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Impact of net-zero emissions on atmospheric CO_(2) concentration in china: Ideal simulations based on the GEOS-Chem model

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Science china earth Sciences 2025年第3期68卷 867-881页

作者： Jingye TAN Jun WANG Huiqin MAO Hengmao WANG Zhiqiang LIU Meirong WANG Ran YAN Xunmei WANG Fei JIANG Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling International Institute for Earth System ScienceNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural ResourcesSchool of Geography and Ocean ScienceNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Satellite Environmental Application Center Ministry of Environmental ProtectionBeijing 100094China CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy Chongqing Institute of Meteorological SciencesChongqing 401147China State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Key Laboratory of Meteorological DisasterMinistry of EducationCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Xizang Field Station for Scientific Observation and Research on Atmospheric Water Cycle in Mêdog Xigazêand Mêdog National Climate ObservatoryXizang Meteorological ServiceLhasa 850000China

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2)) concentrations have caused global climate change such as global warming and more frequent climate extremes. Countries worldwide have proposed carbon neutrality strategies to curb the rising CO_(2) concentrations. To investigate the impact of china's carbon neutrality goal on atmospheric CO_(2) concentrations, we conducted a series of ideal simulations from 2015 to 2019 using a global 3D chemistry transport model, Goddard earth Observing system Chemistry(GEOS-Chem). Compared with the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of atmospheric CO_(2) (XCO_(2) ) from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2(OCO-2) and surface CO_(2) measurements in Obs Pack, we find that GEOS-Chem effectively reproduces the spatiotemporal variability of CO_(2) . The model exhibits a root mean square error(RMSE) of 1.51 ppm(R^(2)=0.89) for OCO-2 XCO_(2) in china and 2.65 ppm(R^(2)=0.75) for surface CO_(2) concentrations at the WLG station. Further, compared to 2.83 ppm yr^(-1)in the control experiment, we suggest that net-zero CO_(2) emissions in china decelerate the increasing trends of XCO_(2) to 1.81 ppm yr^(-1),making a decrease of approximately 35.89%. Meanwhile, the seasonal cycle amplitude(SCA) of XCO_(2) is moderately reduced from 7.39±0.81 to 6.75±0.70 ppm, representing a relative reduction of 9.91%. Spatially, net-zero CO_(2) emissions induce a more significant decrease in XCO_(2) trends over northern and southern china, while their impact on SCA is more evident in northern and northeastern china. Moreover, ideal experiments demonstrate that zero fossil CO_(2) emissions lead to a greater attenuation of the linear trends of XCO_(2) by 40.81%, while the absence of terrestrial CO_(2) sinks largely diminishes the SCA by 16.61%. Additionally,trends and SCA in surface CO_(2) concentrations exhibit almost identical decreasing responses to net-zero CO_(2) emissions but display greater sensitivities compared to XCO_(2) . Overall, our study underscores the pote

关键词： XCO_(2) GEOS-Chem Carbon neutrality Net-zero emissions Surface CO_(2)concentrations

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The sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon simulation to horizontal resolution and air-sea coupling in the FGOALS-f climate system model

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2025年第1期16卷 44-57页

作者： Xin-Yu HE Bian HE Qing BAO Yi-Min LIU Jian-Dong LI Xiao-Cong WANG Xiao-Chen CHEN Guo-Xiong WU National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Key Laboratory of Straits Severe WeatherChina Meteorological AdministrationFuzhou 350008China Fujian Climate Center Fuzhou 350008China

