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Modelling forest-atmosphere exchanges of carbon and water using an improved hydro-biogeochemical model in subtropical and temperate monsoon climates

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Ecological Modelling 2025年 507卷

作者： Wei Zhang Xunhua Zheng Siqi Li Shenghui Han Chunyan Liu Zhisheng Yao Rui Wang Kai Wang Xiao Chen Guirui Yu Zhi Chen Jiabing Wu Huimin Wang Junhua Yan Yong Li State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Extreme Meteorology Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Qilu Zhongke Institute of Carbon Neutrality Jinan 250100 China Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Beijing Yanshan Earth Critical Zone National Research Station University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 101408 China Institute of Applied Ecology Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang 110016 China South China Botanical Garden Chinese Academy of Sciences Guangzhou 510650 China State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modelling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Forest-atmosphere carbon exchanges are crucial yet challenging to quantify accurately due to scaling uncertainties in site observations. Process-based models that mechanistically represent coupled carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling processes are theoretically capable of reducing uncertainties in forest carbon flux quantification, thereby improving predictions of multiple ecosystem variables relevant to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. Thus, we enhanced the CNMM-DNDC model by developing a forest-specific growth module incorporating key processes (photosynthesis, allocation, respiration, mortality, litter decomposition) based on Biome-BGC formulations. Compared with the original model, evaluation against 8-year (2003–2010) eddy covariance data from three Asian forests showed significant improvements in the updated model. At daily and annual scales, normalized root mean square error decreased by 46% and 54% for gross primary productivity (GPP), and 65% and 37% for ecosystem respiration (ER), respectively, though net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) improvements were less pronounced due to error offsetting. Sensitivity analysis identified specific leaf area, fraction of leaf nitrogen in Rubisco and annual leaf and fine root turnover fraction as most influential eco-physiological parameters, with solar radiation, humidity and air temperature as dominant meteorological drivers. The model’s ability to capture daily and inter-annual carbon flux variations demonstrates its potential for regional-to-global greenhouse gas assessments, while highlighting the need for component-specific validation to avoid error masking in net flux calculations.

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CAS-ESM2.0 Dataset for the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project(CDRMIP)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 989-1000页

作者： Jiangbo JIN Duoying JI Xiao DONG Kece FEI Run GUO Juanxiong HE Yi YU Zhaoyang CHAI He ZHANG Dongling ZHANG Kangjun CHEN Qingcun ZENG International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of OceanographyMinistry of Natural ResourcesHangzhou 310012China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology College of Global Change and Earth System ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Understanding the response of the earth system to varying concentrations of carbon dioxide(CO_(2))is critical for projecting possible future climate change and for providing insight into mitigation and adaptation strategies in the near *** this study,we generate a dataset by conducting an experiment involving carbon dioxide removal(CDR)—a potential way to suppress global warming—using the Chinese Academy of Sciences earth system Model version 2.0(CASESM2.0).A preliminary evaluation is *** model is integrated from 200–340 years as a 1%yr^(−1) CO_(2) concentration increase experiment,and then to~478 years as a carbon dioxide removal experiment until CO_(2) returns to its original ***,another 80 years is integrated in which CO_(2) is kept *** in the 2-m temperature,precipitation,sea surface temperature,ocean temperature,Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC),and sea surface height are all *** the ramp-up period,the global mean 2-m temperature and precipitation both increase while the AMOC *** of all the above variables change in the opposite direction in the ramp-down period,with a delayed peak relative to the CO_(2) *** CO_(2) returns to its original value,the global mean 2-m temperature is still~1 K higher than in the original state,and precipitation is~0.07 mm d^(–1) *** the end of the simulation,there is a~0.5°C increase in ocean temperature and a 1 Sv weakening of the *** model simulation produces similar results to those of comparable experiments previously reported in the literature.

关键词： CAS-ESM2.0 CDRMIP carbon dioxide removal AMOC temperature precipitation sea surface height

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Propagation and influence on tropical precipitation of intraseasonal variation over mid-latitude East Asia in boreal winter

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第3期12卷 155-161页

作者： JIAO Yang WU Renguang Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

The authors investigate the characteristics of propagation and the influence on tropical precipitation of 9–29-day intraseasonal variation over midlatitude East Asia during boreal winter, and find that the intraseasonal wind signal can propagate both eastward and southward. In the case of eastward propagation, the intraseasonal wind signal is mainly confined to the midlatitudes, featuring eastward migration of anomalous cyclones and anticyclones. In the case of southward propagation, intraseasonal meridional wind perturbations may extend from the mid to the low latitudes, and even the equatorial region. The accompanying wind convergence/divergence induces anomalous precipitation in the near-equatorial regions, forming a north–south dipole precipitation anomaly pattern between the southern South China Sea and the eastern China– Japan region. An anomalous meridional overturning circulation plays an important role in linking tropical and midlatitude intraseasonal wind and precipitation variations.

