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Chronic disease patients have fewer social contacts:A pilot survey with implications for transmission dynamics

Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第3期9卷 926-930页

作者： J.Vanderlocht S.Møgelmose K.Van Kerckhove P.Beutels N.Hens Interuniversity Institute of Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics Data Science InstituteHasselt UniversityHasseltBelgium Centre for Health Economic Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases University of AntwerpAntwerpBelgium

Non-communicable diseases(NCD)are the most important cause of death in the *** socio-economic costs associated with NCDs makes it imperative to prevent and control them in the 21st *** severe toll that the COVID-19 pandemic has taken worldwide is an unfortunate illustration of our limited insight into the infectious risk for the global ***-incidence between NCD and infection offers an underexplored opportunity to design preventive *** a pilot survey,we observed that the NCD population displays a substantial reduction in their social contacting behavior as compared to the general *** indicates that existing mathematical models based on contact surveys in the general population are not applicable to the NCD population and that the risk of acquiring an infection following a contact is probably *** demonstration of reduced social mixing in several chronic conditions,raises the question to what extent the social mixing is influenced by the burden of *** advocate the design of disease-specific contact surveys to address how the burden of disease associates with social contact behavior and the risk of *** SARS-CoV-2 pandemic offers an unprecedented opportunity to gain insight into the importance of infection in the NCD population and to find ways to improve healthcare procedures.

关键词： survey mixing insight

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Epidemiology and predictors of relapse in giant cell arteritis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

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Revue du Rhumatisme (Edition Francaise) 2023年第3期90卷 278-290页

作者： Moreel, Lien Betrains, Albrecht Molenberghs, Geert Vanderschueren, Steven Blockmans, Daniel University Hospitals Leuven Department of General Internal Medicine Leuven Belgium KU Leuven Department of Microbiology Immunology and Transplantation Leuven Belgium Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics (I-BioStat) University of Leuven and Hasselt University Leuven Belgium European Reference Network for Immunodeficiency Autoinflammatory Autoimmune and Pediatric Rheumatic disease (ERN-RITA) Utrecht Netherlands

Objectives: The aim of this study was to estimate the timing of relapse, the prevalence of multiple relapses and the predictors of relapse in patients with giant cell arteritis (GCA). Methods: PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched from inception till November, 30 2021. Outcome measures include cumulative relapse rate (CRR) of first relapse at year 1, 2, and 5 after treatment initiation, CRR of second and third relapse and predictors of relapse. Results: Thirty studies (2595 patients) were included for timing of relapse, 16 studies (1947 patients) for prevalence of multiple relapses and 40 studies (4213 patients) for predictors of relapse. One-year, 2-year and 5-year CRRs were 32% [95% confidence interval (CI) 22–43%], 44% [95% CI 31–59%], and 47% [95% CI 27–67%], respectively. The duration of scheduled glucocorticoid therapy was negatively associated with the 1-year CRR (p = 0.03). CRR of second and third relapse were 30% [95% CI 21–40] and 17% [95% CI 8–33%], respectively. Female sex (OR 1.43) and large vessel involvement (OR 2.04) were predictors of relapse. Conclusion: Relapse occurred in almost half of GCA patients mainly during the first two years after diagnosis. One in three patients had multiple relapses. The optimal glucocorticoid tapering schedule, which seeks a balance between the lowest relapse risk and the shortest glucocorticoid duration, needs to be determined in future studies. Longer scheduled glucocorticoid therapy or early introduction of glucocorticoid-sparing agents may be warranted in female patients and patients with large vessel involvement. © 2023 Société Française de Rhumatologie;Objectifs: Cette étude avait pour objectif d'estimer le moment des rechutes, la prévalence des rechutes multiples et les facteurs prédictifs de rechute dans l'artérite à cellules géantes (ACG). Méthodes: Une recherche a été effectuée dans les bases de données PubMed, Embase et Cochrane, depuis leur création jusqu'au 30 novembre 2021. Les critères d’év

关键词： ACG Artérite à cellules géantes GCA Giant cell arteritis Rechute Relapse

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Salvage total laryngectomy for squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx and hypopharynx: Validated prognostic nomograms predicting oncological outcomes (vol 46, pg 46, 2024)

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HEAD AND NECK-JOURNAL FOR THE SCIENCES AND SPECIALTIES OF THE HEAD AND NECK 2024年第8期46卷 2102-2102页

