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Reconstructing forest and grassland cover changes in China over the past millennium

Science China Earth Sciences 2025年第1期68卷 94-110页

作者： Fanneng HE Fan YANG Yafei WANG Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development Henan UniversityKaifeng475001China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China

Historical forest and grassland cover changes not only are critical indicators for quantifying ecological and environmental change processes but also serve as fundamental data for long-term climate change simulations and terrestrial ecosystem carbon emission ***,because of limitations in historical data,quantitative estimations and spatially gridded reconstructions of these changes remain challenging,necessitating further methodological *** study focused on China's present-day land area over the past millennium,objectively capturing the characteristics and drivers of forest and grassland cover *** this basis,using the forest transition theory and the space-for-time substitution method,we depicted the historical deforestation process as an inverted“S”curve and developed a model to reconstruct historical forest area changes based on the functional relationship between the forest area and population size ***,a gridded forest allocation model was established on the basis of deforestation *** the grassland cover,we implemented regionspecific methods,such as the cropland area deduction method and the habitat constraint method,to quantitatively reconstruct historical ***,we obtained provincial forest and grassland area changes over the past millennium and mapped 10-km-resolution gridded data of forest and grassland *** results indicated the following.(1)The methods developed using population data as a proxy objectively reproduced the spatiotemporal evolution of forest and grassland cover in China over the past *** feasible methods offer a novel pathway for the quantitative reconstruction of historical forest and grassland cover changes.(2)The data indicated that China's forest area generally decreased over the past millennium,characterized by a“decrease-then-increase”*** forest area experienced three distinct phases:a slow decline(AD 1000–1650),a rapid decline(AD 16

关键词： land use and land cover change Forest Grassland Quantitative reconstruction Gridded reconstruction China historical period

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Ecological changes and the tradeoff and synergy of ecosystem services in western China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第6期32卷 1059-1075页

作者： NIU Linan SHAO Quanqin NING Jia HUANG Haibo Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Since the implementation of the Development of Western Regions in 2000,a series of major ecological construction projects have been implemented,leading to a series of changes in the ecological conditions and ecological services of western *** study calculated the amount of ecosystem services in total in the western region from 2000 to 2019,and analyzed ecological changes and the characteristics of spatio-temporal variations in ecological services.A relevant analysis method was applied to explore the tradeoff and synergy of *** was found that the area of settlements and wetland ecosystems in the western region increased significantly from 2000 to 2015,whereas grassland showed a downward trend year by *** vegetation fraction showed a decreasing belt-like distribution from south to *** showed a fluctuating increase during 2000 to 2019,with inter-annual and large spatial *** water conservation service(WCS)had a slight downward trend from 2000 to 2019,and the main decreasing areas were distributed in southeastern Tibet,the western part of the Three Rivers Source region,and the karst rocky desertification *** soil conservation service(SCS)showed an increasing but fluctuating trend,with the greatest increases observed in the Loess Plateau region,western Sichuan and Yunnan,northwest Tibet,and southeast *** windbreak and sand fixation service(SFS)showed a downward trend,and the sharp decline was mainly in the central and western parts of Inner Mongolia,Tibet and parts of northern *** supply and WCS,and SCS were mainly synergistic,which were found in areas north of the Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River(QM-HR)line,especially in Ningxia and Inner *** supply was mainly tradeoffs with SFS,and it was found in the agriculture-pastoral transition *** synergistic degree of ecosystem services in areas subjected to ecological engineering policy was greater than that in non-engineering *** asse

关键词： ecosystem services tradeoff and synergy western region Western Development Strategy

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Contributions of climate change to cereal yields in Tibet, 1993–2017

