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Risk Assessment of Debris Flows Along the Karakoram Highway (Kashgar‑Khunjerab Section) in the Context of Climate Change

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第4期14卷 586-599页

作者： Yamei Li Qiang Zou Jiansheng Hao Lijun Su State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources(TPESER)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences Islamabad 45320Pakistan Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The Karakoram highway(KKH)is renowned for its complex natural environment and geological *** climate changes drastically and directly infuences the frequency and magnitude of debris fows in this region,resulting in signifcant casualties and economic ***,the risk assessment of debris fows along the KKH in the context of climate change has been rarely ***,in this study we used the debris fow data,historical meteorological data and future climate prediction data to assess the debris fow risk of the study region during the baseline period(2009–2018),2025s(2021–2030),2035s(2031–2040)and 2045s(2041–2050)under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 *** results show that the risk of debris fows increases with climate change,with the highest risk level in the *** diferent parts of this highway,the upper reaches of the Ghez River and the second half of Tashkorgan-Khunjerab are the sections with the highest *** fndings are helpful for debris fow prevention and can ofer coping strategies for the existing line of the *** also provide some reference for the renovation,improvement,operation,and maintenance of the KKH.

关键词： Climate change Debris fows Karakoram highway Risk assessment

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Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 547-556页

作者： Ai-Qing FENG Qing-Chen CHAO Lu-Lu LIU Ge GAO Guo-Fu WANG Xue-Jun ZHANG Qi-Guang WANG China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038China China Meteorological Administration Training Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic ***,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal *** integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were *** findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial *** July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,*** 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by *** towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the *** findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

关键词： Compound extreme event Joint return period Drought Heatwave Climate change Yangtze River Basin

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Vertical distribution changes in land cover between 1990 and 2015 within the Koshi River Basin,Central Himalayas

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2021年第10期31卷 1419-1436页

作者： WU Xue PAUDEL Basanta ZHANG Yili LIU Linshan WANG Zhaofeng XIE Fangdi GAO Jungang SUN Xiaomin Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Texas A&M AgriLife Blackland Res&Extens CtrTempleTX 76502USA

The study of mountain vertical natural belts is an important component in the study of regional *** areas are especially sensitive to climate change and have indicative function,which is the core of three-dimensional zonality ***,based on high precision land cover and digital elevation model(DEM)data,and supported by MATLAB and ArcGIS analyses,this paper aimed to study the present situation and changes of the land cover vertical belts between 1990 and 2015 on the northern and southern slopes of the Koshi River Basin(KRB).Results showed that the vertical belts on both slopes were markedly different from one *** vertical belts on the southern slope were mainly dominated by cropland,forest,bare land,and glacier and snow *** contrast,grassland,bare land,sparse vegetation,glacier and snow cover dominated the northern *** found that the main vertical belts across the KRB within this region have not changed substantially over the past 25 *** contrast,on the southern slope,the upper limits of cropland and bare land have moved to higher elevation,while the lower limits of forest and glacier and snow cover have moved to higher *** upper limit of alpine grassland on the northern slope retreated and moved to higher elevation,while the lower limits of glacier and snow cover and vegetation moved northward to higher *** in the vertical belt were influenced by climate change and human activities over *** was mainly controlled by human activities and climate warming,and the reduced precipitation also led to the abandonment of cropland,at least to a certain *** in grassland and forest ecosystems were predominantly influenced by both human activities and climate *** the same time,glacier and snow cover far away from human activities was also mainly influenced by climate warming.

关键词： vertical belt land cover Central Himalayas Koshi River Basin climate change

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Gridded reconstruction of the population in the traditional cultivated region of China from 1776 to 1953

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第2期65卷 365-378页

作者： Xuezhen ZHANG Fahao WANG Weidong LU Shicheng LI Jingyun ZHENG Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Faculty of Geographic Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Center for Historical Geographical Studies Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433China Department of Land Resource Management School of Public AdministrationChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Using modern census and environmental factor data,this study first identified the environmental factors that significantly affect the population distribution through Geodetector analysis and then constructed a population spatial distribution model based on the random forest regression ***,with this model and historical population data that were examined and corrected by historians,gridded population distributions with a spatial resolution of 10 km by 10 km in the traditional cultivated region of China(TCRC,hereafter)were reconstructed for six time slices from 1776 to *** the reconstruction dataset,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the population distribution were *** results showed that(1)the environmental factors that significantly affected the population density differences among counties in the TCRC mainly consisted of elevation,slope,relief amplitude,distances to the nearest prefectural and provincial capitals,distance to the nearest river and the climatology moisture index.(2)Using the census data of 1934 counties in the TCRC in 2000 and the abovementioned environmental factor data,a random forest regression algorithm-based population spatial distribution model was *** determination coefficient(R^(2))is *** 88.4%of the counties(districts),the relative errors of the model predictions were less than 50%.(3)From 1776 to 1953,the total population in the study area showed an *** to 1851,the population increased mainly in the Yangtze River *** this period,the number of grid cells in which the population densities were greater than 500 persons per km^(2) increased from 292 to *** 1851 to 1953,the population increased extensively across the study *** the North China Plain and the Pearl River Delta,the number of grid cells in which the population densities were greater than 500 persons per km^(2) increased from 36 to 88 and from 4 to 35,*** spatial clustering pattern of the popula

