith Bora, Kaustubh Botelho, João Silva Buchbinder, Rachelle Calina, Daniela Cámera, Luis Alberto Carvalho, Andre F. Chan, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chattu, Vijay Kumar Abebe, Endeshaw Chekol Department of Rheumatology and Immunology Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital School of Medicine University of Electronic Science and Technology of China China Department of Medicine & Therapeutics The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Department of Paediatrics The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong School of Pharmacy The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Department of Nursing Woldia University Woldia Ethiopia Department of Orthopedic Surgery Harvard University Boston MA United States Postgraduate Medical Education Harvard University Boston MA United States Maternal Fetal Care Center Harvard University Boston MA United States Department of Health Policy and Oral Epidemiology Harvard University Boston MA United States Division of General Internal Medicine Harvard University Boston MA United States Department of Orthopaedic Surgery Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Biotechnology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran National Nutrition and Food Technology Research Institute Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Immunology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Neurology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Medical Genetics Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Center for Comprehensive Genetic Services Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Cancer Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Economics and Statistics Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Functional Neuro

Background: The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings: In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of −0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = −0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = −0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = −0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = −0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = −0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. Interpretation: The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rh

关键词： Global burden of disease study Immune-mediated inflammatory disease Incidence Trend

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LifeTime and improving European healthcare through cell-based interceptive medicine (vol 587, pg 377, 2020)

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NATURE 2021年第7852期592卷 E8-E8页

作者： Rajewsky, Nikolaus Almouzni, Genevieve Gorski, Stanislaw A. Aerts, Stein Amit, Ido Bertero, Michela G. Bock, Christoph Bredenoord, Annelien L. Cavalli, Giacomo Chiocca, Susanna Clevers, Hans De Strooper, Bart Eggert, Angelika Ellenberg, Jan Fernandez, Xose M. Figlerowicz, Marek Gasser, Susan M. Hubner, Norbert Kjems, Jorgen Knoblich, Jurgen A. Krabbe, Grietje Lichter, Peter Linnarsson, Sten Marine, Jean-Christophe Marioni, John C. Marti-Renom, Marc A. Netea, Mihai G. Nickel, Dorthe Nollmann, Marcelo Novak, Halina R. Parkinson, Helen Piccolo, Stefano Pinheiro, Ines Pombo, Ana Popp, Christian Reik, Wolf Roman-Roman, Sergio Rosenstiel, Philip Schultze, Joachim L. Stegle, Oliver Tanay, Amos Testa, Giuseppe Thanos, Dimitris Theis, Fabian J. Torres-Padilla, Maria-Elena Valencia, Alfonso Vallot, Celine van Oudenaarden, Alexander Vidal, Marie Voet, Thierry Berlin Institute for Medical Systems Biology Max Delbrück Center for Molecular Medicine in the Helmholtz Association Berlin Germany Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin Germany Berlin Institute of Health (BIH) Berlin Germany German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK) Partner Site Berlin Berlin Germany Institute for Biology Humboldt University of Berlin Berlin Germany Cardiovascular and Metabolic Sciences Max Delbrück Center for Molecular Medicine in the Helmholtz Association (MDC) Berlin Germany Department of Pediatric Oncology/Hematology Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin Berlin Germany Institut Curie CNRS PSL Research University Sorbonne Université Nuclear Dynamics Unit Equipe Labellisée Ligue contre le cancer Paris France VIB Center for Brain and Disease Research Leuven Belgium Department of Human Genetics KU Leuven Leuven Belgium Department of Neurosciences KU Leuven Leuven Belgium UK Dementia Research Institute at UCL University College London London UK Wellcome Sanger Institute Wellcome Genome Campus Cambridge UK Department of Immunology Weizmann Institute of Science Rehovot Israel Centre for Genomic Regulation (CRG) Barcelona Institute of Science and Technology Barcelona Spain CNAG-CRG Centre for Genomic Regulation Barcelona Institute of Science and Technology Barcelona Spain Universitat Pompeu Fabra Barcelona Spain ICREA Barcelona Spain CeMM Research Center for Molecular Medicine of the Austrian Academy of Sciences Vienna Austria Department of Laboratory Medicine Medical University of Vienna Vienna Austria Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Rare and Undiagnosed Diseases Vienna Austria Department of Medical Humanities Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care University Medical Center Utrecht Utrecht The Netherlands Institute of Human Genetics UMR 9002 CNRS and University of Montpellier Montpellier France Department of Experimental Oncology IEO European Institute of Oncology IRCCS Milan Italy Department of Oncology and Hemato

