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Orderly adaptation to climate change： A roadmap for the post-Paris Agreement Era

Science China Earth Sciences 2018年第1期61卷 119-122页

作者： WU ShaoHong PAN Tao LIU YanHua GAO JiangBo HE XiaoJia Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China The Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21 Beijing 100038 China

Mitigation and adaptation are two complementary strategies for addressing climate ***,adaptation has received far less attention than *** response to observed and future climate change,the currently adopted measures for adaptation are ***,constraints,costs and other limitations to adaptation have not been fully recognized(Field et al.,2014).

关键词： adaptation mitigation currently constraints addressing limitations warming costs sector insufficient

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Using MaxEnt Model to Guide Marsh Conservation in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China

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Chinese Geographical Science 2019年第6期29卷 962-973页

作者： WANG Zhiliang ZHANG Bai ZHANG Xuezhen Tian Hongxu Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Science Qiqihar UniversityQiqihar 161006China Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of SciencesChangchun 130102China

Incorporating private and working lands into protected area networks could mitigate the isolation state of protected areas(PAs) and improve the efficiency of *** how to select patches of land for conservation is still a troublesome *** this study, the MaxEnt model and irreplaceability index were applied to guide marsh conservation in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast *** to the high accuracy of the MaxEnt model predictions(i.e., the average AUC value = 0.933), the Wuyuer River and Zhalong marshes in the downstream reaches of Wuyuer River are the optimal habitat for the Red-crowned crane and migratory *** are 22 marsh patches selected by the patch irreplaceability index for conservation, of which 12 patches had been included in the current network of protected *** other 10 patches of marsh(amounting to 1096 km^2) far from human disturbances with high NDVI(up to 0.8) and close distance to water(less than 100 m), which are excluded from the existing network of PAs, should be implemented conservation easement programs to improve the protection efficiency of ***, the marshes at Taha, Tangchi, and Lamadian should be given priority for conservation and restoration to reintroduce migratory waterfowls, as this would lessen the current isolation state of the Zhalong National Nature Reserve.

关键词： MaxEnt model irreplaceability index marsh conservation Red-crowned crane(Grus japonensis) Nenjiang River Basin

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Thresholds for the relationships between soil trace elements and ecosystem multifunctionality in degraded alpine meadows

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Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 2025年 391卷

作者： Wu, Yuping Ding, Mingjun Zhang, Hua Zou, Tiane Huang, Peng Xu, Huan Zhang, Yueju Zeng, Huan Xiong, Jiaxin Cheng, Liyao Liu, Linshan Zhang, Yili Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education/School of Geography and Environment Jiangxi Normal University Nanchang 330022 China Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Comprehensive Management and Resource Development Jiangxi Normal University Nanchang 330022 China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Trace elements in soil are known to affect ecosystem functions, such as soil microbial structure, function, and grassland productivity. However, it is largely unknown whether soil trace elements cause abrupt or gradual changes in ecosystem multifunctionality (EMF) in degraded alpine ecosystems and how they depend on environmental drivers. In this study, we investigated the vegetation and soil conditions in 172 sample squares in an alpine meadow area on the Tibetan Plateau, China. This study aimed to analyse the change characteristics in alpine meadow EMF and soil trace element contents at different degradation stages. Furthermore, we evaluated the soil trace element contributions to alpine meadow EMF. This study revealed that EMF decreased with increasing degradation, whereas total soil micronutrient content exhibited the opposite trend. A threshold was identified for regulating EMF using micronutrients during alpine meadow degradation. Soil micronutrients enhanced EMF during the initial stages of alpine meadow degradation. However, as degradation progressed, elevated soil micronutrient levels impeded EMF. In addition, climate can modulate soil trace elements through plant diversity and soil physicochemical properties, thereby influencing the role of soil trace elements in driving EMF. Soil physicochemical properties contributed the most to EMF, whereas soil trace elements, rather than plant diversity, significantly influenced EMF. Overall, soil trace elements in the degraded meadows had a significantly negative impact on EMF. © 2025 Elsevier B.V.