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第1期32卷 101-116页

作者： DING Rui SHI Wenjiao Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Climate change is a global environmental crisis, but there have been few studies of the effects of climate change on cereal yields on the Tibetan Plateau. We used data from meteorological stations and statistical yearbooks to assess the impacts of climate change on cereal yields in Tibet. Three types of statistical models were selected: fixed-effects model, first-difference models, and linear detrending models. We analyzed the impacts of climate change(including the minimum temperature, precipitation, growing degree days and solar radiation) on cereal yields in Tibet from 1993 to 2017 at the county, prefecture-level city, and autonomous region scales. The results showed that the sensitivity of cereal yields in Tibet to temperature(minimum temperature and growing degree days) was greater than their sensitivity to precipitation and solar radiation. The joint impacts of climate variables were positive, but the sensitivity and significance varied in different regions. The impacts of minimum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were positive in all cities, apart from the negative impacts of growing degree days on cereal yields in Lhasa. The impacts of climate trends on cereal yields in Tibet were positive and the results were in the range of 1.5%–4.8%. Among the three types of model, the fixed-effects model was the most robust and the linear detrending model performed better than the first-difference model. The robustness of the first-difference model decreased after adding the interaction terms between different climate variables. Our findings will help in implementing more spatially targeted agricultural adaptations to cope with the impacts of climate change on the agro-ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau climate change statistical model cereal yields

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Assessment of flood loss in administrative units based on improved vulnerability curves

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2025年第1期16卷 154-166页

作者： Rui YAN Lu-Lu LIU Jie WANG Shuang ZHOU Shao-Hong WU Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

The vulnerability curve is a key method for assessing flood loss risk,which contributes to the improvement of flood prevention and relief ***,existing vulnerability curves are typically developed on a large spatial scale,and intraregional variations in vulnerability are *** study aims to quantify the spatial heterogeneity of vulnerability within a region and elucidate the impact of vulnerability on flood *** Hubei and Hunan provinces in China as case study areas,vulnerability curves are constructed using a mixed-effects *** curves are then combined with flood intensities across various return periods to estimate flood *** addition,the influence of vulnerability and flood intensity on flood losses is *** results indicate that the mixed-effects model is effective in constructing distinct vulnerability curves for smaller-scale administrative units(***)while also assessing the overall vulnerability of the study area,and it achieves high accuracy(R^(2)>0.75).The disparities in loss rates between cities increase under longer return ***,the variation in vulnerability between cities is the primary factor influencing flood losses for short return periods,whereas differences in hazard intensity have a greater impact on city flood losses during longer return *** study provides methods and recommendations for systematic flood risk reduction and proposes pathways for enhancing climate resilience.

关键词： Disaster loss Vulnerability Flood hazard intensity Spatial heterogeneity Mixed-effects model Return period

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Snowpack variations and their hazardous effects under climate warming in the central Tianshan Mountains

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 442-451页

作者： Jian-Sheng HAO Yan WANG Lan-Hai LI Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101China Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone Urumqi 830011China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Tianshan Snowcover and Avalanche Observation and Research Station of Xinjiang Xinyuan 835800China CAS Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Urumqi 830011China

Climate change alters snowpack evolution,which in turn influences the likelihood of snow avalanches and flood *** lack of systemic observational data on key snow characteristics in high mountains remains a scientific challenge in terms of systematically elucidating the dynamic chain of variations in climate-snowpack-snow *** restricts our understanding and poses challenges in the prediction of snow-related disaster *** such,this study analysed the variations of temperature and snowfall and the physical characteristics of snowpacks based on ground-based observations from the Kunse River Valley situated in the Tianshan Mountains from 1967 to *** results reveal that the temperature increased significantly by 0.32°C per decade(p<0.01)during the snow season,along with more extreme snowfall *** snow-cover duration was observed to have been shortened by 4.77 d per decade(p<0.01)from 1967 to 2021,which is characterised by later snow-cover onset and earlier ***,average and maximum snow depths increased along with an increase in peak snow water equivalent,thus indicating a higher frequency of extremely scarce or abundant snow *** low snowpack temperature gradient and earlier snowmelt dates in spring lead to earlier occurrences of snowmelt floods and wet *** the risks of these events increase,they pose greater threats to farmlands,road transportation,water-electricity infrastructure and several other human ***,these insights are critical for providing vital information that can deepen our understanding of the impact of climate change on snowpack characteristics and improve management strategies for snow-related disaster prevention and mitigation.

