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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2023年第10期33卷 2077-2093页

作者：高江波张怡博左丽媛 Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Accurately identifying the dominant factor of karst ecosystem services(ESs)is a prerequisite for the rocky desertification ***,the explanatory power of environmental factors on the spatial distribution of ESs is affected by scaling,and the quantitative research on the scale effect still needs to be further *** study used the geographical detector to access the explanatory power of environmental factors on soil erosion and water yield at different spatial resolutions,and then explored its differences in three geomorphological-type *** showed that slope and vegetation coverage were the dominant factors of soil erosion,and the interactive explanatory power between the two factors was *** by the universality of topographic relief and landscape fragmentation in the study area,the explanatory power of slope and land use type on soil erosion was optimal at low ***,elevation,and land use type were the dominant factors for the spatial heterogeneity of water yield,and the interaction between precipitation and land use type explained more than 95%of water *** spatial variability of elevation in different geomorphological-type areas affected its optimal explanatory power,specifically,in the terrace and hill-type areas,the spatial variability of elevation was weak,its explanatory power was optimal at high *** in the mountain-type areas,the spatial variability of elevation was strong,and its explanatory power was optimal at low *** study quantitatively identified the optimal explanatory power of ES variables through multi-scale analysis,which aims to provide a way and basis for accurate identification of the dominant factors of karst mountain ESs and zoning optimization.

关键词： optimal explanatory power scale effect soil erosion water yield karst mountainous areas

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全球超大城市空间扩张及分形特征

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2023年第12期33卷 2359-2376页

作者：侯亚丽匡文慧窦银银 Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Megacities serve as global centers for economic,cultural,and high-tech *** structural features and population agglomerations are typical traits of urbanization,yet little is known about the morphological features and expansion patterns of megacities *** we examined the spatiotemporal variations of urban land in megalopolises from 2000 to 2020 using the Urban Expansion Intensity Differentiation *** fractal features and expansion patterns of megacities were analyzed using the Area-Radius Multi-dimensional Scaling *** land use efficiency was then evaluated based on the linear relationship between urban land area and *** found that Southeast Asia and China were the hotspots of urban expansion in megacities from 2000 to 2020,with urban land areas expanding by 3148.32 km^(2)and 5996.26 km^(2),*** morphological features and expansion patterns of megacities exhibited a growing trend towards intensification and compactness,with the average radial dimension increasing from 1.54 to *** annual decrease in fractal dimensions indicated the integration of inner urban *** America and Europe megacities showed a low urban land use efficiency,with a ratio of urban land area to population ranging from 0.89 to 4.11 in ***,South Asia and Africa megacities exhibited a high urban land use efficiency,with the ratios between 0.23 and *** results provide information for promoting efficient urban land utilization and sustainable *** is proposed to control the scale of urban expansion and to promote balanced development between inner and outer urban areas for achieving resilient and sustainable urban development.

关键词： megacities radial dimension radial dimension difference urban expansion urban land use efficiency

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Monthly variations of groundwater arsenic risk under future climate scenarios in 2081–2100

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Environmental Science and Pollution Research 2023年第58期30卷 122230-122244页

作者： Wei, Binggan Yin, Shuhui Yu, Jiangping Yang, Linsheng Wen, Qiqian Wang, Ting Yuan, Xing Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences 11 A Datun Road Beijing100101 China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China

The seasonal variations of shallow groundwater arsenic have been widely documented. To gain insight into the monthly variations and mechanisms behind high groundwater arsenic and arsenic exposure risk in different climate scenarios, the monthly probability of high groundwater arsenic in Hetao Basin was simulated through random forest model. The model was based on arsenic concentrations obtained from 566 groundwater sample sites, and the variables considered included soil properties, climate, topography, and landform parameters. The results revealed that spatial patterns of high groundwater arsenic showed some fluctuations among months under different future climate scenarios. The probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic was found to be elevated at the start of the rainy season, only to rapidly decrease with increasing precipitation and temperature. The probability then increased again after the rainy season. The areas with an increased probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic and arsenic exposure risk under SSP126 were typically found in the high-arsenic areas of 2019, while those with decreased probabilities were observed in low-arsenic areas. Under SSP585, which involves a significant increase in precipitation and temperature, the probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic and arsenic exposure risk was widely reduced. However, the probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic and arsenic exposure risk was mainly observed in low-arsenic areas from SSP126 to SSP585. In conclusion, the consumption of groundwater for human and livestock drinking remains a threat to human health due to high arsenic exposure under future climate scenarios. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.

