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Cost optimal scenarios of a future highly renewable European electricity system:Exploring the influence of weather data, cost parameters and policy constraints

arXiv

引用

arXiv 2018年

作者： Schlachtberger, D.P. Brown, T. Schäfer, M. Schramm, S. Greiner, M. Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies Frankfurt am Main60438 Germany Department of Engineering Aarhus University Aarhus C8000 Denmark Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen76344 Germany University of Freiburg Freiburg79110 Germany

Cost optimal scenarios derived from models of a highly renewable electricity system depend on the specific input data, cost assumptions and system constraints. Here this influence is studied using a techno-economic optimisation model for a networked system of 30 European countries, taking into account the capacity investment and operation of wind, solar, hydroelectricity, natural gas power generation, transmission, and different storage options. A considerable robustness of total system costs to the input weather data and to moderate changes in the cost assumptions is observed. Flat directions in the optimisation landscape around cost-optimal configurations often allow system planners to choose between different technology options without a significant increase in total costs, for instance by replacing onshore with offshore wind power capacity in case of public acceptance issues. Exploring a range of carbon dioxide emission limits shows that for scenarios with moderate transmission expansion, a reduction of around 57% compared to 1990 levels is already cost optimal. For stricter carbon dioxide limits, power generated from gas turbines is at first replaced by generation from increasing renewable capacities. Non-hydro storage capacities are only built for low-emission scenarios, in order to provide the necessary flexibility to meet peaks in the residual load. Copyright © 2018, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Carbon dioxide

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On the Aubin property of solution maps to parameterized variational systems with implicit constraints

arXiv

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arXiv 2018年

作者： Gfrerer, Helmut Outrata, Jirí V. Institute of Computational Mathematics Johannes Kepler University Linz LinzA-4040 Austria Institute of Information Theory and Automation Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Prague18208 Czech Republic Centre for Informatics and Applied Optimization Federation University of Australia POB 663 BallaratVic 3350 Australia

In the paper a new sufficient condition for the Aubin property to a class of parameterized variational systems is derived. In these systems the constraints depend both on the parameter as well as on the decision variable itself and they include, e.g., parameterdependent quasi-variational inequalities and implicit complementarity problems. The result is based on a general condition ensuring the Aubin property of implicitly defined multifunctions which employs the recently introduced notion of the directional limiting coderivative. Our final condition can be verified, however, without an explicit computation of these coderivatives. The procedure is illustrated by an example. Copyright © 2018, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Parameterization

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Contextual Modeling of Engineering Structures Using Organized Content

Contextual Modeling of Engineering Structures Using Organize...

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IEEE International Symposium on Intelligent Systems and informatics

作者： Laszlo Horvath Alajos Meszaros Institute of Applied Mathematics and Doctoral School of Applied Informatics and Applied Mathematics Óbuda University Budapest Hungary Institute of Information Engineering Automation and Mathematics Slovak University of Technology Bratislava Slowakia

This paper introduces recent research results in model representation of knowledge, former decision and experience content which is applied at driving of entities in system level model of engineering structures. Work for these results is part of a long-term research program to fulfill new demands against driving content by developing strategies of engineering model. The most important role of driving model entities by content is to replace the troublesome direct human definition. This paper first tracks milestones in history of developing strategies for engineering model to conclude their main impacts on current virtual engineering technology. Following this, new contributions are discussed including integration of organized information content in engineering model, modified concept of model for information content, and substructures on levels of information content model. Finally, implementation of information content model in leading industrial engineering model structures is outlined.