关键词： Climate change Snowpack variations Snow-related disaster Tianshan Mountains

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The characteristics and future projections of fire danger in the areas around mega-city based on meteorological data–a case study of Beijing

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第3期18卷 637-648页

作者： Mengxin BAI Wupeng DU Zhixin HAO Liang ZHANG Pei XING Beijing Municipal Climate Center Beijing Meteorological ServiceBeijing 100089China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

It is crucial to investigate the characteristics of fire danger in the areas around Beijing to increase the accuracy of fire danger monitoring,forecasting,and *** meteorological data from 17 national meteorological stations in the areas around Beijing from 1981−2021,this study calculated the fire weather index(FWI)and analyzed its spatiotemporal *** was found that the high and low fire danger periods were in April−May and July−August,with spatial patterns of“decrease in the northwest−increase in the southeast”and a significant increase throughout the areas around Beijing,***,the contributions of different meteorological factors were quantified by the multiple regression *** found that during the high fire danger period,the northern and southern parts were affected by precipitation and minimum relative humidity,***,most areas were influenced by wind speed during the low fire danger ***,comparing with the FWI characteristics under different SSP scenarios,we found that the FWI decreased during high fire danger period and increased during low fire danger period under different SSP scenarios(i.e.,SSP245,SSP585)for periods of 2021−2050,2071−2100,2021−2100,except for SSP245 in 2071−2100 with an increasing trend both in high and low fire danger *** study implies that there is a higher probability of FWI in the low fire danger period,threatening the ecological environment and human ***,it is necessary to enhance research on fire danger during the low fire danger period to improve the ability to predict summer fire danger.

关键词： meteorological data-based fire danger areas around Beijing climate characteristics SSP scenarios

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Latitudinal patterns of tree β-diversity and relevant ecological processes vary across spatial extents in forests of southeastern China

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Plant Diversity 2025年第1期47卷 89-97页

作者： Maochou Liu Wenxiang Wu Ke Wang Xinshuai Ren Xueqin Zhang Lei Wang Jing Geng Bo Yang Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Department of Environment and Resources University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Zhai Mingguo Academician Work Station Sanya UniversitySanya 572022China

Latitudinal patterns of treeβ-diversity reveal important insights into the biogeographical processes that influence forest *** previous studies have extensively documentedβ-diversity within relatively small spatial extents,the potential drivers ofβ-diversity along latitudinal gradients are still not well understood at larger spatial *** this study,we determined whether treeβ-diversity is correlated with latitude in forests of southeastern China,and if so,what ecological processes contribute to these patterns of treeβ-*** specifically aimed to disentangle the relative contributions from interspecific aggregation and environmental filtering across various spatial *** delineated regional communities comprising multiple nearby national forest inventory(NFI)plots around random focal *** number of NFI plots in a regional community served as a surrogate for spatial *** also used a null model to simulate randomly assembled communities and quantify the deviation(β-deviation)between observed and expectedβ-*** found thatβ-diversity decreased along a latitudinal gradient and that this pattern was clearer at larger spatial *** addition,latitudinal patterns ofβ-deviation were explained by the degree of species spatial *** also identified environmental factors that driveβ-deviation in these forests,including precipitation,seasonality,and temperature *** larger spatial extents,these environmental variables explained up to 84%of theβ-*** results reinforce that ecological processes are scale-dependent and collectively contribute to theβ-gradient in subtropical *** recommend that conservation efforts maintain diverse forests and heterogeneous environments at multiple spatial extents to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.

关键词： Environmental filtering Latitudinal pattern Forest beta diversity Spatial extent Species spatial aggregation Regional community

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Urban expansion and intra-urban land evolution as well as their natural environmental constraints in arid/semiarid regions of China from 2000–2018

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2023年第7期33卷 1419-1441页

作者： PAN Tao KUANG Wenhui SHAO Hua ZHANG Chi WANG Xiaoyu WANG Xinqing School of Geography and Tourism Qufu Normal UniversityRizhao 276826ShandongChina Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyCASUrumqi 830011China Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection College of Resources and EnvironmentLinyi UniversityLinyi 276000ShandongChina

