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The development characteristics and formation modes of rainstorm-triggered flash flood disasters in the Hengduan Mountains

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2025年第3期35卷 619-640页

作者： LI Yifan ZHANG Chendi ZHANG Guotao Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

The Hengduan Mountains region(HMR)is one of the most densely distributed and severe flash flood disaster-prone areas in southwest *** is also a key area for major engineering projects and beautiful countryside construction in Southwest ***,previous studies have not systematically summarized the development characteristics and formation modes of flash flood disasters in the HMR,which limits the development of theoretical and technical system for flood *** this study,we focused on the physical processes of flash flood disasters in the HMR,including generation,movement,and disaster formation,and clarified the dominant disaster-inducing conditions(multiple humid monsoon circulation,high potential energy and high heterogenous underlying surface)and disaster development characteristics(high spatio-temporal heterogeneity,highly concentrated energy,chain and cascading effects,and clustered occurrence)of flash floods in the *** on the entire processes of flash flood disasters,three major formation modes have been summarized:the runoff generation mode of vegetation-hydrology-soil coupling dominated by high hydraulic gradient in mountainous areas,strong flow-sediment coupling movement,and serious disaster losses due to high exposure of disaster bearing ***,based on the issues in previous research,four future research challenges for flash flood disaster in the HMR were *** study provides insights into disaster prevention and reduction research,including fundamental theoretical system,precise risk assessment of regional disasters,and accurate early warning and forecasting of flash floods.

关键词： Hengduan Mountains region rainstorm-triggered flash flood disaster-inducing condition disaster developmentcharacteristic formation mode

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Geochemical characteristics and source analysis of rare earth elements in Qinghai Lake sediments

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Acta Geochimica 2025年第2期44卷 231-246页

作者： Guangying Li Yingyi Meng Jinhan Zhou Di Ming Lijun Dai Lingqing Wang Qinghai Ecological Environment Planning and Environmental Protection Technology Center Xining 810007China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

This study investigates the distribution,geochemical behavior,and potential anthropogenic influences of rare earth elements(REEs)in the surface sediments of Qinghai Lake,the largest saline lake in China.A total of 36 surface sediment samples were analyzed for REE concentrations with a combination of self-organizing maps(SOM)and positive matrix factorization(PMF).Results indicate distinct enrichment patterns,with light REEs(LREEs)exhibiting higher concentrations than heavy REEs(HREEs),reflecting natural abundances and geochemical *** minimum value was found in Lu as low as 0.091 mg/kg,and the maximum concentration was exhibited in Ce at 78.877 mg/*** index(I_(geo))analysis reveals minor to moderate enrichment of specific REEs of Sm and Nd,suggesting possible localized anthropogenic inputs,particularly near river *** analysis using inverse distance weighting(IDW)and self-organizing maps(SOM)highlights significant correlations between REE distributions and riverine inputs,underscoring fluvial transport's role in sedimentary REE *** identifies mixed natural and anthropogenic sources,with agricultural and industrial activities contributing to elevated REE levels in *** findings provide critical insights into the geochemical behavior of REEs in saline lake systems and off er a foundation for pollution control and sustainable resource management in sensitive environments like Qinghai Lake.

关键词： Rare earth elements Qinghai Lake Sediments Anthropogenic impact Sources

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Reconstructing forest and grassland cover changes in China over the past millennium

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Science China Earth Sciences 2025年第1期68卷 94-110页

作者： Fanneng HE Fan YANG Yafei WANG Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development Henan UniversityKaifeng475001China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China

