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Critical environmental factors affecting mountain geohazards in a warming climate in Southwest China

Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第4期15卷 695-707页

作者： Xiao-Ming XU Peng CUI Xue-Qin ZHANG Key Lab of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 10010lChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences and Higher Education CommissionIslamabad 45320Pakistan

Environmental factors are essential input variables for susceptibility assessment models of mountain ***,the existing literature provides a limited understanding of the relative contribution of these factors to the occurrence of geohazards with a warming climate,posing tremendous challenges for risk management in mountainous ***'an city is susceptible to hazards because of its steep terrain,abundant precipitation and active seismic *** this regard,we utilise the GeoDetector model to extract critical environmental factors affecting the spatial patterns of mountain geohazards(i.e.,landslide,debris flow and rockfall)in Southwest *** analysis indicates that the factors with the highest explanatory power for the spatial distribution of landslides,debris flows,and rockfalls are soil property,extreme precipitation and extreme temperature,***,we revealed the synergistic effects among factors given their larger q-value than individual *** further explored the responses of mountain geohazards to climate change,including the rising temperature and precipitation,because the frequent occurrence of mountain geohazards is closely related to a warming *** variation in snow water equivalent caused by antecedent snowfall and snowdrifts acts as a crucial indicator for geohazards,highlighting the significance of snow and wind observations in meteorological nowcasting and disaster *** disclose the phenomenon of the geohazard hysteresis to the precipitation peak resulting from the top-down(i.e.,precipitation-runoff and surface-deep soil moisture)peak *** work is expected to enhance the precision of susceptibility assessment models and the reliability of short-term forecasts for mountain geohazards.

关键词： Mountain geohazards Environmental factors Climate change GeoDetector Southwest China

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Monthly variations of groundwater arsenic risk under future climate scenarios in 2081–2100

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Environmental Science and Pollution Research 2023年第58期30卷 122230-122244页

作者： Wei, Binggan Yin, Shuhui Yu, Jiangping Yang, linsheng Wen, Qiqian Wang, Ting Yuan, Xing Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences 11 A Datun Road Beijing100101 China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China

The seasonal variations of shallow groundwater arsenic have been widely documented. To gain insight into the monthly variations and mechanisms behind high groundwater arsenic and arsenic exposure risk in different climate scenarios, the monthly probability of high groundwater arsenic in Hetao Basin was simulated through random forest model. The model was based on arsenic concentrations obtained from 566 groundwater sample sites, and the variables considered included soil properties, climate, topography, and landform parameters. The results revealed that spatial patterns of high groundwater arsenic showed some fluctuations among months under different future climate scenarios. The probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic was found to be elevated at the start of the rainy season, only to rapidly decrease with increasing precipitation and temperature. The probability then increased again after the rainy season. The areas with an increased probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic and arsenic exposure risk under SSP126 were typically found in the high-arsenic areas of 2019, while those with decreased probabilities were observed in low-arsenic areas. Under SSP585, which involves a significant increase in precipitation and temperature, the probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic and arsenic exposure risk was widely reduced. However, the probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic and arsenic exposure risk was mainly observed in low-arsenic areas from SSP126 to SSP585. In conclusion, the consumption of groundwater for human and livestock drinking remains a threat to human health due to high arsenic exposure under future climate scenarios. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.

关键词： Groundwater

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Ecological changes and the tradeoff and synergy of ecosystem services in western China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第6期32卷 1059-1075页

