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SSRN 2023年

作者： Zhuang, Huimin Zhang, Zhao Cheng, Fei Han, Jichong Luo, Yuchuan Zhang, Liangliang Cao, Juan Zhang, Jing He, Bangke Xu, Jialu Tao, Fulu Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Minsitry of Emergency Management Ministry of Education School of National Safety and Emergency Management Beijing Normal University Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Jointly Sponsored by Beijing Normal University Aerospace Information Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing100875 China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Helsinki Finland

Timely and reliable regional crop yield forecasting before harvest is critical for managing climate risk, adjusting agronomic management, and making food trade policy. Although various methods exist for crop yield forecasting, including process-based crop models and machine learning techniques, the potential of integrating these methods for early-season yield forecasts has not been well investigated. In this study, we proposed a hybrid framework for crop yield forecasting that firstly assimilated remote sensing leaf area index and soil moisture into a crop model and then combined the data-assimilated crop model with machine learning techniques to improve the prediction skill further. The proposed framework was demonstrated in winter wheat yield forecasting in the North China Plain during 2009–2015. Results showed that assimilating multi-source data into crop model improved wheat yield predictions significantly, with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) increasing by 0.27 and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) decreasing by 6.12% compared to unassimilated results. Incorporating weather forecasts enabled reliable winter wheat yield forecasts up to 1–3 months in advance (median ACC > 0.79, MAPE © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Soil moisture

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Influence of Vegetation Phenological Carry-Over Effects on Plant Autumn Phenology Under Climate Change

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SSRN 2022年

作者： Yuan, Huanhuan Yan, Jiabao Liu, Ying Peng, Jie Wang, Xiaoyue Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment Nanjing Jiangsu210042 China The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing100871 China State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystems College of Ecology Lanzhou University Lanzhou730000 China

Plant phenology variation is shaped by the complex interplay between current environmental conditions and the legacy effects of biological factors. The interaction of the start and end of the growing season (SOS and EOS) may offset the responses of the phenology change trends to climate change if not specifically accounted for. These interactions among phenological events have been demonstrated to influence phenological processes, but the relative importance of biological and environmental factors on phenological response to climate warming remains untested. Therefore, we used multi-source remote sensing data and empirical approaches to examine the influence of plant phenological carry-over effects on EOS over time and the maximum score of importance in projection for phenological variables (i.e., VIP score) in northern 30°N. Results showed that the most important biological factor was significantly positively correlated with EOS during 1982-2015 (Long-period, LP) and 2001-2018(Short-period, SP) for 40.02% and 11.21% of the study pixels. However, the biological factor underly drive changed from one-year previous EOS to the current year SOS with scarcely influenced by spatial resolution and sensors. Simultaneously, the influence of climate factors on EOS increased especially FRS with a significant (P © 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climate change

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Toxicological Effects and Toxicity Thresholds Of Lolium Perenne L. And Medicago Sativa L. Grown in Nh4+-Contaminated Soil from Ion-Type Rare Earth Mining Areas

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SSRN 2022年

作者： Yang, Huixian Zhou, Jun Fei, Jiasai Ci, Kaidong Li, Demin Fan, Jianbo Wei, Chaoyang Zhou, Jing Key Laboratory of Soil Environment and Pollution Remediation Institute of Soil Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Nanjing210008 China National Engineering and Technology Research Center for Red Soil Improvement Red Soil Ecological Experiment Station Chinese Academy of Sciences Yingtan335211 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China

Revegetation success plays an important role in mine site rehabilitation and environmental management. The process of ion-type rare earths ore leaching would induce NH4+ remaining and affects plants growth in the mining area. In this study, the toxicological effects and potential toxicity thresholds of increasing soil NH4+ concentrations on the growth (14 indicators) of ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) and alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) were investigated by dose-response models. The results show that high NH4+ concentration not only reduces the plant biomass and soluble sugars in leaves but also increases the H2O2 and MDA content, and SOD, POD, and GPX activities in roots. The SOD activities and root dry weight can be adopted as the most NH4+ sensitive biomarkers. Six ecotoxicological endpoints (root dry weight, soluble sugars, proline, H2O2, MDA, and GSH) of ryegrass, eight ecotoxicological endpoints (root dry weight, soluble sugars, proline, MDA, SOD, POD, GPX, and GSH) of alfalfa were selected to determine the thresholds concentrations, indicating that toxicity thresholds of NH4+ concentrations were proposed as 171.9 (EC5), 207.8 (EC10), 286.6 (EC25), 382.3 (EC50) mg kg−1 for ryegrass, and 171.9 (EC5), 193.2 (EC10), 234.7 (EC25), 289.6 (EC50) mg kg−1 for alfalfa. The obtained information on toxicity thresholds and the relation between plant physiological indicators and NH4+ concentrations may be used to assess the suitability of the investigated plants for ecological restoration strategies. © 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Toxicity

