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Hazards of extreme events in China under different global warming targets

Big Earth Data 2020年第2期4卷 153-174页

作者： Jiangbo Gao Lulu Liu Shaohong Wu Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijingChina College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events affect the risk pattern of risk-bearing bodies and the effectiveness of response *** on future climate scenario data,in this study,we identify global warming periods of 1.5℃ and 2℃ above pre-industrial levels,and the temporal and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation in China during the same period,propose a methodology for risk assessment and integrated analysis of extreme events,build a database of extreme events and their hazards in China in the context of climate change,and assess the hazards caused by extreme events(i.e.,heatwaves,floods,and droughts)in China under different warming *** the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,global temperatures increase by 1.5℃ and 2℃ above preindustrial levels by 2029 and 2026 and by 2050 and 2040,*** warming would be fast in the north and slow in the south,the warming of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau would accelerate,and the precipitation would increase in the north and decrease in the south,but the trend of the precipitation reduction in the south would be more significant under the RCP8.5 *** 2℃ of warming,the hazard index of severe heatwaves in the North China Plain,parts of South China,and the western part of Inner Mongolia would double that of 1.5℃ *** differences in extreme precipitation would increase,especially under the RCP8.5 scenario,the hazard index of severe floods in parts of East China would be about twice that of 1.5℃ *** the joint influence of rising temperature and changing precipitation,the drought situation would be alleviated under the RCP4.5 scenario,but it is intensified under the RCP8.5 *** 2℃ of warming,the hazard index of severe droughts in some areas would reach three times that of 1.5℃ *** the integrated hazard of the three types of extreme events,the areas of high and medium hazards would expand,while the areas of low hazard would *** 2℃ of warming,t

关键词： Climate change warming target extreme events integrated hazard spatialtemporal pattern

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Desertification sensitivity and its impacts on land use change in the Tarim Basin, Northwest China

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Science of the Total Environment 2024年 957卷 177601页

作者： Li, Dajing Zhu, Zaichun Xu, Erqi Zhang, Hongqi School of Urban Planning and Design Shenzhen Graduate School Peking University Shenzhen China Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Human–Earth Relations Ministry of Natural Resources of China Shenzhen Graduate School Peking University Shenzhen China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Desertification poses a major challenge in the northwestern arid areas of China. land use activities are increasingly endangered by desertification, including direct impact (e.g., farmland abandonment) and indirect impact (e.g., farmland area control). However, previous studies have primarily focused on the impact of land use on desertification processes, while there has been limited research on the direct and indirect impacts of desertification on land use. Based on the Mediterranean Desertification and land Use (MEDALUS) and Future land Use simulation (FLUS) models, we identify the spatiotemporal distribution of desertification sensitivity and analyze the direct and indirect impacts of desertification on land use in the Tarim Basin from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that the desertification sensitivity areas were primarily concentrated in the critical areas (proportion > 50 %), followed by the fragile and potential areas. In terms of the direct impact, the areas of abandoned farmland due to desertification were 68.25 km2 and 1444.25 km2 during the periods of 2000–2010 and 2010–2020, respectively. Additionally, 3893.25 km2 of farmland was at risk of abandonment. After being abandoned, the farmland was primarily converted into grassland. In terms of the indirect impact, the differences between predicted (simulations without farmland area control) and observed farmland area, serving as an indicator of farmland area control to reduce desertification risks, were 1065.75 km2 in 2010 and 4614.00 km2 in 2020. Our paper provides new insights into the direct and indirect impacts of desertification on land use, providing references for formulating desertification control policies and regional land use planning. © 2024

关键词： Desertification Farmland abandonment Farmland area land use change Tarim Basin

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Monitoring periodically national land use changes and analyzing their spatiotemporal patterns in China during 2015–2020

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第9期32卷 1705-1723页

作者： KUANG Wenhui ZHANG Shuwen DU Guoming YAN Changzhen WU Shixin LI Rendong LU Dengsheng PAN Tao NING Jing GUO Changqing DONG Jinwei BAO Yuhai CHI Wenfeng DOU Yinyin HOU Yali YIN Zherui CHANG Liping YANG Jiuchun XIE Jiali QIU Juan ZHANG Hansong ZHANG Yubo YANG Shiqi SA Rigai LIU Jiyuan Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing100101China Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology CASChangchun130102China Northeast Agricultural University Harbin150030China Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources CASLanzhou730000China Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography CASUrumqi830011China Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology CASWuhan430071China Fujian Normal University Fuzhou350007China Qufu Normal University RizhaoShandong276826China Inner Mongolia Normal University Hohhot010022China Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics Hohhot010070China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China Jilin University Changchun130000China

