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A New Method to Calculate Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations for Ensemble Forecasting

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第05期 952-967页

作者： Junjie MA Wansuo DUAN Zhuomin LIU Ye WANG School of Mathematics North University of China National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences School of Systems Science Beijing Normal University School of Mathematics and Statistics Henan University

Orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(O-CNOPs) have been used to generate ensemble forecasting members for achieving high forecasting skill of high-impact weather and climate events. However, highly efficient calculations for O-CNOPs are still challenging in the field of ensemble forecasting. In this study, we combine a gradientbased iterative idea with the Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization, and propose an iterative optimization method to compute OCNOPs. This method is different from the original sequential optimization method, and allows parallel computations of OCNOPs, thus saving a large amount of computational time. We evaluate this method by using the Lorenz-96 model on the basis of the ensemble forecasting ability achieved and on the time consumed for computing O-CNOPs. The results demonstrate that the parallel iterative method causes O-CNOPs to yield reliable ensemble members and to achieve ensemble forecasting skills similar to or even slightly higher than those produced by the sequential method. Moreover, the parallel method significantly reduces the computational time for O-CNOPs. Therefore, the parallel iterative method provides a highly effective and efficient approach for calculating O-CNOPs for ensemble forecasts. Expectedly, it can play an important role in the application of the O-CNOPs to realistic ensemble forecasts for high-impact weather and climate events.

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Early and Late Summer Relationships between the Silk Road Pattern and the Precipitation Variation Surrounding the Northern Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Climate 2025年第11期38卷 2543-2556页

作者： Hong, Xiaowei Lu, Riyu Climate Change Research Center Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The Silk Road pattern (SRP) is an important summer teleconnection pattern across the midlatitude Eurasia and is featured by alternate southerly and northerly wind anomalies along the upper-tropospheric westerly jet. It affects significantly the boreal summer climate, including those around the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which has been investigated much based on the summer mean results. However, the SRP shows substantial differences between early and late summer, which are separated at early July. This study identifies that the SRP’s impacts on precipitation surrounding the TP differ much between the two periods: The SRP-related precipitation anomalies are significant over the northeastern TP (NETP) in early summer, but shift northwestwards to domains around the northwestern TP (NWTP) in late summer. These differences can be attributed to the subseasonal change of the SRP and its configurations with the thermal condition surrounding the TP. The SRP is located more westward in late summer than in early summer. Correspondingly, the SRP-related southerly anomalies around the TP prevail over the NETP in early summer but over the NWTP in late summer. Superimposed onto the climatological thermal contrast between the humid southern TP and the dry north, these southerly anomalies favor the northward moisture transport and local precipitation genesis. NETP and NWTP are two domains with greater precipitation amount surrounding the northern TP and are crucial for the Asian ecological and environmental balance. Therefore, the present study holds practical implications for enhancing the accuracy of summer precipitation forecasts surrounding the TP on a subseasonal time scale and further improves regional climate adaptation and water resource management. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Precipitation Regional effects Subseasonal variability Teleconnections

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Mélange diapirs in the subduction factory

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2025年第14期70卷 2163-2175页

作者： Liu, Huichuan Wang, Yuejun Huangfu, Pengpeng Beijing102249 China Beijing102249 China Zhuhai519082 China State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408 China

Subducted oceanic crust (i.e., subducted mélange) comprises marine sediments, altered oceanic crust (AOC) and mantle peridotite. Much debate exists concerning how the subducted oceanic crust interacted with the overlying mantle in subduction zones. Current debates focus on two principal interaction mechanisms between the subducted mélange and the sub-arc mantle: marine sediment melt and/or AOC fluid metasomatism on sub-arc mantle, and physical mixing of subducted mélange with sub-arc mantle. While the traditional metasomatic model (incorporating sediment melting with AOC/serpentinite dehydration) has dominated arc formation theories, recent thermal constraints challenge this paradigm. Sediment melting requires temperatures exceeding 1050°C at subduction zone pressures (2.7−5 GPa), conditions rarely attained along typical slab-mantle interfaces. Such high temperatures cannot be reached at similar pressures along the slab interface with the sub-arc mantle. Consequently, the mélange mixing model has gained increasing attention, proposing initial bulk mixing of marine sediments and AOC with mantle wedge material prior to subsequent melting/dehydration processes. numerical simulations, seismic observations, and geochemical data confirm the viability of mélange diapirism as an alternative mechanism, though critical questions remain regarding: (1) interaction dynamics between slab-derived diapirs and mantle materials, (2) diagnostic geochemical signatures of mixing products, and (3) robust identification criteria for these processes. This article summarizes the previous researches on the mélange diapirs in recent years, and lists the evidences of the physical mixing between the mélange diapirs and sub-arc mantle. numerical simulation results reveal three evolutionary stages of mélange diapirism: (1) sediment-dominated, (2) sediment-AOC hybrid, and (3) AOC-dominated phases. Our synthesis of recent advances found that distinct isotopic fingerprints enable discrimination betw