The relative importance between horizontal resolution and air-sea coupling on improving Asian summer monsoon(ASM)simulation skill remains *** this study,we investigated the sensitivity of ASM to horizontal resolution and air-sea coupling via simulations using a series of versions of the FGOALS-f *** possible causes of bias are further *** results show that the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)run of high model resolution(25 km)achieves the highest skill on capturing ASM pattern,while the AMIP run of low model resolution(100 km)appears the lowest *** analysis of the hydrological cycle and monsoon dynamics suggested that the simulation of the vertical moisture transport term was the primary contributor to excessive precipitation over the western *** addition,the excessive release of latent heat and strong ASM circulation are also responsible for the strong precipitation intensity in the AMIP ***,although the air-sea coupled simulation exhibited the higher skill level,the simulated sea surface temperature(SST)exhibited an overall cold *** cold bias partly counteracted excessive moisture transport after air-sea interaction is ***,increasing resolution could be helpful for more accurate simulation of advection,and together with the use of prescribed observed daily SST could play more important roles than only considering air-sea coupling on improving ASM simulations.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon High resolution Air-sea interaction FGOALS-f3 Hydrological cycle

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Assessing the added value of convection-permitting modeling for urban climate research:A case study in eastern china

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2025年第1期16卷 1-11页

作者： Lin PEI Shi-Guang MIAO Xiang-Yu HUANG Zhong-Wei YAN Deliang CHEN Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China Key Laboratory of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Earth System Sciences Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100080China Department of Earth Sciences University of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden

Accurate urban-resolving climate data are essential for urban climate research and ***,General Circulation Models(GCMs)often lack the resolution and urban representation needed to provide reliable fine-scale climate information over urban ***-permitting modeling(CPM)has emerged as a promising solution to this challenge,despite its computational *** the added value of CPM for specific regions is *** this study,we utilized the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model,as a regional climate model,to assess the performance and added value of CPM at both regional(urban clusters)and local(megacity)*** an optimized dynamic downscaling scheme,we conducted 3-km-resolution CPM and 9-km-resolution dynamic downscaling modeling(DDM)during the summer of 2020 in eastern china,where most cities and urban clusters are *** the local scale,CPM well reproduced observed precipitation rates at daily and sub-daily time scales,greatly improved the overestimation of drizzleto-light rainfall events and underestimation of heavy-to-torrential rain events in ERA5 reanalysis ***,CPM effectively captured diurnal variations in precipitation across six sub-regions of eastern china,a capability lacking in DDM and ***,CPM successfully reproduced the observed urban heat island intensity in Beijing by capturing the heterogeneous air temperature distribution,outperforming ERA5 and *** findings highlight the considerable added value of CPM in simulating sub-daily precipitation variations and urban heat island intensity over urban areas of *** insights will greatly enhance future high-resolution regional climate simulations and climate change projections over urban areas in china.

关键词： Dynamic downscaling modeling Convection-permitting modeling Urban climate Precipitation rates WRF Eastern china

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High-skill members in the subseasonal forecast ensemble of extreme cold events in East Asia

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年

作者： Liu, Xinli Su, Jingzhi Peng, Yihao Liu, Xiaolei State Key Laboratory of Disaster Weather Science and Technology Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA(CEMC) Beijing China Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

Subseasonal forecasting of extreme events is crucial for early warning systems. However, the forecast skills for extreme events are limited. Taking the extreme cold events in January 2018 as a specific example, and analyzing the 34 extreme cold events in East Asia from 1998 to 2020, the authors evaluated the forecast skills of the ECMWF model ensemble members on subseasonal time scales. The results show that while the ensemble mean has limited skills for forecasting extreme cold events at the 3-week lead time, some individual members demonstrate high forecast skills. For most extreme cold events, there are >10 % of members among the total ensembles that can well predict the rapid temperature transitions at the 14-day lead time. This highlights the untapped potential of the ECMWF model to forecast extreme cold events on subseasonal time scales. High-skill ensemble members rely on accurate predictions of atmospheric circulation patterns (500-hPa geopotential height, mean sea level pressure) and key weather systems, including the Ural Blocking and Siberian High, that influence extreme cold events. 摘要极端事件次季节预报对防灾减灾保障社会经济安全具有重要意义. 本研究针对东亚地区极端低温事件的次季节预报难题, 通过分析1998–2020年34起东亚地区极端低温事件, 并重点关注2018年1月中国东北地区极端低温事件, 系统评估不同版本ECMWF模式集合成员之间的预报性能. 提前3周的模式集合平均预报性能存在局限, 但不同集合成员的预报技巧存在差异. 部分成员具有高预报技巧, 约10 %的高技巧成员能提前14天捕捉气温快速转折的过程. 研究指出集合成员是否具有高预报技巧依赖于对大气环流演变特征的合理预报. 该发现为极端冷事件次季节预报评估和后期订正提供了新视角, 凸显挖掘集合成员预报潜力的重要性, 并为提升次季节时间尺度预警能力提供了理论支撑. © 2025

