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Could CMIP6 climate models reproduce the early-2000s global warming slowdown?

science China Earth sciences 2021年第6期64卷 853-865页

作者： Meng WEI Qi SHU Zhenya SONG Yajuan SONG Xiaodan YANG Yongqing GUO Xinfang LI Fangli QIAO First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao266237China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Qingdao266061China Marine Science and Technology College Zhejiang Ocean UniversityZhoushan316000China

The unexpected global warming slowdown during 1998–2013 challenges the existing scientific understanding of global temperature change mechanisms,and thus the simulation and prediction ability of state-of-the-art climate models since most models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5)cannot simulate ***,we examine whether the new-generation climate models in CMIP6 can reproduce the recent global warming slowdown,and further evaluate their capacities for simulating key-scale natural variabilities which are the most likely causes of the *** results show that although the CMIP6 models present some encouraging improvements when compared with CMIP5,most of them still fail to reproduce the warming *** considerably overestimate the warming rate observed in 1998–2013,exhibiting an obvious warming acceleration rather than the observed *** is probably associated with their deficiencies in simulating the distinct temperature change signals from the human-induced long-term warming trend and/or the three crucial natural variabilities at interannual,interdecadal,and multidecadal *** contrast,the 4 models that can successfully reproduce the slowdown show relatively high skills in simulating the long-term warming trend and the three keyscale natural *** work may provide important insight for the simulation and prediction of near-term climate changes.

关键词： CMIP6 climate models Global warming Global warming slowdown Hiatus Climate natural variability Anthropogenic warming trend

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Sensitivity of the half-life time of water exchange in coastal waters

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science China Earth sciences 2019年第4期62卷 643-656页

作者： Zhenhua CHEN Fangli QIAO Gang WANG Changshui XIA The First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling (MASNUM) State Oceanic Administration

A three-dimensional model was established to investigate water exchange in coastal waters, and applied to Qinzhou Bay(QZB) in the South China Sea. Given the strong tidal current in QZB, a half-life time was calculated for water exchange by filtering the tidal signal from the concentrations of a conservative substance. In a control run driven by the tide, without external inputs and an open boundary concentration of zero, it was estimated that the average half-life time in QZB was 54.8 d. numerical experiments showed that wind accounted for an 11.9% reduction in the half-life time to 48.3 d. When rivers were included in the model, the half-life time decreased by 74.6% to 13.9 d. Sensitivity experiments showed that the half-life time for water exchange was greatly affected by the concentration of the conservative substance which was used at the open boundary. In response to 10,20, 30, and 40% increases in the boundary concentration, the half-life time increased to 91.5, 168.3, 186.2, and 229.1 d,respectively. Results also suggested that for coastal bays with large intertidal areas such as QZB, consideration of the wet and dry processes produced more accurate simulations of the hydrodynamics and the half-life times. Simulations, which did not incorporate wet and dry processes, were more than likely to have overestimated or underestimated the half-life times for water exchange.

关键词： Sensitivity Convection-diffusion model Water exchange Half-life time Qinzhou Bay South China Sea

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On the accumulative contribution of CO_2 emission from China to global climate change

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science China Earth sciences 2016年第11期59卷 2202-2212页

作者： BAO Ying QIAO FangLi SONG ZhenYa First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Key Lab of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic Administration

A study of the contribution to global climate change from China's CO_2 emission is conducted using the FIO-ESM v1.0 climate model. A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to identify two kinds of contributions to global climate change of China's CO_2 emission due to fossil fuel combustion: one is the pure contribution which is the historical climate response from the sensitivity experiment forced only by China's CO_2 emission, the other is the accumulative contribution which is proposed in this research and defined as the difference of historical climate responses between the experiments forced by all countries' CO_2 emission and other countries' CO_2 emission excluding China. The pure contribution approach considers the total CO_2 discharged by China, while the accumulative contribution approach considers not only the discharge amount of China but also the discharge order of China and other countries. The latter is a more realistic approach to quantify the contribution of CO_2 emission to the historical change of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, surface air temperature(SAT), sea surface temperature(SST) and sea ice coverage in the Arctic. Model results show that from the accumulative perspective, the ratio of the contribution of CO_2 emission from China for the increase of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, SAT and SST, and the decrease of the sea ice coverage in the Arctic to that from all other countries excluding China varies from 8% to 92%, 5% to 95%, 9% to91% and 18% to 82%, respectively. Here we take the contribution of China's CO_2 emission as an example, the contribution of CO_2 emission from any other country or area can be evaluated by the same approach.