High-resolution mapping and monitoring of national land use/cover changes contribute significantly to the knowledge of the interaction between human activities and environmental ***’s land Use/cover Dataset(CLUD)for 2020 and its dynamic changes in 2015-2020 were developed to extend the CLUD to over 30 years(i.e.,the 1980s to 2020 at 5-year intervals)by integrating remote sensing big data and knowledge-based human-computer interaction interpretation *** integrating method for CLUD 2020 improved the efficiency of national land use/cover mapping and the accuracy of land use pattern change detection compared to earlier CLUD products,with an overall accuracy of 95%.The intensity of land use change decreased across China in 2015-2020 compared to 2010-2015,although both characteristics of its spatial changes were *** cropland area continued to shrink at national scale in 2015-2020,with two regional hotspots including the widespread conversions from dry land into paddy land in Northeast China and the coexistence of widespread land cultivation and cropland abandonment in Xinjiang of Northwest ***-up land area continued to expand in China,showing consistency between 2015-2020 and 2010-2015,in which hotspots transited from the surroundings of coastal megacities to the city surroundings of the central and western *** natural land,although the woodland and grassland decreased in 2015-2020,its magnitude expanded compared to *** comparison,the water body area in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau increased significantly under the continuous impact of climate *** characteristics of land use change were closely related to the development strategy of the top-level design of the 13th Five-Year Plan(2016-2020)(e.g.,ecological civilization construction and high-quality development).

关键词： land use spatial pattern cropland change urban expansion cloud computation remote sensing China

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Rice use history in Southeast China:Phytolith evidence from the Nanshan site in Fujian Province

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第5期66卷 1108-1119页

作者： Qiuhe CHEN Zhao LI Yongchao MA Zhenyu ZHOU Xiaoyan YANG Officers College of PAP ChinaChengdu610000China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China Department of History Jinan UniversityGuangzhou510632China School of Archaeology and Museology Sichuan UniversityChengdu610065China Center for Archaeological Science Sichuan UniversityChengdu610065China National Demonstration Center for Experimental Archaeology Education Sichuan UniversityChengdu610065China Institute of Archaeology Chinese Academy of Social SciencesBeijing100710China Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems Ministry of EducationCollege of Earth and Environmental SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou730000China

The southern spread of rice agriculture is of great academic *** it already has a broad chronological framework,newly introduced rice use and its impact on local subsistence and ecological systems are still *** this study,we explore these issues by analysing phytoliths recovered from continuous sediments of Cave No.4 at the Nanshan site in Fujian Province,together with evidence from surrounding *** results show that rice was introduced into southeast China at 7,500 *** BP,but the dominance of the hunting-gathering system was not challenged until later,between 5,000 and 3,500 *** BP,when cultivation of rice,together with foxtail and broomcorn millets,was widely practiced in the *** suggests that mixed farming in Southeast China,likely originating around the middle Yangtze River,became widespread and gradually systematic during the previous two-millennium *** rice-millet mixed agricultural system changed the former hunting-gathering subsistence system,promoting the agriculturalization process,cultural prosperity and population growth,thus providing a solid basis for rice expansion and cultural migration to Southeast Asia.

关键词： Phytolith analysis Southward spread of rice agriculture Subsistence system China-Indo-China-Indo-China Peninsula Island Southeast Asia

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Spatiotemporal pattern of the dynamics in area,production,and yield of Aus rice in Bangladesh and its response to droughts from 1980 to 2018

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第10期32卷 2069-2084页

作者： KHONDAKAR Arifuzzaman DONG Jinwei LI Zhichao DENG Xiangzheng SINGHA Mrinal RAHMAN Md.Mizanur JIN Zhenong WANG Shaoqiang ZHEN Lin XIAO Xiangming Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100094China Department of Geography and Environment Pabna University of Science and TechnologyPabna 6600Bangladesh Deputy Director(Monitoring) Field Services WingDepartment of Agricultural ExtensionMinistry of AgricultureBangladesh Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering University of Minnesota-Twin CitiesSaint PaulMNUSA Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CASBeijing 100101China Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology University of OklahomaNorman OK 73019USA

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to natural disasters such as droughts in the *** pre-monsoon Aus rice in Bangladesh depends on rainfall and is threatened by increasing ***,limited information on the changes in Aus rice as well as droughts hamper our understanding of the country’s agricultural resilience and adaption to ***,we collected all the official statistical data of Aus rice at the district level from 1980 to 2018,and examined the interannual variations of area,yield,and *** results showed both area and production of Aus rice decreased significantly(61.58×103 ha yr-1 and 17.21×103 *** yr-1,respectively),while yield increased significantly(0.03 *** ha-1 yr-1).We also found a significantly increasing trend of droughts in 88%of area based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI)data,especially in those rainfed agricultural ***,we found significant positive correlations between PDSI and Aus rice area(production)in 33(25)out of 64 *** is hardly a relationship between PDSI and yield,likely due to the improved management and increasing irrigated *** continuous drought monitoring,combined irrigation(surface and groundwater)systems,and conservation and precision agriculture are highly recommended in these drought-prone districts to ensure food security in Bangladesh.

