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The spatial local accuracy of land cover datasets over the Qiangtang Plateau, High Asia

Journal of Geographical Sciences 2019年第11期29卷 1841-1858页

作者： LIU Qionghuan ZHANG Yili LIU Linshan LI Lanhui QI Wei Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101China

We analyzed the spatial local accuracy of land cover (LC) datasets for the Qiangtang Plateau,High Asia,incorporating 923 field sampling points and seven LC compilations including the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme Data and Information System (IGBPDIS),Global land cover mapping at 30 m resolution (Globeland30),MODIS land Cover Type product (MCD12Q1),Climate Change Initiative land Cover (CCI-LC),Global land Cover 2000 (GLC2000),University of Maryland (UMD),and GlobCover 2009 (Glob- Cover).We initially compared resultant similarities and differences in both area and spatial patterns and analyzed inherent relationships with data *** then applied a geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach to predict local accuracy *** results of this study reveal that distinct differences,even inverse time series trends,in LC data between CCI-LC and MCD12Q1 were present between 2001 and 2015,with the exception of category areal discordance between the seven *** also show a series of evident discrepancies amongst the LC datasets sampled here in terms of spatial patterns,that is,high spatial congruence is mainly seen in the homogeneous southeastern region of the study area while a low degree of spatial congruence is widely distributed across heterogeneous northwestern and northeastern *** overall combined spatial accuracy of the seven LC datasets considered here is less than 70%,and the Globeland30 and CCI-LC datasets exhibit higher local accuracy than their counterparts,yielding maximum overall accuracy (OA) values of 77.39% and 61.43%,***,5.63% of this area is characterized by both high assessment and accuracy (HH) values,mainly located in central and eastern regions of the Qiangtang Plateau,while most low accuracy regions are found in northern,northeastern,and western regions.

关键词： land cover datasets spatial accuracy assessment remote sensing Qiangtang Plateau High Asia

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Crop Model Ensemble Averaging: A Large But Underappreciated Uncertainty Source for Global Crop Yield Projections Under Climate Change

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Earth's Future 2025年第6期13卷

作者： Xiaomeng Yin Guoyong Leng Jiali Qiu Xiaoyong Liao Shengzhi Huang Jian Peng School of Geographical Sciences Hebei Normal University Shijiazhuang China Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction Shijiazhuang China Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China Xi'an University of Technology Xi'an China Department of Remote Sensing Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ Leipzig Germany Remote Sensing Centre for Earth System Research—RSC4Earth Leipzig University Leipzig Germany

Using an ensemble of crop models have been encouraged for global crop yield projections, which would, however, introduce additional uncertainty from the choice of ensemble averaging methods. Here, we use seven ensemble averaging methods including simple average, regression, Support Vector Regressor, Bayesian model average (BMA), Random Forest (RF), Artificial neural network (ANN) and Long-short term memory to derive the ensemble mean of eight process-based crop models for global maize yield projections. Results show that the choice of ensemble averaging methods has a large impact on the projection of long-term mean yield and year-to-year yield variability, with a range of −19.79%–16.62% and −47.92%–55.39% for the globe, respectively. Regionally, the largest uncertainties from the choice of ensemble averaging methods are observed in Indonesia and Canada. Further uncertainty decomposition analysis shows that ensemble averaging methods contributes to 39%–87% of total uncertainties for global yield projections, which is even higher than climate models. These results imply that although using an ensemble of crop models is valuable for informing risk-based policy-makings, how we choose to combine and derive the best estimates of crop model ensembles has large influence on the assessment outcomes. This study highlights an important but not well recognized uncertainty source for global yield predictions which arises from the choice of ensemble averaging methods. Seven ensemble averaging methods are evaluated for global yield projections Choice of ensemble averaging methods cause large uncertainties for yield projections Uncertainty from ensemble averaging methods is comparable to climate model uncertainty Process-based crop models are widely used for projecting future crop yield under climate change, but often show large uncertainties. Therefore, an ensemble of crop models is increasingly applied for global yield projections. Here, we show that the choice of ensemble averag

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Coupled Pacific Rim megadroughts contributed to the fall of the MingDynasty’s capital in 1644 CE

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Science Bulletin 2024年第19期69卷 3106-3114页