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Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Vulnerable Species in Gandaki River Basin,Central Himalayas

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Journal of Resources and Ecology 2022年第2期13卷 173-185页

作者： Raju RAI ZHANG Yili LIU Linshan Paras Bikram SINGH Basanta PAUDEL Bipin Kumar ACHARYA Narendra Raj KHANAL Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Kathmandu Center for Research and Education Chinese Academy of Sciences-Tribhuvan UniversityKathmandu 44613Nepal Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and UtilizationInstitute of ZoologyGuangdong Academy of ScienceGuangzhou 510260China Biodiversity Conservation Society Nepal Lalitpur 44700Nepal Department of Epidemiology School of Public HealthSun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China

Gandaki River Basin(GRB)is an important part of the central Himalayan region,which provides habitat for numerous wild ***,climatic changes are making the habitat in this basin more *** paper aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distributions of habitat changes for two vulnerable species,Himalayan black bear(Ursus thibetanus laniger)and common leopard(Panthera pardus fusca),using the maximum entropy(Max Ent)species distribution *** occurrence locations were used along with several bioclimatic and topographic variables(elevation,slope and aspect)to fit the model and predict the potential distributions(current and future)of the *** results show that the highly suitable area of Himalayan black bear within the GRB currently encompasses around 1642 km^(2)(5.01%area of the basin),which is predicted to increase by 51 km^(2) in the future(2050).Similarly,the habitat of common leopard is estimated as 3999 km^(2)(12.19%of the GRB area),which is likely to increase to 4806 km^(2) in ***,the habitat of Himalayan black bear is predicted to increase in the eastern part(Baseri,Tatopani and north from Bhainse)and to decrease in the eastern(Somdang,Chhekampar),western(Burtibang and Bobang)and northern(Sangboche,Manang,Chhekampar)parts of the study ***,the habitat of common leopard is projected to decrease particularly in the eastern,western and southern parts of the basin,although it is estimated to be extended in the southeastern(Bhainse),western(Harichaur and northern Sandhikhark)and north-western(Sangboche)parts of the *** determine the habitat impact,the environmental variables such as elevation,Bio 15(precipitation seasonality)and Bio 16(precipitation of wettest quarter)highly contribute to habitat change of Himalayan black bear;while Bio 13(precipitation of wettest month)and Bio 15 are the main contributors for common ***,this study predicted that the suitable habita

关键词： climate change habitat change Himalayan black bear(Ursus thibetanus laniger) common leopard(Panthera pardus fusca) Gandaki River Basin

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Simulating runoff generation and its spatial correlation with environmental factors in Sancha River Basin:The southern source of the Wujiang River

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2019年第3期29卷 432-448页

作者： HOU Wenjuan GAO Jiangbo Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS

Runoff generation is an important part of water retention service, and also plays an important role on soil and water retention. Under the background of the ecosystem degradation, which was caused by the vulnerable karst ecosystem combined with human activity, it is necessary to understand the spatial pattern and impact factors of runoff generation in the karst region. The typical karst peak-cluster depression basin was selected as the study area. And the calibrated and verified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was the main techniques to simulate the runoff generation in the typical karst basin. Further, the spatial variability of total/surface/groundwater runoff was analyzed along with the methods of gradient analysis and local regression. Results indicated that the law of spatial difference was obvious, and the total runoff coefficients were 70.0%. The groundwater runoff was rich, about 2–3 times the surface runoff. Terrain is a significant factor contributing to macroscopic control effect on the runoff service, where the total and groundwater runoff increased significantly with the rising elevation and slope. The distribution characteristics of vegetation have great effects on surface runoff. There were spatial differences between the forest land in the upstream and orchard land in the downstream, in turn the surface runoff presented a turning point due to the influence of vegetation. Moreover, the results of spatial overlay analysis showed that the highest value of total and groundwater runoff was distributed in the forest land. It is not only owing to the stronger soil water retention capacity of forest ecosystem, and geologic feature of rapid infiltration in this region, but also reflected the combining effects on the land cover types and topographical features. Overall, this study will promote the development and innovation of ecosystem services fields in the karst region, and further provide a theoretical foundation for ecosystem restoration and reconst

关键词： runoff generation SWAT spatial variation impact factors karst ecosystem

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Climatic and Biotic Controls of Evapotranspiration Across Grassland Ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau

