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Agent-based model of land system:Theory,application and modelling framework

Journal of Geographical Sciences 2020年第10期30卷 1555-1570页

作者： DAI Erfu MA Liang YANG Weishi WANG Yahui YIN Le TONG Miao Lhasa Plateau Ecosystem Research Station Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and ModelingInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China School of Geography and Planning Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China

land change science has become an interdisciplinary research direction for understanding human-natural coupling *** a process-oriented modelling approach,agent based model(ABM)plays an important role in revealing the driving forces of land change and understanding the process of land *** paper starts from three aspects:The theory,application and modeling framework of ***,we summarize the theoretical basis of ABM and introduce some related *** we expound the application and development of ABM in both urban land systems and agricultural land systems,and further introduce the case study of a model on Grain for Green Program in Hengduan Mountainous region,*** the basis of combing the ABM modeling protocol,we propose the land system ABM modeling framework and process from the perspective of *** terms of urban land use,ABM research initially focused on the study of urban expansion based on landscape,then expanded to issues like urban residential separation,planning and zoning,ecological functions,*** terms of agricultural land use,ABM application presents more diverse and individualized *** topics include farmers’behavior,farmers’decision-making,planting systems,agricultural policy,*** to traditional models,ABM is more complex and difficult to generalize beyond specific context since it relies on local knowledge and ***,due to its unique bottom-up model structure,ABM has an indispensable role in exploring the driving forces of land change and also the impact of human behavior on the environment.

关键词： land system land use land change science land change model agent-based model modeling framework

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Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on cropland change

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2016年第3期26卷 339-354页

作者：石晓丽王卫史文娇 College of Resources and Environment Sciences Hebei Normal University Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolvement and Ecological Construction of Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS

It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces were qualitatively studied in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes are needed to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes at quantitative aspects, including model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. Progress of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions was introduced. Then we discussed four defects in the assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. In addition, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Moreover, we concluded a clue about quantitative approach to assess the contributions from synthetically aspect to specific driving forces. Finally, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.

关键词： climate change human activities contributions quantitative cropland pattern

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Observed,Reconstructed,and Simulated Decadal Variability of Summer Precipitation over Eastern China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第1期31卷 49-60页

作者： Jingyun ZHENG Maowei WU Quansheng GE Zhixin HAO Xuezhen ZHANG Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Resources and Environment

Based on observations made during recent decades, reconstructed precipitation for the period A.D. 1736-2000, dry-wet index data for A.D. 500-2000, and a 1000-yr control simulation using the Community Earth System Model with fixed pre-industrial external forcing, the decadal variability of summer precipitation over eastem China is stud- ied. Power spectrum analysis shows that the dominant cycles for the decadal variation of summer precipitation are： 22-24 and quasi-70 yr over the North China Plain; 32-36, 44-48, and quasi-70 yr in the Jiang-Huai area; and 32-36 and 4448 yr in the Jiang-Nan area. Bandpass decomposition from observation, reconstruction, and simulation re- veals that the variability of summer precipitation over the North China Plain, Jiang-Huai area, and Jiang-Nan area, at scales of 20-35, 35-50, and 50-80 yr, is not consistent across the entire millennium. We also find that the warm （cold） phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation generally corresponds to dry （wet） conditions over the North China Plain, but wet （dry） conditions in the Jiang-Nan area, from A.D. 1800, when the PDO became strengthened. However, such a correspondence does not exist throughout the entire last millennium. Data-model comparison sug- gests that these decadal oscillations and their temporal evolution over eastem China, including the decadal shifts in the spatial pattem of the precipitation anomaly observed in the late 1970s, early 1990s, and early 2000s, might result from internal variability of the climate system.

关键词： decadal variability dominant cycle summer precipitation eastern China data-model comparison

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The triggering mechanisms for different types of snow avalanches in the continental snow climate of the central Tianshan Mountains

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第12期65卷 2308-2321页

作者： Jiansheng HAO Peng CUI Xueqin ZHANG Lanhai LI Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences-Higher Education Commission of PakistanIslamabad 45320Pakistan State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Ili Station for Watershed Ecosystem Research Chinese Academy of SciencesXinyuan 835800China

Climate change and human activities have increased avalanche risks in alpine ***,strengthening the research on mitigating and controlling avalanche disasters is indispensable for sustainable socio-economic development in mountainous *** avalanche warning is an essential means of avalanche disaster ***,the theoretical development and application of avalanche warning strategies remain limited due to the lack of systematic understanding of the triggering mechanisms of *** on observational data(2015–2019)of avalanches,snowpack,meteorological parameters,surface soil temperature and moisture,and topography in avalanche-prone areas in the central Tianshan Mountains,we analyzed the characteristics of different types of avalanches under a continental snow climate and the environmental factors(such as meteorological conditions and snowpack)that trigger avalanches,as well as the triggering mechanisms for different types of avalanches under the continental snow climate in terms of snow-layer shear fracture *** found that the snowpack parameters,weather conditions,and soil temperature and moisture varied significantly among the stages of snow accumulation,stabilization,and melting,resulting in different avalanches prevailing in different stages of snowpack ***,the snow-layer fractures were driven by single external factors or the combined multiple factors under the continental snow ***-four percent of the avalanche events in the study area occurred during or after a snowfall,with 36%related to sudden increases in *** considering different triggering scenarios,snowpack evolution stages,and the coupling of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of triggering snow-layer shear failure,we constructed five snow-layer shear fracture modes and twelve avalanche-triggering modes on mountain slopes under a continental snow climate.