作者： Meulemans, Jeroen Van Boven, Alexander Debacker, Jens Laenen, Annouschka Delaere, Pierre Van Lierde, Charlotte Huvenne, Wouter Vander Poorten, Vincent Department of Otorhinolaryngology – Head and Neck Surgery University Hospital Leuven Leuven Belgium Department of Oncology Section Head and Neck Oncology KU Leuven Leuven Belgium Department of Head and Skin Ghent University Ghent Belgium Department of Nuclear Medicine UZ Brussel Brussels Belgium Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics Leuven Belgium Department of Otorhinolaryngology – Head and Neck Surgery University Hospital Leuven Leuven Belgium Department of Head and Skin Ghent University Ghent Belgium Department of Head and Neck Surgery Ghent University Hospital Ghent Belgium

BackgroundSalvage total laryngectomy (STL) is a preferred treatment for patients with residual, recurrent, and second primary squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx/hypopharynx after (chemo)radiation. To individually estimate postoperative oncological outcomes, we designed and validated prognostic *** used a dataset of 290 patients who underwent STL. Nomograms predicting 2‐ and 5‐year OS, DFS, and DSS were developed, using variables which are identified pre‐ or postoperatively. The nomograms were externally validated on a dataset of 109 *** nomograms based on postoperative variables performed better than those based on preoperative variables (OS: C = 0.68 vs. 0.64; DFS: C = 0.70 vs. 0.64; DSS: C = 0.74 vs. 0.64). The nomogram predicting DSS based on postoperative variables performed *** presented prognostic nomograms for predicting oncological outcomes in patients who undergo STL are tools which allow for a reliable prognostic assessment.

关键词： hypopharyngeal cancer laryngeal cancer nomograms oncological outcomes salvage surgery

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Longitudinal trajectories of muscle strength deficits in growing boys with Duchenne muscular dystrophy

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Gait & Posture 2024年 113卷 235-236页

作者： Ines Vandekerckhove Marleen Van den Hauwe Tijl Dewit Geert Molenberghs Nathalie Goemans Liesbeth De Waele Anja Van Campenhout Friedl De Groote Kaat Desloovere KU Leuven Department of Rehabilitation Sciences Leuven Belgium University Hospital Leuven Department of Child Neurology Leuven Belgium University Hospital Leuven Clinical Motion Analysis Laboratory Pellenberg Belgium KU Leuven Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics I-BioStat Leuven Belgium Hasselt University Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics I- BioStat Hasselt Belgium KU Leuven Department of Development and Regeneration Leuven Belgium University Hospital Leuven Department of Orthopedics Leuven Belgium KU Leuven Department of Movement Sciences Leuven Belgium

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Recreational Hazard: Vegetation and Host Habitat Use Effectuate Changes in Tick-Borne Disease Hazard at Infrastructure within Forest Stands

SSRN

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SSRN 2023年

作者： Van Gestel, Mats Heylen, Dieter Verheyen, Kris Fonville, Manoj Sprong, Hein Erik, Matthysen Evolutionary Ecology Group Department of Biology University of Antwerp Wilrijk Belgium Forest & Nature Lab Department of Environment Ghent University Gontrode Belgium Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics Hasselt University Diepenbeek Belgium Bilthoven Netherlands

Studies on density and pathogen prevalence of Ixodes ricinus indicate that vegetation and local host community drive much of their variation between greenspaces. Contrarily, micro-geographic variation is understudied, although its understanding could reduce disease risk. We study the density of infectious nymphal Ixodes ricinus ("DIN", proxy for disease hazard), density of questing nymphs ("DON") and nymphal infection prevalence ("NIP"), were studied near recreational forest infrastructure. We emphasized Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. and its genospecies, with complementary analyses on Rickettsia sp., Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Neoehlichia mikurensis and Borrelia miyamotoi. Drag sampling within forest stands and at adjacent benches and trails was combined with vegetation surveys, camera trapping hosts and pathogen screening of ticks. DIN was highest in forest interior and at trails enclosed by forest. Lower disease hazard persisted at benches and trails at forest edges. This infrastructure effect can be attributed to variation in vegetation characteristics and the habitat use of tick hosts, specifically roe deer, rodents and songbirds. DON is the main driver of DIN at micro-geographic scale and negatively affected by infrastructure and forest edges. A positive association with vegetation cover in understorey and canopy was observed, as were positive trends for local rodent and songbird abundance. NIP of different pathogens was affected by different drivers. Lower B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence in the interior of forest stands, driven by its most prevalent genospecies B. afzelii, points towards higher density of uninfected hosts there. B. afzelii was positively associated with understorey containing tall species and with high canopy cover, whereas local bird community composition predicts B. garinii prevalence. A positive effect of songbird abundance and a negative effect of pigeons were observed. Our findings support amplification and inhibition mechanisms within forest