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SSRN 2025年

作者： Peng, Siyuan Yang, Yue Luo, Dengnan Zeng, Xiang Liang, Minqi Tao, Long Zhang, Guangru Li, Pan Liao, Weijie Guo, Qun Cao, Ruochen Li, Yuzhe Zhang, Weirong Hu, Zhongmin Hainan Baoting Tropical Rainforest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station School of Ecology Hainan University Haikou570228 China Department of Geography Faculty of Arts and Sciences Beijing Normal University Zhuhai519087 China Facility of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing100875 China Zhuhai Branch of State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Zhuhai519087 China School of Geography South China Normal University Shipai Campus Guangzhou510631 China School of Atmospheric Sciences Guangdong Province Data Center of Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems Carbon Cycle Sun Yat-sen University Guangdong Zhuhai510245 China Key Lab of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408 China International Institute for Earth System Sciences Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application Nanjing University Jiangsu210023 China Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources School of Geography and Ocean Science Nanjing University Jiangsu210023 China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Study region: The Tibetan Plateau in China, the Third Pole of the *** focus: Accurate descriptions of spatial variation in evapotranspiration (ET) and its components on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are crucial for understanding the dynamics of the regional water cycle and energy balance. However, how various environmental factors affect ET and its components remains unclear. This study addresses this gap using observational data from 14 sites and employing the Shuttleworth-Wallace-Hu (SWH) model to examine the spatial relationships between ET, its components, and underlying *** hydrological insights for the region: The SWH model parameters were optimized using the Monte Carlo method, achieving a satisfactory model performance with an average R² of 0.75. The ratio of transpiration to ET was generally higher in alpine meadows (0.55) than alpine steppes (0.39). Across the TP, precipitation and the leaf area index together shaped spatial variation in ET and transpiration. Precipitation emerged as the primary driver of interannual variation in ET, while the leaf area index strongly regulated the proportion of ET accounted for by transpiration. Furthermore, above aridity index values of 0.73, grassland ecosystems transitioned from water to energy. This finding is significant as it challenges the common application of an aridity index value of 0.65 to distinguish arid from humid regions. It suggests that TP grasslands, with an AI of 0.65-0.73, remain primarily water-limited. © 2025, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Monte Carlo methods

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Global Future Population Exposure to Heatwaves

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SSRN 2023年

作者： Wang, Yuwei Zhao, Na Yin, Xiaozhe Wu, Chaoyang Chen, Mingxing Jiao, Yimeng Yue, Tianxiang State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographic Information Resource Development and Application Nanjing210023 China Department of Environmental Health Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health BostonMA United States Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China

The increasing exposure to extreme heatwaves in urban areas from both climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) effect is posing multiple threats and challenges to human society. Despite a growing number of studies focusing on extreme exposure, research advances are still limited in some aspects like oversimplifies of some inter-individual factors of human exposure, resulting in unreliable and unrealistic estimates of future results. In addition, little research performed comprehensive and fine-resolution global analysis in future scenarios. In this study, we present the first global fine-resolution projection of future changing urban population exposure to heatwaves by 2100 under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) by considering the urban development at global, regional, and national scales. Overall, global urban population exposure to heatwaves is rising under the four SSPs. Temperate and tropical zones predictably have the greatest exposure among all climate zones. Coastal cities are projected to have the greatest exposure, followed closely by cities at low altitudes. Middle-income countries have the lowest exposure and the lowest inequality of exposure among countries. Individual climate effects contributed the most (about 46.4%) to future changes in exposure, followed by the interactive effect between climate and urbanization (about 18.5%). Our results indicate that more attention needs to be paid to policy improvements and sustainable development planning of global coastal cities and some low-altitude cities, especially in low- and high-income countries. Meanwhile, this study also highlights the impact of continued future urban expansion on population exposure to heatwaves. © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climate change

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Holocene vegetation dynamics and abrupt biodiversity shifts in the Zoige Basin, Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

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Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 2025年 675卷

作者： Weihe Ren Xiangqi Zhang Chen Liang Quan Li Feng Qin Guitian Yi College of Geography and Tourism Hengyang Normal University Hengyang 421010 China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Re-sources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China Department of Land Resource and Urban Planning Hebei GEO University Shijiazhuang 050031 China

Understanding vegetation responses to climate change is crucial for evaluating ecosystem resilience in high-altitude regions. This study presents a high-resolution Holocene pollen record (∼9700 years) from XingCo Lake in the Zoige Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We conducted pollen analysis, biome reconstruction, and diversity assessment. key findings include: 1) Pollen records from the Zoige Basin showed a consistent long-term trend of forest decline since the mid-Holocene, with multiple abrupt vegetation shifts. 2) After excluding Cyperaceae pollen, we observed a marked collapse of the Holocene vegetation optimum around 3.5 cal ka BP, aligned with transitions across the eastern Tibetan Plateau. 3) A notable shift in vegetation richness occurred around 2 cal ka BP under stable vegetation and minimal human impact, coinciding with a decoupling of temperature and moisture, and rising temperatures coupled with declining humidity, fostering increased palynological richness. These results suggest that the past vegetation-climate interactions in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and provide a valuable reference for modeling future vegetation responses in alpine ecosystems.

