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Interactions between Initial and Lateral Boundary Perturbations in Convection-Permitting Ensemble prediction

Journal of meteorological Research 2025年第1期39卷 116-131页

作者： Jingzhuo WANG Jing CHEN Fajing CHEN Yanan Ma CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

How to construct appropriate perturbations for convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems(CPEPSs)is a critical issue awaiting urgent *** two common perturbations,initial perturbations(IPs)and lateral boundary perturbations(BPs)interact with each other,affecting the model error growth,especially in mesoscale *** the china meteorological administration(CMA)-CPEPS,this study tries to elucidate how BPs interact with matched and mismatched IPs under varied large-scale weather conditions/*** groups of experiments were conducted for strong-forcing and weak-forcing weather regimes over southern china:three with single IPs,one with single BPs,and three with combined *** is found that the perturbation magnitudes were dominated by meso-α-scale components,and IPs under weak forcing exhibited more pronounced effects than under strong forcing;whereas BPs exerted more pronounced effects under strong forcing than weak forcing ***,it lasts longer for high-level variables when the perturbation energy from BPs is higher than that from IPs,compared to low-level ***,for precipitation and dynamic variables,IPs and BPs can mutually *** source of these perturbations,and their specific vertical levels,do not alter the extent of their ***,the weather regime and the scales of the perturbations influence the strength of their mutual *** particular,the weak-forcing regimes exhibit a more pronounced reinforcing effect,and meso-α-scale perturbations are more conducive to fostering interactions compared to meso-β-scale ***,it is the perturbation magnitude inherent in the initial perturbation itself that determines the interactions between IPs and BPs.

关键词： interactions initial perturbations lateral boundary perturbations convection-permitting ensemble prediction

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Development of a Four-Dimensional Diagnostic Analysis Model for Assessing Ensemble Forecast Uncertainty

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Journal of meteorological Research 2025年第2期39卷 288-302页

作者： Fei PENG Yuejian ZHU Jing CHEN Xiaoli LI Jian TANG CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration （CMA） State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Science and Technology China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological Administration National Meteorological Centre China Meteorological Administration

Evaluating whether an ensemble prediction system(EPS) can accurately represent forecast uncertainty is a key aspect of model development and ensemble forecast applications. In this study, a four-dimensional diagnostic analysis model for assessing ensemble forecast uncertainty is proposed, by analyzing the relationship between the ensemble spread and root-mean-square error(RMSE) of the ensemble mean in terms of their temporal evolution(one-dimensional) and spatial distribution(three-dimensional), together with use of the linear variance calibration(LVC) *** on this model and the daily operational forecast data of the china meteorological administration(CMA) global EPS(CMA-GEPS) in December 2022–November 2023, characteristics of the CMA-GEPS forecast uncertainty are diagnosed and analyzed, and compared against the state-of-the-art operational global EPS of ECMWF. Generally,there is a deficiency in CMA-GEPS, which underestimates the forecast uncertainty, especially in the tropics. However, at certain initialization times in some seasons and over some locations, the spread appears greater than the RMSE, indicating an overestimation of forecast uncertainty. Moreover, CMA-GEPS performs better in capturing the forecast uncertainty of lower-level variables than upper-level variables; and in comparison with the mass and thermal fields, the forecast uncertainty of the dynamic field is better represented. Diagnostic analysis using the LVC method reveals that the relevance between the ensemble variance and the ensemble mean error variance of CMA-GEPS increases with forecast lead time, and the problem of underestimated forecast uncertainty is continuously alleviated. In addition, ECMWF EPS behaves distinctly better than CMA-GEPS in representing the forecast uncertainty and its growth process, the reasons for which are discussed and elucidated from the perspective of shortcomings in the methods to generate the initial and model perturbations, the ensemble size, and the f

关键词： diagnostic analysis ensemble forecast ensemble variance-error variance relationship forecast uncertainty spread-error relationship

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Research on Reference State Deduction Methods of Different Dimensions

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Journal of meteorological Research 2025年第1期39卷 100-115页

作者： Yong SU Xueshun SHEN Hongliang ZHANG Xingliang LI CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing100081China

The atmospheric motion is inherently *** high-impact weather events that people concern are generally determined by small-and medium-scale systems overlaid on the large-scale *** accumulation of seemingly minor computational errors can significantly impact the model’s predictive *** solving these equations,the flow field is commonly separated into basic flow and perturbation flow through the introduction of a reference *** approach solves the problem of“small differences between large numbers”in terms such as the pressure gradient force(PGF)and improves the spatial discretization accuracy of the *** paper first reviews the development of zero-dimensional(0D),one-dimensional(1D),two-dimensional(2D),three-dimensional(3D),and four-dimensional(4D)reference state deduction ***,it details the implementation of these different dimensional reference state deduction methods within the context of the Global Regional Assimilation and prediction system Global Forecast system(GRAPESGFS)model of china meteorological administration(CMA).Furthermore,the accuracy of the different dimensional reference states is tested through multiple benchmark *** results demonstrate that the high-dimensional reference state provides a closer approximation to the real atmosphere across various altitudes and latitudes,resulting in a more comprehensive and effective improvement in discretization ***,the paper offers suggestions on issues related to reference state deduction.