关键词： Accumulative contribution Pure contribution Climate model CO_2 emission

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Seasonal characteristics and forcing mechanisms of the surface Kuroshio branch intrusion into the South China Sea

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2019年第1期38卷 13-21页

作者： Jingsong Guo Zhixin Zhang Changshui Xia Binghuo Guo Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling First Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural Resources Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory of Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)

Using observational data of Argos satellite-tracked drifters from 1988 to 2012, we analyzed seasonal characteristics of the surface Kuroshio branch(KB) intrusion into the South China Sea(SCS). The analysis results are as *** surface KB originates from the southern Balintang Channel(BLTC) and Babuyan Channel(BBYC). It begins in late September, reaches peak strength in November–December, and declines at the end of March. The mean speed of drifters along the KB path during their traverse of the Luzon Strait(LS) was 43% faster than during the two days before entering the LS for the flow originating from the southern BLTC, but there was a 24% increase in speed for the flow from the BBYC. The observations show that in winter, monthly-mean sea-level anomalies(SLAs) were positive southwest of Taiwan Island and extended to the northern LS. The SLAs were negative northwest of Luzon Island and extended to the southern LS, which acted like a pump, forcing a part of Kuroshio water westward into the SCS. The condition under which the KB forms was solved by a set of simplified motion equations. The results indicate that whether the KB can form depends upon the sea-level gradient at the central LS and region to the west, as well as the location, speed and direction of Kuroshio surface water when it enters the LS.

关键词： surface Kuroshio branch Luzon Strait forcing mechanisms

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Simulations and Projections of Winter Sea Ice in the Barents Sea by CMIP6 Climate Models

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2023年第12期40卷 2318-2330页

作者： Rongrong PAN Qi SHU Zhenya SONG Shizhu WANG Yan HE Fangli QIAO First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Qingdao 266061China

Dramatic changes in the sea ice characteristics in the Barents Sea have potential consequences for the weather and climate systems of mid-latitude continents,Arctic ecosystems,and fisheries,as well as Arctic maritime *** and projections of winter sea ice in the Barents Sea based on the latest 41 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)are investigated in this *** show that most CMIP6 models overestimate winter sea ice in the Barents Sea and underestimate its decreasing *** discrepancy is mainly attributed to the simulation bias towards an overly weak ocean heat transport through the Barents Sea Opening and the underestimation of its increasing *** methods of observation-based model selection and emergent constraint were used to project future winter sea ice changes in the Barents *** indicate that sea ice in the Barents Sea will continue to decline in a warming climate and that a winter ice-free Barents Sea will occur for the first time during 2042-2089 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585(SSP5-8.5).Even in the observation-based selected models,the sensitivity of winter sea ice in the Barents Sea to global warming is weaker than observed,indicating that a winter ice-free Barents Sea might occur earlier than projected by the CMIP6 simulations.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Barents Sea ocean heat transport sea ice projection CMIP6

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Characteristics and temporal variations of near-bottom currents near the Dongsha Island in the northern South China Sea

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2019年第4期38卷 80-89页

作者： Dawei Li Zexun Wei Yonggang Wang Shujiang Li Tengfei Xu Guanlin Wang Fei Teng Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling First Institute of OceanographyMinistry of Natural Resources Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)