作者： NIU linan SHAO Quanqin NING Jia HUANG Haibo Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Since the implementation of the Development of Western Regions in 2000,a series of major ecological construction projects have been implemented,leading to a series of changes in the ecological conditions and ecological services of western *** study calculated the amount of ecosystem services in total in the western region from 2000 to 2019,and analyzed ecological changes and the characteristics of spatio-temporal variations in ecological services.A relevant analysis method was applied to explore the tradeoff and synergy of *** was found that the area of settlements and wetland ecosystems in the western region increased significantly from 2000 to 2015,whereas grassland showed a downward trend year by *** vegetation fraction showed a decreasing belt-like distribution from south to *** showed a fluctuating increase during 2000 to 2019,with inter-annual and large spatial *** water conservation service(WCS)had a slight downward trend from 2000 to 2019,and the main decreasing areas were distributed in southeastern Tibet,the western part of the Three Rivers Source region,and the karst rocky desertification *** soil conservation service(SCS)showed an increasing but fluctuating trend,with the greatest increases observed in the loess Plateau region,western Sichuan and Yunnan,northwest Tibet,and southeast *** windbreak and sand fixation service(SFS)showed a downward trend,and the sharp decline was mainly in the central and western parts of Inner Mongolia,Tibet and parts of northern *** supply and WCS,and SCS were mainly synergistic,which were found in areas north of the Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River(QM-HR)line,especially in Ningxia and Inner *** supply was mainly tradeoffs with SFS,and it was found in the agriculture-pastoral transition *** synergistic degree of ecosystem services in areas subjected to ecological engineering policy was greater than that in non-engineering *** asse

关键词： ecosystem services tradeoff and synergy western region Western Development Strategy

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Contributions of climate change to cereal yields in Tibet, 1993–2017

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第1期32卷 101-116页

作者： DING Rui SHI Wenjiao Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Climate change is a global environmental crisis, but there have been few studies of the effects of climate change on cereal yields on the Tibetan Plateau. We used data from meteorological stations and statistical yearbooks to assess the impacts of climate change on cereal yields in Tibet. Three types of statistical models were selected: fixed-effects model, first-difference models, and linear detrending models. We analyzed the impacts of climate change(including the minimum temperature, precipitation, growing degree days and solar radiation) on cereal yields in Tibet from 1993 to 2017 at the county, prefecture-level city, and autonomous region scales. The results showed that the sensitivity of cereal yields in Tibet to temperature(minimum temperature and growing degree days) was greater than their sensitivity to precipitation and solar radiation. The joint impacts of climate variables were positive, but the sensitivity and significance varied in different regions. The impacts of minimum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were positive in all cities, apart from the negative impacts of growing degree days on cereal yields in lhasa. The impacts of climate trends on cereal yields in Tibet were positive and the results were in the range of 1.5%–4.8%. Among the three types of model, the fixed-effects model was the most robust and the linear detrending model performed better than the first-difference model. The robustness of the first-difference model decreased after adding the interaction terms between different climate variables. Our findings will help in implementing more spatially targeted agricultural adaptations to cope with the impacts of climate change on the agro-ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau climate change statistical model cereal yields

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Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 547-556页

作者： Ai-Qing FENG Qing-Chen CHAO lu-lu lIU Ge GAO Guo-Fu WANG Xue-Jun ZHANG Qi-Guang WANG China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038China China Meteorological Administration Training Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic ***,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal *** integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were *** findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial *** July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,*** 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by *** towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the *** findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

关键词： Compound extreme event Joint return period Drought Heatwave Climate change Yangtze River Basin

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Modern pollen assemblages of the surface lake sediments from the steppe and desert zones of the Tibetan Plateau

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Science China Earth Sciences 2021年第3期64卷 425-439页