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Gene expression imputation across multiple brain regions provides insights into schizophrenia risk (vol 51, pg 659, 2019)

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NATURE GENETICS 2019年第6期51卷 1068-1068页

作者： Huckins, Laura M. Dobbyn, Amanda Ruderfer, Douglas M. Hoffman, Gabriel Wang, Weiqing Pardinas, Antonio F. Rajagopal, Veera M. Als, Thomas D. Nguyen, Hoang T. Girdhar, Kiran Boocock, James Roussos, Panos Fromer, Menachem Kramer, Robin Domenici, Enrico Gamazon, Eric R. Purcell, Shaun Demontis, Ditte Borglum, Anders D. Walters, James T. R. O'Donovan, Michael C. Sullivan, Patrick Owen, Michael J. Devlin, Bernie Sieberts, Solveig K. Cox, Nancy J. Im, Hae Kyung Sklar, Pamela Stahl, Eli A. Pamela Sklar Division of Psychiatric Genomics Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai New York NY USA Department of Genetics and Genomics Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai New York NY USA Department of Psychiatry Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai New York NY USA Icahn Institute for Genomics and Multiscale Biology Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai New York NY USA Vanderbilt University Medical Center Nashville TN USA MRC Centre for Neuropsychiatric Genetics and Genomics Cardiff University Cardiff UK Department of Biomedicine Aarhus University Aarhus Denmark The Lundbeck Foundation Initiative for Integrative Psychiatric Research iPSYCH Denmark Center for Integrative Sequencing Aarhus University Aarhus Denmark Department of Human Genetics David Geffen School of Medicine University of California Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USA Human Brain Collection Core National Institute of Mental Health Bethesda MD USA Laboratory of Neurogenomic Biomarkers Centre for Integrative Biology (CIBIO) University of Trento Trento Italy Clare Hall University of Cambridge Cambridge UK University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Chapel Hill NC USA Karolinska Institutet Stockholm Sweden Department of Psychiatry University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh PA USA Systems Biology Sage Bionetworks Seattle WA USA Section of Genetic Medicine Department of Medicine University of Chicago Chicago IL USA Integrated Technology Research Laboratories Pharmaceutical Research Division Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited Fujisawa Japan Neuropsychiatry Section Department of Psychiatry Perelman School of Medicine University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia PA USA Neuropsychiatric Signaling Program Department of Psychiatry Perelman School of Medicine University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia PA USA Psychiatry JJ Peters Virginia Medical Center Bronx NY USA Department of Neuroscience Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai New York New York NY USA Friedman Brain Institute

Transcriptomic imputation approaches combine eQTL reference panels with large-scale genotype data in order to test associations between disease and gene expression. These genic associations could elucidate signals in complex genome-wide association study (GWAS) loci and may disentangle the role of different tissues in disease development. We used the largest eQTL reference panel for the dorso-lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) to create a set of gene expression predictors and demonstrate their utility. We applied DLPFC and 12 GTEx-brain predictors to 40,299 schizophrenia cases and 65,264 matched controls for a large transcriptomic imputation study of schizophrenia. We identified 413 genic associations across 13 brain regions. Stepwise conditioning identified 67 non-MHC genes, of which 14 did not fall within previous GWAS loci. We identified 36 significantly enriched pathways, including hexosaminidase-A deficiency, and multiple porphyric disorder pathways. We investigated developmental expression patterns among the 67 non-MHC genes and identified specific groups of pre- and postnatal expression.