Near-bottom currents play important roles in the formation and dynamics of deep-water sedimentary *** study examined the characteristics and temporal variations of near-bottom currents, especially the tidal components, based on two campaigns(2014 and 2016) of in situ observations conducted southeast of the Dongsha Island in the South China Sea. Results demonstrated near-bottom currents are dominated by tidal currents, the variance of which could account for ～70% of the total current variance. Diurnal tidal currents were found stronger than semidiurnal currents for both barotropic and baroclinic components. The diurnal tidal currents were found polarized with predominantly clockwise-rotating constituents, whereas the clockwise and counterclockwise constituents were found comparable for semidiurnal tidal currents. It was established that diurnal tidal currents could induce strong current shear. Baroclinic tidal currents showed pronounced seasonal variation with large magnitude in winter and summer and weak magnitude in spring and autumn in 2014. The coherent components accounted for ～65% and ～50% of the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal current variances,respectively. The proportions of the coherent and incoherent components changed little in different seasons. In addition to tidal currents, it was determined that the passing of mesoscale eddies could induce strong nearbottom currents that have considerable influence on the deep circulation.

关键词： tidal currents South China Sea near-bottom currents mesoscale eddies

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A study of intra-seasonal variations in the subsurface water temperatures in the South China Sea

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2019年第4期38卷 97-105页

作者： Zhan Lian Baonan Sun Zexun Wei Yonggang Wang Xinyi Wang Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling First Institute of OceanographyMinistry of Natural Resources Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)

Through analysis of the results of a verified high-fidelity numerical model, the intra-seasonal variations(ISVs) in the depth of the 22°C isotherm(D22) in the South China Sea(SCS) basin are investigated. The results show that the ISVs in the D22 exhibit distinct seasonality in the SCS. The ISVs in the D22 are quite significant, especially within a band along the northwestern boundary of the basin and at the southern end of the basin during boreal winter. In these areas, the ratio of the standard deviations(STDs) of intra-seasonal band to the STDs of total data could exceed 0.6. Although the ISVs in the D22 are detectable in the area affected by the Vietnam Offshore Current during boreal summer and autumn, these variations are sometimes overwhelmed by oscillations with other frequencies. An analysis of the causes of the ISVs in the D22 in the SCS indicates that sea surface fluxes and wind stirring are not the dominant external driving mechanisms of the phenomena described above. The ISVs in the D22 are thought to be induced mainly by the thermodynamic adjustment of the ocean itself and the associated instabilities. The energy of the northern and southern bands that display strong ISVs in the D22 may be derived from eddy kinetic energy, rather than eddy available potential energy. The diversity of the propagation of the ISVs in the D22 is very conspicuous within these two bands.

关键词： intra-seasonal variations depth of 22°C isotherm South China Sea

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Seasonal variation of mesoscale eddy intensity in the global ocean

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第1期43卷 48-58页

作者： Yongcan Zu Yue Fang Shuangwen Sun Libao Gao Yang Yang Guijun Guo First Institute of Oceanography/Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Laoshan LaboratoryQingdao 266237China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Qingdao 266061China

Mesoscale eddies are a prominent oceanic phenomenon that plays an important role in oceanic mass transport and energy *** by rotational speed,the eddy intensity is one of the most fundamental properties of an ***,the seasonal spatiotemporal variation in eddy intensity has not been examined from a global ocean *** this study,we unveil the seasonal spatiotemporal characteristics of eddy intensity in the global ocean by using the latest satellite-altimetry-derived eddy trajectory data *** results suggest that the eddy intensity has a distinct seasonal variation,reaching a peak in spring while attaining a minimum in autumn in the Northern Hemisphere and the opposite in the Southern *** seasonal variation of eddy intensity is more intense in the tropical-subtropical transition zones within latitudinal bands between 15°and 30°in the western Pacific Ocean,the northwestern Atlantic Ocean,and the eastern Indian Ocean because baroclinic instability in these areas changes *** analysis found that the seasonal variation of baroclinic instability precedes the eddy intensity by a phase of 2–3 months due to the initial perturbations needing time to grow into mesoscale eddies.

