版权所有:内蒙古大学图书馆 技术提供:维普资讯• 智图
内蒙古自治区呼和浩特市赛罕区大学西街235号 邮编: 010021
T=题名(书名、题名),A=作者(责任者),K=主题词,P=出版物名称,PU=出版社名称,O=机构(作者单位、学位授予单位、专利申请人),L=中图分类号,C=学科分类号,U=全部字段,Y=年(出版发行年、学位年度、标准发布年)
AND代表“并且”;OR代表“或者”;NOT代表“不包含”;(注意必须大写,运算符两边需空一格)
范例一:(K=图书馆学 OR K=情报学) AND A=范并思 AND Y=1982-2016
范例二:P=计算机应用与软件 AND (U=C++ OR U=Basic) NOT K=Visual AND Y=2011-2016
Precipitation is projected to increase in response to human-induced global warming over global monsoon region, with significant implications for water resources in these densely populated areas. While most climate models agree on the externally forced wetting signal in global monsoon precipitation (GMP), the chaotic nature of internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty in future projections, particularly in the near term. In this study, we utilize multi-model simulations and four sets of large-ensemble simulations to investigate the role of internal variability, particularly the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), in influencing uncertainty in future monsoon precipitation changes. We find that the externally forced wetting trend in GMP surpasses the range of internal variability only after the 2040s under both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Prior to this, internal variability contributes over 40% of the uncertainty in GMP projections, with the IPO accounting for nearly half of this internally induced uncertainty. To inform adaptation and mitigation efforts, we further propose near-term storylines of monsoon precipitation changes at both global and regional scales. Specifically, a transition from a negative to a positive phase of the IPO at a rate of +1 SD per decade during 2021–2040 leads to a decrease in GMP by −0.41% (−0.23%) per decade relative to 1995–2014 under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario, while the reverse transition leads to an increase of 1.35% (1.53%) per decade. These findings underscore the need to account for the impacts of the IPO in near-term climate change planning for monsoon-affected regions.
电话和邮箱必须正确填写,我们会与您联系确认。
版权所有:内蒙古大学图书馆 技术提供:维普资讯• 智图
内蒙古自治区呼和浩特市赛罕区大学西街235号 邮编: 010021
暂无评论