关键词： Aus rice droughts acreage production yield PDSI Bangladesh

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Geographic conditions impact the relationship between plant phenology and phylogeny

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Science of the Total Environment 2024年 945卷 174083页

作者： Shahzad, Khurram Alatalo, Juha Mikael Zhu, Mengyao Cao, Lijuan Hao, Yulong DAI, Junhu Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing100101 China Nebraska Food for Health Center Department of Food Science and Technology University of Nebraska-Lincoln LincolnNE United States Environmental Science Center Qatar University Doha Qatar University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China

Plant phenology is influenced by a combined effect of phylogeny and climate, although it is yet unclear how these two variables work together to change phenology. We synthesized 107 previously published studies to examine whether phenological changes were impacted by both phylogeny and climate changes in various geographical settings globally. Phenological observation data from 52,463 plant species at 71 sites worldwide revealed that 90 % of phenological records showed phylogenetic conservation. i.e., closely related species exhibited similar phenology. To explore the significant and non-significant phylogenetic conservation between plant phenophases, our dataset comprises 5,47,000 observation records from the four main phenophases (leaf bud, leaf, flower, and fruit). Three-dimensional geographical distribution (altitude, latitude, and longitude) data analysis revealed that plant phenology may exhibit phylogenetic signals at finer special scales (optimal environmental conditions) that vanish in high altitude and latitude regions. Additionally, climatic sensitivity analysis suggested that phylogenetic signals were associated with plant phenophases and were stronger in the regions of ideal temperature (7–18 °C) and photoperiod (10–14 h) and weaker in harsh climatic conditions. These results show that phylogenetic conservation in plant phenological traits is frequently influenced by the interaction of harsh climatic conditions and geographical ranges. This meta-analysis enhances our knowledge of predicting species responses over geographic gradients under varied climatic conditions. © 2024 Elsevier B.V.

关键词： Phylogenetic

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Characteristics And Role of Colloids Fractions In Arsenic Mobilization in surface Water Near The Shimen Realgar Mine

SSRN

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SSRN 2024年

作者： Yu, Zhenzhen Yang, Fen Wei, Chaoyang Li, Zhiying Jiang, Bin Dai, Weijie Tang, Changyuan Zhang, Yizhang Liang, Tao Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China Tianjin300457 China State Key Laboratory of Organic Geochemistry Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry Chinese Academy of Sciences Guangzhou510640 China

Arsenic mobility and transport in natural water are substantially influenced by inorganic components and dissolved organic matter (DOM) in colloids, but the characteristics of different molecular weights (MW) colloids and their impacts on As mobilization remain unclear. Therefore, bulk surface water ( 0.05) between molecular mass of DOM and optical indices were observed except for SUVA254 in the 10-100 kDa fraction, implying that molecular mass of DOM cannot accurately characterize the composition and structure of DOM fractions. © 2024, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： surface waters

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Transforming Future Dietary patterns to Reduce Environment Pressure and Health Risks in China

SSRN

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SSRN 2024年

作者： Chen, Jiahao Liu, Yujie Tan, Qinghua Zhang, Ermei Pan, Tao Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China The Administrative Bureau of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Estimating dietary needs and exploring the emission reduction potential of dietary changes contribute to sustainable development decisions. Current dietary trend in China deviates from healthy dietary standards, which accelerates greenhouse gas emissions. Dietary adjustment is needed to relieve the pressure on food system production and reduce the burden on the environment. Therefore, it is critical to promote dietary transition and estimate the potential contribution of healthy dietary transition to carbon emissions and sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the future. Based on the nutritional objective, this study projected dietary demands and variations in China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature rise scenarios based on three healthy dietary patterns. The emission reduction potential of China's dietary transition and its impact on SDG indicators were systematically evaluated by applying life cycle theory. The results showed that relative to the baseline period (2020), dietary transition would lead to an increase of 13.34%-47.07% in the total dietary demand, and the increase in the 2 °C warming scenario was higher than that in the 1.5 °C warming scenario. The increases under three dietary patterns were ranked as national Dietary Guidelines pattern, WHO healthy dietary pattern, and EAT-Lancet dietary pattern. In addition, dietary transition significantly increased dietary carbon emissions (2.90%~31.90%) under 2 °C warming scenario, with the total amount reaching 18.38×108 ~23.56×108 t CO2 eq. The carbon emission of plant food was about 1.0-1.55 times of that of animal food. Future dietary transition could significantly improve nitrogen and phosphorus emissions, and promote the sustainable development of eastern China, such as Guangdong and Zhejiang. Further, shift to EAT-Lancet dietary pattern under temperature rise scenarios would be beneficial for sustainable development in many provinces, but more interventions are needed to promote dietary shifts and increase