关键词： Population Traditional cultivated region of China(TCRC) Historical periods Gridded reconstruction

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AN IMPROVED ALGORITHM FOR TERRAIN RENDERING

AN IMPROVED ALGORITHM FOR TERRAIN RENDERING

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IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium

作者： Wei Cao Lin Huang Yunfeng Hu Duanyang Xu Hongyan Ren Junxing Yang Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The real-time visualization of large-scale terrain is a very complex and challenging problem, as the increasing resolution of geometry and texture has greatly exceeded the rendering capabilities of the available hardware. This is an active research area, and has attracted the interest of researchers for decades. To solve this problem, LOD-based algorithms of various forms have been proposed. These aim to reduce the complexity of the geometry and decrease the number of triangles that must be rendered. In this paper we will mainly focus on LOD generation, data scheduling and terrain popping, and put forward a new approach for terrain rendering. To promote rendering efficiency, we will take advantage of the programmability of GPU and immigrate some algorithms from CPU to GPU.

关键词： Rendering (computer graphics) Indexes Graphics processing units Geometry Real-time systems Hardware Testing

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Evolutionary process and development implications of traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第9期32卷 1847-1865页

作者： WU Shihai YAN Jianzhong ZHANG Yili PENG Ting SU Kangchuan College of Resources and Environment Southwest UniversityChongqing400716China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China College of Geographical Science Southwest UniversityChongqing400716China

Traditional trade routes that penetrate the natural barrier of the Himalayas are critical for connecting major Chinese and South Asian *** on these trade routes can contribute significantly to facilitating the construction of the South Asian Corridor and enhancing trans-Himalayan *** historical literature,field surveys,and geographic information system(GIS)techniques,this study examined the spatial distribution characteristics and evolution process of the routes,focusing on transverse valleys of the Himalayan *** key findings were as ***,there are 21 traditional trade routes traversing the Himalayan region:six Sino-Nepalese routes,four Sino-Bhutanese routes,and eleven Sino-Indian ***,the evolution of traditional trade routes has entailed five distinct phases:an incipient period(pre-7th century),formation(7th century-842 AD),development(842-1959),decline(1959-1962)and recovery(1962-present).Third,the incipient and formative developmental phases were prompted by the spread of Buddhism and the exchange of *** stability of local governments in Tibet and Central China and favourable border trade policies along with Britain’s colonial expansion and commercial interests stimulated further development of traditional trade ***,India’s strategic miscalculation and“Forward Policy”instigated the decline phase,while the demands of regional cooperation and development are currently the key drivers of the restoration and construction ***,to shelve disputes,promote cooperation and development,and enhance political mutual trust,governments should recover and construct traditional trade routes by replanning and constructing border trade markets,expanding border trade,developing pilgrimage and tourism,and strengthening cross-border cooperative resear h under global climate change.

关键词： traditional trade routes evolution process and mechanism cooperation and development Himalayan region

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The impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in Bai River basin, northern China

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Hydrology Research 2013年第5期44卷 875-885页

作者： Zhan, Chesheng Niu, Cunwen Song, Xiaomeng Xu, Chongyu Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038 China State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute Nanjing 210029 China Department of Geosciences University of Oslo Blindern 0316 Oslo Norway

Both the time series analysis method and hydrological modeling approach are integrated to analyze the streamflow response to climate variability and human activities in the Bai River basin, northern China using data from 1986 to 1998 in this study. Also, the quantification and separation of effects from climate variability and human activities is investigated. First, the Fu formula based on Budyko hypothesis was applied to explore the integrated underlying surface characteristics in the whole basin, and then the SIMHYD model was calibrated and validated using the data from 1986 to 1990 (pre-treatment period). The calibrated model was then used to simulate streamflow in the period 1991 to 1998 (testing period) and obtain quantitative assessment on the impacts of climate variability and human activities. The difference of observed streamflows between the pre-treatment period and the testing period reflects the combined influence of climate variability and human activities in the basin, while the difference between simulated and observed streamflow during the testing period reflects the impact of human activities in the catchment. The results show that the contribution rate of climate to the streamflow change in the basin is 37.5 and 62.5% for human activities. Human activities exerted a dominant influence upon streamflow change in the Bai River basin. © IWA Publishing 2013.

