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arXiv 2025年

作者： Yao, Wuqiushi Lu, Jianhua Liu, Yimin Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Zhuhai China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The seasonality of the tropical meridional circulation evolves differently across different regions, governs the onset and retreat of monsoons and migration of tropical precipitation, thereby influencing agricultural productivity and disaster preparedness in the tropics and subtropics. By defining a pseudo meridional overturning streamfunction (Ψpseudo) and defining a new vector-type, dual-component index (ASCI), we diagnose zonally asymmetric abrupt seasonal change (ASC) of tropical meridional circulation. Ψpseudo converges to traditional, meridional overturning streamfunction (Ψm) after being averaged over a zonal circle around any latitude. By applying the Helmholtz decomposition to horizontal velocity fields so as to decompose Ψpseudo into rotational and divergent components, we quantitatively compare the contributions of horizontally rotational and divergent flows to the abrupt seasonal change. We find that the zonal sectors associated with strong deep convection exhibit the most pronounced ASC of tropical meridional circulation, and all of subregions exhibiting ASC contain landmass with low heat inertia. Particularly, in contrast to the case of zonally symmetric Hadley cell, rotational flow, rather than the thermal-direct divergent flow, dominates the zonally asymmetric ASC in the tropics, although the divergent flow also contributes to the ASC over the zonal sectors associated with deep convection. We suggest that the interplay between tropical Rossby-type eddies with extratropical eddies and tropical circulation is essential to the zonally asymmetric ASC of tropical Hadley circulation. © 2025, CC BY-NC-ND.

关键词： Rotational flow

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Differentiated Cloud-Radiation Characteristics over East Asian Subtropical and Tropical Regions Revealed by CMIP6 Models

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2025年第1期31卷 43-63页

作者： WU Rui-xue LI Jian-dong XU Jian-jun ZHANG Yu LIAO Xiao-qing LIU Chun-lei DU Zhen-cai Laboratory for Coastal Ocean Variation and Disaster Prediction College of Ocean and MeteorologyGuangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiangGuangdong 524088 China CMA-GDOU Joint Laboratory for Marine Meteorology South China Sea Institute of Marine MeteorologyGuangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiangGuangdong 524088 China National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100029 China Shenzhen Institute of Guangdong Ocean University ShenzhenGuangdong 518120 China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China

Pronounced climatic differences occur over subtropical South China(SC)and tropical South China Sea(SCS)and understanding the key cloud-radiation characteristics is essential to simulating East Asian *** study investigated cloud fractions and cloud radiative effects(CREs)over SC and SCS simulated by CMIP6 atmospheric *** differences in cloud-radiation characteristics appeared over these two *** observations,considerable amounts of low-middle level clouds and cloud radiative cooling effect appeared over *** contrast,high clouds prevailed over SCS,where longwave and shortwave CREs offset each other,resulting in a weaker net cloud radiative effect(NCRE).The models underestimated NCRE over SC mainly due to weaker shortwave CRE and less cloud ***,most models overestimated NCRE over SCS because of stronger shortwave CRE and weaker longwave *** CREs were closely linked to their dominant cloud *** observations and simulations showed a negative spatial correlation between total(low)cloud fraction and shortwave CRE over SC,especially in winter,and exhibited a positive correlation between high cloud fraction and longwave CRE over these two *** with SCS,most models overestimated the spatial correlation between low(high)cloud fraction and SWCRE(LWCRE)over SC,with larger bias ranges among models,indicating the exaggerated cloud radiative cooling(warming)effect caused by low(high)***,most models struggled to describe regional ascent and its connection with CREs over SC while they can better reproduce these connections over *** study further suggests that reasonable circulation conditions are crucial to simulating well cloud-radiation characteristics over the East Asian regions.

关键词： cloud fraction cloud radiative effect CMIP6 model South China South China Sea

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Net surface energy flux over the globe and Asian monsoon region in CMIP6 high-resolution models

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Climate Dynamics 2025年第5期63卷 1-23页

作者： Liao, Xiaoqing Li, Jiandong Liu, Chunlei Allan, Richard P. Liu, Yimin Cao, Ning Laboratory for Coastal Ocean Variation and Disaster Prediction College of Ocean and Meteorology Guangdong Ocean University Zhanjiang China Key Laboratory of Climate Resources and Environment in Continental Shelf Sea and Deep Sea of Department of Education of Guangdong Province Guangdong Ocean University Zhanjiang China State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology Guangdong Ocean University Zhanjiang China Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB United Kingdom National Centre for Earth Observation Reading United Kingdom