关键词： Exploratory geochemistry

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The Changes in Heating and Cooling Energy Demand in Beijing and Shanghai under Global Warming

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Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2025年第5期64卷 413-424页

作者： Xu, Yan Si, Dong Cao, Lei Yu, Yu Wu, Xueyuan Chen, Sining National Meteorological Information Centre China Meteorological Administration Beijing China National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

Climate change significantly influences electricity and energy demand, yet a comprehensive understanding of heating and cooling energy demand in China’s major cities under the impact of global warming remains incomplete. This study utilized monthly electricity consumption and mean air temperature data to accurately determine the base temperatures for Beijing and Shanghai, identified as 18.948 and 19.548C, respectively. We further established the heating degree-day (HDD) and cooling degree-day (CDD) indices for both cities over the period from 1961 to 2020. The results indicate a declining trend in winter heating demand and an increasing trend in summer cooling energy demand in both Beijing and Shanghai from 1961 to 2020. Notably, the decrease in winter heating demand exceeds the increase in summer cooling demand for each city. The findings indicate a higher sensitivity of electricity demand to temperature in Beijing during summer (13.5519 TWh 8C21) compared to winter (21.5706 TWh 8C21). Similarly, in Shanghai, temperature sensitivity is higher in summer (15.1133 TWh 8C21) than in winter (21.7133 TWh 8C21). This high sensitivity during the summer months implies an overall increase in future energy demand. While Beijing demonstrates a higher demand for winter heating compared to Shanghai, its demand for summer cooling is comparatively lower. Nevertheless, due to Shanghai’s greater sensitivity of electricity demand to temperature compared to Beijing, it is projected that Shanghai’s total energy demand will exceed that of Beijing in the future. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Electric power utilization

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Past warm intervals inform the future South Asian summer monsoon

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Nature 2025年第8063期641卷 653-659页

作者： He, Linqiang Zhou, Tianjun Guo, Zhun State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY United States Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

In the future, monsoon rainfall over densely populated South Asia is expected to increase, even as monsoon circulation weakens1, 2–3. By contrast, past warm intervals were marked by both increased rainfall and a stre...

In the future, monsoon rainfall over densely populated South Asia is expected to increase, even as monsoon circulation weakens^{1, 2–3}. By contrast, past warm intervals were marked by both increased rainfall and a strengthening of monsoon circulation^{4, 5–6}, posing a challenge to understanding the response of the South Asian summer monsoon to warming. Here we show consistent South Asian summer monsoon changes in the mid-Pliocene, Last Interglacial, mid-Holocene and future scenarios, characterized by an overall increase in monsoon rainfall, a weakening of the monsoon trough-like circulation over the Bay of Bengal and a strengthening of the monsoon circulation over the northern Arabian Sea, as revealed by a compilation of proxy records and climate simulations. Increased monsoon rainfall is thermodynamically dominated by atmospheric moisture following the rich-get-richer paradigm, and dynamically dominated by the monsoon circulation driven by the enhanced land warming in subtropical western Eurasia and northern Africa. The coherent response of monsoon dynamics across warm climates reconciles past strengthening with future weakening, reinforcing confidence in future projections. Further prediction of South Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall by physics-based regression models using past information agrees well with climate model projections, with spatial correlation coefficients of approximately 0.8 and 0.7 under the high-emissions scenario. These findings underscore the promising potential of past analogues, bolstered by palaeoclimate reconstruction, in improving future South Asian summer monsoon projections. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2025.

