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The characteristics and future projections of fire danger in the areas around mega-city based on meteorological data–a case study of Beijing

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第3期18卷 637-648页

作者： Mengxin BAI Wupeng DU Zhixin HAO Liang ZHANG Pei XING Beijing Municipal Climate Center Beijing Meteorological ServiceBeijing 100089China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

It is crucial to investigate the characteristics of fire danger in the areas around Beijing to increase the accuracy of fire danger monitoring,forecasting,and *** meteorological data from 17 national meteorological stations in the areas around Beijing from 1981−2021,this study calculated the fire weather index(FWI)and analyzed its spatiotemporal *** was found that the high and low fire danger periods were in April−May and July−August,with spatial patterns of“decrease in the northwest−increase in the southeast”and a significant increase throughout the areas around Beijing,***,the contributions of different meteorological factors were quantified by the multiple regression *** found that during the high fire danger period,the northern and southern parts were affected by precipitation and minimum relative humidity,***,most areas were influenced by wind speed during the low fire danger ***,comparing with the FWI characteristics under different SSP scenarios,we found that the FWI decreased during high fire danger period and increased during low fire danger period under different SSP scenarios(i.e.,SSP245,SSP585)for periods of 2021−2050,2071−2100,2021−2100,except for SSP245 in 2071−2100 with an increasing trend both in high and low fire danger *** study implies that there is a higher probability of FWI in the low fire danger period,threatening the ecological environment and human ***,it is necessary to enhance research on fire danger during the low fire danger period to improve the ability to predict summer fire danger.

关键词： meteorological data-based fire danger areas around Beijing climate characteristics SSP scenarios

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Ecological compensation for winter wheat abandonment in groundwater over-exploited areas in the North China Plain

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2016年第10期26卷 1463-1476页

作者：王学李秀彬辛良杰谈明洪李升发王仁靖 Key laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

The land fallow policy was adopted by central and local governments to encourage the abandonment of water-intensive crops, such as winter wheat, in groundwater over-exploited areas. At the same time, since the 1990s, many households in the North China Plain （NCP） have chosen to replace the winter wheat and summer maize double-cropping system with the spring maize single-cropping system. Therefore, it is crucial to identify target land parcels for winter wheat abandonment and to design reasonable and proper standards for ecological compensation prior to the implementation of the land fallow policy in the NCP. In this study, multi-level Iogit models were used with household survey data in order to detect determinants across land parcel, household and village levels on household cropping system decisions; the opportunity costs for winter wheat abandonment were also calculated using cost-benefit analysis. The results show that：（1） land quality and irrigation condition at parcel level are two essential elements influencing household cropping system decisions. Nearly 70% of the total area of poor land and more than 90% of the total area of unirrigated land has suffered winter wheat abandonment. Target land parcels for the land fallow policy should be those that are irrigated and of high quality. （2） There were no significant differences between net profits from spring maize and summer maize under similar farming conditions, and the opportunity cost for winter wheat abandonment should be equal to the net profit of winter wheat. （3） The primary purpose of the land fallow policy is to induce groundwater recovery and restoration as a preliminary stage. A higher level of 350 yuan/mu is recommended as subsidy for ecological compensation at this stage. Later, the primary purpose of the policy should be a transition to a balance between exploitation and supplementation of water resources, and a lower level of 280 yuan/mu is recommended as a subsidy at this stage.