作者： Feng Chen Tao Wang Xiaoen Zhao Jan Esper Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist Ulf Büntgen Hans W.Linderholm David Meko Hongna Xu Weipeng Yue Shijie Wang Yujiang Yuan Jingyun Zheng Wei Pan Fidel Roig Martín Hadad Mao Hu Jiachang Wei Fahu Chen Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security Institute of International Rivers and Eco-SecurityYunnan UniversityKunming 650504China Southwest United Graduate School Kunming 650504China Climate Change Research Center and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg UniversityMainz 55099Germany Global Change Research Institute(CzechGlobe) Czech Academy of SciencesBrno 60300Czech Republic Department of History Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study LinneanumUppsala 75238Sweden Department of Geography University of CambridgeCambridge CB23ENUK Department of Geography Faculty of ScienceMasaryk UniversityBrno 61137Czech Republic Swiss Federal Research Institute(WSL) Birmensdorf 8903Switzerland Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of ArizonaTucson AZ 85721USA Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research Institute of Desert MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi 830002China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Digital Human Technology R&D and Application of Yunnan Provincial Department of Education Yunnan UniversityKunming 650504China Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental IANIGLA-CCT CONICET-Universidad Nacional de CuyoMendoza 5500Argentina Hémera Centro de Observación de La Tierra Escuela de Ingeniería ForestalFacultad de CienciasUniversidad MayorHuechuraba 85

Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE,when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine ***,the role climate and environmental changes may have played in this pivotal event in Chinese history remains ***,we provide tree-ring evidence of persistent megadroughts from1576 to 1593 CE and from 1628 to 1644 CE in northern China,which coincided with exceptionally cold summers just before the fall of *** analysis reveals that these regional hydroclimatic extremes are part of a series of megadroughts along the Pacific Rim,which not only impacted the ecology and society of monsoonal northern China,but likely also exacerbated external geopolitical and economic *** finding is corroborated by last millennium reanalysis data and numerical climate model simulations revealing internally driven Pacific sea surface temperature variations and the predominance of decadal scale La Ni?a-like conditions to be responsible for precipitation decreases over northern China,as well as extensive monsoon regions in the *** teleconnection patterns provide a mechanistic explanation for reoccurring drought spells during the late Ming Dynasty and the environmental framework fostering the fall of Beijing in 1644 CE,and the subsequent demise of the Ming Dynasty.

关键词： Paleoclimate Beijing Precipitation reconstruction Climate-society interactions Tree rings Ming Dynasty

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Risk Identification of Seismic landslides by Joint Newmark and RockFall Analyst Models: A case Study of Roads Affected by the Jiuzhaigou Earthquake

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2018年第3期9卷 392-406页

作者： Xiliu Yue Shaohong Wu Yunhe Yin Jiangbo Gao Jingyun Zheng Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Geological disasters are a great threat to people's lives and property. At present, it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the cascading effects of regional geological disasters, and the development of new methods for such evaluation is much needed. In this study, the authors have developed a joint procedure that couples the Newmark model and the RockFall Analyst model based on a GIS platform in order to identify the impact of seismic landslides on roads. The new method effectively combines two processes—seismic landslide occurrence probability analysis and mass movement trajectory simulation. The permanent displacement derived from the Newmark model is used to identify potential source areas of *** on the RockFall Analyst model, the possible impact of mass movement on the roads can be simulated. To verify the reliability of the method, the landslides induced by the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Earthquake were taken as a case *** results suggest that about 21.37% of the study area is at high risk of seismic landslides, and approximately 3.95 km of road sections are at extremely high risk of large landslides. The simulated area is consistent with the distribution of disasters revealed by post-earthquake remote sensing image interpretation and field investigation in existing studies. This indicates that the procedure, which joins the Newmark and RockFall models, has a high reliability for risk identification and can be applied to seismic landslide risk assessment and prediction in similar areas.

