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Electricity price forecasting based on GARCH model in deregulated market

Electricity price forecasting based on GARCH model in deregu...

引用

7th International power Engineering Conference, IPEC2005

作者： Zheng, Hua Xie, Li Zhang, Li-Zi Electricity Market Research Institute North China Electric Power University Beijing 102206 China Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Beijing 102206 China

ISBN: (纸本)9810544693

Since electricity market came into being, it has been generalized in many countries. In the research field of electricity market, electricity price has been one of the focused problems, which has great influence on the market. And then electricity price forecasting as a basic information tool to analyze the near future market, becomes more important than before. However, in such a competitive environment, the changes of electricity price are so volatile, even price spikes happened. So electricity price forecasting becomes more difficult. To solve above problem, we build a novel model to forecast electricity price based on GARCH (that is generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity), which fits for volatility modeling. First, electricity price is regarded as finance time series and analyze its volatility, which explains the presence of heteroskedasticity. Then price forecasting is proposed with GARCH model, which aims at modeling the dynamic character of price. Case studies testify the validity of the proposed model.

关键词： Electric rates

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Analysis and Design of H ∞ controller in VSC HVDC Systems

Analysis and Design of H ∞ Controller in VSC HVDC Systems

引用

IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition: Asia and Pacific

作者： Haifeng Liang Gengyin Li Guangkai Li Peng Li Ming Yin Electric Power University Baoding Hebei China Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education Baoding China Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education China

Through the analysis on voltage source converter (VSC) equations in dq0 coordinate system, the state space equation of the generalized plant is gained. By use of H infin theory, constant DC voltage H infin controller and constant AC voltage controller are designed. On the basis of establishing MATLAB simulation model for transmitting power to passive network via VSC-HVDC system, the simulation of control modes, such as constant DC voltage control, constant AC voltage control and constant reactive power control, is conducted. Simulation results show that the proposed controller can meet the need of supplying power to passive network and the control modes are effective

关键词： control systems HVDC transmission Voltage control Converters power conversion Equations Passive networks State-space methods MATLAB Mathematical model

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Integrating radial basis function neural network with fuzzy control for load forecasting in power system

Integrating radial basis function neural network with fuzzy ...

引用

2005 IEEE/PES Transmission and DistributionConference and Exhibition - Asia and Pacific

作者： Sheng, Siqing Wang, Cong Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Baoding 071003 Hebei Provinece China School of Electrical Engineering North China Electrical Power University Baoding Hebei 071003 China

ISBN: (纸本)0780391144

Short-term load forecasting of power system is not only the basis of scheduling of generating sets, but also the basis of working out the transaction schedule in electricity market. This paper proposes a short-term load forecasting method based on combination of Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network and fuzzy control, uses on-line self-modify factor fuzzy control to eliminate forecast error on the basis of RBF neural network forecasting. The practical examples show that the accuracy of short-term load forecasting and training speed can be improved and gains the very satisfactory results by the proposed method. © 2005 IEEE.

关键词： Electric load forecasting

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A new ultra high-speed protection scheme based on wavelet analysis

A new ultra high-speed protection scheme based on wavelet an...

引用

7th International power Engineering Conference, IPEC2005

作者： Yang, Ming-Yu Yao, Wan-Ye Wang, Zeng-Ping Zhang, Ju Jiao, Yan-Jun Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Baoding 071003 Hebei Province China Automation Department North China Electric Power University Baoding 071003 Hebei Province China

ISBN: (纸本)9810544693

A new ultra high-speed protection scheme is proposed in this paper. Using wavelet transform with multiresolution analysis, the current signals is decomposed into a series of detailed wavelet components. The spectral energies of the wavelet components are calculated and then employed to detect the faults. Characteristics of the proposed ultra high-speed protection algorithm are analyzed and results of simulation studies are given. The results show that the proposed algorithm is promising and easy to implement for computer relaying application.

关键词： Electric power system protection

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Condition-based maintenance of electrical equipments based on ID3 algorithm and Monte Carlo stimulation

Condition-based maintenance of electrical equipments based o...

引用

2005 IEEE/PES Transmission and DistributionConference and Exhibition - Asia and Pacific

作者： Li, Ran Chen, Li Gu, Xueping Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education North China Electric PowerPower University Baoding 071003 Hebei Province China Department of Electrical Engineering North China Electric Power University North China Electric Power University

ISBN: (纸本)0780391144

Condition-Based Maintenance is an advanced maintenance strategy which is based on the monitoring of equipments status and according to the results of monitoring and analysis people can arrange maintenance scientifically. When monitoring and analyzing the status of equipments, there are vast historical and on-line data to analyze. If we can find the main factors leading to equipment failure through analyzing the data and pay more attention to these factors, we can make maintenance decision more exactly and quickly. In this paper we propose to apply ID3 Algorithm to classify the data according to the importance of their influence to equipment failure and then find the factors which influence equipments most. After finding the most important factors, apply Monte Carlo Simulation to forecast the probability of equipment failure which occurs in their operational life span, and according to this we can pay more attention to monitor the factors which result in failure easily. © 2005 IEEE.

关键词： Electric equipment

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Synthetic quantitative assessment of power quality in competition market environment

Synthetic quantitative assessment of power quality in compet...