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Evaluation of multidecadal and longer-term temperature changes since 850 CE based on Northern Hemisphere proxy-based reconstructions and model simulations

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第8期63卷 1126-1143页

作者： Jianglin WANG Bao YANG Jingyun ZHENG Xuezhen ZHANG Zhiyuan WANG Miao FANG Feng SHI Jingjing LIU Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Geography and Environmental Science Zhejiang Normal UniversityJinhua 321004China Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resource Chinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Center for Excellence in Life and Paleoenvironment Beijing 100044China

The temperature variability over multidecadal and longer timescales(e.g., the cold epochs in the late 15 th, 17 th, and early 19 th centuries) is significant and dominant in the millennium-long, large-scale reconstructions and model simulations;however, their temporal patterns in the reconstructed and simulated temperature series are not well understood and require a detailed assessment and comparison. Here, we compare the reconstructed and simulated temperature series for the Northern Hemisphere(NH) at multidecadal and longer-term timescales(>30 years) by evaluating their covariance, climate sensitivity and amplitude of temperature changes. We found that covariances between different reconstructions or between reconstructions and simulations are generally high for the whole period of 850–1999 CE, due to their similar long-term temporal patterns. However,covariances between different reconstructions or between reconstructions and simulations steadily decline as time series extends further back in time, becoming particularly small during Medieval times. This is related to the large uncetainties in the reconstructions caused by the decreased number of proxy records and sample duplication during the pre-instrumental *** based solely on tree-ring data show higher skill than multiproxy reconstructions in capturing the amplitude of volcanic cooling simulated by models. Meanwhile, climate models have a shorter recovery(i.e., lag) in response to the cooling caused by volcanic eruptions and solar activity minima, implying the lack of some important feedback mechanisms between external forcing and internal climate processes in climate models. Amplitudes of temperature variations in the latest published tree-ring reconstructions are comparable to those of the multiproxy reconstructions. We found that the temperature difference between the Medieval Climate Anomaly(950–1250 CE) and the Little Ice Age(1450–1850 CE) is generally larger in proxybased reconstruct

关键词： Temperature changes Multidecadal and longer-term variability Northern Hemisphere Last millennium

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Cropland redistribution to marginal lands undermines environmental sustainability

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National Science Review 2022年第1期9卷 66-78页

作者： Wenhui Kuang Jiyuan Liu Hanqin Tian Hao Shi Jinwei Dong Changqing Song Xiaoyong Li Guoming Du Yali Hou Dengsheng Lu Wenfeng Chi Tao Pan Shuwen Zhang Rafiq Hamdi Zherui Yin Huimin Yan Changzhen Yan Shixin Wu Rendong Li Jiuchun Yang Yinyin Dou Wenbin Wu Liqiao Liang Bao Xiang Shiqi Yang Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences International Center for Climate and Global Change Research School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences Auburn University Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences School of Public Administration and Law Northeast Agricultural University School of Geographical Sciences Fujian Normal University School of Resources and Environmental Economics Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics School of Geography and Tourism Qufu Normal University Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of Sciences Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory for Resources Use & Environmental Remediation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences Hubei Province’s Key Laboratory for Environment & Disaster Monitoring and Evaluation Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Ecology Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences College of Environment and Planning Henan University

Cropland redistribution to marginal land has been reported worldwide;however,the resulting impacts on environmental sustainability have not been investigated *** we investigated the environmental impacts of cropland redistribution in *** a result of urbanization-induced loss of high-quality croplands in south China(～8.5 t ha-1),croplands expanded to marginal lands in northeast(～4.5 t ha-1) and northwest China(～2.9 t ha-1) during 1990-2015 to pursue food ***,the reclamation in these low-yield and ecologically vulnerable zones considerably undermined local environmental sustainability,for example increasing wind erosion（+3.47%）,irrigation water consumption（+34.42%）,fertilizer use（+20.02%） and decreasing natural habitats（-3.11%）.Forecasts show that further reclamation in marginal lands per current policies would exacerbate environmental costs by *** future cropland security risk will be remarkably intensified because of the conflict between food production and environmental *** research suggests that globally emerging reclamation of marginal lands should be restricted and crop yield boost should be encouraged for both food security and environmental benefits.

关键词： cropland redistribution environmental sustainability marginal lands wind erosion irrigation water consumption

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