Rapid urbanization has occurred in arid/semiarid China,threatening the sustainability of fragile dryland ecosystems;however,our knowledge of natural environmental constraints on multiscale urban lands in this region is still *** solve this issue,this study retrieved 15-m multiscale urban *** indicated that urban area increased by 68%during 2000–2018,and one-third of the increase was contributed by only three large *** coverage of impervious surface area(ISA) and vegetated area(VA) increased by 16.6%and 1.38%,*** land-cover change may be helpful in suppressing wind erosion and sand *** also found that the newly urban lands had relatively lower ISA and higher VA than the old urban lands,indicating an improved human settlement *** environmental constraints on urban expansion were identified,with cities in oasis urban environments(OUEs) that had water supply expanding 150% faster than cities in desert urban environments(DUEs).Urban development was also constrained by terrain,with 73% of the ISA expansion occurring in relatively flat ***,the aggregated pattern of urbanization and the increase in ISA and VA in the newly urbanized lands have improved water-use efficiency and ecological services and benefited desert ecosystem protection in arid/semiarid China.

关键词： urbanization natural environmental constraints pixel and subpixel land change arid and semiarid regions of China

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Spatio-temporal variations in ecological spaces and their ecological carrying status in China's mega-urban agglomerations

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第9期32卷 1683-1704页

作者： WANG Shihao HUANG Lin XU Xinliang LI Jiahui State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing100101China

The rapid expansion of China’s urban agglomerations in recent decades has resulted in over-occupied ecological spaces and increased ecological pressure that are restricting healthy regional *** paper examines the structure and characteristics of distribution of“production-living-ecological”spaces in five mega-urban agglomerations in China:Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH),the Yangtze River Delta(YRD),Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA),Chengdu-Chongqing(CY),and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River(MYR).We analyze spatial and temporal variations in the ecological spaces and factors influencing them from 1990 to 2020,and examine the comprehensive ecological carrying capacity and status of ecological spaces in the past 30 years based on the available water resources,regulation of water and air quality,and leisure and *** results show the following:(1)Urban agglomerations in different stages of formation and development represent varying area ratios of“ecological-production-living”*** modes of expansion and evolution of the living spaces are dominated by multi-center combinations as well as the spatial structure of ecological spaces,including barrier,compact,discrete,and fully enveloping spaces.(2)From 1990 to 2020,the area occupied by living spaces in urban agglomerations continued to increase significantly while that of spaces for ecological production *** in the GBA,ecological spaces have exhibited a trend of increase in area,especially in the past 10 *** area ratios and spatio-temporal variations in the“production-living-ecological”spaces indicate that the main functions of production and ecological spaces in mega-urban agglomerations have shifted from supply to regulation and culture,and reflect the transition from rapid urbanization to sustainable urbanization in China.(3)The comprehensive ecological carrying capacities of 78.6%,73.1%,54.5%,56.3%,and 25.8%of cities in BTH,YRD,GBA,CY and MYR are severely ove

关键词： mega-urban agglomerations “production-living-ecological”spaces ecological spaces ecological carrying capacity spatial and temporal variations

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Resistance of plant diversity to road disturbance: Evidence from the Tibetan Plateau

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Plant Diversity 2025年第3期47卷 394-402页

作者： Chen, Ziwei Zhao, Dongsheng Deng, Siqi Zhu, Yu Wang, Ke Wang, Shunsheng Zheng, Du Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

The expansion of road networks in recent decades has drawn considerable attention due to its impact on biodiversity in high-altitude ecosystems. Here, we conducted a comprehensive field survey to investigate the effects of road disturbance on plant diversity in alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau. Our results indicate that road disturbance caused no significant changes in species richness, Shannon–Wiener's diversity, or Simpson's diversity, and the alteration in species composition was limited. These findings demonstrate the robust resistance of alpine grassland plant diversity to road disturbance. Plant diversity exhibited more resistance to road disturbance in regions with more hostile environments, such as plateau sub-frigid regions and alpine steppes. Our study suggests that road construction in the Tibetan Plateau poses limited risk to plant biodiversity. © 2024 Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences

关键词： Anthropogenic disturbance Biodiversity Highway Resilience Stability Sustainability

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