关键词： Sustainable development

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Determining the Trophic Transfer of Heavy Metals And Arsenic Speciation in Freshwater Aquatic Organisms by Quantifying Diet Compositions

SSRN

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SSRN 2023年

作者： Yang, Fen Wei, Chaoyang Zhang, Huan Yang, Xiao Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Sino-Japan Friendship Center for Environmental Protection Beijing China

Bioaccumulation through diet is the predominant source of metals in fishes;however, the trophic transfer of heavy metals from the diet to aquatic organisms remains largely unclear. In this study, aquatic organisms and five potential food sources (leaf litter, coarse and fine particulate organic matter (CPOM and FPOM, respectively), epilithon and fish) were collected around the Shimen Realgar Mine of China. Stomach content analysis and stable nitrogen and carbon isotope analysis, combined with a new Bayesian mixing model (MixSIAR), were used to quantify diet compositions of aquatic organisms. The δ13C and δ15N values varied among fish sizes and sampling sites and were probably related to the diet shift of aquatic organisms. The MixSIAR modelling results showed that the aquatic organisms’ food sources were mainly composed of FPOM (9%-68%) and epilithon (15%-65%), with leaf litter, CPOM and fish accounting for smaller proportions (2%-30%). Concentrations ranged from 0.91 to 1298 mg/kg for As, 0.01 to 1.30 mg/kg for Cd, 0.12 to 37.79 mg/kg for Pb, 0.63 to 1158 mg/kg for Cr, 1.22 to 411 mg/kg for Cu, 0.82 to 1772 mg/kg for Mn, 0.31 to 542 mg/kg for Ni and 21.84 to 1414 mg/kg for Zn in all the collected samples, including the aquatic organisms and the relevant food sources. The heavy metal concentrations in the CPOM, FPOM and epilithon were significantly higher than those in aquatic organisms and leaf litter. In addition, the biomagnification factors were all less than 1, indicating a biodilution from diet to freshwater organisms. The predominant As species were organic As in aquatic organisms, while inorganic As was common in their food sources, indicating that As biotransformation occurred within the freshwater food chain. © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Heavy metals

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Trophic Transfer and Accumulation of Heavy Metal and Arsenic Speciation in Freshwater Aquatic Organisms in Huangshui Creek, Shimen Realgar Mine, China by Quantifying Diet Compositions

SSRN

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SSRN 2023年

Heavy metal pollution is a worldwide concern and understanding the sources of metal accumulation in aquatic organisms is essential for maintaining a healthy ecosystem. In this study, aquatic organisms and five potential food sources (leaf litter, coarse and fine particulate organic matter (CPOM and FPOM), epilithon and fish) were collected around the Shimen Realgar Mine and 8 heavy metal concentrations and arsenic (As) speciation were analysed. Stomach content analysis and stable nitrogen and carbon isotope analysis, combined with the new Bayesian mixing model (MixSIAR), were used to quantify diet composition of aquatic organisms. The δ13C and δ15N values varied among different fish size and sampling sites and were probably related to the diet shift of aquatic organisms. The MixSIAR modelling results showed that large proportion of the aquatic organisms’ food were composed of FPOM (9%-68%) and epilithon (15%-65%), with leaf litter, CPOM and fish accounting for lower proportions (2%-30%). Concentrations ranged from 0.91 to 1298 mg/kg for As, 0.01 to 1.30 mg/kg for Cd, 0.12 to 37.79 mg/kg for Pb, 0.63 to 1158 mg/kg for Cr, 1.22 to 411 mg/kg for Cu, 0.82 to 1772 mg/kg for Mn, 0.31 to 542 mg/kg for Ni and 21.84 to 1414 mg/kg for Zn in all collected samples, including the aquatic organisms and the relevant food sources. Heavy metal concentrations in CPOM, FPOM and epilithon were significantly higher than those in aquatic organisms and leaf litter. In addition, the biomagnification factors were all less than 1, indicating a biodilution from diet to freshwater organisms. The predominant As species were organic As in aquatic organisms, while inorganic As was common in their food sources, indicating that As biotransformation occurred within the freshwater food chain. © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Heavy metals

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