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Quantifying local predictability of the Lorenz system using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2017年第5期10卷 372-378页

作者： HUAI Xiao-Wei LI Jian-Ping DING Rui-Qiang FENG Jie LIU De-Qiang State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS) Beijing Normal University Beijing China Joint Center for Global Change Studies Beijing Normal University Beijing China College of Atmospheric Sciences Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu China GIobal Systems Division Earth System Research Laboratory/Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder CO USA Fujian Meteorological Observatory Fuzhou China

The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent（NLLE） can be used as a quantification of the local predictability limit of chaotic systems. In this study, the phase-spatial structure of the local predictability limit over the Lorenz-63 system is investigated. It is found that the inner and outer rims of each regime of the attractor have a high probability of a longer than average local predictability limit, while the center part is the opposite. However, the distribution of the local predictability limit is nonuniformly organized, with adjacent points sometimes showing quite distinct error *** source of local predictability is linked to the local dynamics, which is related to the region in the phase space and the duration on the current regime.

关键词： Nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent local predictability limit chaotic system Lorenz system

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Comparison between the interannual and decadal components of the Silk Road pattern

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2018年第3期11卷 270-274页

作者： HONG Xiao-Wei XUE Shu-Hang LU Ri-Yu LIU Yu-Yun Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Atmospheric Science Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

The Silk Road pattern（SRP）, which is a teleconnection pattern along the Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet in summer, exhibits both interannual and decadal variabilities. Through the nineyear Gaussian filtering method and regression analyses, this study compares the interannual and decadal components of the SRP. The results indicate that the interannual SRP corresponds to a well-organized wave train of alternate cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies across the Eurasian continent along the Asian westerly jet, resulting in a similar wave-like pattern of cold and warm surface temperature anomalies. This pattern of temperature anomalies differs from that associated with the original SRP, which is characterized by warmer or cooler temperatures mainly over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, depending on the phase of the SRP. On the other hand, the decadal SRP shows a similar pattern to the interannual one from Europe to Central Asia, but the meridional wind anomalies tend to be weak over East Asia. These circulation anomalies are responsible for the significant temperature anomalies over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia but weak anomalies between these two domains.

关键词： Silk Road pattern interannual variability decadal variation temperature

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Impact of ENSO events on the interannual variability of Hadley circulation extents in boreal winter

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2016年第1期7卷 46-53页

作者： GUO Yi-Peng LI Jian-Ping State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University

The interannual variability of the boreal winter Hadley circulation extents during the period of 1979e2014 and its links to El Ni^no-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) were investigated by using reanalysis datasets. Results showed that the El Ni^no(La Ni^na) events can induce the shrinking(expansion) of Hadley circulation extent in the Southern Hemisphere. For the Northern Hemisphere, El Ni^no(La Ni^na) mainly leads to shrinking(expansion) of the Hadley circulation extent in the middle and lower troposphere and expansion(shrinking) of the Hadley circulation extent in the upper troposphere. The ENSO associated meridional temperature gradients have close relationship with the Hadley circulation extents in both Hemispheres. But in the Northern Hemisphere, the ENSO associated eddy momentum flux divergence plays more important role in affecting the Hadley circulation extent than the meridional temperature gradient because of the small local Rossby number. In the Southern Hemisphere, as the ENSO induced eddy momentum flux divergence is small, the meridional temperature gradient dominates the change of the Hadley circulation extent.

关键词： Hadley circulation Extents Meridional temperature gradient ENSO

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Climatology and interannual variability of the annual mean Hadley circulation in CMIP5 models

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2016年第1期7卷 35-45页

作者： GUO Yi-Peng LI Jian-Ping FENG Juan State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University

Using 26 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5), climatology and the interannual variability of the annual mean Hadley circulation are evaluated. The results show that most of 26 models perform well in simulating the spatial structure of the climatology of the annual mean Hadley circulation, but the results derived from these models are generally weaker than that derived from the reanalysis dataset. Eighteen models can properly simulate well the asymmetric mode and symmetric mode of the annual mean Hadley circulation variability. Two models can only simulate asymmetric mode or symmetric mode and the other two models simulate reversed sequences of asymmetric mode and symmetric *** possible reason why some models cannot properly simulate the asymmetric mode and symmetric mode is that these models do not properly simulate the structure of zonal mean sea surface temperature(SST). Especially, not properly simulating variances of symmetric and asymmetric components of the SSTA will lead to reversed sequence of symmetric mode and asymmetric mode. And not properly simulated either symmetric or asymmetric component of the SSTA will lead to inability in simulating symmetric mode or asymmetric mode. On the other hand, some models properly simulate the asymmetric mode and symmetric mode, but do not properly simulate the responses to SST *** models can not reflect the air sea coupling processes in associated with the Hadley circulation, therefore they should be taken more care when classify the models into groups.