关键词： land fallow ecological compensation multi-level Iogit model opportunity cost groundwaterover-exploited areas

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Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2016年第7期26卷 827-854页

作者：葛全胜郑景云郝志新刘洋李明启 Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

China is distinguished by a prominent monsoonal climate in the east of the country, a continental arid climate in the northwest and a highland cold climate on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Because of the long history of Chinese civilization, there are abundant and well-dated documentary records for climate variation over the whole of the country as well as many natural archives（e.g., tree-rings, ice cores, stalagmites, varved lake sediments and corals） that enable high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstruction. In this paper, we review recent advances in the reconstruction of climate and extreme events over the last 2000 years in China. In the last 10 years, many new reconstructions, based on multi-proxies with wide spatial coverage, have been published in China. These reconstructions enable us to understand the characteristics of climate change across the country as well as the uncertainties of regional reconstructions. Synthesized reconstructed temperature results show that warm intervals over the last 2000 years occurred in AD 1–200, AD 551–760, AD 951–1320, and after AD 1921, and also show that cold intervals were in AD 201–350, AD 441–530, AD 781–950, and AD 1321–1920. Extreme cold winters, seen between 1500 and 1900, were more frequent than those after 1950. The intensity of regional heat waves, in the context of recent global warming, may not in fact exceed natural climate variability seen over the last 2000 years. In the eastern monsoonal region of China, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial oscillations are seen in rainfall variability. While the ensemble mean for drought/flood spatial patterns across all cold periods shows a meridional distribution, there is a tri-pole pattern with respect to droughts south of 25°N, floods between 25° and 30°N, and droughts north of 30°N for all warm periods. Data show that extreme drought events were most frequent in the periods AD 301–400, AD 751–800, AD 1051–1150, AD 1501–1550, and AD 1601–1650, while extreme flood events w

关键词： high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstruction extreme events China 2000 years

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Frequency and size change of ice–snow avalanches in the central Himalaya:A case from the Annapurna Ⅱ glacier

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 464-475页

作者： Yao LI Yi-Fei CUI Jian-Sheng HAO Zheng-Tao ZHANG Hao WANG Jian GUO Shuo-Fan WANG State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering Department of Hydraulic EngineeringTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere Sciences of the Ministry of Water Resources Beijing 100084China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China School of National Safety and Emergency Management Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China

Glaciers have retreated and shrunk in High Mountain Asia since the mid-20th century because of global warming,leading to glacier instability and hazardous iceesnow ***,the complex relationship between iceesnow avalanches and factors such as climate and potential triggers are difficult to understand because of the lack of observational ***,we addressed iceesnow avalanches on the Annapurna Ⅱ glacier in Nepal,Central *** constructed an iceesnow avalanche history using long-term multi-source remote sensing images(1988-2021)and mapped the velocity fields of glaciers using cross-correlation analysis on SAR and optical ***,we investigated the impact of climate change and earthquakes on the frequency and size of iceesnow *** results demonstrate that the frequency of iceesnow avalanches has increased from 10 in 1988 to 27 in 2020,but the average area of iceesnow avalanche deposits has decreased by approximately 70%,from 3.4×10^(5) m^(2) in 1988 to 1.2×10^(5) m^(2) in *** evolutionary characteristic of ice avalanches is linked to the impact of glacier retreat(reduction in ice material supply)and increased activity under climate *** glacier movement velocity controls the size of iceesnow avalanches and can be set as an indicator for iceesnow avalanche *** the Annapurna Ⅱ glacier,an iceesnow avalanche occurred when the glacier velocities were greater than 1.5 m d^(-1).These results offer insights into iceesnow avalanche risk assessment and prediction in high-mountain areas,particularly in regions characterised by dense glacier distribution.

关键词： Iceesnow avalanche Glacier instability Climate change Central Himalaya Remote sensing

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Using MaxEnt Model to Guide Marsh Conservation in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China

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Chinese Geographical Science 2019年第6期29卷 962-973页

作者： WANG Zhiliang ZHANG Bai ZHANG Xuezhen Tian Hongxu Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Science Qiqihar UniversityQiqihar 161006China Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of SciencesChangchun 130102China