关键词： Forestry

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Bernstein-based estimation of the cross ratio function

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Series Statistics 2024年第1期58卷

作者： Steven Abrams Ömer Sercik Noël Veraverbeke a Data Science Institute Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics Hasselt University Diepenbeek Belgiumb Global Health Institute Department of Family Medicine and Population Health University of Antwerp Wilrijk Belgium a Data Science Institute Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics Hasselt University Diepenbeek Belgium a Data Science Institute Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics Hasselt University Diepenbeek Belgiumc School of Computer Science Statistics and Mathematics North-West University Potchefstroom South Africa

Local association measures provide useful insights in time-varying changes in association, especially between time-to-event variables. Such local dependence between two correlated random variables can be measured using the cross ratio function. The cross ratio function is defined as the ratio of conditional hazard functions which have been estimated using Bernstein polynomials before. Alternatively, the cross ratio function can be expressed in terms of (derivatives of) the joint survival function of the two random variables. In this paper, we discuss an alternative Bernstein-based plug-in estimator of the cross ratio function in which each of the ingredients is estimated separately. Next to asymptotic normality of the nonparametric estimator, a simulation study is used to assess its finite-sample performance. Finally, the novel estimator is applied to a real-life data application.

关键词： Bernstein polynomials copula functions local association time-to-event data survival functions

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Evaluating COVID-19 vaccine allocation policies using Bayesian m-top exploration

arXiv

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Cimpean, Alexandra Verstraeten, Timothy Willem, Lander Hens, Niel Nowé, Ann Libin, Pieter Artificial Intelligence Lab Department of Computer Science Vrije Universiteit Brussel Brussels Belgium Data Science Institute Interuniversity Institute of Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics UHasselt Hasselt Belgium Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute University of Antwerp Antwerp Belgium University of Antwerp Antwerp Belgium

Individual-based epidemiological models support the study of fine-grained preventive measures, such as tailored vaccine allocation policies, in silico. As individual-based models are computationally intensive, it is pivotal to identify optimal strategies within a reasonable computational budget. Moreover, due to the high societal impact associated with the implementation of preventive strategies, uncertainty regarding decisions should be communicated to policy makers, which is naturally embedded in a Bayesian approach. We present a novel technique for evaluating vaccine allocation strategies using a multi-armed bandit framework in combination with a Bayesian anytime m-top exploration algorithm. m-top exploration allows the algorithm to learn m policies for which it expects the highest utility, enabling experts to inspect this small set of alternative strategies, along with their quantified uncertainty. The anytime component provides policy advisors with flexibility regarding the computation time and the desired confidence, which is important as it is difficult to make this trade-off beforehand. We consider the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using the individual-based model STRIDE, where we learn a set of vaccination policies that minimize the number of infections and hospitalisations. Through experiments we show that our method can efficiently identify the m-top policies, which is validated in a scenario where the ground truth is available. Finally, we explore how vaccination policies can best be organised under different contact reduction schemes and we investigate the impact of vaccine uptake proportions (i.e., the proportion of individuals that will comply with the strategy and take the vaccine). Through these experiments, we show that the top policies follow a clear trend regarding the prioritised age groups and assigned vaccine type, which provides insights for future vaccination campaigns. Furthermore, our experiments suggest that the uptake proportion has only a l

关键词： COVID-19

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The microcirculation: master in normal pregnancy, puppet in preeclampsia

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American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 2025年

作者： Thevissen, Kristof Cornette, Jerome Bruckers, Liesbeth Gyselaers, Wilfried Department of Rheumatology Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg Genk Belgium Faculty of Medicine and Life Sciences Hasselt University Diepenbeek Belgium Department of Obstetrics and Fetal Medicine Erasmus Medical Center Rotterdam Netherlands Data Science Institute Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics Hasselt University Diepenbeek Belgium Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg Genk Belgium

