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arXiv 2023年

作者： Lüdtke, Stefan Pierce, Maria E. Institute for Visual & Analytic Computing University of Rostock Germany Thünen Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries Rostock Germany

The accurate assessment of fish stocks is crucial for sustainable fisheries management. However, existing statistical stock assessment models can have low forecast performance of relevant stock parameters like recruitment or spawning stock biomass, especially in ecosystems that are changing due to global warming and other anthropogenic stressors. In this paper, we investigate the use of machine learning models to improve the estimation and forecast of such stock parameters. We propose a hybrid model that combines classical statistical stock assessment models with supervised ML, specifically gradient boosted trees. Our hybrid model leverages the initial estimate provided by the classical model and uses the ML model to make a post-hoc correction to improve accuracy. We experiment with five different stocks and find that the forecast accuracy of recruitment and spawning stock biomass improves considerably in most cases. © 2023, CC BY.

关键词： Global warming

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Validation Without Data - Formalizing Stylized Facts Of Time Series

Validation Without Data - Formalizing Stylized Facts Of Time...

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Simulation Winter Conference

作者： Pia Wilsdorf Marian Zuska Philipp Andelfinger Adelinde M. Uhrmacher Florian Peters Institute for Visual and Analytic Computing University of Rostock Rostock Germany Department of Economics University of Rostock Rostock Germany

A stylized fact is a simplified presentation of an empirical finding. When modeling and simulating complex systems and real data are sparse, stylized facts have become a key instrument for building trust in a model as they represent important requirements regarding the model’s behavior. However, automatically validating stylized facts has remained limited as they are usually expressed in natural language. Therefore, we develop a formal language with a custom syntax and tailored predicates allowing modelers to unambiguously and succinctly describe important (temporal) characteristics of simulation traces or relationships between multiple traces via statistical tests. The proposed formal language is able to express numerous facts from the literature in different application domains, as well as to automatically check stylized facts. If stylized facts are defined at the beginning of a simulation study, formally expressing and checking them can streamline and guide the development of simulation models and their successive revisions.

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Human activity recognition using attribute-based neural networks and context information

arXiv

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arXiv 2021年

作者： Lüdtke, Stefan Rueda, Fernando Moya Ahmed, Waqas Fink, Gernot A. Kirste, Thomas Institute of Visual & Analytic Computing University of Rostock Germany Department of Computer Science TU Dortmund University Germany

We consider human activity recognition (HAR) from wearable sensor data in manual-work processes, like warehouse order-picking. Such structured domains can often be partitioned into distinct process steps, e.g., packaging or transporting. Each process step can have a different prior distribution over activity classes, e.g., standing or walking, and different system dynamics. Here, we show how such context information can be integrated systematically into a deep neural network-based HAR system. Specifically, we propose a hybrid architecture that combines a deep neural network—that estimates high-level movement descriptors, attributes, from the raw-sensor data—and a shallow classifier, which predicts activity classes from the estimated attributes and (optional) context information, like the currently executed process step. We empirically show that our proposed architecture increases HAR performance, compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, we show that HAR performance can be further increased when information about process steps is incorporated, even when that information is only partially correct. © 2021, CC BY.

关键词： Deep neural networks

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A Tool for Automated Generation of Domain Specific Symbolic Models From Texts

A Tool for Automated Generation of Domain Specific Symbolic ...

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IEEE Annual Conference on Pervasive computing and Communications Workshops (PerCom)

作者： Teodor Stoev Tomasz Sosnowski Kristina Yordanova Institute for Data Science University of Greifswald Greifswald Germany Institute for Visual and Analytic Computing University of Rostock Rostock Germany

Recent studies in the area of pervasive computing have shown that it is possible to create systems which combine symbolic models incorporating domain knowledge and sensor observations in order to perform tasks such as activity recog-nition in health monitoring use-cases. Creating symbolic models manually can, however, be a very time consuming endeavour and in some cases it also requires experts in the domain of interest. In this work, we showcase a tool for automatic generation of symbolic models from texts written in natural language. The output of our tool is a model description in Planning Domain Definition Language (PDDL). We concentrate on instructional texts in the cooking domain (cooking recipes), but our tool can be also applied in other areas of interest.