关键词： System level model of engineering structure Driving information content for engineering model entities Knowledge driven self-adaptive engineering model

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Synergies of sector coupling and transmission reinforcement in a cost-optimised, highly renewable european energy system

arXiv

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arXiv 2018年

作者： Brown, T. Schlachtberger, D. Kies, A. Schramm, S. Greiner, M. Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz i 76344 Eggenstein-Levpoldshafen Germany Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies Ruih-Moufang-Strafie I. Frankfurt Am Main60438 Germany Department of Engineering Aarhus University Aar Hus C8000 Denmark

There are two competing concepts in the literature for the integration of high shares of renewable energy: The coupling of electricity to other energy sectors, such as transport and heating, and the reinforcement of continent-wide transmission networks. In this paper both cross-sector and cross-border integration are considered in the model PyPSA-Eur-Sec-30. the first open, spatially-resolved. temporally-resolved and sector-coupled energy model of Europe. Using a simplified network with one node per country, the cost-optimal system is calculated for a 95% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions compared to 1990. incorporating electricity, transport and heat demand. Flexibility from battery electric vehicles (BEV), power-to-gas units (P2G) and long-term thermal energy storage (LTES) make a significant contribution to the smoothing of variability from wind and solar and to the reduction of total system costs. The cost-minimising integration of BEV pairs well with the daily variations of solar power, while P2G and LTES balance the synoptic and seasonal variations of demand and renewables. In all scenarios, an expansion of cross-border transmission reduces system costs, but the more tightly the energy sectors are coupled, the weaker the benefit of transmission reinforcement becomes. Copyright © 2018, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Carbon dioxide

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The impact of climate change on a cost-optimal highly renewable European electricity network

arXiv

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arXiv 2018年

作者： Schlott, Markus Kies, Alexander Brown, Tom Schramm, Stefan Greiner, Martin Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies Goethe University Frankfurt Ruth-Moufang-Str. 1 Frankfurt am Main60438 Germany Department of Engineering Aarhus University Inge Lehmans Gade 10 Aarhus C8000 Denmark Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen76344 Germany

We use three ensemble members of the EURO-CORDEX project and their data on surface wind speeds, solar irradiation as well as water runoff with a spatial resolution of 12 km and a temporal resolution of 3 hours under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (associated with a strong climate change and a temperature increase of 2.6 to 4.8 °C until the end of the century) until 2100 to investigate the impact of climate change on wind, solar and hydro resources and consequently on a highly renewable and cost-optimal European power system. The weather data is transformed into power, different aspects such as capacity factors and correlation lengths are investigated and the resulting implications for the European power system are discussed. In addition, we compare a 30-node model of Europe with historical and climate change-affected data, where investments in generation, transmission and storage facilities are optimised. Differences in capacity factors among European countries are more strongly emphasized at the end of the century compared to historic data. This results in a significantly increased photovoltaic share in the cost-optimal power system. In addition, annual hydro inflow patterns of major hydro producers change considerably. System costs increase by 5% until the end of the century and the impact of climate change on these costs is of similar magnitude as differences between the ensemble members. The results show that including climate affected-weather data in power system simulations of the future has an observeable effect. Copyright © 2018, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Wind power

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Clustering based on the principle of finding centers and robust averaging functions of aggregation

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Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2019年第5期1368卷

作者： Z M Shibzukhov M A Kazakov Institute of Mathematics and Informatics of Moscow Pedagogical State University Krasnoprudnaya str. 4 Moscow Russia 119435 Institute of Applied Mathematics and Automation Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Centre Russian Academy of Sciences Shortanova str. 89a Nalchik Russia 123610

A new approach to robust clustering based on the search for cluster centers is proposed. It is based on minimizing the robust estimates of the averages and the sum of the functions of pseudo-distances to cluster centers. An algorithm of iterative reweighing type for finding cluster centres is proposed. Examples are given showing the stability of the method with respect to a large number of outliers.

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Preface

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

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Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 2019年 811卷 v-vi页

作者： Chakraborty, Mohuya Chakrabarti, Satyajit Balas, Valentina Emilia Mandal, J.K. Department of Information Technology Institute of Engineering and Management Kolkata India Institute of Engineering and Management Kolkata India Department of Automation and Applied Informatics Aurel Vlaicu University of Arad Arad Romania Department of Computer Science and Engineering University of Kalyani KalyaniWest Bengal India

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PLC control of casting die preheating process as distributed parameter system

PLC control of casting die preheating process as distributed...