关键词： China Jiuzhaigou earthquake Newmark model Risk identification RockFall analyst model Seismic landslide

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气候变化加剧青藏高原及周边山区洪水灾害的复杂性与暴露风险（英文）

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Science Bulletin 2025年第10期 1601-1604页

作者：白远远李东锋 Sonam Wangchuk Albert Kettner 赵奕邓睿刘永效存德倪晋仁崔鹏 Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences Ministry of Education College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering Peking University State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of All Materials Flux in River Ecosystems Peking University Institute of Carbon Neutrality Peking University Institute of Tibetan Plateau Peking University International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development CSDMS Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences

High Mountain Asia (HMA), known as the "Asian Water Tower",is the Earth’s critical water source and provides important ecosystem services for millions of people in the downstream [1]. Due to its high altitude and extensive cryosphere, HMA is sensitive and vulnerable to climate change [1-3]. Currently, HMA has been experiencing a notable temperature increase at a rate twice that of the global average, accompanied by complex changes in precipitation patterns [1,4,5].

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A Sharpe ratio-integrated indicator system for land use changes ecological risks: Within coupled disaster-economic assessment frameworks

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Ecological Indicators 2025年 176卷

作者： Xuyang Zhang Wei Song He Gao Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China School of Earth and Environment Anhui University of Science and Technology Huainan 232001 Anhui China Hebei Collaborative Innovation Center for Urban-Rural Integration Development Shijiazhuang 050061 China School of Geosciences Yangtze University Wuhan 430100 China

Global climate change and human-induced land-use changes have threatened the stability of ecosystem service provision and intensified ecological risks. However, the ecological risk of land-use change (ERLUC) remains an emerging concept with unclear definitions and assessment methodologies. This study proposes a novel Sharpe ratiobased Ecological Risk Index (ERI) that integrates the probability of land use change occurrence with expected ecological benefits, applied to the North China Plain (NCP). key findings include: (1) Probability of land-use change can be defined as the likelihood of future transitions, while expected ecological benefits represent potential ecosystem service gains or losses from such changes. The Sharpe ratio effectively couples these parameters for risk assessment. (2) Under three scenarios – natural development, urban expansion, and ecological conservation – the mean ERI values were 0.4718, 0.4719, and 0.4703 respectively, indicating highest overall risk in urban expansion. (3) Spatial analysis revealed similar risk gradation patterns across the plain, dominated by medium–high risk areas (20.33%), followed by medium-risk (30.21%), with relatively smaller proportions of high-risk (13.77%) and medium–low risk (14.23%) zones. (4) Future projections show escalating risks in eastern regions, particularly along urban peripheries. This framework advances ecological risk science by integrating financial risk theory into land system analysis, providing policymakers with spatial targeting tools to balance developmental priorities and ecosystem security in rapidly urbanizing regions.

关键词： land-use change Ecological risks Ecosystem services Sharpe ratio CA-Markov model North China Plain

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Progress in Research on the Influences of Climatic Changes on the Industrial Economy in China

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Journal of Resources and Ecology 2020年第1期11卷 1-12页

作者： LIU Yuanzhe SONG Wei ZHAO Dongsheng GAO Jiangbo College of Geography and Environment Shandong Normal UniversityJinan 250358China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Global climate changes have led to ocean acidification,ice and snow melting,a continuous rise in temperature,and an increasing frequency of extreme weather events,with profound impacts on the social economic *** the aggravation from climate changes,even the industrial fields with a relatively strong resistance to climatic changes have also suffered serious *** present,the vulnerability of the industrial field is growing,and the absolute economic losses are *** quantitative evaluation of these industrial economic losses is therefore an important basis for formulating policies to tackle global climate change,and analyzing the current research progress can provide ideas and methods for the effective evaluation of the industrial ***,in this paper,we summarized both the positive and negative effects of climate changes on the industrial fields and found that the influences of climatic changes on different industrial sectors are slightly *** example,while the mining industry,so far,has positively responded to the changing climate,severe weather events such as storms,drought,and rain could severely impede the normal production and business operation activities of the mining industry in the *** manufacturing industry mostly involves indoor jobs,which are relatively resistant to extreme weather events,and some industries have complex response *** terms of the construction industry,its losses are mainly indirect through increased electricity *** production and supply industries for electricity,heat,and water would suffer transmission supply losses in extreme weather events;and as the largest carbon emission industries,the costs of emission reduction would affect the economic growth of this sector in the short ***,the industrial sectors pay relatively high costs for climate change mitigation and adaptation,and therefore,the quantitative evaluation of industrial economic losses through models i

关键词： climate change industrial economy extreme climate events carbon emission reduction