关键词： Time series analysis

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Compound extreme events and health risks in China: A review

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年

作者： Haosu Tang Gang Huang Kaiming Hu Jun Wang Cunrui Huang Xianke Yang School of Geography and Planning University of Sheffield Sheffield UK National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Vanke School of Public Health Tsinghua University Beijing China MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River College of Plant Science and Technology Huazhong Agricultural University Hubei China

Against the backdrop of global warming, China has been facing increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather and climate events, with a prominent risk of compound extreme events induced by interactions among multiple climate drivers and/or hazards. The present study first reviews the definition and classification of compound extreme events in China. Then, it summarizes research progress on the evolutionary characteristics, formation mechanisms, and future projections of different types of compound extreme events. The potential risks and possible impact pathways of three specific event types—namely, continuous day–night hot extremes, temperature–humidity compound events, and high-temperature–ozone compound events—on the health of the Chinese population are then explored. Finally, a framework for assessing the hazard risk of compound extreme events is constructed, accompanied by response strategies based on carbon neutrality targets. Building on existing research achievements, five future research directions are proposed: (1) identifying the risk chains of compound events; (2) addressing the constraints of observational records and coupled model performances; (3) attributing and understanding the drivers of compound extreme events; (4) finding optimal pathways for carbon reduction and air quality improvement; and (5) promoting inter-disciplinary, multi-regional, and cross-sectoral collaboration. Strengthening research in these directions will deepen our understanding of compound extreme events and provide technological support for climate change adaptation and health risk responses in China. 在全球变暖的背景下, 中国面临着日益频繁和严峻的极端天气气候事件, 其中以多种气候驱动因子和/或灾害相互作用而形成的复合型极端事件风险尤为突出.本文首先回顾了中国区域复合型极端事件的定义与分型;然后综述了不同类型复合型极端事件的演变特征,形成机制以及未来预估等方面的研究进展;随后, 探讨了日夜持续型极端高温事件,温湿复合事件以及高温–臭氧复合事件等三类事件对我国人群健康的潜在风险及可能的影响途径;最后, 阐述了复合型极端事件灾害风险评估框架, 并在此基础上提出了基于碳中和目标的应对策略.在总结既有研究成果的基础上, 提出了五个未来亟需关注的研究方向:(1)复合事件灾害风险链的识别问题;(2)观测资料和耦合模式性能的制约问题;(3)复合型极端事件的归因与成因问题;(4)碳减排与空气质量改善的最优路径问题;(5)多学科,多区域,多部门的合作问题.加强上述方

关键词： Global warming Extreme weather Compound extreme event Air pollution Population health Carbon neutrality 全球变暖极端天气复合型极端事件大气污染人群健康碳中和

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Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under a high-emissions scenario

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2019年第1期29卷 29-48页

作者： MA Danyang DENG Haoyu YIN Yunhe WU Shaohong ZHENG Du Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Henan Province Development and Reform Commission

Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this paper projects trends in the area of arid/humid climate regions of China over the next 100 years. It also identifies the regions of arid/humid patterns change and analyzes their temperature sensitivity of responses. Results show that future change will be characterized by a significant contraction in the humid region and an expansion of arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the sub-humid region will expand by 28.69% in the long term (2070-2099) relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Under 2°C and 4°C warming, the area of the arid/humid transition zones is projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72% of the total of China. The humid region south of the Huaihe River Basin, which is affected mainly by a future increase in evapotranspiration, will retreat southward and change to a sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China will intensify with accelerating global warming.

关键词： arid/humid patterns climate change sensitivity aridity index China

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Agent-based model of land system:Theory,application and modelling framework

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2020年第10期30卷 1555-1570页

作者： DAI Erfu MA Liang YANG Weishi WANG Yahui YIN Le TONG Miao Lhasa Plateau Ecosystem Research Station Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and ModelingInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China School of Geography and Planning Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China

land change science has become an interdisciplinary research direction for understanding human-natural coupling *** a process-oriented modelling approach,agent based model(ABM)plays an important role in revealing the driving forces of land change and understanding the process of land *** paper starts from three aspects:The theory,application and modeling framework of ***,we summarize the theoretical basis of ABM and introduce some related *** we expound the application and development of ABM in both urban land systems and agricultural land systems,and further introduce the case study of a model on Grain for Green Program in Hengduan Mountainous region,*** the basis of combing the ABM modeling protocol,we propose the land system ABM modeling framework and process from the perspective of *** terms of urban land use,ABM research initially focused on the study of urban expansion based on landscape,then expanded to issues like urban residential separation,planning and zoning,ecological functions,*** terms of agricultural land use,ABM application presents more diverse and individualized *** topics include farmers’behavior,farmers’decision-making,planting systems,agricultural policy,*** to traditional models,ABM is more complex and difficult to generalize beyond specific context since it relies on local knowledge and ***,due to its unique bottom-up model structure,ABM has an indispensable role in exploring the driving forces of land change and also the impact of human behavior on the environment.

关键词： land system land use land change science land change model agent-based model modeling framework

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