关键词： Degraded ecosystem multifunctionality Soil trace elements Threshold effects Tibetan plateau

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Mapping cropping patterns in the North China Plain over the past 300 years and an analysis of the drivers of change

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2024年第10期34卷 2074-2088页

作者： LI Shicheng LIU Yating LI Jianrui ZHANG Xuezhen School of Public Administration China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

It is essential to map the cropping patterns when investigating the mechanisms and impacts of climate ***,the long-term evolution of cropping patterns remains poorly *** study collected hundreds of records of cropping intensity and crop combinations from local gazetteers and other relevant articles for the North China Plain(NCP)over the past 300 ***,we analyzed the evolutionary characteristics and drivers in terms of climate change and advances in agricultural *** the Qing Dynasty to the 1950s,one harvest per year(1H1Y)was the dominant pattern in the northern NCP,and three harvests in two years(3H2Y)was the dominant pattern in Henan and Shandong *** 1H1Y crops were cereals and *** 3H2Y crop combinations were spring maize,winter wheat,and *** the 1960s and 1970s,the cropping intensity in much of the NCP was two harvests per year(2H1Y)or a mix of the 2H1Y and 3H2Y *** the 1980s,the cropping intensity in the NCP was dominated by *** the 1960s,the 2H1Y crop compositions have been winter wheat-summer maize in Shandong,Henan,and Hebei provinces,while winter wheat-rice dominated north of the Huaihe *** 3H2Y summer crop changed from beans to maize/cereals over *** warming was not the dominant factor driving the evolution of cropping intensity in the *** in agricultural production conditions and reforms in production relations have promoted the rapid development of multiple cropping since the 1950s.

关键词： North China Plain Qing Dynasty cropping intensity crop combinations crop harvest frequency climate change

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Evaluation of precipitation forecasting base on GraphCast over mainland China

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Scientific Reports 2025年第1期15卷 1-13页

作者： Yan, Zihuang Lu, Xianghui Wu, Lifeng Liu, Fa Qiu, Rangjian Cui, Yaokui Ma, Xin School of Soil and Water Conservation Nanchang Institute of Technology Nanchang 330099 China State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038 China Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Wuhan University Wuhan 430072 China Institute of RS and GIS School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking University Beijing 100871 China School of Mathematics and Physics Southwest University of Science and Technology Mianyang 621010 China

The accurate cumulative precipitation forecasts are essential for monitoring water resources and natural disasters. The combination of deep learning and big data has become a new direction for precipitation forecasting. However, the current large models are still lacking in-situ data verification. To accomplish this goal, the precipitation forecasting performance of a state-of-the-art model GraphCast was evaluated. Using the cumulative precipitation data from 2393 observation stations for the 1–3 day period as a reference, we assessed the cumulative precipitation in mainland China region for the 1–3 day period from 2020 to 2021, utilizing a high-resolution model with 0.25° × 0.25° grid spacing and 13 layers of parameters. The precipitation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was also compared. The results show that: (1) During the 2020-2021 period, for the 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day cumulative precipitation forecasts, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values of GraphCast were primarily between 0.46 to 9.38 mm/d, 0.44 to 9.06 mm/d, and 0.44 to 9.06 mm/d, respectively. The Mean Error (ME) values were mainly between − 0.595 to 1.705 (0.01 mm). (2) As the forecast period extends, the forecasting capability of GraphCast declines. (3) In the 1–3 day cumulative precipitation forecasts for various stations in mainland China, GraphCast demonstrates higher predictive accuracy than ECMWF. (4) Compared to ECMWF, GraphCast demonstrated the best forecast performance in the temperate humid and semi-humid regions of Northeast China, with the RMSE being approximately 12 higher. Our study indicates that GraphCast demonstrates significant potential and higher accuracy in precipitation forecasting. © The Author(s) 2025.

关键词： Cumulative precipitation forecast ECMWF High resolution Large models

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Advancing sustainable agricultural: A novel framework for mapping annual 30-m resolution national-level irrigated croplands

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International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 2025年 140卷

作者： Du, Enyu Chen, Fang Jia, Huicong Dong, Jinwei Wang, Lei Chen, Yu Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science Aerospace Information Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100094 China International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals Beijing 100094 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China

