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SSRN 2023年

作者： Wang, Yuwei Zhao, Na Yin, Xiaozhe Wu, Chaoyang Chen, Mingxing Jiao, Yimeng Yue, Tianxiang State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographic Information Resource Development and Application Nanjing210023 China University of Southern California United States Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China

The increasing exposure to extreme heatwaves in urban areas from both climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) effect is posing multiple threats and challenges to human society. Despite a growing number of studies focusing on extreme exposure, research advances are still limited in some aspects like oversimplifies of some inter-individual factors of human exposure, resulting in unreliable and unrealistic estimates of future results. In addition, little research performed comprehensive and fine-resolution global analysis in future scenarios. In this study, we present the first global fine-resolution projection of future changing urban population exposure to heatwaves by 2100 under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) by considering the urban development at global, regional, and national scales. Overall, global urban population exposure to heatwaves is rising under the four SSPs. Temperate and tropical zones predictably have the greatest exposure among all climate zones. Coastal cities are projected to have the greatest exposure, followed closely by cities at low altitudes. Middle-income countries have the lowest exposure and the lowest inequality of exposure among countries. Individual climate effects contributed the most (about 46.4%) to future changes in exposure, followed by the interactive effect between climate and urbanization (about 18.5%). Our results indicate that more attention needs to be paid to policy improvements and sustainable development planning of global coastal cities and some low-altitude cities, especially in low- and high-income countries. Meanwhile, this study also highlights the impact of continued future urban expansion on population exposure to heatwaves. © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climate change

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Global Future Population Exposure to Heatwaves

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SSRN 2023年

关键词： Climate change

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Global Future Population Exposure to Heatwaves

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SSRN 2023年

关键词： Climate change

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Correction to: Developing a Critical Nitrogen Concentration Dilution Model and Diagnosing Nitrogen Nutrition of Wheat

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Journal of Soil Science and Plant Nutrition 2023年第4期23卷 6891-6891页

作者： Song, Xiao Xu, Duanyang Zhang, Keke Huang, Shaomin Guo, Tengfei Huang, Chenchen Guo, Doudou Yue, Ke Zhang, Shuiqing Zhang, Zhibiao Institute of Plant Nutrient and Environmental Resources Henan Academy of Agricultural Science Zhengzhou China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing China Soil and Fertilizer Workstation of Xiayi County Shangqiu China

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Characteristics and hazards of different snow avalanche types in a continental snow climate region in the Central Tianshan Mountains

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Journal of Arid land 2021年第4期13卷 317-331页

作者： HAO Jiansheng Richard MIND'JE LIU Yang HUANG Farong ZHOU Hao LI Lanhai State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Ili Station for Watershed Ecosystem Research Chinese Academy of SciencesXinyuan 835800China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China CAS Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Urumqi 830011China Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone Urumqi 830011China Transport Department of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Urumqi 830000China

Snow avalanches are a common natural hazard in many countries with seasonally snow-covered *** avalanche hazard varies with snow avalanche type in different snow climate regions and at different *** ability to understand the characteristics of avalanche activity and hazards of different snow avalanche types is a prerequisite for improving avalanche disaster management in the mid-altitude region of the Central Tianshan *** this study,we collected data related to avalanche,snowpack,and meteorology during four snow seasons(from 2015 to 2019),and analysed the characteristics and hazards of different types of *** snow climate of the mid-altitude region of the Central Tianshan Mountains was examined using a snow climate classification scheme,and the results showed that the mountain range has a continental snow *** quantify the hazards of different types of avalanches and describe their situation over time in the continental snow climate region,this study used the avalanche hazard degree to assess the hazards of four types of avalanches,i.e.,full-depth dry snow avalanches,full-depth wet snow avalanches,surface-layer dry snow avalanches,and surface-layer wet snow *** results indicated that surface-layer dry snow avalanches were characterized by large sizes and high release frequencies,which made them having the highest avalanche hazard degree in the Central Tianshan Mountains with a continental snow *** overall avalanche hazard showed a single peak pattern over time during the snow season,and the greatest hazard occurred in the second half of February when the snowpack was deep and the temperature *** study can help the disaster and emergency management departments rationally arrange avalanche relief resources and develop avalanche prevention strategies.