关键词： Ensemble members Extreme cold event Forecast skill Subseasonal forecast

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The Enhancing Effect of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet on Summer Extreme High-Temperature Events over Central-Eastern china Since the Late 1990s

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期42卷 453-466页

作者： Chujie GAO Yuyu NIU Gen LI Shanlei SUN Bo LU Chaofan LI Bei XU Jinglong HUANG Xiubao SUN College of Oceanography&Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting Ministry of Natural ResourcesHohai UniversityNanjing 210098China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China Laboratory for Climate Studies and CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Xiong’an Institute of Meteorological Artificial Intellegence Xiong'an 071708China Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Intelligent Science and Control Engineering Jinling Institute of TechnologyNanjing 211169China

The increase in frequency and intensity of Extreme High-temperature Events(EHEs)over Central-Eastern china(CEC)in recent decades has severely impacted social development and *** observation and reanalysis datasets,this study explores the effect of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream(EAJ)on the CEC EHEs for the summers spanning 1979–*** its general relative location to the right side of the upper-level jet stream exit region,CEC would theoretically suffer more EHEs with a stronger and northwardly-shifted EAJ in summer due to the likelihood of abnormal subsidence induced by the ***,such an EAJ–EHE connection has been unstable over the past four decades but has displayed an evident interdecadal *** the late 1990s,the interannual variation of the EAJ was manifested mainly by its meridional displacement in the northeastern part of East Asia;thus,the atmospheric responses were essentially located to the east of CEC,exerting less of an influence on the CEC ***,since the late 1990s,the EAJ variation has featured an intensity change in its center over the northwest portion of the CEC,which has resulted in a westward shift in atmospheric responses to cover the CEC ***,the EAJ could potentially affect the summer CEC EHEs during 2000–*** findings offer support for an in-depth understanding of the formation mechanisms of extreme weather/climate events of this nature and thus provide a scientific reference for seasonal climate predictions.

关键词： summer extreme high-temperature events East Asian subtropical jet atmospheric circulation central-eastern china interdecadal change

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Projection for the occurrence dates of heat stress in North china

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2025年第1期16卷 82-92页

作者： Lu-Lei BU Kai-Wen ZHANG Zhi-Yan ZUO Deliang CHEN Shanghai Climate Centre Shanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of Cities'Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden

High humidity has been causing extreme heat stress during summer in North china,presenting threats to human *** future changes in the intensity and frequency of heat stress have been well recognized,it remains unclear whether the alterations in humidity resulting from increasing greenhouse gases(GHG)will change the occurrence date of heat stress in North china in the *** this study,we identify three models,including CMCC-CM2-SR5,CMCC-ESM2,and TaiESM1,as the models that most reasonably simulate the dependence of the heat stress on the near-surface specific humidity and the occurrence date of the heat stress in North *** on these three models,we show that the increased specific humidity during the warm season,which is caused by rising GHG emissions,will extend the occurrence date of extreme heat stress from only July and August under the SSP1-2.6 scenario to June through September under SSP5-8.5 scenario.A more prevalent occurrence of the extreme heat stress during the warm season under SSP5-8.5 scenario will cause a three-to four-fold increase in the population exposure to the Severe heat stress(wet-bulb temperature>27.5C)compared to the SSP1-2.6 *** findings highlight that North china will suffer more prevalent and extreme heat stresses in the future due to the GHG-caused increasing *** results are valuable for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize the impacts of the extreme heat stress in North china.