The net surface energy flux (Fs) is critical to the earth’s energy budget and surface processes, but there are still simulation uncertainties at global and regional scales. This study investigates simulated Fs biases... 详细信息

The net surface energy flux (F_s) is critical to the earth’s energy budget and surface processes, but there are still simulation uncertainties at global and regional scales. This study investigates simulated F_s biases and sources over the Asian monsoon region (AMR) in CMIP6 HighResMIP atmospheric models. The global state is investigated first to check if there is any systematic model bias which can affect the AMR as well. In the AMR, the F_s is predominantly upward during winter and downward during summer owing to the seasonal variation in SW_s and THF. 95% of the winter F_s bias over the AMR comes from THF, primarily because of the latent heat flux bias. SW_s and THF contribute 40–90% and 70–90%, respectively, to the summer F_s bias. The systematic biases of SW_s and LW_s can be attributed to biases in circulation patterns and cloud cover, whereas biases in THF are influenced primarily by near-surface processes. The high-resolution models perform well in terms of F_s, THF, and the circulation (wind speed at 850 hPa and 10 m) in the low-level troposphere, particularly in winter. The winter multimodel mean error is reduced by 21.5–63.6% in F_s and 25.5–76.7% in THF across the three AMR subregions. Seven out of the nine high-resolution models have higher skill scores for winter F_s and THF than their low-resolution counterparts do in South Asia (SA), with corresponding model numbers of 8 (F_s) and 7 (THF) in East Asia (EA) and the western North Pacific (WNP). This study reveals the advantages of increased horizonal resolution in F_s simulations. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025.

关键词： Asian monsoon region CMIP6 Model Net surface heat flux

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Air–sea interactions amplified by tropical cyclones break the South China Sea summer monsoon

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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2025年第1期8卷 1-8页

作者： Bi, Minghao Xu, Ke Lu, Riyu State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Summer monsoon breaks can have far-reaching impacts by triggering abnormal weather both locally and remotely. However, their formation mechanisms remain incompletely understood, with intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) widely recognized as a primary driver. This study investigates South China Sea monsoon break events and finds that 72.9% originate from the Philippine Sea, associated with ISOs, while the residual 27.1% are locally generated, which have yet to be elucidated previously. Our results suggest that these locally generated events are often preceded by anomalously active tropical cyclones, which amplify in situ air–sea interaction, inducing SST cooling that increases large-scale atmospheric stability, thereby promoting monsoon break establishment. Moreover, differing from ISO-related monsoon breaks that increase precipitation over the Yangtze River Valley, locally generated breaks induce significant warming over South China. The diverse mechanisms and climate impacts of monsoon breaks revealed in this study may provide new insights for further improvement of subseasonal predictions. © The Author(s) 2025.

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High-impact Extreme Weather and Climate Events in China:Summer 2024 Overview

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第06期 1064-1076页

作者： Xingyan ZHOU Ying LI Chan XIAO Wei CHEN Mei MEI Guofu WANG Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

In the summer of 2024, following a strong El Ni?o event in the preceding winter, the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical North Atlantic recorded their highest SSTs since 1961, along with a significant westward shift and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH). Under these conditions, China experienced its hottest summer since 1961,and was hit by a series of high-impact extreme weather and climate events. From 9 June to 2 July, southern China experienced an unprecedented extreme precipitation event that exceeded the well-known 1998 summer precipitation event in both duration and impact scope, resulting in devastating floods in the Yangtze River basin. Subsequently, in early to midJuly, the Huanghe-Huaihe Basin suffered from a severe drought–flood abrupt alternation event, heavily affecting Henan and Shandong. Meanwhile, southern China underwent a widespread heatwave event lasting 74 days, ranking as the second most intense since 1961. From late July to the end of August, northern China faced unusually frequent heavy precipitation events, with cumulative precipitation reaching the second highest for the same period since 1961, causing floods in many rivers of northern China. This study provides a timely summary and assessment of the characteristics and impacts of these extreme events. It serves as a reference for climate change research, including mechanism analysis, numerical simulation,and climate event attribution, and also offers valuable insights for improving meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

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Spring Rapid Temperature Variability in Southern China: Characteristics, Decadal Trend and Associated Climate Impacts on Crop Yield

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International Journal of Climatology 2025年