Background: The microcirculation is studied sparsely in the field of maternal hemodynamics. With nailfold video capillaroscopy, further insight is possible in this interesting field within maternal hemodynamics. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the association between functional parameters of the microcirculation and the systemic cardiovascular system in pregnant women at risk for gestational hypertension disorders. Study Design: For this observational study, women with high cardiovascular risk according to maternal anthropometrics and obstetrical and medical history were recruited at random gestational ages, depending on the time of referral to the outpatient clinic for high-risk prenatal care at Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg, Genk, Belgium. After birth, data on maternal and neonatal outcomes were obtained from hospital records, and only women with normal pregnancy (n=142) and preeclampsia (n=34) were included in this analysis. Nailfold video capillaroscopy measurements were performed in the first, second, and/or third trimesters. Video magnification of 200× was used for all fingers except the thumbs, and the stored images were analyzed offline. Capillary density was quantified (n/mm²), mean capillary diameter measured (μm), and capillary bed surface calculated as density × diameter. Cardiac output and total peripheral resistance were measured using impedance cardiography, together with sphygmomanometric blood pressure measurement. A linear mixed model for repeated measures was used to investigate the association between the microvascular and macrovascular parameters. No corrections for multiple testing were applied. Results: In normal pregnancies, a positive association was observed between the capillary bed surface and total vascular resistance (1.807;P=.01) and a negative association between capillary density and cardiac output (−0.269;P=.037). In preeclampsia, a negative association was observed between capillary density and mean arterial pressur

关键词： capillary density capillary diameter capillary perfusion cardiac output gestational hypertension disorder hypertension maternal hemodynamics microcirculation nailfold video capillaroscopy preeclampsia systemic circulation vascular resistance

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Plasticity in the timing of detachment of an Eurasian-African songbird tick, Ixodes frontalis

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Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases 2022年第4期13卷 101966-101966页

作者： Heylen, D.J.A. Van Oosten, A.R. Fracasso, G. Matthysen, E. Eco-Epidemiology Group Department of Biomedical Sciences Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp Belgium Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics Hasselt University Diepenbeek Belgium Evolutionary Ecology Group Department of Biology University of Antwerp Wilrijk Belgium

In non-permanent parasites, host detachment should take place in an environment that ensures the continuation of their life cycle. Timing of detachment - in combination with the host's space use - affects dispersal and transmission success of the parasites and of the pathogens they vector. Before reaching the adult reproductive stage, ticks need to go through multiple immature developmental stages (larva and nymph), each feeding on host blood. In between the feeding bouts, they often remain in the off-host environment for considerable periods of time. With this study, we aimed to obtain more insight in Ixodes frontalis’ off-host habitat use by comparing its detachment pattern in different life stages with that of two habitat-specialized ticks also found on birds: the endophilic tree-hole tick (Ixodes arboricola) and the exophilic sheep tick (Ixodes ricinus), the latter living in humid understory vegetation of forests. For this, we artificially infested hole-roosting (great tits, Parus major) and open-roosting (blackbirds, Turdus merula) birds with ticks under laboratory conditions, and recorded whether detachment occurred during the day or the night. We hypothesize that nocturnal detachment improves off-host mating opportunities and host localization, whereas diurnal detachment optimizes tick dispersal. Ixodes frontalis nymphs detached during the night, especially when feeding on blackbirds. This behaviour was very similar to that of I. arboricola (larva and nymph) feeding on great tits. In contrast, I. frontalis larvae detached during the day, especially when feeding on great tits, which resembles that of I. ricinus’ feeding behaviour (larva and nymph). Ixodes frontalis left the host within seven days, immediately after completion of the blood meal. This is similar to both developmental stages of I. ricinus but contrasts with the very long (up to 20 days) feeding duration in I. arboricola. Thus I. frontalis shows strong plasticity, switching from dispersal-centered

关键词： Dispersal Ixodes arboricola Ixodes frontalis Ixodes ricinus Plasticity Transmission

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OC-023 INCIDENCE OF TRUE CONTRALATERAL METACHRONOUS INGUINAL HERNIA ON LONG TERM FOLLOW-UP AFTER UNILATERAL INGUINAL HERNIA REPAIR: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

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British Journal of Surgery 2023年第SUPPLEMENT_2期110卷

作者： Vissers, S De Groof, P Fieuws, S De Raeymaeker, X Abramovich, T Van De Winkel, N Miserez, M Abdominal Surgery Univerity Hospital Leuven Leuven Belgium Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics KU Leuven Leuven Belgium

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