关键词： North china Occurrence date Projection Population exposure

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Joint retrieval of atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles using spaceborne hyperspectral microwave radiometer

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GIScience and Remote Sensing 2025年第1期62卷

作者： Zhang, Chao He, Jieying Ma, Gang Zhang, Shengwei Zhang, Minjie Key Laboratory of Microwave Remote Sensing National Space Science Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA Beijing China Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological Administration Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

This paper explores the performance advantages of spaceborne hyperspectral microwave radiometers for jointly retrieving atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles under clear-sky conditions. It utilizes 4,440 channels at a spectral resolution of 10 MHz and 444 channels at a spectral resolution of 100 MHz across the 60 GHz, 118 GHz, and 183 GHz bands. The Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) was employed as the forward model to generate virtual high-spectral-resolution observational data, based on 10,745 marine profiles from the ECMWF-137 dataset. Channel selection eliminated about half of the channels with spectral resolutions of both 10 MHz and of 100 MHz while retaining 90 (Formula presented.) of the information content. The iterative retrieval model was constructed using the Optimal Estimation Method (OEM) for retrieval experiments, incorporating combinations of channels with 10 MHz and 100 MHz spectral resolutions, as well as those selected through an information entropy-based method and channels from MWTS (Micro-Wave Temperature Sounder) and MWHS (Micro-Wave Humidity Sounder), enabling high-accuracy retrieval of atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Specifically, the 10 MHz resolution extends the effective temperature sensing range from the surface to 70 km, with vertical resolution enhanced to 2–18 km for temperature and 1.6–6 km for humidity. Within the 0–35 km and 0–12 km altitude ranges, temperature retrieval errors are reduced by 0.5 K, and humidity retrieval errors are reduced by 0.00003 kg/kg for specific humidity and 2.4 (Formula presented.) for relative humidity, respectively. Theoretical analysis and quantitative retrieval demonstrate that hyperspectral microwave radiometer outperforms traditional MWTS + MWHS systems in terms of effective sensing range (temperature), vertical resolution, information content, and retrieval accuracy, while also highlighting the effectiveness of channel selection. © 2025 The Author(s). Published by

关键词： atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles channel selection Hyperspectral microwave radiometers joint physics retrieval (OEM)

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Differentiated Cloud-Radiation Characteristics over East Asian Subtropical and Tropical Regions Revealed by CMIP6 Models

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2025年第1期31卷 43-63页

作者： WU Rui-xue LI Jian-dong XU Jian-jun ZHANG Yu LIAO Xiao-qing LIU Chun-lei DU Zhen-cai Laboratory for Coastal Ocean Variation and Disaster Prediction College of Ocean and MeteorologyGuangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiangGuangdong 524088 China CMA-GDOU Joint Laboratory for Marine Meteorology South China Sea Institute of Marine MeteorologyGuangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiangGuangdong 524088 China National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100029 China Shenzhen Institute of Guangdong Ocean University ShenzhenGuangdong 518120 China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China

Pronounced climatic differences occur over subtropical South china(SC)and tropical South china Sea(SCS)and understanding the key cloud-radiation characteristics is essential to simulating East Asian *** study investigated cloud fractions and cloud radiative effects(CREs)over SC and SCS simulated by CMIP6 atmospheric *** differences in cloud-radiation characteristics appeared over these two *** observations,considerable amounts of low-middle level clouds and cloud radiative cooling effect appeared over *** contrast,high clouds prevailed over SCS,where longwave and shortwave CREs offset each other,resulting in a weaker net cloud radiative effect(NCRE).The models underestimated NCRE over SC mainly due to weaker shortwave CRE and less cloud ***,most models overestimated NCRE over SCS because of stronger shortwave CRE and weaker longwave *** CREs were closely linked to their dominant cloud *** observations and simulations showed a negative spatial correlation between total(low)cloud fraction and shortwave CRE over SC,especially in winter,and exhibited a positive correlation between high cloud fraction and longwave CRE over these two *** with SCS,most models overestimated the spatial correlation between low(high)cloud fraction and SWCRE(LWCRE)over SC,with larger bias ranges among models,indicating the exaggerated cloud radiative cooling(warming)effect caused by low(high)***,most models struggled to describe regional ascent and its connection with CREs over SC while they can better reproduce these connections over *** study further suggests that reasonable circulation conditions are crucial to simulating well cloud-radiation characteristics over the East Asian regions.

