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Unprecedented Warming Revealed from Multi-proxy Reconstruction of Temperature in Southern China for the Past 160 Years

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第8期34卷 977-982页

作者： Yang LIU Jingyun ZHENG Zhixin HAO Xuezhen ZHANG Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Using the southern limit of snowfall recorded in Chinese documents, chronologies of tree-ring width, and tree-ring stable oxygen isotope（δ^（18）O）, the annual temperature anomaly in southern China during 1850–2009 is reconstructed using the method of signal decomposition and synthesis. The results show that the linear trend was 0.47℃（100 yr）^（-1）over 1871–2009,and the two most rapid warming intervals occurred in 1877–1938 and 1968–2007, at rates of 0.125℃（10 yr）^（-1）and 0.258℃（10 yr）^（-1）, respectively. The decadal variation shows that the temperature in the moderate warm interval of the 1910s–1930s was notably lower than that of the 1980s–2000s, which suggests that the warming since the 1980s was unprecedented for the past 160 years, though a warming hiatus existed in the 2000s. Additionally, there was a rapid cooling starting from the 1860s,followed by a cold interval until the early 1890s, with the coldest years in 1892 and 1893. A slight temperature decline was also found from the 1940s to the late 1960s. This study provides an independent case to validate the global warming for the past 160 years and its hiatus recently, because the proxy data are not affected by urbanization.

关键词： centennial warming temperature reconstruction multi-proxy southern China

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Ecological changes and the tradeoff and synergy of ecosystem services in western China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第6期32卷 1059-1075页

作者： NIU Linan SHAO Quanqin NING Jia HUANG Haibo Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Since the implementation of the Development of Western Regions in 2000,a series of major ecological construction projects have been implemented,leading to a series of changes in the ecological conditions and ecological services of western *** study calculated the amount of ecosystem services in total in the western region from 2000 to 2019,and analyzed ecological changes and the characteristics of spatio-temporal variations in ecological services.A relevant analysis method was applied to explore the tradeoff and synergy of *** was found that the area of settlements and wetland ecosystems in the western region increased significantly from 2000 to 2015,whereas grassland showed a downward trend year by *** vegetation fraction showed a decreasing belt-like distribution from south to *** showed a fluctuating increase during 2000 to 2019,with inter-annual and large spatial *** water conservation service(WCS)had a slight downward trend from 2000 to 2019,and the main decreasing areas were distributed in southeastern Tibet,the western part of the Three Rivers Source region,and the karst rocky desertification *** soil conservation service(SCS)showed an increasing but fluctuating trend,with the greatest increases observed in the Loess Plateau region,western Sichuan and Yunnan,northwest Tibet,and southeast *** windbreak and sand fixation service(SFS)showed a downward trend,and the sharp decline was mainly in the central and western parts of Inner Mongolia,Tibet and parts of northern *** supply and WCS,and SCS were mainly synergistic,which were found in areas north of the Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River(QM-HR)line,especially in Ningxia and Inner *** supply was mainly tradeoffs with SFS,and it was found in the agriculture-pastoral transition *** synergistic degree of ecosystem services in areas subjected to ecological engineering policy was greater than that in non-engineering *** asse

关键词： ecosystem services tradeoff and synergy western region Western Development Strategy

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Contributions of climate change to cereal yields in Tibet, 1993–2017

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第1期32卷 101-116页

作者： DING Rui SHI Wenjiao Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Climate change is a global environmental crisis, but there have been few studies of the effects of climate change on cereal yields on the Tibetan Plateau. We used data from meteorological stations and statistical yearbooks to assess the impacts of climate change on cereal yields in Tibet. Three types of statistical models were selected: fixed-effects model, first-difference models, and linear detrending models. We analyzed the impacts of climate change(including the minimum temperature, precipitation, growing degree days and solar radiation) on cereal yields in Tibet from 1993 to 2017 at the county, prefecture-level city, and autonomous region scales. The results showed that the sensitivity of cereal yields in Tibet to temperature(minimum temperature and growing degree days) was greater than their sensitivity to precipitation and solar radiation. The joint impacts of climate variables were positive, but the sensitivity and significance varied in different regions. The impacts of minimum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were positive in all cities, apart from the negative impacts of growing degree days on cereal yields in Lhasa. The impacts of climate trends on cereal yields in Tibet were positive and the results were in the range of 1.5%–4.8%. Among the three types of model, the fixed-effects model was the most robust and the linear detrending model performed better than the first-difference model. The robustness of the first-difference model decreased after adding the interaction terms between different climate variables. Our findings will help in implementing more spatially targeted agricultural adaptations to cope with the impacts of climate change on the agro-ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau climate change statistical model cereal yields