作者： Yang, Xianke Zhang, Yixuan Tang, Haosu Huang, Ping Ling, Xiaoxia Peng, Shaobing Xiong, Dongliang MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River College of Plant Science and Technology Huazhong Agricultural University Hubei China Climate Center of Hubei Province Hubei Meteorological Bureau Hubei China Department of Geography University of Sheffield Sheffield United Kingdom Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Climate-related risks are shaped not only by changes in mean temperatures, but also by temperature variability, which raises the likelihood of extreme weather events with profound impacts on society and ecosystems. Previous studies have documented contrasting seasonal trend differences in summer and winter temperature variability across most land areas. However, spring—a phenologically sensitive season for agricultural systems—has received limited attention for its temperature variability. Focusing on the major rice-growing regions in southern China, this study employs three indices—daily temperature standard deviation (STD), day-to-day temperature variability (DTD) and rapid cooling events (RCE)—to analyse the decadal trends and causes of spring temperature variability and assess its climate effects on rice yield anomalies. Our results reveal decadal trends in the spatial distribution of temperature variability, with increasing frequency and intensity in the Yangtze River Basin and Yunnan Province, and a decreasing trend across much of South China, closely following regional climatological patterns. Overall, the frequency and intensity of RCE trend exhibit a "strong gets weaker, weak gets stronger" pattern, likely linked to increased STD trends caused by spatial non-uniformity of warming. Through a multiple regression statistical model employing dominance analysis, we find that climate factors, including both mean climate and climate variability, explained 19%–45% of the variance in provincial rice yield anomalies, with up to 13% of the explained variance attributable to spring climate factors related to temperature variability. This study underscores the critical role of spring temperature variability in climate resilience, highlights the urgent need to enhance the adaptability of agricultural systems to extreme climate events. © 2025 Royal Meteorological Society.

关键词： Logistic regression

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Thermal Evolution Controls the Pore Structure of Deformed Shale in Southern North China Basin

SSRN

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SSRN 2025年

作者： Wang, Peng Ju, Yiwen Yao, Yanbin Li, Yong Xiao, Lei Wang, Wei Gao, Jian Chen, Renzhe Guan, Peiyun Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China School of Energy Resources China University of Geosciences Beijing100083 China State Key Laboratory Coal Resources and Safe Mining China University of Mining and Technology Beijing100049 China

The porosity characteristics of tectonically deformed shale are generally considered to be primarily governed by deformation intensity, often overlooking the influence of thermal evolution. This study examines the effects and mechanisms of thermal evolution on the pore structure of deformed shale from the Huaibei mining area in the southern North China Craton. Utilizing core sample observations, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, high-pressure mercury intrusion, low-temperature nitrogen adsorption, carbon dioxide adsorption, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, we found that the pore structure predominantly consists of micropores and transitional pores, with a limited presence of mesopores and macropores, as well as extensive microfractures. The results indicate that pore characteristics are significantly influenced by thermal evolution;as thermal maturation progresses, the total porosity, micropore count, and transitional pore count increase, leading to an enlarged specific surface area, more complex pore architecture, and enhanced connectivity. This enhancement arises from the thermal degradation of macromolecular structures in shale, where hydrocarbon and inorganic gas exsolution generates organic matter-derived pores, primarily micropores, while macromolecular shrinkage creates transitional pores smaller than 20 nm. Importantly, tectonic deformation occurs prior to the peak of hydrocarbon generation, allowing for the continued formation and retention of pores after hydrocarbon production. © 2025, The Authors. All rights reserved.

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A Year Marked by Extreme Precipitation and Floods:Weather and Climate Extremes in 2024

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第06期 1045-1063页

作者： Wenxia ZHANG Tianjun ZHOU Wanheng YE Tingyu ZHANG Lixia ZHANG Piotr WOLSKI James RISBEY Zhuo WANG Seung-Ki MIN Hamish RAMSAY Michael BRODY Alice GRIMM Robin CLARK Kangnian REN Jie JIANG Xiaolong CHEN Shenming FU Lan LI Shijie TANG Shuai HU Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate System Analysis Group University of Cape Town Rondebosch Cape Town CSIRO Environment Department of Climate Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois Urbana–Champaign Division of Environmental Science and Engineering Pohang University of Science and Technology Institute for Convergence Research and Education in Advanced Technology Yonsei University International Agricultural University George Mason University Department of Physics Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPR) Centro Politécnico da UFPR Met Office Hadley Centre

This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global ***, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes.