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Structural Differences in Temperature and Water Vapor among Convective, Near-Neutral, and Stable Boundary Layers and between High-Vertical-Resolution Radiosonde and the ERA5 Reanalysis Data

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Monthly Weather Review 2025年第5期153卷 831-845页

作者： Zhang, Ce Zou, Xiaolei Li, Juan Joint Center of Data Assimilation for Research and Application Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre (CEMC) Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW) Beijing China

earth’s surface conditions influence the boundary layer and then influence the free atmosphere, which are measured by densely distributed manual and automatic surface stations over land. This study represents the first step toward increasing the role of surface-sensitive observations in high-resolution mesoscale storm prediction. Comparisons are made for planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights and autocovariances and cross covariances of temperature and specific humidity among convective, near-neutral, and stable boundary layers and between high-vertical-resolution radiosonde data (;5–6 m) and the ERA5 reanalysis data at 119 Chinese radiosonde stations in the summers of 2021–23. The PBL heights in the radiosonde profiles differ greatly from those in the ERA5 reanalysis data, with 137 vertical levels. The PBL heights calculated from the radiosonde profiles at the thinned resolution, which is the same as that of ERA5 but adds a vertical level in the middle of each ERA5 layer, approximate reasonably well to those determined from the original higher vertical resolution profiles. The autocovariances and cross-covariances of temperature and specific humidity in the low troposphere calculated from data with convective PBLs are broader and extend into levels higher than those of near-neutral and stable PBLs. The covariance matrices of the ERA5 are generally consistent in pattern but weak in magnitude with those from radiosonde observations. This study reveals the importance of having a sufficiently high vertical resolution in the low troposphere to simulate PBL heights accurately and to obtain three separate covariance matrices that describe temperature and specific humidity in the different PBLs. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Atmosphere Boundary layer Data assimilation Radiosonde/rawinsonde observations Reanalysis data

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Interdecadal Pacific oscillation phase dominants near-term global monsoon precipitation changes

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Environmental Research Letters 2025年第6期20卷 064002-064002页

作者： Jiang, Jie Zhou, Tianjun State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100029 China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China

Precipitation is projected to increase in response to human-induced global warming over global monsoon region, with significant implications for water resources in these densely populated areas. While most climate models agree on the externally forced wetting signal in global monsoon precipitation (GMP), the chaotic nature of internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty in future projections, particularly in the near term. In this study, we utilize multi-model simulations and four sets of large-ensemble simulations to investigate the role of internal variability, particularly the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), in influencing uncertainty in future monsoon precipitation changes. We find that the externally forced wetting trend in GMP surpasses the range of internal variability only after the 2040s under both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Prior to this, internal variability contributes over 40% of the uncertainty in GMP projections, with the IPO accounting for nearly half of this internally induced uncertainty. To inform adaptation and mitigation efforts, we further propose near-term storylines of monsoon precipitation changes at both global and regional scales. Specifically, a transition from a negative to a positive phase of the IPO at a rate of +1 SD per decade during 2021-2040 leads to a decrease in GMP by −0.41% (−0.23%) per decade relative to 1995-2014 under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario, while the reverse transition leads to an increase of 1.35% (1.53%) per decade. These findings underscore the need to account for the impacts of the IPO in near-term climate change planning for monsoon-affected regions. © 2025 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.

关键词： Global warming

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Machine learning for membrane bioreactor research:principles,methods,applications,and a tutorial

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2025年第3期19卷 119-144页

作者： Yizhe Lai Kang Xiao Yifan He Xian Liu Jihua Tan Wenchao Xue Aiqian Zhang Xia Huang Beijing Yanshan Earth Critical Zone National Research Station College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China Environmental Chemistry Faculty College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China State Key Laboratory of Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China Department of Energy Environmentand Climate ChangeSchool of EnvironmentResourcesand DevelopmentAsian Institute of TechnologyP.O.Box 4Klong LuangPathumthani 12120Thailand State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Membrane fouling poses a significant challenge to the sustainable development of membrane bioreactor(MBR)technologies for wastewater *** accurate prediction of the membrane filtration process is of great importance for identifying and controlling *** learning methods address the limitations of traditional statistical approaches,such as low accuracy,poor generalization ability,and slow convergence,particularly in predicting complex filtration and fouling processes within the realm of big *** article provides an in-depth exposition of machine learning *** study then reviews advances in MBRs that utilize machine learning methods,including artificial neural networks(ANN),support vector machines(SVM),decision trees,and ensemble *** on current literature,this study summarizes and compares the model input and output characteristics(including foulant characteristics,solution environments,filtration conditions,operating conditions,and time factors),as well as the selection of models and optimization *** modeling procedures of SVM,random forest(RF),back propagation neural network(BPNN),long short-term memory(LSTM),and genetic algorithm-back propagation(GA-BP)methods are elucidated through a tutorial *** simulation results demonstrated that all five methods yielded accurate predictions with R2>***,the existing challenges in the implementation of machine learning models in MBRs were *** is notable that integration of deep learning,automated machine learning(AutoML)and explainable artificial intelligence(XAI)may facilitate the deployment of models in practical engineering *** insights presented here are expected to facilitate the establishment of an intelligent control framework for MBR processes in future endeavors.