作者： Feng QIN Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China

Modern pollen analysis is the basis for revealing the palaeovegetation and palaeoclimate changes from fossil pollen *** studies pertaining to the modern pollen assemblages on the Tibetan Plateau have been conducted,but little attention has been paid to pollen assemblages of surface lake *** this study,modern pollen assemblages of surface lake sediments from 34 lakes in the steppe and desert zones of the Tibetan Plateau are investigated and results indicate that the two vegetation zones are dominated by non-arboreal pollen taxa and show distinctive *** pollen assemblages from the desert zone contain substantially high relative abundance of Chenopodiaceae while those from the steppe zone are dominated by *** ratios show great potential in terms of separating different vegetation zones and to indicate climate changes on the Tibetan *** Artemisia/Chenopodiaceae ratio and arboreal/non-arboreal pollen ratio could be used as proxies for winter ***/Cyperaceae ratio and the sum of relative abundance of xerophilous elements increase with enhanced warming and *** considering the vegetation coverage around the lakes,hierarchical cluster analysis suggests that the studied sites can be divided into four clusters:meadow,steppe,desert-steppe,and *** pollen-based vegetation classification models are established using a random forest *** random forest model can effectively separate the modern pollen assemblages of the steppe zone from those of the desert zone on the Tibetan *** model for distinguishing the four vegetation clusters shows a weaker but still valid classifying *** is expected that the random forest model can provide a powerful tool to reconstruct the palaeovegetation succession on the Tibetan Plateau when more pollen data from surface lake sediments are included.

关键词： Modern pollen assemblage Tibetan Plateau surface lake sediment Pollen-climate relationship Pollen-based vegetation classification model

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Progress on spatial prediction methods for soil particle-size fractions

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2023年第7期33卷 1553-1566页

作者： SHI Wenjiao ZHANG Mo Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation of CAS Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Soil particle-size fractions(PSFs),including three components of sand,silt,and clay,are very improtant for the simulation of land-surface process and the evaluation of ecosystem *** spatial prediction of soil PSFs can help better understand the simulation processes of these *** soil PSFs are compositional data,there are some special demands such as the constant sum(1 or 100%) in the interpolation *** addition,the performance of spatial prediction methods can mostly affect the accuracy of the spatial ***,we proposed a framework for the spatial prediction of soil *** included log-ratio transformation methods of soil PSFs(additive log-ratio,centered log-ratio,symmetry log-ratio,and isometric log-ratio methods),interpolation methods(geostatistical methods,regression models,and machine learning models),validation methods(probability sampling,data splitting,and cross-validation) and indices of accuracy assessments in soil PSF interpolation and soil texture classification(rank correlation coefficient,mean error,root mean square error,mean absolute error,coefficient of determination,Aitchison distance,standardized residual sum of squares,overall accuracy,Kappa coefficient,and Precision-Recall curve) and uncertainty analysis indices(prediction and confidence intervals,standard deviation,and confusion index).Moreover,we summarized several paths on improving the accuracy of soil PSF interpolation,such as improving data distribution through effective data transformation,choosing appropriate prediction methods according to the data distribution,combining auxiliary variables to improve mapping accuracy and distribution rationality,improving interpolation accuracy using hybrid models,and developing multi-component joint *** the future,we should pay more attention to the principles and mechanisms of data transformation,joint simulation models and high accuracy surface modeling methods for multi-components,as well as the combi

关键词： soil interpolation spatial accuracy geostatistics machine learning high accuracy surface modeling

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Uncertainty of temperature rise under nationally determined contributions and carbon neutral policies

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第4期14卷 580-586页

作者： Jie-Wei CHEN Hui-Juan CUI Nan CHEN Guo-Qiang QIAN Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Sino Carbon Innovation&Investment Co. Ltd.Beijing 100007China

Nationally determined contributions raised by Paris Agreement aim to control the temperature rise below 2°C or even 1.5°C at the end of the 21st century,compared to pre-industrial ***,the climate response of the Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)remains uncertain due to unstable policies and their *** this study,we calculated the uncertainty of global temperature rise caused by uncertain NDCs and carbon-neutral policies and discussed the difficulty of policy *** results show that there will be 8 GtC uncertainty in emission at the end of the 21st century,responsible for the temperature rise of 0.37°C(1.73–2.10°C).A delayed policy in emission reduction by major emitters would result in a temperature rise of over 2°C,while under non-delay policy,the 2°C target will be possibly ***,low-emission countries would introduce a 30 GtC cumulative emission uncertainty at the end of the 21st century if there are no restrictions,leading to a 0.3°C global warming *** countries need more substantial reductions in carbon intensity to achieve their climate policies while developing countries are under less *** reduction of carbon intensity requires the strengthening of technical and economic *** study provides a reference for the realization of emission policies and temperature rise targets.