关键词： Gene expression Genome-wide association studies Schizophrenia Transcriptomics

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Author Correction: The power of genetic diversity in genome-wide association studies of lipids

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Nature 2023年第7965期618卷 E19-E20页

作者： Sarah E Graham Shoa L Clarke Kuan-Han H Wu Stavroula Kanoni Greg J M Zajac Shweta Ramdas Ida Surakka Ioanna Ntalla Sailaja Vedantam Thomas W Winkler Adam E Locke Eirini Marouli Mi Yeong Hwang Sohee Han Akira Narita Ananyo Choudhury Amy R Bentley Kenneth Ekoru Anurag Verma Bhavi Trivedi Hilary C Martin Karen A Hunt Qin Hui Derek Klarin Xiang Zhu Gudmar Thorleifsson Anna Helgadottir Daniel F Gudbjartsson Hilma Holm Isleifur Olafsson Masato Akiyama Saori Sakaue Chikashi Terao Masahiro Kanai Wei Zhou Ben M Brumpton Humaira Rasheed Sanni E Ruotsalainen Aki S Havulinna Yogasudha Veturi QiPing Feng Elisabeth A Rosenthal Todd Lingren Jennifer Allen Pacheco Sarah A Pendergrass Jeffrey Haessler Franco Giulianini Yuki Bradford Jason E Miller Archie Campbell Kuang Lin Iona Y Millwood George Hindy Asif Rasheed Jessica D Faul Wei Zhao David R Weir Constance Turman Hongyan Huang Mariaelisa Graff Anubha Mahajan Michael R Brown Weihua Zhang Ketian Yu Ellen M Schmidt Anita Pandit Stefan Gustafsson Xianyong Yin Jian'an Luan Jing-Hua Zhao Fumihiko Matsuda Hye-Mi Jang Kyungheon Yoon Carolina Medina-Gomez Achilleas Pitsillides Jouke Jan Hottenga Gonneke Willemsen Andrew R Wood Yingji Ji Zishan Gao Simon Haworth Ruth E Mitchell Jin Fang Chai Mette Aadahl Jie Yao Ani Manichaikul Helen R Warren Julia Ramirez Jette Bork-Jensen Line L Kårhus Anuj Goel Maria Sabater-Lleal Raymond Noordam Carlo Sidore Edoardo Fiorillo Aaron F McDaid Pedro Marques-Vidal Matthias Wielscher Stella Trompet Naveed Sattar Line T Møllehave Betina H Thuesen Matthias Munz Lingyao Zeng Jianfeng Huang Bin Yang Alaitz Poveda Azra Kurbasic Claudia Lamina Lukas Forer Markus Scholz Tessel E Galesloot Jonathan P Bradfield E Warwick Daw Joseph M Zmuda Jonathan S Mitchell Christian Fuchsberger Henry Christensen Jennifer A Brody Mary F Feitosa Mary K Wojczynski Michael Preuss Massimo Mangino Paraskevi Christofidou Niek Verweij Jan W Benjamins Jorgen Engmann Rachel L Kember Roderick C Slieker Ken Sin Lo Nuno R Zilhao Phuong Le Marcus E Kleber Graciela E Delgado Shaofeng Huo Dai Department of Internal Medicine Division of Cardiology University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USA. VA Palo Alto Health Care System Palo Alto CA USA. Department of Medicine Division of Cardiovascular Medicine Stanford University School of Medicine Stanford CA USA. Department of Computational Medicine and Bioinformatics University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USA. William Harvey Research Institute Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry Queen Mary University of London London UK. Department of Biostatistics and Center for Statistics Genetics University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USA. Department of Genetics Perelman School of Medicine University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia PA USA. Clinical Pharmacology William Harvey Research Institute Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry Queen Mary University of London London UK. Endocrinology Boston Children's Hospital Boston MA USA. Medical and Population Genetics Broad Institute Cambridge MA USA. Department of Genetic Epidemiology University of Regensburg Regensburg Germany. McDonnell Genome Institute and Department of Medicine Washington University St Louis MO USA. Department of Precision Medicine Division of Genome Science National Institute of Health Cheongju-si South Korea. Tohoku Medical Megabank Organization Tohoku University Sendai Japan. Sydney Brenner Institute for Molecular Bioscience Faculty of Health Sciences University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg South Africa. Center for Research on Genomics and Global Health National Human Genome Research Institute National Institutes of Health Bethesda MD USA. Blizard Institute Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry Queen Mary University of London London UK. Wellcome Sanger Institute Hinxton UK. Department of Epidemiology Emory University Rollins School of Public Health Atlanta GA USA. Atlanta VA Health Care System Decatur GA USA. Malcolm Randall VA Medical Center Gainesville FL USA. Division of Vascular Sur