关键词： Intraseasonal wind variation midlatitude East Asia eastward and southward propagation tropical precipitation

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The Super-large Ensemble Experiments of CAS FGOALS-g3

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第10期39卷 1746-1765,I0021-I0025页

作者： Pengfei LIN Bowen ZHAO Jilin WEI Hailong LIU Wenxia ZHANG Xiaolong CHEN Jie JIANG Mengrong DING Wenmin MAN Jinrong JIANG Xu ZHANG Yuewen DING Wenrong BAI Chenyang JIN Zipeng YU Yiwen LI Weipeng ZHENG Tianjun ZHOU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Computer Network Information Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Group of Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation(ALPHA) State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth SystemResources and Environment(TPESRE)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100864China Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental ScienceLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

A super-large ensemble simulation dataset with 110 members has been produced by the fully coupled model FGOALS-g3 developed by researchers at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of *** is the first dataset of large ensemble simulations with a climate system model developed by a Chinese modeling *** simulation has the largest realizations up to now worldwide in terms of single-model initial-condition large *** member includes a historical experiment(1850-2014)and an experiment(2015-99)under the very high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario(SSP5-8.5).The dataset includes monthly and daily temperature,precipitation,and other variables,requiring storage of 275 ***,the surface air temperature(SAT)and land precipitation simulated by the FGOALS-g3 super-large ensemble have been validated and *** ensemble can capture the response of SAT and land precipitation to external forcings well,and the internal variabilities can be *** availability of more than 100 realizations will help researchers to study rare events and improve the understanding of the impact of internal variability on forced climate changes.

关键词： large ensemble forced response internal variability climate change

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A NOTE ON THE ROLE OF THE INITIAL ERROR STRUCTURE IN THE TROPICS ON THE SEASONAL-TO-DECADAL FORECASTING SKILL IN THE EXTRATROPICS

arXiv

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Vannitsem, Stephane Duan, Wansuo Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium Avenue Circulaire 3 Brussels1180 Belgium Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing China

The predictability of a coupled system composed by a coupled reduced-order extratropical oceanatmosphere model forced by a low-order 3-variable tropical recharge-discharge model, is explored with emphasis on the long term forecasting capabilities. Highly idealized ensemble forecasts are produced taking into account the uncertainties in the initial states of the system, with a specific attention to the structure of the initial errors in the tropical model. Three main types of experiments are explored with random perturbations along the three Lyapunov vectors of the tropical model, along the two dominant Lyapunov vectors, and along the first Lyapunov vector, only. When perturbations are introduced along all vectors, forecasting biases are developing even if in a perfect model framework. Theses biases are considerably reduced only when the perturbations are introduced along the dominant Lyapunov vector. This perturbation strategy allows furthermore for getting a reduced mean square error at long lead times of a few years, and to get reliable ensemble forecasts on the whole time range. These very counterintuitive findings further underline the importance of appropriately control the initial error structure in the tropics through data assimilation. © 2024, CC BY.

关键词： Tropics

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application of the Conditional Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent to Second-Kind Predictability

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1769-1786页

作者： Ming ZHANG Ruiqiang DING Quanjia ZHONG Jianping LI Deyu LU State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology(ESPRE)/Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Department of Ocean Science Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyHong KongChina College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences/Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System(DOMES)/Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography Ministry of Education/Academy of the Future Ocean/Center for Ocean Carbon NeutralityOcean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Laoshan Laboratory Qingdao 266237China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

In order to quantify the influence of external forcings on the predictability limit using observational data,the author introduced an algorithm of the conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(CNLLE)*** effectiveness of this algorithm is validated and compared with the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)and signal-to-noise ratio methods using a coupled Lorenz *** results show that the CNLLE method is able to capture the slow error growth constrained by external forcings,therefore,it can quantify the predictability limit induced by the external *** this basis,a preliminary attempt was made to apply this method to measure the influence of ENSO on the predictability limit for both atmospheric and oceanic variable *** spatial distribution of the predictability limit induced by ENSO is similar to that arising from the initial conditions calculated by the NLLE *** similarity supports ENSO as the major predictable signal for weather and climate *** addition,a ratio of predictability limit(RPL)calculated by the CNLLE method to that calculated by the NLLE method was *** RPL larger than 1 indicates that the external forcings can significantly benefit the long-term predictability *** instance,ENSO can effectively extend the predictability limit arising from the initial conditions of sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean by approximately four months,as well as the predictability limit of sea level pressure over the eastern and western Pacific ***,the impact of ENSO on the geopotential height predictability limit is primarily confined to the troposphere.