关键词： Global Regional Assimilation and prediction system(GRAPES) reference state pressure gradient force(PGF) linearization

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Impacts of the Initial Perturbation Scale and Magnitude on Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts over Eastern china

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Journal of meteorological Research 2025年第1期39卷 132-153页

作者： Yanan MA Jing CHEN Jingzhuo WANG Fajing CHEN Jing WANG Zhizhen XU Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing100081China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100081China CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Tianjin Meteorological Observatory Tianjin300074China

Given the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and inevitable initial condition errors,constructing effective initial perturbations(IPs)is crucial for the performance of a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system(CAEPS).The IP growth in the CAEPS is scale-and magnitude-dependent,necessitating the investigation of the impacts of IP scales and magnitudes on *** comparative experiments were conducted by using the china meteorological administration Mesoscale Numerical Weather prediction system(CMA-MESO)3-km model for 13 heavy rainfall events over eastern china:smaller-scale IPs with doubled magnitudes,larger-,meso-,and smaller-scale IPs;and a chaos seeding experiment as a ***,the constructed IPs outperform unphysical chaos seeding in perturbation growth and ensemble ***,the daily variation of smaller-scale perturbations is more sensitive to convective activity because smaller-scale perturbations during forecasts reach saturation faster than meso-and larger-scale ***,rapid downscaling cascade that saturates the smallest-scale perturbation within 6 h for larger-and meso-scale IPs is stronger in the lower troposphere and *** 9-12 h,the disturbance development of large-scale IPs is the largest in each layer on various ***,thermodynamic perturbations,concentrated in the lower troposphere and near-surface with meso-and smaller-scale components being dominant,are smaller and more responsive to convective activity than kinematic perturbations,which are concentrated on the middle-upper troposphere and predominantly consist of larger-and meso-scale ***,the increasing magnitude of smaller-scale IPs enables only their smaller-scale perturbations in the first 9 h to exceed those of larger-and meso-scale ***,for forecast of upper-air and surface variables,larger-scale IPs warrant a more reliable and skillful ***,for precipitation,larger-scale IPs perform best for l

关键词： convection-allowing ensemble prediction system initial perturbation scales initial perturbation magnitudes forecast skill/verification perturbation growth

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Medium-Extended Range Forecasting of Meiyu in 2023:Performance of CMA and ECMWF GEPSs

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Journal of meteorological Research 2025年第1期39卷 193-210页

作者： Ruoyun NIU Baiquan ZHOU Wei HUANG Yu GONG Couhua LIU National Meteorological Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

Meiyu,featuring prolonged periods of rainfall over the Yangtze-Huai River basin(YHRB),not only replenishes water resources and sustains ecological balance,but also poses potential disaster *** early forecasting of Meiyu is crucial for effectively implementing flood prevention *** help refine numerical models and providing guidance for operational forecasters,this study explores the capabilities of two global ensemble prediction systems(GEPSs)of the china meteorological administration(CMA)and the ECMWF in forecasting the Meiyu characteristics in 2023 over the *** show that the ECMWF GEPS reasonably forecasts the Meiyu rainfall,while the CMA GEPS presents a notable *** predictable lead time of the Meiyu onset date is eight days by the ECMWF GEPS and six days by the CMA GEPS,*** the regional rainstorm processes,the two GEPSs generally provide a predictable lead time of 48-168 h for reasonably forecasting the patterns of the heavy rainfall *** further examine their strengths and weaknesses in Meiyu forecasting,this paper revisits their abilities in forecasting key influence *** verifying against their respective analyses,it is demonstrated that the ECMWF GEPS reasonably forecasts the spatial coverages of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high(NWPSH)and the South Asian high(SAH),whereas the CMA GEPS presents substantial *** GEPSs show generally southward deviations for the eastern ridge line position(RLP)of the SAH,and exhibit a northward deviation for the western RLP of the NWPSH during early forecast lead *** less Meiyu rainfall predicted by the CMA GEPS compared to the ECMWF GEPS can be attributed to its weaker low-level convergence belt and weaker upper-level divergence area.A deeper exploration into these forecast discrepancies in upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence suggests that they likely originate from their initial analysis fields.