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Worldwide Soundscapes: A Synthesis of Passive Acoustic Monitoring Across Realms

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Global Ecology and Biogeography 2025年第5期34卷

作者： Kevin F. A. Darras Rodney A. Rountree Steven L. Van Wilgenburg Anna F. Cord Frederik Pitz Youfang Chen Lijun Dong Agnès Rocquencourt Camille Desjonquères Patrick Mauritz Diaz Tzu-Hao Lin Théophile Turco Louise Emmerson Tom Bradfer-Lawrence Amandine Gasc Sarah Marley Marcus Salton Laura Schillé Paul J. Wensveen Shih-Hung Wu Adriana C. Acero-Murcia Orlando Acevedo-Charry Matyáš Adam Jacopo Aguzzi Irmak Akoglu M. Clara P. Amorim Mina Anders Michel André Alexandre Antonelli Leandro Aparecido Do Nascimento Giulliana Appel Stephanie Archer Christos Astaras Andrey Atemasov Jamieson Atkinson Joël Attia Emanuel Baltag Luc Barbaro Fritjof Basan Carly Batist Julio Ernesto Baumgarten Just T. Bayle Sempere Kristen Bellisario Asaf Ben David Oded Berger-Tal Frédéric Bertucci Matthew G. Betts Iqbal S. Bhalla Thiago Bicudo Marta Bolgan Sara Bombaci Gerard Bota Martin Boullhesen Robert A. Briers Susannah Buchan Michal Budka Katie Burchard Giuseppa Buscaino Alice Calvente Marconi Campos-Cerqueira Maria Isabel Carvalho Gonçalves Maria Ceraulo Maite Cerezo-Araujo Gunnar Cerwén Adams A. Chaskda Maria Chistopolova Christopher W. Clark Kieran D. Cox Benjamin Cretois Chapin Czarnecki Luis P. da Silva Wigna da Silva Laurence H. De Clippele David de la Haye Ana Silvia de Oliveira Tissiani Devin de Zwaan M. Eugenia Degano Jessica Deichmann Joaquin del Rio Christian Devenish Ricardo Díaz-Delgado Pedro Diniz Dorgival Diógenes Oliveira-Júnior Thiago Dorigo Saskia Dröge Marina Duarte Adam Duarte Kerry Dunleavy Robert Dziak Simon Elise Hiroto Enari Haruka S. Enari Florence Erbs Britas Klemens Eriksson Pınar Ertör-Akyazi Nina C. Ferrari Luane Ferreira Abram B. Fleishman Paulo J. Fonseca Bárbara Freitas Nicholas R. Friedman Jérémy S. P. Froidevaux Svetlana Gogoleva Carolina Gonzaga José Miguel González Correa Eben Goodale Benjamin Gottesman Ingo Grass Jack Greenhalgh Jocelyn Gregoire Samuel Haché Jonas Hagge William Halliday Antonia Hammer Tara Hanf-Dressler Sylvain Haupert Samara Haver Becky Heath Daniel Hending Jose Hernandez-Blanco Dennis Higgs EFNO ECODIV INRAE Domaine des Barres Nogent-sur-Vernisson France Sustainable Agricultural Systems & Engineering Lab School of Engineering Westlake University Hangzhou Zhejiang China Chair of Computational Landscape Ecology Faculty of Environmental Sciences Dresden University of Technology Dresden Germany Biology Department University of Victoria Victoria British Columbia Canada The Fish Listener Waguoit Massachusetts USA Terrestrial Unit Prairie Region Canadian Wildlife Service Environment & Climate Change Canada Prairie & Northern Wildlife Research Centre Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada Agro-ecological Modeling Group Faculty of Agriculture University of Bonn Bonn Germany Marine Mammal and Marine Bioacoustics Laboratory Department of Deep Sea Science Institute of Deep-sea Science and Engineering Chinese Academy of Sciences Sanya Hainan China Institut de Systématique Évolution Biodiversité Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle Paris France Université Grenoble Alpes Université Savoie Mont Blanc CNRS LECA Grenoble France Climate Change and Biodiversity Hanns R. Neumann Stiftung Indonesia Muaradua Indonesia Biodiversity Research Center Academia Sinica Nankang Taipei Taiwan ENES Bioacoustics Research Laboratory University of Saint-Etienne CRNL CNRS UMR 5292 Inserm UMR_S 1028 Saint-Etienne France Australian Antarctic Division Science Branch Department of Climate Change Energy Environment and Water Channel Highway Kingston Tasmania Australia Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Stirling Stirling Scotland Centre for Conservation Science RSPB Edinburgh UK IMBE Aix Marseille Univ Avignon Univ CNRS IRD Aix-en-Provence France Scotland's Rural College Craibstone Estate Aberdeen UK BIOGECO INRAE University of Bordeaux Cestas France Westman Islands Research Centre University of Iceland Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Qigu Research Center Taiwan Biodiversity Research Institute Nantou County Taiwan Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia

Aim The urgency for remote, reliable and scalable biodiversity monitoring amidst mounting human pressures on ecosystems has sparked worldwide interest in Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM), which can track life underwater and on land. However, we lack a unified methodology to report this sampling effort and a comprehensive overview of PAM coverage to gauge its potential as a global research and monitoring tool. To address this gap, we created the Worldwide Soundscapes project, a collaborative network and growing database comprising metadata from 416 datasets across all realms (terrestrial, marine, freshwater and subterranean). Location Worldwide, 12,343 sites, all ecosystem types. Time Period 1991 to present. Major Taxa Studied All soniferous taxa. Methods We synthesise sampling coverage across spatial, temporal and ecological scales using metadata describing sampling locations, deployment schedules, focal taxa and audio recording parameters. We explore global trends in biological, anthropogenic and geophysical sounds based on 168 selected recordings from 12 ecosystems across all realms. Results Terrestrial sampling is spatially denser (46 sites per million square kilometre—Mkm 2 ) than aquatic sampling (0.3 and 1.8 sites/Mkm 2 in oceans and fresh water) with only two subterranean datasets. Although diel and lunar cycles are well sampled across realms, only marine datasets (55%) comprehensively sample all seasons. Across the 12 ecosystems selected for exploring global acoustic trends, biological sounds showed contrasting diel patterns across ecosystems, declined with distance from the Equator, and were negatively correlated with anthropogenic sounds. Main Conclusions PAM can inform macroecological studies as well as global conservation and phenology syntheses, but representation can be improved by expanding terrestrial taxonomic scope, sampling coverage in the high seas and subterranean ecosystems, and spatio-temporal replication in freshwater habitats. Overall, this