关键词： seasonal variation mesoscale eddy intensity baroclinic instability global ocean

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Accuracy assessment of global vertical displacement loading tide models for the equatorial and Indian Ocean

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第9期43卷 11-25页

作者： Xiaoqing Xu Haidong Pan Fei Teng Zexun Wei First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao Marine Science and Technology CenterQingdao 266237China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Qingdao 266061China

The three-dimensional displacements caused by ocean loading effects are significant enough to impact spatial geodetic measurements on sub-daily or longer timescales,particularly in the vertical ***,most tide models incorporate the distribution of vertical displacement loading tides;however,their accuracy has not been assessed for the equatorial and Indian Ocean *** Positioning System(GPS)observations provide high-precision data on sea-level changes,enabling the assessment of the accuracy and reliability of vertical displacement tide ***,because the tidal period of the K_(2) constituent is almost identical to the orbital period of GPS constellations,the estimation of the K_(2) tidal constituent from GPS observations is not *** this study,the principle of smoothness is employed to correct the systematic error in K_(2) estimates in GPS observations through quadratic *** the adjusted harmonic constants from 31 GPS stations for the equatorial and Indian Ocean,the accuracy of eight major constituents from five global vertical displacement tide models(FES2014,EOT11a,GOT4.10c,GOT4.8,and NAO.99b)is evaluated for the equatorial and Indian *** results indicate that the EOT11a and FES2014 models exhibit higher accuracy in the vertical displacement tide models for the equatorial and Indian Ocean,with root sum squares errors of 2.29 mm and 2.34 mm,***,a brief analysis of the vertical displacement tide distribution characteristics of the eight major constituents for the equatorial and Indian Ocean was conducted using the EOT11a model.

关键词： accuracy assessment vertical displacement loading tide models tidal admittance equatorial and Indian Ocean GPS constellation

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Validation and error analysis of wave-modifi ed ocean surface currents in the northwestern Pacifi c Ocean

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2022年第4期40卷 1289-1303页

作者： Zhenli HUI Ying LI Jia SUN Long YU Xia JU Xuejun XIONG First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Qingdao 266237China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Qingdao 266061China

By incorporating the wave-induced Coriolis-Stokes forcing into the classical Ekman layer,the wave-modifi ed ocean surface currents in the northwestern Pacifi c Ocean were ***,the ocean surface currents are the combination of classical Ekman current from the cross-calibrated multi-platform(CCMP)wind speed,geostrophic current from the mean absolute dynamic topography(MADT),and wave-induced current based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Interim Re-Analysis(ERA-Interim)surface wave *** functions are introduced in the Ekman current formulation as *** with in-situ data from Lagrangian drifters in the study area and Kuroshio Extension Observatory(KEO)observations at 32.3°N,144.6°E,and 15-m depth indicate that wave-modifi ed ocean surface currents provide accurate time means of zonal and meridional currents in the northwestern Pacifi c *** shows that the wave-modifi ed currents are quite consistent with the Lagrangian drifter observations for the period 1993-2017 in the deep *** correlation(root mean square error,RMSE)is 0.96(1.45 cm/s)for the zonal component and 0.90(1.07 cm/s)for the meridional ***,wave-modifi ed currents underestimate the Lagrangian drifter velocity in strong current and some off shore regions,especially in the regions along the Japan coast and the southeastern ***’s more,the wave-modifi ed currents overestimate the pure Eulerian KEO current which does not consider the impact of waves,and the zonal(meridional)correlation and RMSE are 0.95(0.90)and 11.25 cm/s(12.05 cm/s)*** comparisons demonstrate that our wave-modifi ed ocean surface currents have high precision and can describe the real-world ocean in the northwestern Pacifi c Ocean accurately and intuitively,which can provide important routes to calculate ocean surface currents on large spatial scales.

关键词： ocean surface current Ekman current geostrophic current Stokes drift

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