引用

IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition: Asia and Pacific

作者： Yonghai Xu Lei Chen Xiangning Xiao Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education Beijing China

A new method, which integrates the virtue of the probability and mathematical statistics with that of the fuzzy mathematics for power quality assessment, is proposed in this paper. The index showing an aspect of power quality is evaluated using probability and mathematical statistics respectively; the global unique index of these indexes can be obtained. The results obtained from each index unified are unified again using fuzzy synthetic appraisal in order to give an objective, overall and unique index of power quality. The special assessment method for voltage sag using the average sag energy index is also discussed. Finally, a transaction mode makes the maximum benefits for different unit commitment as objective function and takes the power quality into account is presented, and then power energy really becomes a commodity which would be evaluated a price according to power quality

关键词： power quality Voltage fluctuations Probability Statistics Mathematics power system harmonics Appraisal Algebra power markets power system economics

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power quality control center and its control method

Power quality control center and its control method

引用

2005 IEEE/PES Transmission and DistributionConference and Exhibition - Asia and Pacific

作者： Li, Peng Bai, Qian Zhao, Baoli Yang, Yihan Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Baoding 071003 Hebei Province China Baoding Baoling Iranstornier Co. Ltd. Baoding Hebei Province China

ISBN: (纸本)0780391144

power quality becomes an emphasis of related researches. Based on the detailed study on QCC (Quality control Center) of the FRIENDS first advanced by Japanese scholars, the functions of QCC are expanded and Its basic types and structures are defined. Meanwhile, by detailed study, this paper introduces the multiple adjusting functions of UPQC (Unified power Quality Conditioner) which is the chief part of QCC and presents its typical topological circuit. Moreover, H∞control technology is used to realize the synthesis tracking compensation of voltage and current for UPQC. Finally its validity has been testified successfully. © 2005 IEEE.

关键词： power control

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Monte Carlo simulation based available transmission capability calculation

Monte Carlo simulation based available transmission capabili...

引用

2005 IEEE/PES Transmission and DistributionConference and Exhibition - Asia and Pacific

作者： Gao, Yajing Zhou, Ming Li, Gengyin Huang, Yuekui Xiao, Limin Li, Rui IEEE Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Baoding 071003 Hebei Province China Hebei Electric Power Company Shijiazhuang 050021 Hebei Province China

ISBN: (纸本)0780391144

With the further development of power markets, large amount of electric power wheeling and frequent transmission transaction is emerging, accurately determining Available Transmission Capability (ATC) and broadcasting the ATC information in time are very important to prevent and relieve transmission congestion effectively. In practical power markets, there are large amount of uncertainties involved in Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM) and Capacity Benefit Margin (CBM) of ATC. Considering calculation accuracy and time, a novel approach is proposed to calculate ATC based on Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis considering large amount of uncertainties impacting the value of ATC. The steady state constraints and voltage stability and transient stability constraints are taken into account. The iterative solution based on PSASP by China EPRI is developed. IEEE 14-bus test system is used to verify the presented approach. The results show that the model and algorithm is correct and effective. The research achievements are undergoing to transfer to the application in certain provincial power system in China, and some new problems are suggested in the end of paper. © 2005 IEEE.

关键词： power transmission

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power quality disturbance detection based on mathematical morphology and fractal technique

Power quality disturbance detection based on mathematical mo...

引用

2005 IEEE/PES Transmission and DistributionConference and Exhibition - Asia and Pacific

作者： Li, Gengyin Zhou, Ming Luo, Yan Ni, Yixin IEEE Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Baoding 071003 Hebei Province China Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong

ISBN: (纸本)0780391144

Based on mathematical morphology and grille fractal, a novel approach on power quality disturbance detection and location is presented in this paper. At first a parallel composite morphological filter with multiple-structure elements is designed to filter the random noise and impulse noise in power quality disturbance signals. Then to the filtered curves, an easy implementation criterion for singularity detection based on the change regularity of grille fractal is proposed to locate the start and end time that disturbance occurs. The voltage sag, swell, harmonic and their combined disturbances are used to verify the validity of the proposed filter-location approach. Numerical results show that the proposed approach is valid and effective. © 2005 IEEE.

关键词： Electric power distribution

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Risk management on long-term electricity purchase allocation in China power markets

Risk management on long-term electricity purchase allocation...

引用

Sixth International Conference on power Electronics and Drive Systems, PEDS 2005

作者： Zhou, Ming Li, Gengyin Nie, Yanli Ni, Yixin Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control under Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Baoding 071003 Hebei Province China Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong

ISBN: (纸本)0780392965

This paper presents an integrated framework for the optimal management of electricity purchase allocation and risk for load service entities (LSEs). To the practice of China power Markets, we propose the framework of power portfolio of combined physical forward contract and spot market. The framework suggests that the forward contracts should have different prices on-peak and off-peak in accord with sale prices distinguish on-peak and off-peak. The optimal purchase problem is described by the utility maximum integrated the rate of return and risk tolerance level, and risk is evaluated by Value at Risk (VaR). The analytical solution is also conducted. The numerical results are reasonable with higher rate of return and better risk hedging compared with the corresponding results from the existing portfolio selection approach. The presented framework gives one possible and effective method for the optimal power portfolio and risk management in incomplete power markets. © 2005 IEEE.

关键词： Risk management

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