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A novel chaotic time series wind power point and interval prediction method based on data denoising strategy and improved coati optimization algorithm

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CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS 2024年 187卷

作者： Wang, Chao Lin, Hong Yang, Ming Fu, Xiaoling Yuan, Yue Wang, Zewei Xinjiang Univ Sch Elect Engn Urumqi 830047 Xinjiang Peoples R China Changji Univ Sch Energy & Control Engn Changji 831100 Peoples R China Shandong Univ Key Lab Power Syst Intelligent Dispatch & Control Minist Educ Jinan 250061 Peoples R China HUaneng Xinjiang Energy Dev Co Ltd Energy Branch Urumqi 830000 Xinjiang Peoples R China

Wind power prediction plays a pivotal role in increasing the power grid stability and mitigating market transaction risks. To enhance the prediction accuracy of wind power, this study presents a novel chaotic time series wind power point and interval prediction approach, focusing on data processing, as well as an improved coati optimization algorithm. First, the improved wavelet threshold denoising (IWTD) technique is constructed to eliminate the noise from the original wind power data. Then, the maximal information coefficient (MIC) is adopted to determine the optimal inputs of the prediction model. Subsequently, the improved coati optimization algorithm (ICOA) is developed to optimize the hyperparameters of the bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM), deep belief network (DBN), and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models, along with the linear weight coefficients of the combined model, thereby enhancing the point prediction accuracy. Finally, kernel density estimation (KDE) is employed to obtain interval predictions for wind power with different confidence levels. Results show that the proposed prediction method effectively improves the prediction accuracy compared with other popular prediction models.

关键词： Data denoising Improved coati optimization algorithm Interval prediction Combined prediction model

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Addressing Wind power Forecast Errors in Day-Ahead Pricing With Energy Storage systems: A Distributionally Robust Joint Chance-Constrained Approach

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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY 2024年第3期15卷 1754-1767页

作者： Zhou, Anping Yang, Ming Fang, Xin Zhang, Ying Southern Methodist Univ Dept Elect & Comp Engn Dallas TX 75275 USA Shandong Univ Key Lab Power Syst Intelligent Dispatch & Control Jinan 250061 Peoples R China Mississippi State Univ Dept Elect & Comp Engn Starkville 39762 MS USA Oklahoma State Univ Dept Elect & Comp Engn Stillwater OK 74078 USA

The rapid integration of renewable energy sources (RESs) has imposed substantial uncertainty and variability on the operation of power markets, which calls for unprecedentedly flexible generation resources such as batteries. In this paper, we develop a novel pricing mechanism for day-ahead electricity markets to adeptly accommodate the uncertainties stemming from RESs. First, a distributionally robust joint chance-constrained (DRJCC) economic dispatch model that incorporates energy storage systems is presented, ensuring that the DRJCCs are satisfied across a moment-based ambiguity set enriched with unimodality-skewness characteristics. Second, by applying the Bonferroni approximation method to tackle the DRJCCs, we show that the proposed model can be transformed into a second-order cone programming (SOCP) problem. Building on the SOCP reformulation, we then precisely derive the electricity prices, including the energy, reserve, and uncertainty prices. Furthermore, we prove that the obtained pricing mechanism supports a robust competitive equilibrium under specific premises. Finally, a PJM 5-bus test system and the IEEE 118-bus test system are used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the suggested approach, underscoring its potential contributions to modern power market operations.

关键词： Distributionally robust joint chance constraints electricity prices energy storage systems market design renewable energy

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A power Grid Accident Early Warning Method Considering Multi-factor Coupling 17th

A Power Grid Accident Early Warning Method Considering Multi...

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17th Annual Conference of China Electrotechnical Society, CES 2022

作者： Hu, Liangping Cong, Wei Xu, Anxin Wei, Zhen Han, Aoyang An, Shuhuai Key Laboratory of Power System Intelligent Dispatch and Control Shandong University Jinan Shandong China Rizhao Power Supply Company Shandong Electric Power Company State Grid Shandong Rizhao China Qingdao Power Supply Company Shandong Electric Power Company State Grid Shandong Qingdao China

ISBN: (纸本)9789819903566

The power grid is an important infrastructure for the development of the national economy and society. It is of great significance to carry out research on the early warning method of power grid accidents to ensure the safe and stable operation of the power grid. In this paper, a power grid accident early warning method considering multi-factor coupling is proposed, based on conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial networks to generate minority class samples to achieve dataset balance. The depth features of the two-dimensional input samples were extracted by using a deep convolutional autoencoder network for the three types of disaster factors: meteorology, equipment and geographical environment. A deep self-encoding network is constructed, and the deep feature splicing of three types of disaster-causing factors is used as input, and a softmax classifier is added to the output layer of the network to construct a multi-factor coupled power grid accident early warning model to realize the prediction and early warning of power grid accidents. Numerical simulations verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the method proposed in this paper. © 2023, Beijing Paike Culture Commu. Co., Ltd.