关键词： Meiyu characteristics ensemble forecast performance evaluation

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Intensified Tropical Cyclones in Global Climate Simulations Employing a High-Wind Drag Relation over Sea Surface

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Journal of Climate 2025年第10期38卷 2205-2223页

作者： Wei, Wei Lu, Yixiong Yang, Shunan Liu, Yiming Wu, Tongwen Song, Zhenya Qiao, Fangli Li, Yubin Wu, Fanghua Rong, Xinyao Li, Jianglong CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre Beijing China National Meteorological Centre China Meteorological Administration Beijing China First Institute of Oceanography Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Ministry of Natural Resources Qingdao China School of Atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China

Accurate parameterization of momentum fluxes at high winds across the air–sea interface is crucial for realistically simulating the surface wind fields of tropical cyclones (TCs). Climate models often struggle to reproduce observed TC intensities, particularly surface wind speeds. This study evaluates the performance of a revised surface drag scheme with a capping drag coefficient at high wind speeds in global climate models (GCMs). Our results indicate that the revised surface drag scheme significantly improves the representation of TCs in a statistical sense: (i) Not only the mature intensity but also the maximum 10-m wind speeds throughout the TC life cycle are largely enhanced;(ii) biases in the pressure–wind relationship are notably alleviated, exhibiting reasonable agreement with observations;and (iii) other TC statistical features, such as TC number, central sea level pressure, individual lifetime, and intensification rate, show relatively minor sensitivity to the surface drag schemes. The main reason for the superiority of the revised high-wind drag relation is that the lower drag coefficient in high-wind conditions significantly increases the maximum potential intensity (MPI), indicating a higher theoretical limit for TC intensities. These findings are consistent across different model versions and resolutions, highlighting the robustness of the high-wind surface drag parameterization in controlling the simulated surface wind speeds of TCs in GCMs. © 2025 American meteorological Society.

关键词： Tropical cyclone

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Impact of Assimilation of FY-4A GIIRS Three-Dimensional Horizontal Wind Observations on Typhoon Forecasts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期42卷 467-485页

作者： Hao WANG Wei HAN Jun LI Hao CHEN Ruoying YIN CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center(CEMC) China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China FYSIC National Satellite Meteorological CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory Nanjing 210008China Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationNanjing 210008China

Measurements from a hyperspectral infrared(HIR) sounder onboard a satellite in geostationary orbit not only provide atmospheric thermodynamic information,but also can be used to infer dynamic information with high temporal *** measurements from the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS),obtained with 15-min temporal resolution during Typhoon Maria(2018) and 30-min temporal resolution during Typhoon Lekima(2019),were used to derive three-dimensional(3D) horizontal winds by tracking the motion of atmospheric *** work focused on the impact of assimilation of 3D winds on typhoon analyses and forecasts using the operational NWP model of the china meteorological administration(CMA-MESO),and improved understanding of the potential benefits of assimilating dynamic information from geostationary sounder data with higher temporal *** standard deviation of the observations minus simulations revealed that the accuracy of the derived 3D winds with 15-min resolution was higher than that of derived winds with 30-min *** showed that the assimilation system can effectively absorb the information of the derived 3D winds,and that dynamic information from clear-sky areas can be transferred to typhoon *** typhoon prediction,assimilation of the derived 3D winds had greatest influence on the typhoon track,and less influence on the maximum wind *** of the derived 3D winds reduced the average track error by 17.4% for Typhoon Maria(2018) and by 3.5% for Typhoon Lekima(2019) during their entire 36-h forecasts initiated at different *** of GIIRS dynamic information can substantially improve forecasts of heavy precipitation by *** indicate that the assimilation of dynamic information from high-temporal-resolution geostationary HIR sounder data adds value for improved numerical weather prediction.

关键词： GIIRS 3D horizontal winds typhoon CMA-MESO

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Simulations of GaoFen-5 Directional Polarimetric Camera(DPC) Observations Using the Advanced Vector Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期42卷 486-500页

作者： Yuchen XIE Ziqiang ZHU Fuzhong WENG Zhengqiang LI Xiuzhen HAN School of Remote Sensing&Geomatics Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Satellite Remote Sensing&Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth Aerospace Information Research InstituteChinese Academy of Sciences.Beijing 100101China National Satellite Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

In recent years,polarization remote sensing has garnered increasing attention,particularly within the realm of *** accurately simulate polarization information,the vector discrete-ordinate radiative transfer(VDISORT)model developed earlier by the community is further enhanced to an advanced version(referred to as A-VDISORT)through an improved ocean surface *** Fresnel reflection matrix,which includes wind-generated roughness and shading effects,is served by an ocean bidirectional reflection distribution function(BRDF).The simulation from AVDISORT is compared with SCIATRAN for a Rayleigh scattering atmosphere,and the influence of water-leaving radiance is analyzed by the PSTAR(Polarized system for Transfer of Atmospheric Radiation) *** GaoFen-5 Directional Polarimetric Camera(DPC) observations with polarization and multi-angle information,clear-sky pixel recognition over the ocean is first carried *** DPC reflectance of clear conditions is normalized and compared with the *** is shown that A-VDISORT has a high simulation accuracy with a bias of –*** difference between simulation and observation exhibits a standard normal probability distribution function.