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Soil microbial biomass P status affecting P runoff loss from paddy fields under different agricultural practices

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Science of the Total Environment 2025年 967卷 178828页

作者： Liao, Chujie Wang, Yi Wang, Meihui Li, Yong Wu, Jinshui Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Resources Use in Beibu Gulf Nanning Normal University Ministry of Education Nanning530001 China College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering Ludong University Yantai264025 China Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100029 China Key Laboratory of Agro-ecological Processes in Subtropical Region and Changsha Research Station for Agricultural & Environmental Monitoring Institute of Subtropical Agriculture Chinese Academy of Sciences Changsha410125 China

Phosphorus (P) runoff loss in agroecosystems is known to be soil-dependent. While the physicochemical processes of P runoff have been extensively studied, there is a lack of research on its microbial effects. This study investigated variations in P runoff loss, soil P fractions, and microbial biomass (MB) across 11 different agricultural treatments in a long-term positioning experiment of double-cropping rice cultivation. Results revealed a P-deficient state in the paddy soil, with an average total soil P content (TSP) of 0.55 g kg−1 and Olsen-P of 9.17 mg kg−1 across all treatments. Among the treatments, application of pig manure equivalent to 50 % conventional nitrogen resulted in the highest soil MB, soil P fractions, and flow-weighted dissolved-P (DP_wc) and total-P (TP_wc) concentrations in surface runoff water. Conversely, the treatment without P fertilizer application showed the lowest values. While long-term agricultural practices profoundly affected the characteristics of soil MB, soil P status, and P runoff loss, a common pattern emerged across all treatments. Specifically, all treatments exhibited wider ranges of soil microbial carbon (C):P ratio (MBC:P) (48.49–175.95) and soil microbial nitrogen (N):P ratio (MBN:P) (3.83–12.56) compared to soil microbial C:N ratio (MBC:N) (9.55–20.12). Additionally, soil P fractions decreased in the order of TSP > Citrate-P > Olsen-P > Enzyme-P, and the average DP_wc (0.12 mg L−1) accounted for approximately one-fourth of the average TP_wc (0.48 mg L−1), suggesting a critical and similar mechanism for paddy soil P runoff loss. The addition of exogenous C and P created favorable conditions for microbial growth, leading to increased MBP and subsequently elevated soil P contents, particularly Olsen-P. However, the structural equation model (SEM) analysis revealed that the mediation effect of MBP and MBN:P weakened the relationships between agronomic practices and P runoff losses, with the path coefficient decreasing from 0.

关键词： Exogenous P addition Flow-weighted concentrations MBP P-poor agroecosystem Soil P fractions

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Predicting on the Extreme Precipitation in East and Southeast Asia during Summer 2022 from the Antecedent Soil Temperature Anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Climate 2025年第9期38卷 2109-2128页

作者： Kong, Xianghui Wang, Aihui Xue, Yongkang Wei, Nan Zhang, He Hu, Qin He, Juanxiong Bi, Xunqiang Chen, Yue Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technology Sichuan Province Chengdu China University of California Los AngelesCA United States School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University Zhuhai China International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information Technology Sichuan Province Chengdu China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National Super Computer Center in Tianjin Tianjin China State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

It has demonstrated that May land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can serve as a predictor of June precipitation in downstream *** summer 2022, there was heavy precipitation (severe drought) in June (August) over southern China, coinciding with high May (July) LST/SUBT anomalies in *** the framework of the Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P), this study explores the causality between 2022 May (July) TP LST/SUBT and June (August) precipitation using an ensemble of land–atmosphere coupled model *** show that model prediction with imposed strongly positive May TP LST/SUBT (i.e., a triple) anomaly could produce 67% (46%) of June precipitation anomalies in South (northeast) China, while sea surface temperature (SST) effects account for 5% (51%).The atmosphere condensation heating and surface sensible heating due to TP LST/SUBT anomaly induce anomalous South Asian high, which moves eastward along with the Rossby ***, the above process enhances upward motion, convective instability, and water vapor transport, eventually be favorable for rainfall formation in South China and northeast *** Southeast Asia, it makes a downward movement, decrease in atmospheric water vapor, and unfavorable to the occurrence of ***, July TP LST/SUBT contributes to the prediction skill for August record-breaking drought in southern *** to SST effects, it is found that TP LST/SUBT effects significantly enhance the prediction skill for downstream region, suggesting that the TP land contributes an important source for subseasonal climate prediction. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Rivers

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