Aiming at the disadvantage of Monte Carlo simulation method in slow convergence and using a great number of computation resources, this paper, based on analytical approach, builds a quick powersystem operational reli...
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Aiming at the disadvantage of Monte Carlo simulation method in slow convergence and using a great number of computation resources, this paper, based on analytical approach, builds a quick powersystem operational reliability analyzing model. From the viewpoint of operation, this model which is based on Markov chain, assumes that equipment failure rate follows exponential distribution. Its core content includes three aspects. Firstly, a convenient criterion, used to divide powersystem operation into three states, and the corresponding state-space transition expression are proposed for engineering application. Secondly, Markov state transition probability matrix is obtained based on powersystem operation historical data (or simulation data sample). Thirdly, based on state transition probability matrix and current operating state of powersystem, state transition probability, steady state probability and the mean time to first failure can be acquired very quickly. Example analysis using RBTS-BUS6 system, testified the Markov property of powersystem state transition and the efficiency of this study.
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