关键词： Numerical methods

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Prediction of Intra-Period Minimum Thermal Rating of Overhead Conductors

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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON power DELIVERY 2023年第1期38卷 564-574页

作者： Wang, Mengxia Wang, Shihao Jin, Xu Cui, Mingjian Yang, Ming Shandong Univ Key Lab Power Syst Intelligent Dispatch & Control Minist Educ Jinan 250002 Shandong Peoples R China Southeast Univ Dept Elect Engn Nanjing 210096 Jiangsu Peoples R China Tianjin Univ Sch Elect & Informat Engn Tianjin 300072 Peoples R China

Regarding power system dispatch decisions, the current-carrying limits of transmission lines in each dispatch period in the look-ahead time horizon should be represented by the intra-period minimum thermal rating (IMTR) for the sake of security. In this paper, the IMTR prediction issue of the overhead conductor is raised, and the predictability of the IMTR is investigated. Specifically, for the overhead conductor, the distribution and correlation characteristics of the IMTR and its corresponding meteorological elements are analyzed based on the measured meteorological data around an overhead conductor. On this basis, the quantile regression neural network (QRNN) and copula model are employed to make probability predictions on IMTRs of multiple periods in the prediction time horizon considering the temporal correlation of the IMTR. Also, the influences of the time period length, prediction time horizon, and the consideration of the temporal correlation of the IMTR on prediction results are analyzed. The work presented in this paper reveals the predictability of the IMTR, which is of significance to guide the prediction of the IMTR of the overhead conductor. Thus, it can help operators safely exploit the current-carrying capability of the overhead line.

关键词： Conductors Thermal conductivity Predictive models Correlation Biological system modeling Thermal analysis Data models power system dispatch decision overhead conductor intra-period minimum thermal rating probability prediction copula

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Application of Soft-Switching Cell With Inherent Redundancy Properties for Enhancing the Reliability of Boost-Based DC-DC Converters

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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON power ELECTRONICS 2021年第11期36卷 12342-12354页

作者： Faraji, Rasoul Ding, Lei Rahimi, Tohid Kheshti, Mostafa Shandong Univ Minist Educ Sch Elect Engn Key Lab Power Syst Intelligent Dispatch & Control Jinan 250061 Peoples R China

In this article, the inherent fault-tolerant capability of the soft-switching cell for boost-based dc-dc converters is investigated. The main switch of boost-based dc-dc converters withstands high-temperature stress, which is expected to be failed with a higher probability than other devices. Providing soft-switching condition for the main switch and employing fault-tolerant capability are effective approaches to solve this problem. When a fault occurs for the main switch, the proposed converter can be reconfigured such that the soft-switching cell can change its duty to continue the normal operation of the converter without interruption. Inherent redundancy, low failure rate, high integration, and high efficiency are the specifications of the presented converter. The reliability analyses are presented and the functionality of the active soft-switching cell to provide soft-switching condition and fault-tolerant capability are verified by experimental results.

关键词： Switches Circuit faults Soft switching Fault tolerant systems Reliability Integrated circuit reliability Thyristors Active soft-switching cell boost dc-dc converter fault-tolerant capability inherent redundancy feature reliability

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Modelling and control of central air-conditioning loads for power system emergency frequency control

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IET GENERATION TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION 2022年第20期16卷 4054-4067页

作者： Liu, Meng Tian, Yuyang Cheng, Dingyi Zhang, Yan Ding, Lei State Grid Shandong Elect Power Res Inst Jinan Shandong Peoples R China State Grid Taian Power Supply Co Tai An Shandong Peoples R China Shandong Univ Key Lab Power Syst Intelligent Dispatch & Control Minist Educ Jinan Peoples R China

The physical model as well as the corresponding parameter identification method of central air conditioning load is proposed in this paper, based on which emergency control strategy of central air conditioning is designed to participate in emergency frequency control after the sudden large power loss in receiving end grid such as high voltage direct current (HVDC) blocking fault. Firstly, the basic principle of the central air conditioner is introduced. On this basis, the physical model of the central air conditioner which includes central air conditioning unit, temperature change of refrigerated inflow and outflow water, heat exchange between the cooling water of the fan coil and the room, indoor average temperature change as well as the proportion of the room in the open state are established. Moreover, combined with the central air-conditioning model, a parameter identification method of the model is proposed. Then, the emergency control and flexible recovery strategy of central air-conditioning are proposed. The application prospect of emergency control of central air conditioning in response stability control and low frequency load shedding (UFLS) after HVDC blocking faults of receiving power grid is discussed, respectively. The experimental platform is set up to verify the accuracy of the model and parameter identification method and the feasibility of emergency control.