关键词： Hadley circulation CMIP5 models Symmetry Meridional SST gradient

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Regime Behavior in the Sea Surface Temperature-Cloud Radiative Forcing Relationships over the Pacific Cold Tongue Region

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2010年第5期3卷 271-276页

作者： WU Chun-Qiang ZHOU Tian-Jun De-Zheng SUN State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysieal Fluid Dynamics （LASG） Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China National Satellite Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Cooperative Institute for Environmental Studies/University of Colorado ＆ NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder Colorado USA

Previous analyses on the estimates of water vapor and cloud-related feedbacks in the tropics usually use observations over the earth Radiation Budget Experiment （ERBE） period （1985-89）. To examine the sample dependence of previous estimates, the authors extend the analysis to two additional periods： 1990-94 and 1995-99. The results confirm our hypothesis, i.e., the values of the feedbacks depend on the period of data coverage. The differences in the feedbacks from cloud radiative forcings （CRFs） estimated from the three periods are particularly significant. Two possible causes for these differences are proposed. First, a regime behavior in the CRFs-Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly （SSTA） rela- tionship over the cold tongue region is revealed： when SSTA is below -0.5℃, the CRF anomalies are insensitive to the SSTA; when the SSTA is between -0.5℃ and 2.0℃, the CRF anomalies are positively correlated with the SSTA; however, when the SSTA exceeds 2.0℃, the CRF anomalies decrease with the SSTA. This regime behavior is due to the regime behavior of cirrostratus and deep convective clouds. Second, the CRFs-SSTA relationship is regulated by remote forcings. Warming of the far eastern equatorial Pacific would reduce the water vapor convergence over the central Pacific by weakening the trade wind over the southeastern Pacific, thereby reducing the feeding of moisture to the convective flow. The results suggest that CRFs-SSTA relationships during ENSO events are nonlinear and strongly depend on the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the SSTA.

关键词： cloud radiative feedback cloud-SST regime ENSO nonlinearity

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Correcting Climate Model Sea Surface Temperature Simulations with Generative Adversarial Networks:Climatology,Interannual Variability,and Extremes

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1299-1312页

作者： Ya WANG Gang HUANG Baoxiang PAN Pengfei LIN Niklas BOERS Weichen TAO Yutong CHEN BO LIU Haijie LI State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Earth System Modelling School of Engineering and DesignTechnical University of MunichOttobrunn 85521Germany Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam 14412Germany Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute University of ExeterExeter EX44QEUK CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

Climate models are vital for understanding and projecting global climate change and its associated ***,these models suffer from biases that limit their accuracy in historical simulations and the trustworthiness of future *** these challenges requires addressing internal variability,hindering the direct alignment between model simulations and observations,and thwarting conventional supervised learning ***,we employ an unsupervised Cycle-consistent Generative Adversarial Network(CycleGAN),to correct daily Sea Surface Temperature(SST)simulations from the Community earth system Model 2(CESM2).Our results reveal that the CycleGAN not only corrects climatological biases but also improves the simulation of major dynamic modes including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode,as well as SST ***,it substantially corrects climatological SST biases,decreasing the globally averaged Root-Mean-Square Error(RMSE)by 58%.Intriguingly,the CycleGAN effectively addresses the well-known excessive westward bias in ENSO SST anomalies,a common issue in climate models that traditional methods,like quantile mapping,struggle to ***,it substantially improves the simulation of SST extremes,raising the pattern correlation coefficient(PCC)from 0.56 to 0.88 and lowering the RMSE from 0.5 to *** enhancement is attributed to better representations of interannual,intraseasonal,and synoptic scales *** study offers a novel approach to correct global SST simulations and underscores its effectiveness across different time scales and primary dynamical modes.

关键词： generative adversarial networks model bias deep learning El Niño-Southern Oscillation marine heatwaves

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Trends and drivers of anthropogenic NOx emissions in China since 2020

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Environmental Science and Ecotechnology 2024年第5期21卷 287-293页

作者： Hui Li Bo Zheng Yu Lei Didier Hauglustaine Cuihong Chen Xin Lin Yi Zhang Qiang Zhang Kebin He Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration Institute of Environment and EcologyTsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate SchoolTsinghua UniversityShenzhen 518055China State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex Beijing 100084China State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation and Center of Air Quality Simulation and System Analysis Chinese Academy of Environmental PlanningBeijing 100041China Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement LSCE/IPSLCEA-CNRS-UVSQUniversite Paris-SaclayGif-sur-YvetteFrance Center for Satellite Application on Ecology and Environment Ministry of Ecology and Environment of ChinaBeijing 100094China Institute of Future Human Habitats Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate SchoolTsinghua UniversityShenzhen 518055China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Nitrogen oxides(NOx),significant contributors to air pollution and climate change,form aerosols and ozone in the ***,timely,and transparent information on NOx emissions is essential for decision-making to mitigate both haze and ozone ***,a comprehensive understanding of the trends and drivers behind anthropogenic NOx emissions from Chinadthe world's largest emitterdhas been lacking since 2020 due to delays in emissions *** we show a consistent decline in China's NOx emissions from 2020 to 2022,despite increased fossil fuel consumption,utilizing satellite observations as constraints for NOx emission estimates through atmospheric *** reduction is corroborated by data from two independent spaceborne instruments:the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument(TROPOMI)and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument(OMI).Notably,a reduction in transport emissions,largely due to the COVID-19 lockdowns,slightly decreased China's NOx emissions in *** subsequent years,2021 and 2022,reductions in NOx emissions were driven by the industry and transport sectors,influenced by stringent air pollution *** satellite-based inversion system developed in this study represents a significant advancement in the real-time monitoring of regional air pollution emissions from space.