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Spatio-temporal characteristics of soil protection efforts of the Grain for Green Project in northern Shaanxi Province

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2020年第3期30卷 401-422页

作者： LIU Wenchao LIU Jiyuan KUANG Wenhui Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences Tianjin Normal UniversityTianjin 300387China

This paper looks at the Green for Grain Project in northern Shaanxi *** on remote sensing monitoring data,this study analyzes the locations of arable land in northern Shaanxi in the years 2000,2010 and 2013 as well as spatio-temporal changes over that period,and then incorporates data on the distribution of terraced fields to improve the input parameters of a RUSLE model and simulate and generate raster data on soil erosion for northern Shaanxi at different stages with a accuracy ***,combined with the dataset of farmland change,compared and analyzed the characteristics of soil erosion change in the converted farmland to forest(grassland)and the unconverted farmland in northern Shaanxi,so as to determine the project’s impact on soil erosion over time across the *** results show that between 2000 and 2010,the soil erosion modulus of repurposed farmland in northern Shaanxi decreased 22.7 t/ha,equivalent to 47.08%of the soil erosion modulus of repurposed farmland in *** the same period,the soil erosion modulus of non-repurposed farmland fell 10.99 t/ha,equivalent to 28.6%of the soil erosion modulus of non-repurposed farmland in *** soil erosion modulus for all types of land in northern Shaanxi decreased by an average of 14.51 t/ha between 2000 and 2010,equivalent to 41.87%of the soil erosion modulus for the entire region in *** suggests that the Green for Grain Project effectively reduced the soil erosion modulus,thus helping to protect the *** particular,arable land that was turned into forest and grassland reduced erosion most noticeably and contributed most to soil ***,in the period 2010 to 2013,which was a period of consolidation of the Green for Grain Project,the soil erosion modulus and change in volume of soil erosion in northern Shaanxi were significantly lower than in the previous decade.

关键词： northern Shaanxi converting farmland into forest and grassland remote sensing RUSLE soil erosion soil conservation

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China's agricultural land use change and its underlying drivers:A literature review

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2021年第8期31卷 1222-1242页

作者： WANG Xue LI Xiubin Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Understanding the manifestations and underlying drivers of agricultural land use change in China is of great importance for both domestic and global food security. However, little is known about the holistic pattern of agricultural land use change across China, especially from the perspective of intensity since the evidence has been gathered mainly through case studies at local levels. This study conducts a systemic review of agricultural land use change and its underlying drivers in China by aggregating 169 relevant case studies from 123 publications. The cases related to intensification and disintensification, which are the two types of agricultural land use change, are generally equal, accounting for 50% of the total number of cases. Intensification and disintensification can be further divided into the same three categories: expansion/contraction of agricultural land, changes in agricultural land use activities and changes in land management intensity. Demographic, economic, technological, and institutional drivers, together with location factors, are frequently noted as significant underlying drivers, while sociocultural drivers and farm(er) characteristics are less frequently recognized. Finally, three major land use change trajectories are summarized mainly concerning rising labor costs and the concomitant increase in off-farm employment, the ecological improvement policy, and advances in agricultural technology.

关键词： agricultural land land use intensity driving forces aggregate analysis China

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Spatial distribution of cadmium and lead in wheat grains and their environmental driving factors in major grain-producing areas, China

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Ecological Indicators 2025年 175卷

作者： Zang, Zhenfeng Liu, Suhua Li, Yonghua College of Water Resource North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power Zhengzhou450046 China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China