关键词： conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent second-kind predictability coupled Lorenz model ENSO

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Prediction of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High in Summer without Strong ENSO Forcing

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第1期35卷 101-112页

作者： Chaofan LI Riyu LU Nick DUNSTONE Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX13PBUK

The western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) is one of the deterministic predictors of the East Asian summer climate, and a better prediction of the WNPSH favors more reasonable forecast of the East Asian summer climate. This study focuses on seasonal prediction of the WNPSH during neutral summers without strong El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) forcing, and explores the associated predictable sources, using the one-month lead time retrospective forecasts from the Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts(ENSEMBLES) project during 1960–2005. The results indicate that the ENSEMBLES atmosphere–ocean–land coupled models exhibit considerable prediction skill for the WNPSH during neutral summers, with successful reproduction of the WNPSH in the majority of neutral summers. The anomalous WNPSH in neutral summers, which corresponds to cyclonic/anticyclonic anomalies in the lower troposphere, is highly correlated with an east–west dipole local sea surface temperature(SST) distribution over the tropical WNP, suggesting an intimate local air–sea coupling. Further diagnosis of the local SST–rainfall relationship and surface heat flux indicates that the anomalous local SST plays an active role in modulating the variation of the WNPSH during neutral summers, rather than passively responding to the atmospheric change. The local SST anomalies and relevant air–sea coupling over the tropical WNP are reasonably well reproduced in the model predictions, and could act as primary predictable sources of the WNPSH in neutral summers. This could aid in forecasting of the East Asian rainband and associated disaster mitigation planning.

关键词： western North Pacific subtropical high seasonal forecast neutral year air–sea interaction

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Interdecadal change in the lagged relationship between the Victoria mode and ENSO

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第4期12卷 294-301页

作者： XIE Wei FAN Guangzhou DING Ruiqiang LI Jianping LI Baosheng QIN Jianhuang ZHOU Xuejing School of Atmospheric Sciences/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina Institute of Oceanography Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghaiChina

This paper investigates the interdecadal variability in the lagged relationship between the spring Victoria mode(VM)and the following-winter El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO).It is found that the relationship is strong during high correlation(HC)periods,e.g.1957–1964 and 1981–2004,but weak during low correlation(LC)periods,e.g.1907–1924,1926–1956,1965–1980,and2005–*** surface air–sea coupling and the evolution of subsurface ocean temperature anomaliesh along the equatorial Paci?c associated with the VM are found to be strong during HC periods and weak during LC periods,which results in a stronger impact of the VM on the following-winter ENSO during HC *** interdecadal change in the relationship between the VM and ENSO is mainly due to the interdecadal change in the intensity of the VM,which is found to be in?uenced by the North Paci?c ***?ndings may improve the prediction skill for the onset of ENSO events.

关键词： Victoria mode ENSO interdecadal change North Pacific Oscillation

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Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第4期27卷 355-367页

作者： ZHONG Quan-jia LI Jian-ping LI Shu-wen WANG Yuan DING Rui-qiang ZHANG Li-feng State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China Multispheres and Earth System(FDOMES)/Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Academy of the Future Oceans Ocean University of ChinaQingdaoShandong 266100 China Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate Pilot Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdaoShandong 266100 China Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms(LACS) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyNanjing 211101 China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875 China

The role of sea surface temperature(SST)forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)*** results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases,and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases,with the increased magnitude of *** predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed(MWS)and minimum sea level pressure(MSLP)are~72 and~84 hours,*** of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios(SNR)from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 *** the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed,noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases,similar to that of the SLP or perturbation *** results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours,and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity.

关键词： predictability nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent signal-to-noise ratios tropical cyclone intensity sea surface temperature

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What Drives the Decadal Variability of Global Tropical Storm Days from 1965 to 2019?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第2期39卷 344-353页

作者： Yifei DAI Bin WANG Weiyi SUN Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education and Earth System Modeling CenterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China International Pacific Research Center University of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96822USA Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96822USA Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment.Ministry of Education State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution of Jiangsu ProvinceJiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and ApplicationSchool of Geography ScienceNanjing Normal UniversityNanjing 210023China

The tropical storm day(TSD)is a combined measure of genesis and *** reflects tropical cyclone(TC)overall activity,yet its variability has rarely been studied,especially *** we show that the global total TSDs exhibit pronounced interannual(3-6 years)and decadal(10 years)variations over the past five-to-six decades without a significant *** leading modes of the interannual and decadal variability of global TSD feature similar patterns in the western Pacific and Atlantic,but different patterns in the Eastern Pacific and the Southern Indian *** interannual and decadal leading modes are primarily linked to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),*** TSDs-ENSO relationship has been steady during the entire 55-year period,but the TSDs-PDO relationship has experienced a breakdown in the 1980 *** find that the decadal variation of TSD in the Pacific is associated with the PDO sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific(PDO-E),while that in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean is associated with the PDO SST anomalies in the western Pacific(PDO-W).However,the PDO-E and PDO-W SST anomalies are poorly coupled in the 1980 s,and this"destructive PDO"pattern results in a breakdown of the TSDs-PDO *** results here have an important implication for seasonal to decadal predictions of global TSD.

关键词： tropical storm days(TSDs) interannual and decadal variations El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)

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