关键词： Continental snow climate Avalanche disaster Snow-layer failure Shear fracture modes Avalanche-triggering modes Central Tianshan Mountains

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Earlier peak photosynthesis timing potentially escalates global wildfires

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National Science Review 2024年第09期11卷 171-180页

作者： Gengke Lai Jialing Li Jun Wang Chaoyang Wu Yongguang Zhang Constantin M.Zohner Josep Pe?uelas Quansheng Ge International Institute for Earth System Sciences Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application Nanjing University Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural ResourcesSchool of Geography and Ocean Science Nanjing University The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Huangshan National Park Ecosystem Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of the Ministry of Education Jiangsu International Joint Carbon Neutrality Laboratory Nanjing University Department of Environmental Systems Science Institute of Integrative BiologyETH Zurich CSIC Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB CREAF Cerdanyola del Vallès

More intense fire weather due to climate change is implicated as a key driver of recent extreme wildfire events. As fuel stock, the role of vegetation and its phenology changes in wildfire dynamics, however is not fully appreciated. Using long-term satellite-based burned areas and photosynthesis observations, we reveal that an earlier peak photosynthesis timing(PPT) potentially acts to escalate subsequent wildfires, with an increase in the global average burned fraction of 0.021%(～2.20 Mha) for every additional day of PPT advancement. Satellite observations and Earth System modeling consistently show that this fire escalation is likely due to intensified drought conditions and increased fuel availability associated with the climate feedback arising from earlier PPT. Current fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models can reproduce the observed negative correlation between PPT and burned area but underestimate the strength of the relationship notably. Given the continued PPT advancement owing to climate change, the bioclimatic effects of vegetation phenology change suggest a potentially pervasive upward pressure on future wildfires.

关键词： vegetation photosynthesis phenology wildfire climate feedback Earth System model

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Baseflow Separation and Its Response to Meteorological Drought in a Temperate Water-limited Basin,North China

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Chinese Geographical Science 2021年第5期31卷 867-876页

作者： LIU Qiang YAN Sirui LI Miao MA Kiaojing LIANG Liqiao ZHANG Junlong PAN Jihua State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation School of EnvironmentBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences Ministry of EducationSchool of EnvironmentBeijing Normal UniversitBeijing100875China School of Geography and Tourism Qufu Normal UniversitRizhao 276826China Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China School of Geography and Environment Shandong Normal UniversityJinan 250358China

Baseflow,a component of the total streamflow,plays a key role in maintaining aquatic habitats,particularly during extreme drought *** study investigated baseflow response to a prolonged and extreme meteorological drought event in the Baiyangdian Basin(BYD basin),a temperate water-limited basin in North *** a precipitation series,piecewise regression was used to determine this extreme meteorological drought event,while the Automatic Baseflow Identification Technique(ABIT)was used to estimate a recession parameter(α),which was used to isolate baseflow from total *** showed that:1)annual precipitation exhibited significant decreasing trends(P<0.05)with an average change of–1.81 mm/yr^(2).The precipitation deficit revealed that the start and end date of the extreme meteorological drought event was from August 1996 to May 2011,respectively,persisting for a total of 178 months(roughly 15 yr);2)hydrological drought(including streamflow and baseflow)lagged behind meteorological drought while predictably persisting longer than extreme meteorological drought(i.e.,precipitation);and 3)baseflow decreased dramatically under meteorological drought at both seasonal and annual scales,resulting in significantly decreasing trends during drought *** from this study confirmed that hydrological events caused by extreme meteorological drought can alter the magnitude and duration of baseflow and total streamflow,which will have an inevitable influence on aquatic ecosystems.