Cadmium and lead can enter the human body through the food chain, posing a threat to human health and food safety. Knowledge of the spatial distribution pattern of Cd and Pb in wheat grains in the major grain producing areas and identification of the main driving factors can provide scientific references for development of precise pollution remediation and management measures to ensure food security and sustainable agricultural development. The study adopted multi-method collaboration, and integrated multi-source environment data to comprehensively analyze the spatial distribution pattern and their environmental driving factors of cadmium and lead concentrations in wheat grains in a typical major wheat producing area in China. Results showed that the mean concentrations of cadmium and lead in wheat grains were lower than the Chinese standard limits, with the exceedance rates of 11.69 % and 8.83 %, respectively. The spatial distribution characteristics of cadmium and lead was similar, and had obvious spatial aggregation characteristics, i.e., the northwestern and southern parts were the agglomeration of high-value areas. The livestock and manure application had the most significant effect on the spatial distribution of cadmium and lead, with q values of 0.105 and 0.187, respectively, followed by fertilizer application and population density. The distribution of cadmium was more influenced by livestock and manure application, fertilizer application, etc. in the eastern region than in the western region, whereas for lead, it was higher in the southeast than in the northwest. The comprehensive analysis of geodetector and geographically weighted regression indicated that the livestock and manure application, fertilizer application, population density, and industrial activities were the main driving factors for the spatial distribution of Cd and Pb. The findings enhance our understanding of the spatial distribution pattern and environmental driving factors of cadmium and

关键词： Grain (agricultural product)

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Revealing climatic impacts on the temporal and spatial variation in vegetation activity across China:Sensitivity and contribution

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第3期12卷 409-420页

作者： JIAO Ke-Wei GAO Jiang-Bo LIU Zhi-Hua WU Shao-Hong Tamara L.FLETCHER Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management Institute of Applied EcologyChinese Academy of SciencesShenyang110016China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China

Relative weakness in sensitivity and contribution integration,especially lack of specific indicators at spatial and temporal scales,may hinder the formation of systematic knowledge for climate change impact on vegetation *** the interannual variability and periods difference,we investigated the ecosystem sensitivity to hydrothermal conditions and the contribution of individual climatic factors to vegetation activity on spatiotemporal scales during the period of 1980s—2013 in *** ran simulations of the Common land Model(CoLM)to obtain the photosynthetic rate,and used the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),to which we applied a temporal sensitivity analysis,the slope change ratio of accumulative quantity(SCRAQ),and geographical *** show that the discrepancy between warming and precipitation variation contributed to vegetation activity was more notable than the ecosystem sensitivity to hydrothermal conditions,regardless of which temporal and spatial scale was *** sensitivity of vegetation activity to hydrothermal variation in most parts of northeastern and western China was higher than elsewhere,and the contribution of warming to vegetation dynamics was relatively high in the Inner Mongolian Plateau and Tibetan Plateau(>60%),where the contribution of warming to the vegetation distribution was also greater than elsewhere in ***,the contribution of precipitation variation to vegetation dynamics was comparatively greater in northwestern China and subtropical and tropical regions(>55%).The spatiotemporal contribution of precipitation variation to vegetation activity differed between regions,especially on the Tibetan Plateau and in subtropical and tropical ***,both the temporal and spatial sensitivities to climate change were weak in the subtropical and tropical regions,where the contribution of climatic factors to vegetation distribution was also ***,temperature sensit

关键词： Vegetation activity Climate change Sensitivity Contribution Spatial-temporal scales China

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Non-uniform climatic responses of land surface phenology derived from optical-, fluorescence-, and microwave-based satellite observations

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Remote Sensing of Environment 2025年 325卷

作者： Qu, Wendi Hu, Lu Peñuelas, Josep Liang, Xiaoyu Li, Yang He, Wenjun Wu, Chaoyang College of Geography and Environmental Science Henan University Kaifeng475004 China The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China International Institute for Earth System Science Nanjing University Nanjing China CSIC Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB Bellaterra Catalonia Barcelona08193 Spain CREAF Cerdanyola del Valles Catalonia Barcelona08193 Spain Department of Geography The Ohio State University ColumbusOH United States Department of Geography National University of Singapore Singapore Singapore Shandong Key Laboratory of Eco-Environmental Science for the Yellow River Delta Shandong University of Aeronautics Shandong Province Binzhou256600 China