关键词： Groundwater

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Glacial-interglacial cycles recorded in clay minerals from the eastern Tibetan Plateau over the last 800 ka and their indications

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2162-2177页

作者： Xiaoyan ZHANG Chunxia ZHANG Yan ZHAO Bin HU Zhengtang GUO Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Earth Science and Engineering Shandong University of Science and TechnologyQingdao 266590China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Clay mineral proxies have been widely used to reconstruct changes in provenance and the ***,high-altitude clay mineral indications and long-term and orbital variations have not been fully ***,we present an800-ka clay-mineral record from a lacustrine sediment core(ZB13-C2)from the Zoige Basin on the eastern Tibetan Plateau(TP).X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy were used to identify the clay mineral assemblages and their micromorphological characteristics of core *** results revealed that the clay minerals in core ZB13-C2 are mainly illite,with small amounts of chlorite,kaolinite,and smectite(including irregular mixed-layers of illite-smectite(I/S)and chloritesmectite(C/S)).The clay mineral assemblages and proxies exhibit three stages of change,which are mainly controlled by the Zoige watershed range under different climate *** watershed was limited to the southeastern region with altitudes ranging from~3500 to~4200 meters above sea level(m a.s.l.),and glacial-interglacial hydraulic erosion controlled the input of bedrock debris during 800-621 ka *** expanded to higher altitudes(~4200 to~4700 m a.s.l.)due to stronger seasonal freezethaw weathering without significant glacial-interglacial variations under a cooling and drying climate during 621-100 ka ***,it expanded to its highest altitudes of~4700 to~5200 m *** of the watershed after 100 ka BP,and hydraulic erosion increased obviously under a warm climate of the interstadial MIS 3 on the *** watershed underwent two major expansions under different climatic conditions at~621 ka and 100 ka BP,with the wet/dry alternation became strong at~621 ka *** results reveal that long-term temperature changes and the wet/dry alternation at high altitudes controlled the watershed range and degree of the physical erosion,and that the indications of clay minerals should be carefully clarified before they are used as climate indicators,especi

关键词： Quaternary Zoige Basin Lacustrine sediments Paleoenvironment Weathering

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Modern pollen assemblages of the surface lake sediments from the steppe and desert zones of the Tibetan Plateau

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Science China Earth Sciences 2021年第3期64卷 425-439页

作者： Feng QIN Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China

Modern pollen analysis is the basis for revealing the palaeovegetation and palaeoclimate changes from fossil pollen *** studies pertaining to the modern pollen assemblages on the Tibetan Plateau have been conducted,but little attention has been paid to pollen assemblages of surface lake *** this study,modern pollen assemblages of surface lake sediments from 34 lakes in the steppe and desert zones of the Tibetan Plateau are investigated and results indicate that the two vegetation zones are dominated by non-arboreal pollen taxa and show distinctive *** pollen assemblages from the desert zone contain substantially high relative abundance of Chenopodiaceae while those from the steppe zone are dominated by *** ratios show great potential in terms of separating different vegetation zones and to indicate climate changes on the Tibetan *** Artemisia/Chenopodiaceae ratio and arboreal/non-arboreal pollen ratio could be used as proxies for winter ***/Cyperaceae ratio and the sum of relative abundance of xerophilous elements increase with enhanced warming and *** considering the vegetation coverage around the lakes,hierarchical cluster analysis suggests that the studied sites can be divided into four clusters:meadow,steppe,desert-steppe,and *** pollen-based vegetation classification models are established using a random forest *** random forest model can effectively separate the modern pollen assemblages of the steppe zone from those of the desert zone on the Tibetan *** model for distinguishing the four vegetation clusters shows a weaker but still valid classifying *** is expected that the random forest model can provide a powerful tool to reconstruct the palaeovegetation succession on the Tibetan Plateau when more pollen data from surface lake sediments are included.

关键词： Modern pollen assemblage Tibetan Plateau surface lake sediment Pollen-climate relationship Pollen-based vegetation classification model

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Multi-scale coupling analysis of urbanization and ecosystem services supply-demand budget in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2023年第2期33卷 340-356页

作者： ZHANG Fan XU Ning WANG Chao GUO Mingjing Pankaj KUMAR Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation School of EnvironmentBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of Economics and Management China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Key Laboratory of Land and Resources Strategy Research Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of ChinaBeijing 100812China Research Center of Resource and Environmental Economics China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Department of Geography Delhi School of EconomicsUniversity of DelhiNew Delhi 110021India

Rapid economic development and human activities have severely affected ecosystem *** of the spatial distribution of areas of rapid urbanization is the basis for optimizing urban-ecological spatial *** paper evaluated the spatial distribution of urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region,and then quantified the ecosystem services(ES)budget in the region based on an ES supply and demand *** results showed that(1)urbanization patterns in the BTH region were relatively stable from 2000 to 2015,with clear patterns of low levels of urbanization in the northwest and high levels in the southeast;(2)areas with positive ES budget values were found throughout the region,except in built-up areas,with high ES supply areas concentrated in the northwest,and high ES demand areas in the southeast;(3)at both the county and prefecture-city levels,urbanization had negative,positive,and negative correlations with ES supply,demand,and budget,respectively;(4)the coupling coordination degree(CCD)increased,with high CCD values in the *** on these results,policy recommendations include strengthening rational land-use planning and ecosystem management,promoting the coordinated development of the economy and ecological function,and coordinating the provision of production-life-ecological functions.