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International Conference on Process Control (PC)

作者： Lukáš Bartalský Cyril Belavý Michal Bartko Gabriel Hulkó Milan Kubiš Institute of Automation Measurement and Applied Informatics Faculty of Mechanical Engineering Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava Measurement and Applied Informatics Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava

ISBN: (纸本)9781538640128

In the paper a problem of casting die preheating control is solved. Concept of the control is designed based on distributed parameters systems. The design of the control structures are created within simulation studies, afterwards are connected into co-simulation regime network to tune the control parameters and then applied to control of preheating using PLC.

关键词： Casting Temperature Steady-state Heating systems Mathematical model Temperature measurement

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A low-cost non-invasive slag detection system for continuous casting

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IFAC-PapersOnLine 2017年第1期50卷 438-445页

作者： Takács G. Ondrejkovič K. Hulkó G. Institute of Automation Measurement and Applied Informatics Faculty of Mechanical Engineering Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava Nám. slobody 17 Bratislava 812 31 Slovakia ŽP Research and Development Centre Kolkáreň 35 Podbrezová 976 81 Slovakia

The majority of steel produced today is made by the technology known in the steel making industry as continuous casting. Deciding when to stop the flow of molten steel from the ladle is not trivial, since terminating the process too early affects yield negatively, while closing the outflow valve too late lets slag enter the casting process. There is a variety of automatic slag detection systems available now, but numerous casting operations still rely on the decision of a human operator. In this paper, we propose a cost-effective non-invasive slag detection system that is based on the vibration signal measured during the casting procedure. In this method, the vibration acceleration data is analyzed by a cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart in real time, providing a violation signal that can be used to close the ladle outflow valve. The proposed algorithm is implemented in an embedded microcontroller unit and is verified through a simulation study and laboratory experiments. These trials suggest that the technique may perform similarly to the human operator, however, just as in the case of the human operator, the disadvantage is that it only identifies the change when a small amount of slag already enters the tundish. Its advantage lies in its simplicity, low-cost, portable and non-invasive nature; possibly aiding the decision of the operator or, it may be used to create a completely automated ladle outflow valve closing system. © 2017

关键词： continuous casting cumulative sum ladle outflow signal processing slag detection system statistical analysis steel industry steel manufacture time series analysis vibration measurement

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Real-time State Estimation for an Adaptive Vibration Energy Harvesting System

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IFAC-PapersOnLine 2016年第25期49卷 127-132页

作者： Abdollahpouri, Mohammad Gulan, Martin Takács, Gergely Rohal'-Ilkiv, Boris Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava Faculty of Mechanical Engineering Institute of Automation Measurement and Applied Informatics Slovakia

Moving horizon estimation (MHE) has proven to be an efficient optimization-based technique to address the problem of joint state and parameter estimation with nonlinearities in system dynamics and constraints. This work aims to propose the application of MHE for a specific nonlinear vibration setup, often used to analyze energy harvesting concepts in the laboratory environment. Using a simulated energy harvesting scenario exhibiting a strongly nonlinear behavior, we focus on the estimation of unmeasured system states and a time-varying structural parameter that can be utilized to maximize the harvested energy, or in structural health monitoring. To exploit the recent algorithmic developments in embedded optimization, we implement the proposed scheme on a low-cost embedded computing platform using automatic code generation. A hardware-in-the-loop setup is used in order to investigate the performance of the real-time MHE scheme, and to quantify the associated computational effort. The results demonstrated in this paper, suggest the real-time feasibility of MHE, and certain practical advantages over a standard Kalman filtering in a vibration energy harvesting system. © 2016

关键词： Parameter estimation Automatic programming Cantilever beams Embedded systems Energy harvesting Structural health monitoring Vibration analysis Automatic code generations Duffing oscillator Embedded optimizations Moving horizon estimation Optimization based techniques State and parameter estimations Time varying structural parameters Vibration energy harvesting

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