关键词： Membrane bioreactor Machine learning Pollutant removal Membrane fouling Model prediction

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Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion with cuckoo algorithm

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Acta Geophysica Sinica 2025年第4期68卷 1511-1520页

作者： Li, Jin Zhang, Huai Shi, YaoLin National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408 China Guangdong Zhuhai519080 China Beijing Yanshan Earth Critical Zone National Research Station University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408 China

Due to the incompleteness of actual geophysical survey data, including geophysical gravitational, magnetic, electrical and seismic measurements, and low signal-to-noise ratio of partial data, the traditional inversion theories based on Tikhonov regularization face issues such as low resolution and poor adaptability. In recent years, stochastic inversion, represented by Bayesian inversion, has become increasingly mature. This method offers advantages of the higher resolution of inversion results, better global convergence and easier combination with artificial intelligence (AI), compensating for the shortcomings of traditional algorithms. The main bottleneck of the Bayesian inversion method lies in a large amount of calculation, slow and unstable convergence of the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. In this paper, the target parameters of geophysical inversion are constructed under the framework of Bayesian inversion. By the physical relationship between the data and the parameters to be inverted, based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, the cuckoo algorithm is introduced to optimize sampling, and the inversion of the gravity field and the average velocity of seismic wave is realized, and compared with traditional inversion methods. The results show that method we proposed has higher accuracy, faster convergence and better stability than the traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion method, which provides a new idea and a new approach for realizing the nonlinear inversion theory combining Tikhonov regularization and stochastic inversion in geophysical inversion in the future. © 2025 Editorial Office of Chinese Journal of Geophysics. All rights reserved.

关键词： Markov chains

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Impact of refined oceanic model resolution on the simulation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in LICOM3

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年

作者： Wang, Xiaowei Yu, Yongqiang Yu, Zipeng Lin, Pengfei National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility Beijing China

The present study compares the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the North Atlantic from two simulations by an oceanic general circulation model with 1° × 1° and 0.1° × 0.1° resolution, respectively, which explores the sensitivity of AMOC to the resolution. The ocean model is the latest version of the LASG/IAP Climate system Model (LICOM3), and it is forced with atmospheric data from phase 2 of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP2). Comprehensive comparison between the two simulations indicates that the simulated AMOC is highly sensitive to the spatial resolution. The high-resolution model (LICOM-H) simulates a deeper mixed-layer depth (MLD), due to increased surface salinity, than that in the low-resolution model (LICOM-L) in the Labrador Sea, and it also has stronger AMOC strength (the maximum climatic mean AMOC from 1958 to 2018 is 23.4 Sv for LICOM-H and 21.2 Sv for LICOM-L) and larger variability of AMOC index (2.3 Sv for LICOM-H and 1.7 Sv for LICOM-L). These differences can mainly be attributed to two main dynamic processes that benefit from high resolution. Firstly, LICOM-H can simulate much stronger boundary currents (∼0.6 m s⁻¹) than LICOM-L (0.3 m s⁻¹) in the upper ocean, which leads to saltier and warmer seawater being transported to the Labrador Sea, where it enhances deep convection. Secondly, in LICOM-H, the stronger variability of AMOC is related to the higher sensitivity of the MLD and transformation to the prescribed atmospheric forcing in the Labrador Sea. 摘要本研究关注大西洋经圈翻转环流 (AMOC) 对分辨率的敏感性, 比较了大气物理研究所自主发展的海洋环流模式LICOM (LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model) 不同分辨率版本对AMOC的模拟结果, 两个版本分辨率分别为1° × 1°和0.1° × 0.1°.LICOM高分辨版本模拟的AMOC强度和变率较低分辨率版本明显增加, 而且在拉布拉多海也模拟出了更深的混合层深度.在上层海洋, 高分辨率版本可以模拟比低分辨率版本强得多的边界流, 这导致更多高盐海水被输送到拉布拉多海, 增强了该区域的深对流.在高分辨率版本中, AMOC较强的变率与拉布拉多海混合层深度较高的变率和模式对大气强迫更敏感的响应有关. © 2025

关键词： Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Eddy-resolving ocean model North Atlantic Transformation

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