Historical forest and grassland cover changes not only are critical indicators for quantifying ecological and environmental change processes but also serve as fundamental data for long-term climate change simulations and terrestrial ecosystem carbon emission ***,because of limitations in historical data,quantitative estimations and spatially gridded reconstructions of these changes remain challenging,necessitating further methodological *** study focused on China's present-day land area over the past millennium,objectively capturing the characteristics and drivers of forest and grassland cover *** this basis,using the forest transition theory and the space-for-time substitution method,we depicted the historical deforestation process as an inverted“S”curve and developed a model to reconstruct historical forest area changes based on the functional relationship between the forest area and population size ***,a gridded forest allocation model was established on the basis of deforestation *** the grassland cover,we implemented regionspecific methods,such as the cropland area deduction method and the habitat constraint method,to quantitatively reconstruct historical ***,we obtained provincial forest and grassland area changes over the past millennium and mapped 10-km-resolution gridded data of forest and grassland *** results indicated the following.(1)The methods developed using population data as a proxy objectively reproduced the spatiotemporal evolution of forest and grassland cover in China over the past *** feasible methods offer a novel pathway for the quantitative reconstruction of historical forest and grassland cover changes.(2)The data indicated that China's forest area generally decreased over the past millennium,characterized by a“decrease-then-increase”*** forest area experienced three distinct phases:a slow decline(AD 1000–1650),a rapid decline(AD 16

关键词： land use and land cover change Forest Grassland Quantitative reconstruction Gridded reconstruction China historical period

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Assessment of flood loss in administrative units based on improved vulnerability curves

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2025年第1期16卷 154-166页

作者： Rui YAN Lu-Lu LIU Jie WANG Shuang ZHOU Shao-Hong WU Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

The vulnerability curve is a key method for assessing flood loss risk,which contributes to the improvement of flood prevention and relief ***,existing vulnerability curves are typically developed on a large spatial scale,and intraregional variations in vulnerability are *** study aims to quantify the spatial heterogeneity of vulnerability within a region and elucidate the impact of vulnerability on flood *** Hubei and Hunan provinces in China as case study areas,vulnerability curves are constructed using a mixed-effects *** curves are then combined with flood intensities across various return periods to estimate flood *** addition,the influence of vulnerability and flood intensity on flood losses is *** results indicate that the mixed-effects model is effective in constructing distinct vulnerability curves for smaller-scale administrative units(***)while also assessing the overall vulnerability of the study area,and it achieves high accuracy(R^(2)>0.75).The disparities in loss rates between cities increase under longer return ***,the variation in vulnerability between cities is the primary factor influencing flood losses for short return periods,whereas differences in hazard intensity have a greater impact on city flood losses during longer return *** study provides methods and recommendations for systematic flood risk reduction and proposes pathways for enhancing climate resilience.

关键词： Disaster loss Vulnerability Flood hazard intensity Spatial heterogeneity Mixed-effects model Return period

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Latitudinal patterns of tree β-diversity and relevant ecological processes vary across spatial extents in forests of southeastern China

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Plant Diversity 2025年第1期47卷 89-97页

作者： Maochou Liu Wenxiang Wu Ke Wang Xinshuai Ren Xueqin Zhang Lei Wang Jing Geng Bo Yang Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Department of Environment and Resources University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Zhai Mingguo Academician Work Station Sanya UniversitySanya 572022China

Latitudinal patterns of treeβ-diversity reveal important insights into the biogeographical processes that influence forest *** previous studies have extensively documentedβ-diversity within relatively small spatial extents,the potential drivers ofβ-diversity along latitudinal gradients are still not well understood at larger spatial *** this study,we determined whether treeβ-diversity is correlated with latitude in forests of southeastern China,and if so,what ecological processes contribute to these patterns of treeβ-*** specifically aimed to disentangle the relative contributions from interspecific aggregation and environmental filtering across various spatial *** delineated regional communities comprising multiple nearby national forest inventory(NFI)plots around random focal *** number of NFI plots in a regional community served as a surrogate for spatial *** also used a null model to simulate randomly assembled communities and quantify the deviation(β-deviation)between observed and expectedβ-*** found thatβ-diversity decreased along a latitudinal gradient and that this pattern was clearer at larger spatial *** addition,latitudinal patterns ofβ-deviation were explained by the degree of species spatial *** also identified environmental factors that driveβ-deviation in these forests,including precipitation,seasonality,and temperature *** larger spatial extents,these environmental variables explained up to 84%of theβ-*** results reinforce that ecological processes are scale-dependent and collectively contribute to theβ-gradient in subtropical *** recommend that conservation efforts maintain diverse forests and heterogeneous environments at multiple spatial extents to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.