关键词： power system emergency frequency control emergency control strategy power grids response stability control air conditioning HVDC power convertors central air conditioner heat exchangers central air-conditioning loads central air conditioning load central air-conditioning model physical model HVDC power transmission frequency control corresponding parameter identification method load shedding central air conditioning unit high voltage direct current blocking fault cooling

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Optimal Scheduling Strategy for Multi-Energy Microgrid Considering Integrated Demand Response

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ENERGIES 2023年第12期16卷 4694页

作者： Wang, Long Shandong Univ Key Lab Power Syst Intelligent Dispatch & Control Minist Educ Jinan 250061 Peoples R China

Research on energy storage plants has gained significant interest due to the coupled dispatch of new energy generation, energy storage plants, and demand-side response. While virtual power plant research is prevalent, there is comparatively less focus on integrated energy virtual plant station research. This study aims to contribute to the integrated energy virtual plant station research by exploring the relationship between the integrated energy electro-thermal coupling capacity, various forms of electro-thermal integrated energy response, and electro-thermal integrated energy storage. Analyzing the attributes of an integrated energy microgrid, including energy storage characteristics, time-of-use tariffs, and electric and thermal loads, is crucial. A grid-connected microgrid with cogeneration systems, electric boilers, fuel cells, and energy storage systems is used as an illustrative example. The dispatching method prioritizes multiple complementary energy sources while considering the integrated energy demand response. The study presents different models for the electricity demand and thermal energy demand response and introduces the design of a wholesale power trader involved in building energy storage facilities and participating in the demand response. To verify the feasibility and rationality of the integrated energy demand response scenario, three different schemes are compared, and an economic analysis is conducted.

关键词： economic dispatch multi-energy microgrid time-of-use integrated demand response (IDR)

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Multi-Objective Upgrade Planning Strategy for Harnessing Operational Flexibility of Coal-Fired power Generators

Multi-Objective Upgrade Planning Strategy for Harnessing Ope...

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power and Electrical Engineering (ACPEE), 5th Asia Conference on

作者： Zhengxing Ren Xiaodong Chu Key Laboratory of Power System Intelligent Dispatch and Control of the Ministry of Education Shandong University Jinan China

The high penetration of renewable energy in power systems leads to significant net load fluctuations. Coal-fired power generators conventionally designed for baseload operations are expected to be flexible with cycling operations. Necessary upgrades received by the power generators to improve their operational flexibility will cause associated costs. An upgrade planning strategy is proposed in this paper for harnessing operational flexibility of coal-fired power generators. First, a multi-objective optimization model of coal-fired power generators is established in which the upgrade cost, operating cost, and the upgraded load following capacity of three stages are comprehensively integrated. Next, an improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve the proposed model. Finally, a multi-criteria decision making method is applied to select the best upgrade plan. The case study results of the IEEE 39-bus system demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed planning strategy.

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Joint Planning of Substations and Feeders in Urban Distribution Network Considering Real Street Layouts

Joint Planning of Substations and Feeders in Urban Distribut...

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Energy, Electrical and power Engineering (CEEPE), International Conference on

作者： Junyu Ge Dayang Yu Mingqiang Wang Caishuai Liang Key Laboratory of Power System Intelligent Dispatch and Control Ministry of Education (Shandong University) Jinan China

There is a significant gap between the academic research and practical application of urban distribution network planning. In general, the distribution network planning in academic research does not consider the impact of real street layout on planning, which makes most distribution network models difficult to apply in practice. In addition, the planning of substations and feeders in urban distribution network planning is often carried out separately, which often leads to suboptimal planning results. The objective function that is often used in academia is also difficult to meet the needs of field planners. Aiming at the above problems, this paper proposes a joint planning model of substations and feeders in urban distribution network considering real street layout, fully considers the influence of real street layout on feeders and substations planning. The model uses the minimum load moment as the objective function and further improves it. The proposed model is recast as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem, and it can be solved by the state-of-art commercial solver. The effectiveness and validity of the proposed model are illustrated on a 16-block test system.

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Interaction and Stability Analysis Between Grid-Forming and Grid-Following Converters

Interaction and Stability Analysis Between Grid-Forming and ...

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International Conference on power system Technology (powerCON)

作者： Yujing Zhao Hua Ye Jialun Yang Key Laboratory of Power System Intelligent Dispatch and Control of Ministry of Education Shandong University Jinan China

Different from traditional grid-following (GFL) converter, grid-forming (GFM) converter can provide inertial support through various control modes, which means that it could improve system stability. However, the existing studies mainly focus on stability of system composed of homogeneous converters. Very few studies have analyzed the interaction between different types of converters. Therefore, this paper mainly analyzes the interaction and stability analysis between GFM converter and GFL converter. Firstly, the stability criterion is derived according to the equivalent impedance circuit model. Secondly, the sequence impedance models of both converters are established and further verified with sweep results. Thirdly, the interaction and stability of the system including GFM and GFL converter are analyzed by Nyquist curve. Finally, the accuracy of the proposed criterion and analysis in theory is validated by electromagnetic transient simulation.

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