Incorporating private and working lands into protected area networks could mitigate the isolation state of protected areas(PAs) and improve the efficiency of *** how to select patches of land for conservation is still a troublesome *** this study, the MaxEnt model and irreplaceability index were applied to guide marsh conservation in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast *** to the high accuracy of the MaxEnt model predictions(i.e., the average AUC value = 0.933), the Wuyuer River and Zhalong marshes in the downstream reaches of Wuyuer River are the optimal habitat for the Red-crowned crane and migratory *** are 22 marsh patches selected by the patch irreplaceability index for conservation, of which 12 patches had been included in the current network of protected *** other 10 patches of marsh(amounting to 1096 km^2) far from human disturbances with high NDVI(up to 0.8) and close distance to water(less than 100 m), which are excluded from the existing network of PAs, should be implemented conservation easement programs to improve the protection efficiency of ***, the marshes at Taha, Tangchi, and Lamadian should be given priority for conservation and restoration to reintroduce migratory waterfowls, as this would lessen the current isolation state of the Zhalong National Nature Reserve.

关键词： MaxEnt model irreplaceability index marsh conservation Red-crowned crane(Grus japonensis) Nenjiang River Basin

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Changes in agricultural virtual water in Central Asia,1992-2016

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2020年第11期30卷 1909-1920页

作者： YAN Ziyan TAN Minghong Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China International College University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

In recent years,flows of many rivers and lakes have become reduced in arid and semi-arid regions around the *** most typical examples of this phenomenon occur in Central Asia,and the reduction of the Aral Sea area is closely related to agricultural water ***,due to a lack of continuous data in Central Asia spanning many years,"virtual water"is used to evaluate changes in agricultural water *** on virtual water theory,325 kinds of agricultural products in eight categories are selected as the research object,and changes in virtual water are calculated for Central Asia from 1992 to *** indicate that:(1)The average annual net export of agricultural virtual water(TVWNE)in Central Asia is about 9 billion m3,concentrated in Kazakhstan,whose annual TVWNE reaches 8.1 billion m3.(2)Since 2007,the TVWNE in Central Asia has dropped significantly,with a drop rate of 86%,while the total volume of agricultural virtual water has gradually increased since 1998.(3)The upstream and downstream countries in Central Asia have different characteristics in the change of virtual water quantity.

关键词： Central Asia agricultural products virtual water

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Orderly adaptation to climate change： A roadmap for the post-Paris Agreement Era

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Science China Earth Sciences 2018年第1期61卷 119-122页

作者： WU ShaoHong PAN Tao LIU YanHua GAO JiangBo HE XiaoJia Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China The Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21 Beijing 100038 China

Mitigation and adaptation are two complementary strategies for addressing climate ***,adaptation has received far less attention than *** response to observed and future climate change,the currently adopted measures for adaptation are ***,constraints,costs and other limitations to adaptation have not been fully recognized(Field et al.,2014).

关键词： adaptation mitigation currently constraints addressing limitations warming costs sector insufficient

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Mapping cropping patterns in the North China Plain over the past 300 years and an analysis of the drivers of change

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2024年第10期34卷 2074-2088页

作者： LI Shicheng LIU Yating LI Jianrui ZHANG Xuezhen School of Public Administration China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

It is essential to map the cropping patterns when investigating the mechanisms and impacts of climate ***,the long-term evolution of cropping patterns remains poorly *** study collected hundreds of records of cropping intensity and crop combinations from local gazetteers and other relevant articles for the North China Plain(NCP)over the past 300 ***,we analyzed the evolutionary characteristics and drivers in terms of climate change and advances in agricultural *** the Qing Dynasty to the 1950s,one harvest per year(1H1Y)was the dominant pattern in the northern NCP,and three harvests in two years(3H2Y)was the dominant pattern in Henan and Shandong *** 1H1Y crops were cereals and *** 3H2Y crop combinations were spring maize,winter wheat,and *** the 1960s and 1970s,the cropping intensity in much of the NCP was two harvests per year(2H1Y)or a mix of the 2H1Y and 3H2Y *** the 1980s,the cropping intensity in the NCP was dominated by *** the 1960s,the 2H1Y crop compositions have been winter wheat-summer maize in Shandong,Henan,and Hebei provinces,while winter wheat-rice dominated north of the Huaihe *** 3H2Y summer crop changed from beans to maize/cereals over *** warming was not the dominant factor driving the evolution of cropping intensity in the *** in agricultural production conditions and reforms in production relations have promoted the rapid development of multiple cropping since the 1950s.