关键词： cloud fraction cloud radiative effect CMIP6 model South china South china Sea

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Data Assimilation of Ceilometer Aerosol Extinction Coefficient Profile Contributes to predictions of the Three-Dimensional Structures of Aerosols in East china

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Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 2025年第9期130卷

作者： Gao, Lina Jiang, Lipeng Sun, Wei Yan, Peng Qi, Bing Ji, Chengli Tao, Fa Meteorological Observation Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Research Centre on Meteorological Observation Engineering Technology China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Beijing China Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau Hangzhou China

Ceilometer aerosol extinction coefficient (AExtC) profiles in Hangzhou city (HZ) in East china are assimilated from 1 to 31 December 2020 by applying the WRFDA-Chem model system. The analysis field obtained from data assimilation (DA) is set as the chemical initial condition (IC) for WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry) aerosol prediction. Observations, including ceilometer AExtC profiles in HZ, ground PM_2.5 in East china are adopted to verify the analysis and predictions. The RMSE (root mean square error between model and observation) improvements for ceilometer AExtC, and PM_2.5 persist for at least 18 forecast hours, with the mean RMSE decreasing by 13% and 8%, respectively. Moreover, the contributions of different observation systems (ceilometer profiles versus ground PM_2.5) to predicting three-dimensional (3D) aerosol structures are also investigated. The contribution of ceilometer DA is comparable to that of direct PM_2.5 DA to the PM_2.5 predictions in HZ and its environs, with RMSE decreased by 8% and 10%, respectively. In areas far from the assimilation stations' locations (HZ city), ceilometer DA showed an even better performance. The performance of ground PM_2.5 DA is inferior to that of the direct ceilometer DA experiment in predicting ceilometer AExtC vertical profiles. The joint assimilation of ceilometer and PM_2.5 data was conducted. Best 3D aerosol structure predictions are obtained through the joint DA of ceilometer profiles and ground PM_2.5. © 2025. The Author(s).

关键词： aerosol optical property aerosol vertical distribution ceilometer data assimilation WRF-Chem WRFDA

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The Changes in Heating and Cooling Energy Demand in Beijing and Shanghai under Global Warming

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Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2025年第5期64卷 413-424页

作者： Xu, Yan Si, Dong Cao, Lei Yu, Yu Wu, Xueyuan Chen, Sining National Meteorological Information Centre China Meteorological Administration Beijing China National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

Climate change significantly influences electricity and energy demand, yet a comprehensive understanding of heating and cooling energy demand in china’s major cities under the impact of global warming remains incomplete. This study utilized monthly electricity consumption and mean air temperature data to accurately determine the base temperatures for Beijing and Shanghai, identified as 18.948 and 19.548C, respectively. We further established the heating degree-day (HDD) and cooling degree-day (CDD) indices for both cities over the period from 1961 to 2020. The results indicate a declining trend in winter heating demand and an increasing trend in summer cooling energy demand in both Beijing and Shanghai from 1961 to 2020. Notably, the decrease in winter heating demand exceeds the increase in summer cooling demand for each city. The findings indicate a higher sensitivity of electricity demand to temperature in Beijing during summer (13.5519 TWh 8C21) compared to winter (21.5706 TWh 8C21). Similarly, in Shanghai, temperature sensitivity is higher in summer (15.1133 TWh 8C21) than in winter (21.7133 TWh 8C21). This high sensitivity during the summer months implies an overall increase in future energy demand. While Beijing demonstrates a higher demand for winter heating compared to Shanghai, its demand for summer cooling is comparatively lower. Nevertheless, due to Shanghai’s greater sensitivity of electricity demand to temperature compared to Beijing, it is projected that Shanghai’s total energy demand will exceed that of Beijing in the future. © 2025 American meteorological Society.

关键词： Electric power utilization

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