Satellite remote sensing has greatly advanced the study of land surface phenology, providing crucial insights into large-scale vegetation dynamics in the context of climate change. Multi-sensor satellite-derived vegetation proxies, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in optical mode, solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) in fluorescence mode, and vegetation optical depth (VOD) in microwave mode, are effective indicators of vegetation dynamics in greenness, biomass, and productivity. However, a comprehensive understanding of phenological patterns derived from these proxies and their climatic responses remains limited. In this study, spanning 1988–2021, we analyzed spatio-temporal patterns and climatic responses of spring green-up dates (GUDs) and autumn dates of foliar senescence (DFSs) across the three vegetation proxies. We found broadly consistent trends of advancing GUDs (−2.4 to −1.1 days decade−1) across proxies, while DFSs exhibited divergent temporal patterns: VOD-derived DFSs showed significant delays (+1.1 days decade−1), whereas NDVI- and SIF-derived DFSs displayed no clear trends. Rising temperatures were the primary driver of earlier GUDs, while precipitation and insolation had limited influence. In autumn, warming delayed VOD-based DFSs but had minimal effects on NDVI- and SIF-based estimates. Spatial attribution analyses indicated that both biotic and abiotic factors contributed to the spatial variability in climatic responses, with species richness and tree density modulating temperature effects. These findings highlight the importance of proxy selection in phenological studies and underscore the need for integrated investigations into the biophysical mechanisms driving non-uniform climatic responses across vegetation proxies. © 2025

关键词： Vegetation

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Variations of the temperature and solar activity in China

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2014年第6期6卷 531-539页

作者： MingQi Li QuanSheng Ge ZhiXin Hao JingYun Zheng Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences

In this paper we analyze daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature data collected at 119 meteorological stations over five regions of China during the period 1951-2010. The series of minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures from each climatic region have similar signatures, but there are differences among the five regions and the countrywide average. The results indicate that the periods of faster warming were not synchronous across the regions studied： warming in northeast China and Tibet began in 1986, while in central-east, southeast, and northwest China the warming emerged in 1995. Furthermore, central-east and northwest China, and Tibet, have warmed continuously since 2000, but the temperature has decreased during this period in southeast China. We evaluated the evolution of these temperature series using a novel nonlinear filtering technique based on the concept of the lifetime of temperature curves. The decadal to secular evolution of solar activity and temperature variation had similar signatures in the northeast, southeast, and northwest re- gions and the average across the whole country, indicating that solar activity is a significant control on climate change over secular time scales in these regions. In comparison with these regions, the signatures were different in central-east China and Tibet because of regional differences （e.g., landforms and elevation） and indirect effects （e.g., cloud cover influencing the radiation balance, thereby inducing climate change）. Furthermore, the results of wavelet analysis indicated that the El Nino Southem Oscillation （ENSO） has had a significant impact on climate change, but at different times among the regions, and these changes were most probably induced by differing responses of the atmospheric system to solar forcing.

关键词： temperature variation solar activity lifetime wavelet analysis China

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Hazards of extreme events in China under different global warming targets

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Big Earth Data 2020年第2期4卷 153-174页

作者： Jiangbo Gao Lulu Liu Shaohong Wu Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijingChina College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events affect the risk pattern of risk-bearing bodies and the effectiveness of response *** on future climate scenario data,in this study,we identify global warming periods of 1.5℃ and 2℃ above pre-industrial levels,and the temporal and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation in China during the same period,propose a methodology for risk assessment and integrated analysis of extreme events,build a database of extreme events and their hazards in China in the context of climate change,and assess the hazards caused by extreme events(i.e.,heatwaves,floods,and droughts)in China under different warming *** the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,global temperatures increase by 1.5℃ and 2℃ above preindustrial levels by 2029 and 2026 and by 2050 and 2040,*** warming would be fast in the north and slow in the south,the warming of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau would accelerate,and the precipitation would increase in the north and decrease in the south,but the trend of the precipitation reduction in the south would be more significant under the RCP8.5 *** 2℃ of warming,the hazard index of severe heatwaves in the North China Plain,parts of South China,and the western part of Inner Mongolia would double that of 1.5℃ *** differences in extreme precipitation would increase,especially under the RCP8.5 scenario,the hazard index of severe floods in parts of East China would be about twice that of 1.5℃ *** the joint influence of rising temperature and changing precipitation,the drought situation would be alleviated under the RCP4.5 scenario,but it is intensified under the RCP8.5 *** 2℃ of warming,the hazard index of severe droughts in some areas would reach three times that of 1.5℃ *** the integrated hazard of the three types of extreme events,the areas of high and medium hazards would expand,while the areas of low hazard would *** 2℃ of warming,t

关键词： Climate change warming target extreme events integrated hazard spatialtemporal pattern

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