关键词： Environmental filtering Latitudinal pattern Forest beta diversity Spatial extent Species spatial aggregation Regional community

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Future climatic risks faced by the Beautiful China Initiative:A perspective for 2035 and 2050

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2025年第1期16卷 141-153页

作者： Zhong-Xue MA Hui-Juan CUI Quan-Sheng GE Key Laboratory of Land Surface Patterns and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Identifying high-risk areas for climatic disasters and their overlaps during the implementation of the Beautiful China Initiative fills a critical gap in disaster risk research,which often lacks quantitative analyses of the combined risks from multiple *** study evaluates key climatic risks and their overlaps,including heavy storms,heatwaves,and droughts,that may affect the Beautiful China Initiative objectives in 2035 and *** analysis is based on three shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP126,SSP370,and SSP585),incorporating vulnerability,disaster risks,and exposure *** findings indicate that the severity of climatic risks in China will intensify over time and with climate *** western regions will face more severe single-climate risks,while the eastern regions will encounter increasingly severe comprehensive climatic *** the western regions,by 2035,the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang is projected to experience heatwave risks exceeding Level 5,while Tibet and Qinghai will face drought risks above Level *** 2050,more areas will escalate to Level 6 and 7 *** the eastern regions,by 2035,Shandong,Henan,the Pearl River Delta,and the Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei region are expected to face comprehensive risks from heavy storms,heatwaves,and *** 2050,the overlapping high-risk areas will expand,covering the eastern parts of the Yangtze River Economic ***,higher radiative forcing scenarios are associated with increased *** study provides critical insights for developing targeted disaster prevention and management systems across different regions of China,offering guidance for the effective implementation of the Beautiful China Initiative.

关键词： Comprehensive climatic risk Beautiful China Initiative Heat wave Heavy storm Drought

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Priority sources identification and risks assessment of heavy metal(loid)s in agricultural soils of a typical antimony mining watershed

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2025年第1期147卷 153-164页

作者： Lianhua Liu You Li Xiang Gu Roberto Xavier Supe Tulcan Lingling Yan Chunye Lin Junting Pan Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China School of Environment Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Yiyang Academy of Agricultural Sciences Yiyang 413099China Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081China

Heavy metal(loid)(HM)pollution in agricultural soils has become an environmental concern in antimony(Sb)mining ***,priority pollution sources identification and deep understanding of environmental risks of HMs face great challenges due to multiple and complex pollution sources ***,an integrated approach was conducted to distinguish pollution sources and assess human health risk(HHR)and ecological risk(ER)in a typical Sb mining watershed in Southern *** approach combines absolute principal component score-multiple linear regression(APCS-MLR)and positivematrix factorization(PMF)models with ER and HHR *** pollution sources were distinguished for both models,and APCS-MLR model was more accurate and *** HM concentration source was natural source(39.1%),followed by industrial and agricultural activities(23.0%),unknown sources(21.5%)and Sb mining and smelting activities(16.4%).Although natural source contributed the most to HM concentrations,it did not pose a significant *** and agricultural activities predominantly contributed to ER,and attention should be paid to Cd and *** mining and smelting activities were primary anthropogenic sources of HHR,particularly Sb and As *** ER and HHR assessments,Sb mining and smelting,and industrial and agricultural activities are critical sources,causing serious ecological and health *** study showed the advantages of multiple receptor model application in obtaining reliable source identification and providing better source-oriented risk *** pollution management,such as regulating mining and smelting and implementing soil remediation in polluted agricultural soils,is strongly recommended for protecting ecosystems and humans.

关键词： Antimony Heavy metal(loid) Risk assessment Pollution sources Mining and smelting

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Anthropogenic adaptation measures expand suitable area for highland barley in Tibetan Plateau

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Science Bulletin 2025年第9期70卷 1504-1512页

作者： Liu, Yujie Zhang, Ermei Pan, Tao Chen, Jiahao Gao, Yu Peñuelas, Josep Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Science Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications - National Research Council Edifici C Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona Bellaterra Barcelona08193 Spain