关键词： baseflow extreme drought recession parameter Baiyangdian Basin

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Industrial land expansion in rural China threatens environmental securities

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2021年第2期15卷 127-139页

作者： Chi Zhang Wenhui Kuang Jianguo Wu Jiyuan Liu Hanqin Tian Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection Linyi UniversityLinyi 276000China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China School of Life Sciences&School of Sustainability Arizona State UniversityTempeAZ 85287USA International Center for Climate and Global Change Research School of Forestry and Wildlife SciencesAuburn UniversityAuburnAL 36849USA

China’s rural industrialization has been a major driver for its rapid economic growth during the recent decades,but its myriad environmental risks are yet to be fully *** on a comprehensive national land-use data set,our study shows that the area of China’s rural industrial land(RIL)quadrupled during 1990–2015,reaching 39338 km2 in 2015,comparable to urbanization in magnitude but with a much greater degree of landscape fragmentation which implies stronger ecological and environmental *** 91%of the protected areas in the central China were within 50 km from rural industrial land,thus exposed to industrial *** rural industrial land expansion,particularly in regions under high geo-hazard risks,led to dramatically increased environmental risks,threatening the safety and health of both rural industrial workers and ***,negative effects from rural industrial land expansion could partially offset the crop production growth in recent *** underprivileged rural population in the west bears a disproportionally large share of the increased environmental *** urgently needs to design and implement sustainable policies to restrict and reshape its rural *** study aims to inspire policy makers and researchers to rethink the current model of industrial expansion and improve rural industrial land planning,which is important for achieving the sustainable development goals of China.

关键词： Industrialization land-use change Environment risks Environmental security Urbanization China

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Response to Hydrothermal Change of Tree Radial Growth since 1990s in the Southern Taihang Mountains in Hebei Province

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Agricultural Science & Technology 2016年第12期17卷 2826-2827,2833页

作者： Yajun WANG Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences

On the basis of the relationship between tree ring width of Pinus tabulaeformis in the southern Taihang Mountains in Hebei Province and climate factors, such as mean temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature and precipitation, we find that tree-ring width correlates positively and significantly with mean and maximum temperature in March and Spring, and with minimum temperature in March, April, Spring and Autumn. The sampling tree radial growth responds sensitively to spring temperature change.

关键词： Southern Taihang Mountains in Hebei Province Tree radial growth Hydrothermal condition

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Assessing changes in wind erosion climatic erosivity in China＇s dryland region during 1961-2012

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2016年第9期26卷 1263-1276页

作者： YANG Fengbo LU Changhe Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

China＇s dryland region has serious wind erosion problem and is sensitive to climate change due to its fragile ecological condition. Wind erosion climatic erosivity is a measure of climatic factors influencing wind erosion, therefore, evaluation of its intensity and response to recent climate changes can contribute to the understanding of climate change effect on wind erosion risk. Using the FAO equation, GIS and statistical analysis tools, this study quantified the climatic erosivity, analyzed its spatiotemporal variations, and detected the trend and sen- sitivity to climate factors during 1961-2012. The results indicate that mean annual climatic erosivity was 2-166 at 292 stations and 237-471 at 6 stations, with the spatial distribution highly in accordance with wind speed （R^2 = 0.94）. The climatic erosivity varied greatly over time with the annual variation （CV） of 14.7%-108.9% and monthly variation （concentration degree） of 0.10-0.71 in the region. Meanwhile, annual erosivity showed a significant down- ward trend at an annual decreasing rate mostly above 1.0%. This significantly decreasing trend was mainly attributed to the obvious decline of wind speed during the period. The results suggest that the recent climate changes were highly possible to induce a decrease of wind erosion risk in China＇s dryland region.

关键词： wind erosion climatic erosivity trend climate change dryland region China

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Global understanding of farmland abandonment： A review and prospects

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2017年第9期27卷 1123-1150页

作者： LI Shengfa LI Xiubin Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Since the 1950s, noteworthy farmland abandonment has been occurring in many developed countries and some developing countries. This global land use phenomenon has fundamentally altered extensive rural landscapes. A review of global farmland abandonment under the headings of ＂land use change - driving mechanisms - impacts and consequences - policy responses＂ found the following：（1） Farmland abandonment has occurred primarily in developed countries in Europe and North America, but the extent of abandonment has varied significantly. （2） Changing socio-economic factors were the primary driving forces for the farmland abandonment. And land marginalization was the fundamental cause, which was due to the drastic increase of farming opportunity cost, while the direct factor for abandonment was the shrink of agricultural labor forces. （3） Whether to abandon, to what extent and its spatial distributions were finally dependent on integrated effect from the physical conditions, laborer attributes, farming and regional socio-economic conditions at the village, household and parcel scales. With the exception of Eastern Europe, farmland abandonment was more likely to occur in mountainous and hilly areas, due to their unfavorable farming conditions. （4） A study of farmland abandonment should focus on its ecological and environmental effects, while which is more positive or more negative are still in dispute. （5） Increasing agricultural subsidies will be conductive to slowing the rate of farmland abandonment, but this is not the only measure that needs to be implemented. Due to China＇s rapid urbanization, there is a high probability that the rate of abandonment will increase in the near future. However, very little research has focused on this rapid land-use trend in China, and, as a result, there is an inadequate understanding of the dynamic mechanisms and consequences of this phenomenon. This paper concludes by suggesting some future directions for further research in China. The

关键词： farmland abandonment farmland marginalization land-Use and Cover-Change （LUCC） research progress and prospects

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