关键词： ARU automated sound recorder biodiversity conservation biology ecoacoustics IUCN GET realm Passive Acoustic Monitoring phenology soundscape ecology

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Characterising acute and chronic care needs: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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Nature communications 2025年第1期16卷 4235-4235页

作者： Cecilia Anza-Ramirez J. Jaime Miranda Benedetta Armocida Jorge César Correia Harriette Gillian Christine Van Spall David Beran Amirali Aali Kalkidan Hassen Abate Semagn Mekonnen Abate Cristiana Abbafati Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari Zahra Aryan Sina Azadnajafabad Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari Mohammad Keykhaei Javad Khanali Sara Momtazmanesh Fateme Montazeri Shayan Rahmani Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi Nazila Rezaei Negar Rezaei Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam Ali-Asghar Kolahi Ali Nikoobar Hedayat Abbastabar Ahmed M. Abdel-Azeem Michael Abdelmasseh Juan Sanabria Sherief Abd-Elsalam Ahmed Abdelwahab Gholamreza Abdoli Mohammad Abdollahi Meriem Abdoun Deldar Morad Abdulah Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah Ame Mehadi Abdurehman Getachew Abebe Aidin Abedi Chirag P. Doshi Vida Abedi Hassan Abidi Richard Gyan Aboagye Hassan Abolhassani Nima Rezaei Lucas Guimarães Abreu Michael R. M. Abrigo Yonas Derso Abtew Hiwa Abubaker Ali Eman Abu-Gharbieh Hiba Jawdat Barqawi Rabih Halwani Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad Iman M. Talaat Ahmed Abu-Zaid Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi Juan Manuel Acuna Denberu Eshetie Adane Tigist Demssew Adane Isaac Yeboah Addo Giovanni Addolorato Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Victor Adekanmbi Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa Olatunji O. Adetokunboh Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi Muhammad Sohail Afzal Saira Afzal Gina Agarwal Prerna Agarwal Pradyumna Agasthi Anurag Agrawal Marcela Agudelo-Botero Adolfo Martinez-Valle Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Aqeel Ahmad Sajjad Ahmad Sohail Ahmad Tauseef Ahmad Ali Ahmadi Siamak Sabour Keivan Ahmadi Sanjay Basu Sepideh Ahmadi Ali Ahmed Shaun Wen Huey Lee Ayman Ahmed Haroon Ahmed Jivan Qasim Ahmed Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya Yahya Luai A. Ahmed Iffat Elbarazi Syed Mahboob Shah Janardhana P. Aithala Marjan Ajami Budi Aji Hossein Akbarialiabad Yibeltal Akelew Meisam Akhlaghdoust Elham Jamshidi Addis Aklilu Azene Tesfaye Melat Woldemariam Maxwell Ak CRONICAS Center of Excellence in Chronic Diseases Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia Lima Peru School of Medicine Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia Lima Peru Sydney School of Public Health Faculty of Medicine and Health University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine London UK Division of Tropical and Humanitarian Medicine University of Geneva Geneva Switzerland Department of Cardiovascular Endocrine-metabolic Diseases and Aging Istituto Superiore di Sanità Rome Italy Division of Endocrinology Diabetology Nutrition and Therapeutic Patient Education Department of Medicine Geneva University Hospitals Geneva Switzerland Department of Medicine and Department of Health Research Evidence and Impact McMaster University Hamilton ON Canada Research Institute of St. Joe’s Hamilton ON Canada Population Health Research Institute Hamilton Canada Geneva University Hospitals Geneva Switzerland Faculty of Medicine Mashhad University of Medical Sciences Mashhad Iran Department of Nutrition and Dietetics Jimma University Jimma Ethiopia Anesthesiology Department Dilla University Addis Ababa Ethiopia Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Brigham and Women’s Hospital Harvard University Boston MA USA Students’ Scientific Research Center (SSRC) Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran School of Medicine Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran School of Medicine Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Chapter of Addiction Medicine University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia Advanced Diagnostic and Intervent