关键词： China's NOx emissions Pollution control Socio-economic drivers Atmospheric inversion

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Varying contributions of fast and slow responses cause asymmetric tropical rainfall change between CO_(2) ramp-up and ramp-down

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Science Bulletin 2022年第16期67卷 1702-1711,M0004页

作者： Shijie Zhou Ping Huang Shang-Ping Xie Gang Huang Lin Wang Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San DiegoLa Jolla CA 92093USA Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Tropical rainfall is important for regional climate around the *** a warming climate forced by rising CO_(2),the tropical rainfall will increase over the equatorial Pacific where sea surface warming is locally ***,we analyze an idealized CO_(2) removal experiment from the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project(CDRMIP)and show that the tropical rainfall change features a stronger pattern during CO_(2) ramp-down than ramp-up,even under the same global mean temperature increase,such as the 2℃ goal of the Paris *** tropical rainfall during CO_(2) ramp-down increases over the equatorial Pacific with a southward extension,and decreases over the Pacific intertropical convergence zone and South Pacific convergence *** asymmetric rainfall changes between CO_(2) ramp-down and ramp-up result from time-varying contributions of the fast and slow oceanic responses to CO_(2) forcing,defined as the responses to abrupt CO_(2) forcing in the first 10 years and thereafter,respectively,in the abrupt-4xCO_(2) *** fast response follows the CO_(2) evolution,but the slow response does not peak until 60 years after the CO_(2) *** slow response features a stronger El Niño-like pattern,as the ocean dynamical thermostat effect is suppressed under stronger subsurface *** delayed and stronger slow response leads to stronger tropical rainfall changes during CO_(2) *** results indicate that returning the global mean temperature increase to below a certain goal,such as 2℃,by removing CO_(2),may fail to restore tropical convection distribution,with potentially devastating effects on climate worldwide.

关键词： Tropical rainfall Fast and slow responses Sea surface warming pattern CDRMIP

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Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第7期37卷 663-670页

作者： Fei LIU Chen XING Jinbao LI Bin WANG Jing CHAI Chaochao GAO Gang HUANG Jian LIU Deliang CHEN School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China Earth System Modeling and Climate Dynamics Research Center Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Geography University of Hong KongPokfulamHong Kong Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center University of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96822USA Department of Environmental Science Zhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment Ministry of EducationJiangsu Provincial State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment EvolutionSchool of Geography ScienceNanjing Normal UniversityNanjing 210023China Department of Earth Sciences University of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden

The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines.A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig.1a),and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic *** eruption has become a deep concern worldwide,not only for its damage on local society,but also for potential hazardous consequences on the earth’s climate and environment.

关键词： Volcano Philippines worldwide

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Seamless Prediction in China: A Review

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第8期40卷 1501-1520页

作者： Hong-Li REN Qing BAO Chenguang ZHOU Jie WU Li GAO Lin WANG Jieru MA Yao TANG Yangke LIU Yujun WANG Zuosen ZHAO State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Tibetan Plateau MeteorologyChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Ensemble Forecasting Division CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center(CEMC)Beijing 100081China School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China

Seamless prediction is a weather-climate integrated prediction covering multiple time scales that include days,weeks,months,seasons,years,and *** prediction can provide different industries with information such as weather conditions and climate variations from the next few days to years,which have important impacts on economic and social development and important reference value for short-,medium-and long-term decision-making and planning of the ***,seamless prediction has received widespread attention from the international scientific community *** Chinese scientists have also carried out relevant research,this paper reviews the research in China on developments and applications of seamless prediction methods and prediction systems in recent *** them,the main progress of seamless prediction methods studies is reviewed from four aspects:short-and medium-range weather forecasting,subseasonal-to-seasonal,seasonal-to-interannual,and decadal climate *** terms of development and application of seamless prediction systems,the main achievements made by meteorological operational departments,scientific institutes,and universities in China in recent years are ***,some of the issues in seamless prediction that need further study are discussed.

关键词： seamless prediction weather-climate integrated prediction prediction system

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