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Validation Without Data - Formalizing Stylized Facts of Time Series 23

Validation Without Data - Formalizing Stylized Facts of Time...

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Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference

ISBN: (纸本)9798350369663

A stylized fact is a simplified presentation of an empirical finding. When modeling and simulating complex systems and real data are sparse, stylized facts have become a key instrument for building trust in a model as they represent important requirements regarding the model's behavior. However, automatically validating stylized facts has remained limited as they are usually expressed in natural language. Therefore, we develop a formal language with a custom syntax and tailored predicates allowing modelers to unambiguously and succinctly describe important (temporal) characteristics of simulation traces or relationships between multiple traces via statistical tests. The proposed formal language is able to express numerous facts from the literature in different application domains, as well as to automatically check stylized facts. If stylized facts are defined at the beginning of a simulation study, formally expressing and checking them can streamline and guide the development of simulation models and their successive revisions.

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Simulation Experiment Schemas –Beyond Tools and Simulation Approaches

Simulation Experiment Schemas –Beyond Tools and Simulation ...

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Simulation Winter Conference

作者： Pia Wilsdorf Marcus Dombrowsky Adelinde M. Uhrmacher Julius Zimmermann Ursula van Rienen Institute for Visual and Analytic Computing University of Rostock Rostock GERMANY Institute of General Electrical Engineering University of Rostock Rostock GERMANY

ISBN: (数字)9781728132839

ISBN: (纸本)9781728120522

Simulation studies make use of various types of simulation experiments. For users, specifying these experiments is a demanding task since the specification depends on the experiment type and the idiosyncrasies of the used tools. Thus, we present an experiment generation procedure that guides users through the specification process, and abstracts away from the concrete execution environment. This abstraction is achieved by (1) developing schemas that define the properties of simulation experiments and dependencies between them, (2) specifying a mapping between schema properties and template fragments in the specification language of a target backend. We develop schema, template fragments, and mappings for stochastic discrete-event simulation, and show how the concepts can be transported to a different domain of modeling and simulation. Further, we expand the developed "simple" experiment schemas by a schema for experiment designs, and generate executable sensitivity analysis experiments, thereby demonstrating versatility and composability of our approach.

关键词： Computational modeling analytical models Task analysis Data models Graphical user interfaces Tools Rendering (computer graphics)

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Automatic reuse, adaption, and execution of simulation experiments via provenance patterns

arXiv

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arXiv 2021年

作者： Wilsdorf, Pia Wolpers, Anja Hilton, Jason Haack, Fiete Uhrmacher, Adelinde M. Institute for Visual and Analytic Computing University of Rostock Germany Department of Social Statistics and Demography University of Southampton United Kingdom

Simulation experiments are typically conducted repeatedly during the model development process, for example, to re-validate if a behavioral property still holds after several model changes. Approaches for automatically reusing and generating simulation experiments can support modelers in conducting simulation studies in a more systematic and effective manner. They rely on explicit experiment specifications and, so far, on user interaction for initiating the reuse. Thereby, they are constrained to support the reuse of simulation experiments in a specific setting. Our approach now goes one step further by automatically identifying and adapting the experiments to be reused for a variety of scenarios. To achieve this, we exploit provenance graphs of simulation studies, which provide valuable information about the previous modeling and experimenting activities, and contain meta-information about the different entities that were used or produced during the simulation study. We define provenance patterns and associate them with a semantics, which allows us to interpret the different activities, and construct transformation rules for provenance graphs. Our approach is implemented in a Reuse and Adapt framework for Simulation Experiments (RASE) which can interface with various modeling and simulation tools. In the case studies, we demonstrate the utility of our framework for a) the repeated sensitivity analysis of an agent-based model of migration routes, and b) the cross-validation of two models of a cell signaling pathway. Copyright © 2021, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Sensitivity analysis

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eDEM-CONNECT: An Ontology-Based Chatbot for Family Caregivers of People with Dementia 12th

eDEM-CONNECT: An Ontology-Based Chatbot for Family Caregive...