关键词： Uncertainty Temperature rise Nationally determined contribution Carbon neutrality Carbon emission intensity

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Paleoclimatic indication of X-ray fluorescence core-scanned Rb/Sr ratios: A case study in the Zoige Basin in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

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Science China Earth Sciences 2021年第1期64卷 80-95页

作者： Hanfei YANG Yan ZHAO Qiaoyu CUI Weihe REN Quan lI Key Laboratory of L and Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

The X-ray fluorescence(XRF)core-scanned Rb/Sr ratios of lake sediments have been widely used as a proxy for chemical weathering intensity and past climate ***,some factors could affect Rb/Sr ratios,causing misinterpretation and limiting its *** this study,we present a high-resolution XRF core-scanned Rb/Sr record of core ZB13-C1 from the Zoige Basin in the eastern Tibetan *** validate its application,we correlated this record with the chemical index of alteration(CIA)and other paleoclimatic *** results showed that(1)the core-scanned Rb/Sr ratios and CIA were reliable proxies of chemical weathering intensity in fine-grained sedimentary sequences;(2)the low values of corescanned Rb/Sr ratios and CIA were significantly correlated with high total organic carbon content,arboreal pollen content,carbonate content,and C/N ratios,confirming its reliability as a proxy for the Asian summer monsoon intensity;(3)the corescanned Rb/Sr ratios at core depths of 25–0.3 and 56–47 m were unable to reliably reflect chemical weathering intensity due to both the grain-size effect and the low test *** study highlights the need for mutual verification of multiple indicators before accurately applying Rb/Sr as a paleoclimatic proxy in other similar study areas.

关键词： Rb/Sr ratios XRF core scanning lake sediment Tibetan Plateau Paleoclimatic indication

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High-frequency climatic fluctuations over the past 30 ka in northwestern margin of the East Asian monsoon region, China

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Journal of Arid land 2022年第12期14卷 1331-1343页

作者： WU Huining CUI Qiaoyu Bailie School of Petroleum Engineering Lanzhou City UniversityLanzhou 730070China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Whether millennial-to centennial-scale climate variations throughout the Holocene convey universal climate change is still widely *** this study,we aimed to obtain a set of high-resolution multi-proxy data(1343 particle size samples,893 total organic carbon samples,and 711 pollen samples)from an alluvial-lacustrine-aeolian sequence based on an improved age-depth model in the northwestern margin of the East Asian monsoon region to explore the dynamics of climate changes over the past 30 *** revealed that the sequence not only documented the major climate events that corresponded well with those reported from the North Atlantic regions but also revealed many marked and high-frequency oscillations at the millennial-and ***,the late stage of the last glacial lasting from 30.1 to 18.1 *** BP was a dry and cold *** deglacial(18.1-11.5 *** BP)was a wetting(probably also warming)period,and three cold and dry excursions were found in the wetting trend,i.e.,the Oldest Dryas(18.1-15.8 *** BP),the Older Dryas(14.6-13.7 *** BP),and the Younger Dryas(12.5-11.5 *** BP).The Holocene can be divided into three portions:the warmest and wettest early portion from 11.5 to 6.7 *** BP,the dramatically cold and dry middle portion from 6.7 to 3.0 *** BP,and the coldest and driest late portion since 3.0 *** *** analysis results on the total pollen concentration revealed five substantially periodicities:c.5500,2200,900,380,and 210 *** the exception of the c.5500 a quasi-cycle that was causally associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation,the other four quasi-cycles(i.e.,c.2200,900,380,and 210 a)were found to be indirectly causally associated with solar *** study provides considerable insight into the dynamic mechanism of the Asian climate on a long-time scale and future climatic change.

关键词： East Asian monsoon region total pollen concentrations climate periodicity millennial-centennial time scale Chinese loess Plateau

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