关键词： urbanization ecosystem services supply-demand coupling Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

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Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 547-556页

作者： Ai-Qing FENG Qing-Chen CHAO Lu-Lu LIU Ge GAO Guo-Fu WANG Xue-Jun ZHANG Qi-Guang WANG China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038China China Meteorological Administration Training Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic ***,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal *** integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were *** findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial *** July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,*** 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by *** towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the *** findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

关键词： Compound extreme event Joint return period Drought Heatwave Climate change Yangtze River Basin

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Revealing ecosystem services relationships and their driving factors for five basins of Beijing

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2021年第1期31卷 111-129页

作者： GAO Jiangbo ZUO Liyuan Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

A clear understanding of the relationships among multiple ecosystem services(ESs) is the foundation for sustainable urban ecosystem management. Quantitatively identifying the factors that influence ES trade-offs and synergies can contribute to deepening ES research, from knowledge building to decision making. This study simulated soil conservation, water yield and carbon sequestration in Beijing, China, from 2015–2018. The spatial trade-offs and synergies of these three ESs within the five major river basins in Beijing were explored using geographically weighted regression. Furthermore, geographical detector was applied to quantitatively identify the driving mechanism of the environmental factors for the ES trade-offs and synergies. The results show the following:(1) the spatial relationships between soil conservation and water yield, as well as between water yield and carbon sequestration, were mainly trade-offs. There was a spatial synergy between soil conservation and carbon sequestration.(2) Regarding the spatial trade-off/synergy between soil conservation and water yield in Beijing, the dominant influencing factor was temperature/elevation, and the dominant interactions of the spatial trade-off and synergy between these two ESs in Beijing and the Chaobai River Basin are all manifested in the superposition of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, temperature, and elevation.(3) Topographic factors were the dominant factors influencing the spatial relationship between soil conservation and carbon sequestration in Beijing and its five major river basins. As a result of the distribution of water systems and hydrological characteristics of the basins, differences were observed in the effects of different combinations of interaction factors on the spatial relationship between these two ESs in different basins.(4) Temperature had the strongest explanatory power in terms of the spatial trade-offs and synergies between water yield and carbon sequestration. The

关键词： ecosystem services trade-offs and synergies environmental factors basin scale Beijing

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The impact of COVID-19 on China’s regional economies and industries

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2021年第4期31卷 565-583页

作者： WU Feng LIU Guijun GUO Naliang LI Zhihui DENG Xiangzheng Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Scientifically assessing the economic impact of major public health emergencies,containing their negative effects,and enhancing the resilience of an economy are important national strategic *** new coronavirus disease(COVID-19)has,to date,been effectively contained in China,but the threat of imported cases and local risks still *** systematic identification of the virus’s path of influence and intensity is significant for economic *** study is based on a refined multi-regional general equilibrium analysis model,which measures the economic and industrial impacts at different epidemic risk levels in China and simulates development trends and the degree of damage to industries and the economy under changes to supplies of production materials and product *** results show that,at the macroeconomic level,China’s GDP will decline about 0.4%to 0.8%compared to normal in 2020,with an average drop of about 2%in short-term consumption,an average drop in employment of about 0.7%,and an average increase in prices of about 0.9%.At the industry level,the epidemic will have the greatest short-term impact on consumer and laborintensive *** example,the output value of the service industry will fall 6.3%compared to *** at the impact of the epidemic on the industrial system,the province most affected by the epidemic is Hubei,which is the only province in China in the level-1 risk *** the disease spread outward from Hubei,there were clear differences in the main industries that were impacted in different *** addition,simulation results of recovery intensity of regional economies under the two epidemic response scenarios of resumption of work and production and active fiscal stimulus policies show that an increase in fiscal stimulus policies produces a 0.3%higher rate of gross regional product growth but it causes commodity prices to rise by about 1.8%.Measures to resume work and production offer a wider scope for industria

关键词： COVID-19 economic system impact industrial impact zoning classification multi-region general equilibrium system resilience recovery strategy

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Uncertainty of temperature rise under nationally determined contributions and carbon neutral policies

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第4期14卷 580-586页

作者： Jie-Wei CHEN Hui-Juan CUI Nan CHEN Guo-Qiang QIAN Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Sino Carbon Innovation&Investment Co. Ltd.Beijing 100007China

Nationally determined contributions raised by Paris Agreement aim to control the temperature rise below 2°C or even 1.5°C at the end of the 21st century,compared to pre-industrial ***,the climate response of the Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)remains uncertain due to unstable policies and their *** this study,we calculated the uncertainty of global temperature rise caused by uncertain NDCs and carbon-neutral policies and discussed the difficulty of policy *** results show that there will be 8 GtC uncertainty in emission at the end of the 21st century,responsible for the temperature rise of 0.37°C(1.73–2.10°C).A delayed policy in emission reduction by major emitters would result in a temperature rise of over 2°C,while under non-delay policy,the 2°C target will be possibly ***,low-emission countries would introduce a 30 GtC cumulative emission uncertainty at the end of the 21st century if there are no restrictions,leading to a 0.3°C global warming *** countries need more substantial reductions in carbon intensity to achieve their climate policies while developing countries are under less *** reduction of carbon intensity requires the strengthening of technical and economic *** study provides a reference for the realization of emission policies and temperature rise targets.

关键词： Uncertainty Temperature rise Nationally determined contribution Carbon neutrality Carbon emission intensity

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