关键词： continental snow climate avalanche hazard full-depth snow avalanche surface-layer snow avalanche hazard assessment disaster management

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Crop Yield Forecasting by Integrating Data Assimilation, Crop Model, and Machine Learning

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SSRN 2023年

作者： Zhuang, Huimin Zhang, Zhao Cheng, Fei Han, Jichong Luo, Yuchuan Zhang, Liangliang Cao, Juan Zhang, Jing He, Bangke Xu, Jialu Tao, Fulu Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Minsitry of Emergency Management Ministry of Education School of National Safety and Emergency Management Beijing Normal University Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Jointly Sponsored by Beijing Normal University Aerospace Information Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing100875 China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Helsinki Finland

Timely and reliable regional crop yield forecasting before harvest is critical for managing climate risk, adjusting agronomic management, and making food trade policy. Although various methods exist for crop yield forecasting, including process-based crop models and machine learning techniques, the potential of integrating these methods for early-season yield forecasts has not been well investigated. In this study, we proposed a hybrid framework for crop yield forecasting that firstly assimilated remote sensing leaf area index and soil moisture into a crop model and then combined the data-assimilated crop model with machine learning techniques to improve the prediction skill further. The proposed framework was demonstrated in winter wheat yield forecasting in the North China Plain during 2009–2015. Results showed that assimilating multi-source data into crop model improved wheat yield predictions significantly, with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) increasing by 0.27 and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) decreasing by 6.12% compared to unassimilated results. Incorporating weather forecasts enabled reliable winter wheat yield forecasts up to 1–3 months in advance (median ACC > 0.79, MAPE © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Soil moisture

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Influence of Vegetation Phenological Carry-Over Effects on Plant Autumn Phenology Under Climate Change

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SSRN 2022年

作者： Yuan, Huanhuan Yan, Jiabao Liu, Ying Peng, Jie Wang, Xiaoyue Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment Nanjing Jiangsu210042 China The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing100871 China State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystems College of Ecology Lanzhou University Lanzhou730000 China

Plant phenology variation is shaped by the complex interplay between current environmental conditions and the legacy effects of biological factors. The interaction of the start and end of the growing season (SOS and EOS) may offset the responses of the phenology change trends to climate change if not specifically accounted for. These interactions among phenological events have been demonstrated to influence phenological processes, but the relative importance of biological and environmental factors on phenological response to climate warming remains untested. Therefore, we used multi-source remote sensing data and empirical approaches to examine the influence of plant phenological carry-over effects on EOS over time and the maximum score of importance in projection for phenological variables (i.e., VIP score) in northern 30°N. Results showed that the most important biological factor was significantly positively correlated with EOS during 1982-2015 (Long-period, LP) and 2001-2018(Short-period, SP) for 40.02% and 11.21% of the study pixels. However, the biological factor underly drive changed from one-year previous EOS to the current year SOS with scarcely influenced by spatial resolution and sensors. Simultaneously, the influence of climate factors on EOS increased especially FRS with a significant (P © 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climate change

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Toxicological Effects and Toxicity Thresholds Of Lolium Perenne L. And Medicago Sativa L. Grown in Nh4+-Contaminated Soil from Ion-Type Rare Earth Mining Areas

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SSRN 2022年

作者： Yang, Huixian Zhou, Jun Fei, Jiasai Ci, Kaidong Li, Demin Fan, Jianbo Wei, Chaoyang Zhou, Jing Key Laboratory of Soil Environment and Pollution Remediation Institute of Soil Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Nanjing210008 China National Engineering and Technology Research Center for Red Soil Improvement Red Soil Ecological Experiment Station Chinese Academy of Sciences Yingtan335211 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China

Revegetation success plays an important role in mine site rehabilitation and environmental management. The process of ion-type rare earths ore leaching would induce NH4+ remaining and affects plants growth in the mining area. In this study, the toxicological effects and potential toxicity thresholds of increasing soil NH4+ concentrations on the growth (14 indicators) of ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) and alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) were investigated by dose-response models. The results show that high NH4+ concentration not only reduces the plant biomass and soluble sugars in leaves but also increases the H2O2 and MDA content, and SOD, POD, and GPX activities in roots. The SOD activities and root dry weight can be adopted as the most NH4+ sensitive biomarkers. Six ecotoxicological endpoints (root dry weight, soluble sugars, proline, H2O2, MDA, and GSH) of ryegrass, eight ecotoxicological endpoints (root dry weight, soluble sugars, proline, MDA, SOD, POD, GPX, and GSH) of alfalfa were selected to determine the thresholds concentrations, indicating that toxicity thresholds of NH4+ concentrations were proposed as 171.9 (EC5), 207.8 (EC10), 286.6 (EC25), 382.3 (EC50) mg kg−1 for ryegrass, and 171.9 (EC5), 193.2 (EC10), 234.7 (EC25), 289.6 (EC50) mg kg−1 for alfalfa. The obtained information on toxicity thresholds and the relation between plant physiological indicators and NH4+ concentrations may be used to assess the suitability of the investigated plants for ecological restoration strategies. © 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Toxicity