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Current soil erosion assessment in the Loess Plateau of China: A mini-review

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JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 2020年 276卷 123091-123091页

作者： Wen, Xin Deng, Xiangzheng [a]Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China [b]Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China [c]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

As one of the most intensively eroded regions worldwide, soil erosion assessment is currently gaining further momentum in the Loess Plateau (LP), China. However, there exist very few review studies that assess soil erosion in relation to land use and land cover (LULC), climate, and ecosystem services (ESs) at multiple temporal and spatial scales in the LP. Thus, this review provides a comprehensive review of the interactions among soil erosion assessment, climate change, LULC change, and ESs at different scales. We focused on the academic literature published in the English language and analyzed the coverage of soil erosion across 109 publications. Our results highlighted three aspects: (1) studies dealing with the effects of LULC change on soil erosion are abundant. A recent surge in research interest is to explore a threshold of vegetation cover to support a sustainable eco-hydrological environment in the LP. However, the impacts of multiple stressors on soil erosion have received limited attention. (2) The short-term soil erosion assessment dominated the published studies. Cross-spatial-scale and long-term erosion assessments have received little attention. (3) 43% of reviewed papers used a field measurement method to assess soil erosion with the validation of measurement methods. 41% of reviewed papers used empirical models to assess soil erosion, but the modeling validation remains an unsolved problem. Then, three recommendations are listed as follows: (1) the combined impacts of LULC and climate change on soil erosion need to be further examined. (2) Long-term and cross-spatial-scale soil erosion assessments need to be established. (3) Soil erosion modeling accuracy on a large scale needs to be developed. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Soil erosion land use Climate Ecosystem service Loess Plateau of China Review

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A model for integrated spatial land use characteristics linking to surface nutrient concentration

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International Journal of Digital Earth 2018年第10期11卷 1064-1084页

作者： Erqi Xu Hongqi Zhang Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingPeople’s Republic of China

Quantifying land use heterogeneity helps better understand how it influences biophysical *** use area proportions have been used conventionally to predict water quality *** an insight into the combined effect of various spatial characteristics could lead to the statistical bias and confused understanding in previous *** this study,using spatial techniques and mathematical models,a diagnostic model was developed and applied for quantifying and incorporating three spatial components,namely,slope,distance to sampling spots,and *** upper catchment of Miyun Reservoir was studied as the test *** nitrogen,total phosphorus,and chemical oxygen demand of water samples from field measurements were used to characterize the surface water quality in 52 *** parameter calibrations and determinations,combined spatial characteristics were explored and *** land use proportions were calculated by spatial weights of discriminating the relative contribution of each location to water quality and used to build the integrated *** with traditional methods only using area proportions,our model increased the explanatory power of land use and quantified the effects of spatial information on water *** can guide the optimization of land use configuration to control water eutrophication.

关键词： Spatial distance spatial arrangement land use water eutrophication

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Change in the Distribution of National Bird (Himalayan Monal) Habitat in Gandaki River Basin, Central Himalayas

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Journal of Resources and Ecology 2020年第2期11卷 223-231页

作者： Raju RAI Basanta PAUDEL GU Changjun Narendra Raj KHANAL Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Gandaki River Basin(GRB) is part of the central Himalayan region, which provides habitat for numerous wild species. However, due to changes in climate and land cover, the habitats of many protected species are at risk. Based on the maximum entropy(MaxEnt) model, coupled with bioclimatic layers, land cover and DEM data, the impacts of environmental factors on habitat suitability of Himalayan Monal(Lophophorus impejanus), a national bird of Nepal, was quantified. This study further assessed the present and future habitat and distribution of the Himalayan Monal in the context of climate and land cover changes. The results of this study show that the highly suitable habitat of Himalayan Monal presently occupies around 749 km^2 within the northern, eastern and western parts, particularly protected areas such as Langtang National Park, Manaslu Conservation Area and Annapurna Conservation Area, while it is likely to decrease to 561 km^2 by 2050, primarily in the northern and northwestern parts(i.e., Chhyo, Tatopani, Humde and Chame). These expected changes indicate increasing risk for Himalayan Monal due to a decline in its suitable habitat area.

关键词： climate change land cover Himalayan Monal habitat change Gandaki River Basin

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