关键词： North China Plain Qing Dynasty cropping intensity crop combinations crop harvest frequency climate change

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Planting area and production decreased for winter-triticeae crops but increased for rapeseed in Ukraine with climatic impacts dominating

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Geography and Sustainability 2025年第2期6卷 108-116页

作者： Jichong Han Yuchuan Luo Zhao Zhang Jialu Xu Yi Chen Senthold Asseng Jonas Jägermeyr Christoph Müller Jørgen E Olesen Reimund Rötter Fulu Tao Joint International Research Laboratory of Catastrophe Simulation and Systemic Risk Governance School of National Safety and Emergency ManagementBeijing Normal UniversityZhuhai 519087China School of Systems science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station School of Geographical SciencesSouthwest UniversityChongqing 400715China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Technical University of Munich Department of Life Science EngineeringDigital AgricultureHEF World Agricultural Systems CenterFreisingGermany NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New YorkNYUSA Columbia University Center for Climate Systems ResearchNew YorkNYUSA Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research(PIK) Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdamGermany Department of Agroecology Aarhus UniversityTjeleDenmark University of Götingen Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling(TROPAGS)GötingenGermany University of Götingen Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use(CBL)GötingenGermany College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

On-time mapping dynamics of crop area,yield,and production is important for global food *** information,however,is often not ***,we used satellite information,a spectral-phenology integration approach for mapping crop area,and a machine learning model for predicting yield in the war-stricken *** found that in Ukraine crop area and production declined in 2022 relative to 2017–2021 and 2021 for wintertriticeae crops,which was invaded before the cropping season in February of that *** the same time,crop area and production for rapeseed increased in Ukraine,with yields consistently lower by 6.5%relative to *** low precipitation and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict-related factors contributed to such yield variations by-1.3%and-0.9%for winter-triticeae crops and-4.2%and-0.5%for rapeseed in *** demonstrate a robust framework for monitoring country-wide crop production dynamics in near real-time,serving as an early-foodsecurity-warning system.

关键词： Food security Conflict Machine learning Production Satellite

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Wind Tunnel Study of Multiple Factors Affecting Wind Erosion from Cropland in Agro-pastoral Area of Inner Mongolia,China

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Journal of Mountain Science 2013年第1期10卷 68-74页

作者： HE Ji-jun CAI Qiang-guo CAO Wen-qing State Key Laboratory Incubation Base of Urban Environmental Processes and Digital Simulation Elementary Educational CollegeCapital Normal University State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau Institute of Water and Soil ConservationChinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences

In this paper,the process of wind erosion on two kinds of soil from the agro-pastoral area of Inner Mongolia are studied using wind tunnel experiments,considering the wind speed,blown angle of wind and soil moisture *** results showed that the modulus of soil wind erosion increases with an increase of wind *** the wind speed exceeds a critical value,the soil wind erosion suddenly *** critical speed for both kinds of soil is within the range of 7-8m·*** a constant wind speed,the rate of soil wind erosion changes from increasing to falling at a critical soil *** critical slope of loam soil and sandy loam soil is 20° and 10°,*** moisture content has a significant effect on wind *** wind erosion of both soils decreases with an increase of the soil water content in two treatments,however,for treatment two,the increasing trends of wind erosion for two soils with the falling of soil water content are no significant,especially for the loam soil,and in the same soil water content,the wind erosion of two soils in treatment one is significantly higher than treatment two,this indicates reducing the disturbance of soil surface can evidently control the soil wind erosion.

关键词： Agro-pastoral area Soil wind erosion Critical slope Wind tunnel experiment

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