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Holocene vegetation dynamics and abrupt biodiversity shifts in the Zoige Basin, Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

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Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 2025年 675卷

作者： Weihe Ren Xiangqi Zhang Chen Liang Quan Li Feng Qin Guitian Yi College of Geography and Tourism Hengyang Normal University Hengyang 421010 China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Re-sources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China Department of Land Resource and Urban Planning Hebei GEO University Shijiazhuang 050031 China

Understanding vegetation responses to climate change is crucial for evaluating ecosystem resilience in high-altitude regions. This study presents a high-resolution Holocene pollen record (∼9700 years) from XingCo Lake in the Zoige Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We conducted pollen analysis, biome reconstruction, and diversity assessment. key findings include: 1) Pollen records from the Zoige Basin showed a consistent long-term trend of forest decline since the mid-Holocene, with multiple abrupt vegetation shifts. 2) After excluding Cyperaceae pollen, we observed a marked collapse of the Holocene vegetation optimum around 3.5 cal ka BP, aligned with transitions across the eastern Tibetan Plateau. 3) A notable shift in vegetation richness occurred around 2 cal ka BP under stable vegetation and minimal human impact, coinciding with a decoupling of temperature and moisture, and rising temperatures coupled with declining humidity, fostering increased palynological richness. These results suggest that the past vegetation-climate interactions in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and provide a valuable reference for modeling future vegetation responses in alpine ecosystems.

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Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Vulnerable Species in Gandaki River Basin,Central Himalayas

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Journal of Resources and Ecology 2022年第2期13卷 173-185页

作者： Raju RAI ZHANG Yili LIU Linshan Paras Bikram SINGH Basanta PAUDEL Bipin Kumar ACHARYA Narendra Raj KHANAL Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Kathmandu Center for Research and Education Chinese Academy of Sciences-Tribhuvan UniversityKathmandu 44613Nepal Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and UtilizationInstitute of ZoologyGuangdong Academy of ScienceGuangzhou 510260China Biodiversity Conservation Society Nepal Lalitpur 44700Nepal Department of Epidemiology School of Public HealthSun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China

Gandaki River Basin(GRB)is an important part of the central Himalayan region,which provides habitat for numerous wild ***,climatic changes are making the habitat in this basin more *** paper aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distributions of habitat changes for two vulnerable species,Himalayan black bear(Ursus thibetanus laniger)and common leopard(Panthera pardus fusca),using the maximum entropy(Max Ent)species distribution *** occurrence locations were used along with several bioclimatic and topographic variables(elevation,slope and aspect)to fit the model and predict the potential distributions(current and future)of the *** results show that the highly suitable area of Himalayan black bear within the GRB currently encompasses around 1642 km^(2)(5.01%area of the basin),which is predicted to increase by 51 km^(2) in the future(2050).Similarly,the habitat of common leopard is estimated as 3999 km^(2)(12.19%of the GRB area),which is likely to increase to 4806 km^(2) in ***,the habitat of Himalayan black bear is predicted to increase in the eastern part(Baseri,Tatopani and north from Bhainse)and to decrease in the eastern(Somdang,Chhekampar),western(Burtibang and Bobang)and northern(Sangboche,Manang,Chhekampar)parts of the study ***,the habitat of common leopard is projected to decrease particularly in the eastern,western and southern parts of the basin,although it is estimated to be extended in the southeastern(Bhainse),western(Harichaur and northern Sandhikhark)and north-western(Sangboche)parts of the *** determine the habitat impact,the environmental variables such as elevation,Bio 15(precipitation seasonality)and Bio 16(precipitation of wettest quarter)highly contribute to habitat change of Himalayan black bear;while Bio 13(precipitation of wettest month)and Bio 15 are the main contributors for common ***,this study predicted that the suitable habita

关键词： climate change habitat change Himalayan black bear(Ursus thibetanus laniger) common leopard(Panthera pardus fusca) Gandaki River Basin

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