Understanding the driving mechanisms of crop suitability is critical for ensuring global food security, particularly in promoting the sustainable development of alpine agriculture and alpine civilizations. In contrast to climate factors, how anthropogenic adaptation measures affect crop suitability remains largely unknown. This overlooked mechanism may explain why climate-driven model simulations underestimate the upper altitude limit for highland barley compared with observed records. Here, we used two decades of site-based phenological observations on the Tibetan Plateau and biophysical modeling, finding that anthropogenic adaptation measures can expand suitable cropping limits. These measures mainly involve breeding genotypes with lower thermal units, which enhance the adaptability of highland barley phenology to cold climates. Such adaptation mechanisms clarify the conflict between thermal niche model predictions and the observed distribution of highland barley up to an altitude of 5000 m. Considering these mechanisms, we developed an explainable framework to predict the potential habitat of highland barley under current climates. Results showed that anthropogenic adaptation measures expanded the suitable cropping area for highland barley by 27 × 104 km2 and the upper altitude limit for highland barley could reliably increase by approximately 50 m. This observation-based evidence underscores the crucial roles of anthropogenic adaptation measures in expanding suitable cropping limits of crops and highlights its importance for supporting food security and simulating accurate crop suitability. © 2025 Science China Press

关键词： Anthropogenic

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Projected changes in future wheat yield across China under CMIP6 climate simulations and agricultural management scenarios

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Journal of Cleaner Production 2025年 508卷

作者： Zhang, Ermei Liu, Yujie Tan, Qinghua Chen, Jiahao Pan, Tao Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China

Sustaining future crop yield growth is significant for ensuring global food security under climate change impact. Agricultural management presents a viable strategy to address the increase in crop production. However, the understanding of the potential effects of climate change and key agricultural management (such as irrigation and machinery) on future crop yields under the latest climate scenarios remains elusive. Here, we collected statistics from historical periods (1980–2011) on wheat yields and agricultural management covering 11 representative agro-ecological zones across China. A yield estimation framework based on machine learning models and Bayesian model averaging was developed. We reliably projected changes in wheat yield and assessed the effectiveness of agricultural management (irrigation, fertilizer, and machinery) across China, for two future periods (near-term: 2021–2040;mid-term: 2041–2060) under updated shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCP) scenarios. Main conclusions are as follows: (1) wheat yield is expected to diminish by an average of approximately 1 % across China for SSP5-8.5 in all periods. Especially, the Northwest spring wheat zone (NWS) was identified as a region with high-risk for future wheat production because of a marked yield loss (over 10 % on average) across all climate scenarios during the mid-term period. (2) Simulated wheat yield in China exhibited an average increase of 2 % with 10 % synergistic increases in irrigation, fertilizer, and machinery levels. Individual increase in irrigation level had a greater positive effect on wheat yield compared to machinery and fertilizer under all climate scenarios and periods. (3) Wheat yields in arid regions (such as NWS) would benefit more from the improvements in irrigation level under all climate scenarios for near-term period. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to develop innovative solutions in climate change adaptation. ©

关键词： Global warming

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Understanding the Efficiency and Uncertainty of Water Supply Service Assessment Based on the Budyko Framework: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin, China

SSRN

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SSRN 2025年

作者： Zhang, Tingjing Shao, Quanqin Huang, Haibo Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China

Freshwater ecosystem services (ESs) analyses are increasingly employed to address water resource management challenges. However, few studies have systematically examined the efficiency and uncertainty of such assessments, limiting their applicability for decision-making. In this study, the InVEST water yield model was applied to assess water supply service in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2000 to 2022. We evaluated the model's sensitivity to climate variables and the parameter ω. Six sets of data/parameter input combinations were constructed to drive the model independently. Spatiotemporal trends were compared with observed data from 33 hydrological stations along the Yellow River mainstem and tributaries to assess the model performance and uncertainties. Finally, the response of water supply to climate change and vegetation dynamics was further discussed. The results showed that precipitation exhibited the highest sensitivity, and errors in precipitation inputs were the primary source of data input uncertainties. Compared to the raster-scale ω-value calculation method, the method combined with the lumped model delivered the most robust simulation results (R2, RMSE, and MAE for mainstream basins: 0.91, 50.08 mm, and 38.85 mm;for tributary basins: 0.89, 6.43 mm, and 4.04 mm, respectively). Climate change, particularly changes in precipitation, emerged as a key factor driving water supply service dynamics. These findings enhance the understanding of efficiency and uncertainty in water-related ESs assessments and offer valuable insights for applications in other regions. © 2025, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Rivers

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