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12th International Conference on Mobile Communication and Healthcare, MobiHealth 2023

作者： Boiting, Maurice Tschorn, Niklas Suravee, Sumaiya Yordanova, Kristina Halek, Margareta Jagoda, Franziska A. Lüdtke, Stefan Burmann, Anja Fraunhofer Institute for Software and Systems Engineering ISST Dortmund44147 Germany Institute for Data Science Universität Greifswald Greifswald17489 Germany School of Nursing Science Faculty of Health Universiät Witten/Herdecke Witten58453 Germany Institute for Visual and Analytic Computing Universät Rostock Rostock18059 Germany

ISBN: (纸本)9783031606649

Home care of people with dementia (PwD) is mainly organized and carried out by non-professional family caregivers, who struggle to interpret the needs of PwD correctly and are confronted with the challenging behavior of their relatives. Although support services for family caregivers are widespread in Germany, they are rarely used due to the fact that information is poorly organized and relatives are faced with a flood of disorganized, outdated, and confusing content. Due to the technical development of chatbot technologies (ChatGPT), chatbots gain more and more relevance. Based on the new technological possibilities, we developed an online communication and service platform with an integrated chatbot within the eDEM-CONNECT project, with the aim of making structured and easily understandable information accessible for family caregivers. This work focuses on the development of a chatbot pipeline that has broad domain knowledge through a provided ontology on the topic of agitation of PwD. This allows the chatbot to provide relevant and peer-reviewed information to family members. In our approach, a patient history is first taken based on several diagnostic questions so that relevant information can be output in a later step. For this purpose, we demonstrate that agitations in natural language can be correctly recognized by the used BERT model and that our developed chatbot is able to select further diagnostic questions based on the predictions of a Markov logic network. © ICST institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering 2024.

关键词： Neurodegenerative diseases

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Site Choice in Recreational Fisheries: Towards an Agent-Based Approach 22

Site Choice in Recreational Fisheries: Towards an Agent-Base...

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Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference

作者： Kevin Haase Harry V. Strehlow Wolf-Christian Lewin Oliver Reinhardt Adelinde M. Uhrmacher Thünen Institut for Baltic Sea Fisheries Rostock GERMANY Institute for Visual and Analytic Computing University of Rostock Rostock GERMANY

The site choice decisions of recreational fishers (anglers) have important implications for fish stocks, fisheries management, and coastal economies by influencing catch rates and determining where economic values are created. However, the mechanisms of site choice are poorly understood. In this paper, we make the first steps toward applying agent-based modeling to improve the understanding of site choice decisions. Using an exploratory approach, we identified travel distance dependent on angler origin as a key element in site choice to rebuild travel patterns and distances. The 5-year average catches had a subdominant role for the travel patterns but could recreate the angler's distribution among the fishing locations realistically. Utility functions combined both factors, but further model development and more realistic angler agents and catch rates are required to understand anglers' site choices in more detail.

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Potential and Challenges of Assurance Cases for Simulation Validation

Potential and Challenges of Assurance Cases for Simulation V...

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Simulation Winter Conference

作者： Pia Wilsdorf Steffen Zschaler Fiete Haack Adelinde M. Uhrmacher Institute for Visual and Analytic Computing University of Rostock Rostock GERMANY Department of Informatics King's College London London UK

ISBN: (数字)9798331534202

ISBN: (纸本)9798331534219

Simulation studies require thorough validation to ensure model accuracy, reliability, and credibility. While validation typically focuses on the simulation model itself, additional artifacts also influence study outcomes. Conceptual models, comprising research questions, requirements, inputs and outputs, model content, assumptions, and simplifications, provide context information for interpreting results and assessing model suitability. Validating other simulation artifacts for their fitness-for-purpose is complex, necessitating structured arguments to increase confidence. This paper explores when and how validation arguments should be constructed throughout the modeling and simulation lifecycle. Drawing on concepts from safety assurance cases, it defines key claims for the various artifacts, discusses validation arguments from different perspectives - including process, product, people, and project - and illustrates them through a computational biology case study. We conclude with a discussion of the suitability of such structured arguments for the comprehensive validation of simulation studies.

关键词： Accuracy Computational modeling Safety Reliability Context modeling Computational biology

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