Chronic care manages long-term, progressive conditions, while acute care addresses short-term conditions. Chronic conditions increasingly strain health systems, which are often unprepared for these demands. This study examines the burden of conditions requiring acute versus chronic care, including sequelae. Conditions and sequelae from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 were classified into acute or chronic care categories. Data were analysed by age, sex, and socio-demographic index, presenting total numbers and contributions to burden metrics such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years Lived with Disability (YLD), and Years of Life Lost (YLL). Approximately 68% of DALYs were attributed to chronic care, while 27% were due to acute care. Chronic care needs increased with age, representing 86% of YLDs and 71% of YLLs, and accounting for 93% of YLDs from sequelae. These findings highlight that chronic care needs far exceed acute care needs globally, necessitating health systems to adapt accordingly. © 2025. The Author(s).

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Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study

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The Lancet HIV 2021年第6期8卷 e363-e375页

作者： Sartorius, Benn VanderHeide, John D. Yang, Mingyou Goosmann, Erik A. Hon, Julia Haeuser, Emily Cork, Michael A. Perkins, Samantha Jahagirdar, Deepa Schaeffer, Lauren E. Serfes, Audrey L. LeGrand, Kate E. Abbastabar, Hedayat Abebo, Zeleke Hailemariam Abosetugn, Akine Eshete Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou Adebayo, Oladimeji M. Adegbosin, Adeyinka Emmanuel Adekanmbi, Victor Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Adeyinka, Daniel Adedayo Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Akalu, Yonas Akinyemi, Oluwaseun Oladapo Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Aklilu, Addis Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet Alahdab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Noore Alamneh, Alehegn Aderaw Alanzi, Turki M. Alemu, Biresaw Wassihun Alhassan, Robert Kaba Ali, Tilahun Alipour, Vahid Amini, Saeed Ancuceanu, Robert Ansari, Fereshteh Anteneh, Zelalem Alamrew Anvari, Davood Anwer, Razique Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw Arabloo, Jalal Asemahagn, Mulusew A. Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad Asmare, Wondwossen Niguse Atnafu, Desta Debalkie Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atreya, Alok Ausloos, Marcel Awedew, Atalel Fentahun Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayanore, Martin Amogre Aynalem, Yared Asmare Ayza, Muluken Altaye Azari, Samad Azene, Zelalem Nigussie Babar, Zaheer-Ud-Din Baig, Atif Amin Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar Banach, Maciej Bärnighausen, Till Winfried Basu, Sanjay Bayati, Mohsen Bedi, Neeraj Bekuma, Tariku Tesfaye Bezabhe, Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. Bibi, Sadia Bikbov, Boris Birhan, Tsegaye Adane Bitew, Zebenay Workneh Bockarie, Moses John Boloor, Archith Brady, Oliver J. Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Burugina Nagaraja, Sharath Butt, Zahid A. Cárdenas, Rosario Carvalho, Felix Charan, Jaykaran Chatterjee, Souranshu Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chu, Dinh-Toi Cook, Aubrey J. Cormier, Natalie Maria Cowden, Richard G. Culquichicon, Carlos Dagnew, Baye Dahlawi, Saad M.A. D Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health Nuffield Department of Medicine University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Malaria Atlas Project University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom The George Institute for Global Health University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Global Health University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Insights Program Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Seattle WA United States Global Programs Medical Teams International Seattle WA United States Department of Pediatric Newborn Medicine Brigham and Women's Hospital Boston MA United States Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Multiple Sclerosis Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Pediatric Chronic Kidney Disease Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Environmental Health Engineering Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Metabolomics and Genomics Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Public Health Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia College of Medicine and Health Science Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia Department of Nursing Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia Department of Biomedical Sciences Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia Department of Public Health Debre Berhan University Debre Brehan

Background: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique,

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