With regard to climate change and population growth, irrigated croplands need to be accurately delineated for sustainable water resource management. Owing to the lack of extensive training samples and the limitations of coarse spatiotemporal resolution data in complex agricultural regions, China's irrigated croplands are difficult to map with a unified spatiotemporal framework. This study presents an innovative method for mapping irrigated and rainfed croplands in mainland China with a local adaptive random forest classifier on the Google Earth Engine platform. Based on the dynamic threshold extraction of multiple peak vegetation index values and a rigorous multi-dataset integration strategy, the annual sample sets of irrigated and rainfed croplands are generated automatically. After constructing 147 multi-feature variables sensitive to irrigation activities, China's annual irrigated croplands dataset (CAICD) is developed, with 30-m spatial resolution for the 1990–2022 period. The results show the following:(1) CAICD has higher accuracy and a more realistic spatial distribution of irrigated croplands compared with existing datasets, with an average overall accuracy of 0.80. (2) The most sensitive classification features for irrigation signals are spectral indices and original bands, with regional differences influenced by climate characteristics (precipitation and evapotranspiration) and terrain features. (3) Over the past three decades, China's irrigated croplands have expanded overall and Xinjiang has exhibited the most significant increase and the highest growth rate of irrigated area in mainland China, with an annual expansion of 103 thousand hectares. The results exhibit significant implications for the balance between food security and water resource security, providing valuable insights and contributions for future global monitoring of irrigated croplands. © 2025 The Author(s)

关键词： Automatic sampling China Irrigation Random forest Spatiotemporal patterns

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The conservation patterns of grassland ecosystem in response to the forage-livestock balance in North China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2021年第4期31卷 518-534页

作者： HUANG Lin NING Jia ZHU Ping ZHENG Yuhan ZHAI Jun Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China Satellite Environment Center Ministry of Ecology and EnvironmentBeijing 100094China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Being a key ecological security barrier and production base for grassland animal husbandry in China,the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure in North China directly affects grassland degradation and restoration,thereby impacting grassland ecosystem *** paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation in grassland vegetation coverage,forage supply,and the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure from 2000 to 2015 in North *** then discuss the spatial pattern of grassland ecological conservation under the impacts of grassland degradation and restoration,and livestock-carrying *** the last 16 years,the total grassland area in North China decreased by about 16,000 km^(2),with vegetation coverage degraded by 6.7%of the grasslands but significantly restored by another 5.4%of *** provisioning of forage by natural grassland mainly increased over time,with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.3 kg/ha,but livestock-carrying pressure also increased *** livestock-carrying pressure index without any supplementary feeding reached as high as *** from the potential livestock-carrying capacity in northeastern Inner Mongolia and the central Tibetan Plateau,most regions in North China are currently *** the actual supplementary feeding during the cold season,the livestock-carrying pressure index is about 3.1,with the livestock-carrying pressure mitigated in central and eastern Inner *** full supplementary feeding in the cold season,livestock-carrying pressure index will fall to 1.9,with the livestock-carrying pressure alleviated significantly in Inner Mongolia and on the Tibetan ***,we propose different conservation and development strategies to balance grassland ecological conservation and animal husbandry production in different regions of protected areas,pastoral areas,farming-pastoral ecotone,and farming areas,according

关键词： grassland degradation and restoration forage supply livestock-carrying pressure grassland ecosystem conservation North China

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Foliar carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus stoichiometry in a grassland ecosystem along the Chinese Grassland Transect

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Acta Ecologica Sinica 2017年第3期37卷 133-139页

作者： Hailing, Yu Jiangwen, Fan Yuzhe, Li Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) are the basic nutrient elements required for plant growth and function. Ecological stoichiometry provides an important method for the determination of plant nutrient utilization and the environmental adaptation strategies of plants. Studying the stoichiometry of C, N and P is crucial to the understanding of nutrient cycling and ecosystem stabilization mechanisms. Most studies so far have focused only on N and P stoichiometry for plant leaves and ignored the stoichiometry characteristics among C, N, and P. As a major element of plant dry matter, C, along with critical nutrient elements (N and P) could regulate and influence the consumption and fixation of organic matter in ecosystems. Therefore, it is necessary to study the ecological stoichiometry of C, N, and P in plants. Here, C, N and P concentrations and their ratios were measured for 329 foliar samples collected at 132 sites along the 4500 km-long Chinese Grassland Transect (CGT) that traverses the Inner Mongolian and Qinghai-Tibet Plateaus. The content of C, N, and P of plant leaves in grassland ranged from 257.40 to 590.77 mg/g, 4.49 to 45.85 mg/g, and 0.20 to 3.40 mg/g, with an average of 463.76 mg/g, 19.94 mg/g, 1.31 mg/g, respectively. The coefficient of variation (CV) of P was highest (0.47) while the CV values of C and N were 0.09 and 0.34, respectively. N and P were positively correlated (R² = 0.491, P b 0.0001), in agreement with previous studies, while no significant correlation was found between C and P or between C and N. The ranges for C/N, N/P, and C/P were 10.93-93.67 (with an average of 26.86 and a CV value of 0.46) for C/N, 1.68-53.00 (with an average of 16.59 and a CV value of 0.39) for N/P, and 61.49-1995.24 (with an average of 436.77 and a CV value of 0.59) for C/P, respectively. The mass ratio of C:N:P in grassland plant was 440:17:1, and the atom ratio was 1136:43:1. C/N and C/P, C/N and N/P were positively correlated (R² =