关键词： vector radiative transfer equation A-VDISORT ocean BRDF GF-5 DPC

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Targeted sounding observations from geostationary satellite and impacts on high impact weather forecasts

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Science china earth Sciences 2025年第4期68卷 963-976页

作者： Wei HAN Ruoying YIN Jun LI Yongzhu LIU Jincheng WANG Yonghui LI Xiaohao QIN Zhiqing ZHANG Xueshun SHEN CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Beijing100081China National Satellite Meteorological Center Beijing100081China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LaSW) Beijing100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408China

In monitoring and predicting high-impact weather(HIW)events,targeted atmospheric temperature and moisture sounding observations in sensitive areas are more valuable than conventional *** conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method and the linear singular vector(SV)method can be employed to identify these weather-sensitive areas for targeted *** observations can be conducted by using hyperspectral infrared sounders onboard geostationary weather *** Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS)onboard china's Fengyun(FY)-4geostationary satellite series can provide atmospheric sounding observations with a temporal resolution of up to 15 min over areas prone to active weather *** offers unprecedented opportunities for targeted observations,enabling flexible measurement modes that focus on weather-sensitive ***-temporal-resolution measurements not only reveal the threedimensional(3D)thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere,but also track moisture characteristics to capture the 3D dynamic ***,high-temporal-resolution measurements of clear radiances can enhance atmospheric sounding retrievals(used for HIW situation awareness)and data assimilation(used to improve numerical weather prediction).The four-dimensional variational(4D-Var)system facilitates the utilization of the high-temporal-resolution GIIRS targeted *** this study,we explore the applications of FY-4A and FY-4B GIIRS targeted observations and focus on data assimilation based on the 4DVar system for improving HIW *** typhoon cases are selected for impact ***,we compare CNOP and SV methods for identifying sensitive areas,and use the 4D-Var assimilation system of the Global Assimilation Forecasting system of the china meteorological administration(CMA-GFS)for real-time data *** results indicate hightemporal-resolution observations positively impact typhoon forecasts,with high

关键词： Targeted observations GIIRS Data assimilation High temporal resolution THORPEX

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Impacts of lateral boundary conditions from numerical models and data-driven networks on convective-scale ensemble forecasts

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第2期18卷 78-85页

作者： Junjie Deng Jin Zhang Haoyan Liu Hongqi Li Feng Chen Jing Chen Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather Ministry of Educationand School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjingChina CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) BeijingChina State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LaSW) BeijingChina Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting Ministry of Natural ResourcesHohai UniversityNanjingChina Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Zhejiang Province HangzhouChina

The impacts of lateral boundary conditions(LBCs)provided by numerical models and data-driven networks on convective-scale ensemble forecasts are investigated in this *** experiments are conducted on the Hangzhou RDP(19th Hangzhou Asian Games Research Development Project on Convective-scale Ensemble prediction and Application)testbed,with the LBCs respectively sourced from National Centers for Environmental prediction(NCEP)Global Forecast system(GFS)forecasts with 33 vertical levels(Exp_GFS),Pangu forecasts with 13 vertical levels(Exp_Pangu),Fuxi forecasts with 13 vertical levels(Exp_Fuxi),and NCEP GFS forecasts with the vertical levels reduced to 13(the same as those of Exp_Pangu and Exp_Fuxi)(Exp_GFSRDV).In general,Exp_Pangu performs comparably to Exp_GFS,while Exp_Fuxi shows slightly inferior performance compared to Exp_Pangu,possibly due to its less accurate large-scale ***,the ability of using data-driven networks to efficiently provide LBCs for convective-scale ensemble forecasts has been ***,Exp_GFSRDV has the worst convective-scale forecasts among the four experiments,which indicates the potential improvement of using data-driven networks for LBCs by increasing the vertical levels of the ***,the ensemble spread of the four experiments barely increases with lead ***,each experiment has insufficient ensemble spread to present realistic forecast uncertainties,which will be investigated in a future study.

关键词： Ensemble forecast Convective scale Lateral boundary conditions Data-driven network

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