关键词： C Chinese grassland Transect Ecological stoichiometry Grassland plant Leaf nutrients N P elements

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Nonlinear Relationship Between Multidimensional Urbanization and Carbon Emissions and Its Driving Mechanisms

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Huanjing Kexue/Environmental Science 2025年第6期46卷 3524-3535页

作者： Nie, Cheng-Jing Li, Yi-Xuan Du, Hui Zhang, Xue-Ru Wang, Li Zhang, Feng-Ying School of Public Administration Hebei University of Economics and Business Shijiazhuang 050061 China Hebei Collaborative Innovation Center for Urban-Rural Integrated Development Hebei University of Economics and Business Shijiazhuang 050061 China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China China National Environmental Monitoring Centre Beijing 100012 China

Understanding the relationships and associated mechanisms between multidimensional urbanization and carbon emissions is essential for the coordinated development of strategies for high-quality urbanization and carbon reduction. Using panel statistical data and remote sensing imagery from cities in the Bohai Rim from 2000 to 2021，in this study，we employed spatial autocorrelation models to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of CO₂ emissions and applied a system dynamic panel regression model to assess the nonlinear relationship and driving mechanisms between multidimensional urbanization and CO₂ emissions. From 2000 to 2021，CO₂emissions in the Bohai Rim exhibited an upward trend，with a deceleration in growth after 2016. The CO₂ emission intensity generally declined，with fluctuations post 2019 and a transition from lower to higher emission levels among cities. Spatial agglomeration was not prominent during the study period. However，after 2016，there was a noticeable trend toward stronger correlational characteristics. Significant differences were observed in the nonlinear relationships between the various stages of urbanization subsystems in the Bohai Rim and CO₂ emissions. Economic urbanization showed an inverted "N" curve relationship with CO₂ emissions，indicative of an environmental kuznets curve（EKC）effect. When per capita GDP exceeded 89 278.41 Yuan，economic urbanization exhibited an inhibitory effect on CO₂ emissions，suggesting the importance of enhancing the comprehensive urban quality and shifting development strategies for managing emissions. The relationship between population urbanization and CO₂ emissions was confined to the left side of the inverted“U”curve，indicating that the carbon emissions inflection point had not been reached. The impact of land urbanization on CO₂ emissions mirrored that of economic urbanization，displaying a distinct inverted“N”pat

关键词： Bohai Rim carbon emissions driving mechanism multidimensional urbanization nonlinear relationship

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Heat Health Risk and Adaptability Assessments at the Subdistrict Scale in Metropolitan Beijing

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2022年第6期13卷 987-1003页

作者： Xiaokang Su Fang Wang Demin Zhou Hongwen Zhang Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Resource Environment and Tourism Capital Normal UniversityBeijing 100048China Beijing Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center Beijing 100089China

Against the background of global climate change, the increasing heat health risk from the combined effect of changes in high temperature, exposure, vulnerability, and other factors has become a growing *** the low number of temperature observation stations is insufficient to represent the complex changes in urban heatwaves, and subdistrict-scale(town, township, neighborhood committee, and equivalent) heat health risk and adaptability assessments are still limited. In this study, we built daytime and nighttime high-temperature interpolation models supported by data from 225 meteorological stations in *** models performed well at interpolating the cumulative hours of high temperature and the interpolation quality at night was better than that during the day. We further established a methodological framework for heat health risk and adaptability assessments based on heat hazard, population exposure, social vulnerability, and adaptability at the subdistrict scale in Beijing. Our results show that the heat health risk hotspots were mainly located in the central urban area,with 81 hotspots during the day and 76 at night. The average value of the heat health risk index of urban areas was 5.60 times higher than that of suburban areas in the daytime,and 6.70 times higher than that of suburban areas in the night. Greater population density and higher intensity of heat hazards were the main reasons for the high risk in most heat health risk hotspots. Combined with a heat-adaptive-capacity evaluation for hotspot areas, this study suggests that 11high-risk and low-adaptation subdistricts are priority areas for government action to reduce heat health risk in policy formulation and urban development.

关键词： Beijing Heat health risk Heat adaptability High-temperature interpolation models Subdistrict scale

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